2010 SEC Preview

Southeastern Conference Preview
By Marc Lawrence

When it comes to determining college football's next national champion, one would be wise to peruse the SEC before casting a vote.

Winning four national titles in a row and five of the last seven, the SEC might have padded the numbers even more had Auburn caught a break in 2004.

But, as Pete Fiutak of College Football News.com reminds us, "of the five recent national champions from the SEC, only Alabama of last year was able to get through clean."

So while saddling up with an SEC team to make it the BCS title game would appear to be the high percentage play, the tougher question is ‘who'.

Five different teams have captured the SEC championship game the last six years, with only Florida winning twice.

And speaking of the Gators, the Tim Tebow era ends, and the John Brantley era begins, in Gainseville in 2010. We'll soon learn whether Florida's 48 wins the past four seasons was more a factor of Tebow or head coach Urban Meyer. (UF won nine games in Meyer's first year at the helm in 2005).

Regardless, the fact remains the SEC has won more BCS bowl games (14) than any conference and until another another steps up and says otherwise, they remain SECond to none.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On' and ‘Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

East Division

FLORIDA – 6 / 5

TEAM THEME: TIM 1:70

The only Division 1 team to ever win 13 games in consecutive seasons has lost its leader. The Tim Tebow era has come to an end but not before the chosen one leaves with a 170.8 career passer rating, which ranks No. 1 all-time in the SEC and No. 2 in CFB history. QB John Brantley, a more conventional passer, steps in and he'll be surrounded with the team's top four RB's who combined to rush for nearly 2,000 yards last season. Most important, Urban Meyer is back, insisting there is no truth to the rumor that his leave of absence is coming in 6-hour increments. Only 11 starters return from last year's squad as nine Gators were gobbled up by the NFL draft – the most of any school this season. Meyer will also have to replace DC Charlie Strong – the fifth assistant under Meyer to be hired as a head coach. We'll give you one guess where GameDay will be on October 2!

PLAY ON: as dog vs. Alabama (10/2)

GEORGIA – 10 / 5

TEAM THEME: A LEG UP

Despite a down season, an Independence Bowl win over Texas A&M gave the Bulldogs their 13th straight season of eight or more wins – extending the longest such streak in the nation. To keep that skein intact, the Dawgs will need to keep from losing the yardage battle – which was the case a surprising seven of 13 times in 2009. As a result, three new defensive coaches are aboard. Special teams is one area where Mark Richt shouldn't have any concerns. P Drew Butler, the 2009 Ray Guy award winner, is back. So is PK Blair Walsh, a finalist for the Lou Groza award. A soft non-conference slate along with a favorable SEC road schedule (Richt is 33-6 in true road games, including an amazing 11-3 vs. ranked opponents) should have these Bulldogs, once again, ‘kicking' butt in 2010.

PLAY ON: vs. Kentucky (10/23)

KENTUCKY – *5 / 7

TEAM THEME: OPERATION WHAT?

New HC Joker Phillips has begun a plan called ‘Operation Win.' To which we say, "Huh?" After all, the Wildcats have won seven-plus games each of the last four years for the first time since 1909-1912 and have gone bowling four straight years for the first time in school history. In fact, the 2009 seniors have recorded the most wins in Kentucky lore since the 1950 class, including a victory at Georgia last year – the Wildcats first win ‘Between the Hedges' in over 20 years. Kudos to veteran Rich Brooks who retires with peace of mind knowing he masterminded the aforementioned milestones. Seven starters are back on defense and the QB position is in good hands with the return of Morgan Newton and former starter Mike Hartline. With three of the last four seasons ending in bowl wins, our advice to Phillips is simple: Keep winning – or the laughing stops in Lexington. No Joke.

PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Louisville (9/4)

SOUTH CAROLINA – *8 / 7

TEAM THEME: ROUTE 666

While a trio of six-loss seasons the last three years is hardly impressive, the 68 wins that the Gamecocks posted this past decade were the most in school history. It's a good thing for the ol' ball coach that 99% of his team's passing yards, 93% of their rushing yards and 83% of their receiving yards return from a year ago as his Gamecocks face the toughest schedule in Division 1 this year – despite hosting seven contests. Eleven winning foes dot the 2010 docket, including 10 bowlers. Even its six home games versus FBS foes find no cupcakes, as all six went bowling while combining for a 53-26 record in 2009. QB Stephen Garcia, the SEC active leader in total yards and passing yards, is back for the challenge but he'll have to improve on his 8-8 mark as a starter if these Columbia ‘Cocks want to hit the alleys for the fifth time in six years.

PLAY ON: as dog vs. Georgia (9/11)

TENNESSEE – 5 / 6

TEAM THEME: AS THE VOLS TURN

The soap opera has left town. Lane Kiffin is out after a one-year stand in Knoxville but, truth be told, nary a tear was shed. It's now Derek Dooley's show. The son of legendary coach, Vince, and most recently the sideline boss at Louisiana Tech, looks to rebuild a once proud program. "Everything we're going to do is going to be a foundation of integrity in every aspect of the program… I'm excited about what the future holds for Tennessee, " says Dooley. The loss of 11 starters, including star CB Eric Berry, may keep the ratings down in Season One but winning runs deep in the Dooley family tree. Dooley's run-first philosophy may also miss prime time with the departure of Montario Hardesty. It may take some time but we have a suspicion Dooley and the Vols will be a long-running hit.

PLAY ON: as dog vs. Alabama (10/23)

VANDERBILT – *7 / 5

TEAM THEME: THANK GOD FOR EMU'S

A tough season-opening four-game itinerary against four bowlers is only the tip of the iceberg for the Commies in 2010. They must deal with no less than 10 bowl teams this campaign, and another that will dress up as a ‘Mission Team' (Wake Forest). To make matters worse, bad news came out of spring camp when DT Adam Smotherman, a vital cog on a leaky defense last year, blew out his knee. JUCO transfer QB Jordan Rodgers, the brother of Green Bay signal-caller Aaron, is expected to battle Larry Smith, who started nine games last season, for the starting job. Thirty-six sophomores and red-shirt freshman, including SEC Freshman of the Year, RB/KR Warren Norman, will see plenty of time as HC Bobby Johnson rebuilds from the ground up. Our advice for Bobby: with wins looking hard to come by, make 0-12 Eastern Michigan the homecoming opponent!

PASS

West Division

ALABAMA – *8 / 2

TEAM THEME: ELEPHANT SEASON

SEC opponents will be trading in their snatch hooks for double rifles now that the defending national champs replace the Gators as the team to beat this season. How good was the Tide last year? Of the five recent national champions from the SEC, only the 2009 Crimson managed to get through the season unscathed. Expect the Tide to continue rolling under QB Greg McElroy, a senior who has yet to experience a loss in a high school or college game as a starter. He'll have plenty of firepower to work with as Heisman Trophy winner RB Mark Ingram and WR Julio Jones (maybe the best receiver in the land) return for their junior seasons. Defense (ranked No. 2 overall the last six years – allowing just 275 YPG) has been the name of the game in Tuscaloosa but the ‘Nictator' will have to retool a unit that lost four players to the first two rounds of the NFL draft. Let's see how these well-rounded elephants fare with the bulls-eye squarely on their trunks.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Auburn (11/26)

ARKANSAS – *9 / 7

TEAM THEME: HOG WILD

The mud slinging should be kept to a minimum with a lot to like in Fayetteville this season. The Razorbacks capped off an eight-win season last year with a Liberty Bowl victory over East Carolina despite facing the nation's 4th toughest schedule. The 2009 squad leaders in passing, rushing, receiving, total offense, all-purpose yards, tackles, sacks, interceptions, pass break-ups, QB hurries, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, kickoff returns, field goals, punting and blocked punts all return! One of those returning leaders is 6'7" 238-lb QB Ryan Mallett, who was named the top signal caller in the country last season by the Sporting News. In all, 59 letterman, 16 starters and both specialists will once again don the cardinal & white, making Petrino's Hogs a handful in 2010.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Texas A&M (10/9)

AUBURN – 7 / 8

TEAM THEME: JUST WIN, BABY

A 5-0 start diminished to a 2-5 finish, but Gene Chizik silenced the naysayers with an 8-win campaign that included a victory over Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. His Tigers were even on the verge of an Iron Bowl win before arch-rival Alabama rallied for a 26-21 victory on their way to the national title. As a result, Auburn enjoyed a strong recruiting class, which should serve as building blocks for the future. Unfortunately, the future is always now at Jordan-Hare Stadium and Chizik will have to deal with a schedule that includes eight bowlers and a trip to Tuscaloosa. The good news is eight home games dot the slate and 15 starters return, including the majority of offensive and defensive linemen. Here's some friendly advice for Chizik – keep winning. It didn't matter that former HC Tommy Tuberville had eight straight winning seasons… a 5-7 season sent him packing.

PLAY ON: vs. Kentucky (10/9)

LSU – *6 / 4

TEAM THEME: CLUE LES

The Tigers' offense fell off the map in 2009, barely averaging over 300 YPG and finishing No. 112 in the nation. Maybe it's time to start pointing the finger at Les Miles. Yes, Miles has won 51 of 66 games in his first 5 years at LSU, but nine of those losses have come within the past two seasons as he continues to find more ways to lose games than win them. Last year ended with a whimper as the Bengals dropped three of their last five, losing the stat battle in every contest. To make matters worse, the defense slipped for the third year in a row. To further emphasize our point, and to show how his teams continue to underachieve, we point out that LSU is 14-3 SU as a home favorite under Miles but only 2-14-1 ATS in those games. If the return of QB Jordan Jefferson doesn't help, perhaps an appointment with Dr. Jennifer Melfi will.

PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Mississippi St (9/18)

MISSISSIPPI – 3 / 6

TEAM THEME: NINE BALL

Thanks to 31 turnovers and the inconsistent play of QB Jevan Snead, the Rebels were unable to improve on their surprise 2008 season. On some bad advice, Snead forewent his senior season and declared for the NFL Draft. However, it's the loss of some other skill players that has Houston nutty. "When you lose the first 1,000-yard receiver in Ole Miss history (Shay Hodge), and then lose a guy like Dexter (McCluster) who was a 1,000-yard rusher and 500-yard receiver, that's 2,500 yards you've got to make up," lamented Nutt. Nutt has led the Rebels to consecutive nine-win seasons for the first time since 1961-1962. A seven-game home slate and a favorable non-conference schedule (only one bowler) should keep Ole Miss in the mix, but Nutt will need to call on all of his coaching acumen to produce a third straight nine-win season.

PLAY ON: as dog vs. Alabama (10/16)

MISSISSIPPI STATE – 6 / 8

TEAM THEME: CROOMING A DIFFERENT TUNE

Sadly, with Sylvester Croom in retirement, the excitement is back in Starkville. After leading the nation in increased attendance last season, 34,127 fans attended the spring game – a new record in the state of Mississippi. Despite facing the toughest slate in the country last season, the Bulldogs won a respectable five games – including three on the road. 2010's schedule is also challenging: Dan Mullen's men face no less than nine bowlers. However, the second-year HC returns four starters from an offensive line that paved the way for a ground attack that led the SEC in rushing while improving by over 1,500 yards and a significant 1.8 YPG. Thanks to the ground game, the offense averaged 26 PPG – quite an improvement from the 15 PPG in 2008. While the passing attack (No. 113) still requires some glee, Mullen has the State faithful singing in full force.

PLAY ON: vs. Arkansas (11/20)

SEC Betting Preview: Is the SEC still the class of the BCS?
By Ben Burns

Is this the year the mighty SEC finally outgrows its britches?

We’re being told Alabama and Florida are the clear-cut best teams in the conference. But neither the Tide nor the Gators possess that much more returning talent than teams like Arkansas, South Carolina or Georgia.

Speaking of who is No. 3 in the SEC, do you completely believe in the Hogs, ‘Cocks or Dogs? Arkansas is yet to play defense under Bobby Petrino. South Carolina has yet to run the ball under Steve Spurrier and Georgia is throwing a redshirt-freshman quarterback into the fire.

What about LSU and Auburn? Les Miles doesn’t have a ton back, but the Tigers are always talented. Remember, LSU gave Alabama one of its biggest scares last season.

On paper, Auburn looks like it has the talent to take a step up. But just when you started to believe in Gene Chizik’s Tigers last year, they would give up 44 to Arkansas or lose to Kentucky.

Then, there’s Ole Miss. Who knows how quickly the offense will gel with Oregon transfer Jeremiah Masoli running the show?

Tennessee has concerns all over the field and is especially thin up front on defense. That’s never a good thing in the SEC.

Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State are, well, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.

So there you have it. The mighty SEC just doesn’t seem that mighty this year. Still, it’s hard to criticize a conference that has produced the last four national champions. But will that equity result in ATS profit this season? Or is it to time to sell the SEC?

SEC odds and ends

(ATS records from last three years)

West Division

Alabama Crimson Tide

ATS: 21-17-1 (Home: 7-10. Away: 8-4)

Thing to remember: Only two of the last 10 BCS National Champions have posted a winning ATS mark the following season.

Auburn Tigers

ATS: 15-20 (Home: 7-9. Away: 10-10)

Thing to remember: The Tigers will put up big points, despite having a first-year starting quarterback in former Florida backup Cameron Newton. Gus Malzahn has been the offensive coordinator at three schools in four seasons. His offenses have averaged 37.6 points

Arkansas Razorbacks

ATS: 19-15-1 (Home: 11-7-1. Away: 7-6)

Thing to remember: Coach Bobby Petrino has an SEC-high 17 returning starters.

LSU Tigers

ATS: 13-23-3 (Home: 6-13-1. Away: 5-8-1)

Thing to remember: The Tigers haven’t been able to overcome their coaching disadvantage against the SEC. Under Les Miles, LSU is 14-27-3 ATS in conference play.

Mississippi Rebels

ATS: 21-13 (Home: 11-6. Away: 8-7)

Thing to remember: Houston Nutt is 7-0 ATS against non-conference competition in his two seasons at Ole Miss.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

ATS: 16-18 (Home 7-9. Away: 8-9)

Thing to remember: Is there a bigger red flag than entering the season not knowing who your quarterback is? Coach Dan Mullen is trying to choose from junior Chris Relf and redshirt-freshman Tyler Russell. But he told the local media this week that he has no clue who will the starting spot.

East Division

Florida Gators

ATS: 27-11 (Home: 13-5. Away: 9-3)

Thing to remember: The Gators feast on non-SEC competition. Under Urban Meyer, Florida is 17-3 ATS in non-conference play.

Georgia Bulldogs

ATS: 17-18-1 (Home: 6-10. Away: 6-6-1)

Thing to remember: A real sleeper, UGA will surround redshirt-freshman quarterback Aaron Murray with 10 returning starters on offense, including future first-round draft pick wide receiver A.J. Green.

South Carolina Gamecocks

ATS: 17-16-2 (Home: 10-7-1. Away: 7-7-1)

Thing to remember: This may be Steve Spurrier’s most talented team at South Carolina. He returns nine starters on offense, including third-year starting quarterback Stephen Garcia and future NFL wideout Alshon Jeffery. Remember the name Marcus Lattimore, too. He was the No. 1 running back in the nation and has been making noise in early practices.

Tennessee Volunteers

ATS: 21-16-2 (Home: 12-9-1. Away: 8-6)

Thing to remember: Coach Derek Dooley has an SEC-low nine returning starters. Bonus note: Over the last three seasons, the Vols have the best in-conference ATS mark at 19-9-2 in the SEC.

Kentucky Wildcats

ATS: 18-18 (Home: 7-11. Away: 9-4)

Thing to remember: The Wildcats have some nice playmakers on offense, but only one returning starter on the offensive line to block for them.

Vanderbilt Commodores

ATS: 17-17-1 (Home: 7-12. Away: 10-5-1)

Thing to remember: Three months after watching Vanderbilt struggle mightily in its spring game, head coach Bobby Johnson stepped down. What does that tell you?

SEC Predictions
By Brian Edwards

I’m ready to unleash my 2010 SEC football predictions, so let’s do it!

1-Alabama: I’m so tempted to go another route here due to the ‘hard-to-repeat thing’ that certainly hampered Florida last season. However, the returning weapons on offense, coupled with the coaching acumen of Nick Saban and his staff, just won’t let me do it. This is when you know you’re good: When it really and truly isn’t a stretch to imply that losing the reigning Heisman Trophy winner (Mark Ingram) wouldn’t be much of a loss because it would allow another Heisman-like talent (Trent Richardson) to get more touches. Senior quarterback Greg McElroy exceeded expectations in his first year as the starter in 2009, throwing for 2,508 yards while posting an outstanding 17/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His two favorite wideouts – Julio Jones and Marquiz Maze – are back in the mix, making this offense as balanced a unit as Tide fans have seen in school history. As for the defense, there are a lot of holes to fill and there’s a big question mark about the eligibility of All-American candidate Marcell Dareus, who is being investigated by the NCAA for alleged involvement with an agent. But Dont’a Hightower is back after going down with a season-ending knee injury in a 35-7 win over Arkansas last year. Plus, Saban has done nothing but load up with top-notch recruits since arriving in Tuscaloosa, so the talent base on defense is there; it merely lacks experience. Nevertheless, Saban and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart will have this unit playing at a high level, especially by the time the calendar hits October (vs. Florida, at South Carolina, vs. Ole Miss and at Tennessee).

Alabama’s season win total at BoDog is 10 ‘over’ (minus-130). I have the Tide finishing 11-1 in the regular season, so it’s a lean to the ‘over’ for me. With that said, I look for a 1 ½-game cushion to make season win total wagers, so I’ll pass on tying up money for several months at a ‘chalky’ minus-130 price. Saban’s bunch is the 4/1 favorite to win the BCS Championship and is the even-money ‘chalk’ to win the SEC (per BoDog).

2-Florida: No program in America lost more talent than the Gators, but the cupboard isn’t bare by any means whatsoever. In fact, there’s a growing sentiment coming out of Gainesville that this squad is much hungrier and more focused than last year’s team that failed to repeat as national champs. Tim Tebow is gone, but John Brantley is more than ready to take over under center. This three-generation Gator has patiently waited his turn and is poised to show off his cannon of an arm. And, lest we forget, we’ve seen an SEC team enjoy roaring success after losing a legendary signal caller. The year 1998 comes to mind when Tee Martin took over for Peyton Manning and led Tennessee to an unbeaten record and a BCS Championship Game win over FSU. Anyway, back to UF, which still has playmakers galore on offense like Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey, Deonte Thompson and Carl Moore. Defensively, the Gators might have the nation’s premier secondary with A-A candidates Ahmad Black, Janoris Jenkins and Will Hill.

BoDog has UF’s win total at 10 ‘over’ (minus-130). I have the Gators going 11-1, losing at Alabama in a preview of another showdown at the Georgia Dome. UF’s odds to win a third national title on Urban Meyer’s watch are 10/1. BoDog has the Gators as minus-150 favorites to win the SEC East and bettors can cash a plus-250 ticket if they prevail in Atlanta (risk $100 to win $250).

3-South Carolina: I don’t think there’s any doubt that this is (or ‘better be’) the year for South Carolina in Steve Spurrier’s sixth season at the helm. If the Gamecocks don’t go at least 8-4 in the regular season, it says here that Spurrier will hit the golf course and enjoy retirement at his beach house in the St. Augustine area. For USC standards, recruiting has gone well with much of that credit going to Shane Beamer. The ‘Cocks have a terrific set of WRs with sophomores Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley, but standout TE Weslye Saunders is also facing eligibility questions stemming from the same investigation involving ‘Bama’s Dareus (and UNC’s Marvin Austin). The question mark is fourth-year junior QB Stephen Garcia, who had his moments in ’09 (17/10 TD-INT ratio) but didn’t play well at all in losses to Tennessee, Arkansas and UConn. Without a doubt, it would help if Garcia had better protection and a steady ground attack to keep defenses from coming after him. The o-line should be improved and perhaps freshman RB Marcus Lattimore can have a breakout campaign. Most recruitniks had Lattimore as the best prep RB in the country last year.

I have USC going 9-3 and I strongly recommend a play on the ‘over’ for its season win total (seven shaded to the ‘over’ for a minus-140 price at BoDog). The Gamecocks have the following odds in terms of futures: 18/1 to win the SEC, 75/1 to win it all and they are plus-350 to make their first appearance in the SEC Championship Game (risk $100 to win $350).

4-Georgia: There’s no doubt that 10th-year head coach Mark Richt is on a somewhat warm seat despite his stellar 90-27 record in nine seasons in Athens. With that being said, I like how Richt has addressed his status with a calm demeanor that’s typical of his low-key personality. In contrast, I didn’t think that Tommy Tuberville (paranoia) and Phil Fulmer (defensive) did themselves any favors when they were in similar situations at Auburn and Tennessee, respectively, in 2008. The positives for UGA start with junior A.J. Green, who is the best WR in the country. The backfield is loaded with talent, as sophomore Washaun Ealey appears poised for a breakout year. The question mark is redshirt freshman QB Aaron Murray, who has yet to take a snap at the collegiate level. However, the Tampa Plant High School product was considered one of the country’s top handful of prep signal callers in the 2008 class. Making things easier for Murray will be 10 returning starters on his side of the ball, including an offensive line that might be the nation’s best. As for the defense, there are holes to fill with six starters gone.

I thing UGA is a real sleeper to keep an eye on, but it’s hard to trust a squad with a freshman QB. If Murray is ‘as advertised,’ watch out. The trip to Columbia to face South Carolina in Week 2 will be crucial. I have the Gamecocks prevailing and still don’t think the Dawgs are ready to beat Florida. But as long as UGA can dodge upset bids in road games at Mississippi St., at Colorado and at Kentucky, it should be able to win at least eight games in the regular season. With a bowl-game win in either Tampa or Orlando, I see the Dawgs likely going 9-4 and Richt being retained (but maybe not extended contract-wise).

5-Arkansas: This is the team that’s getting the preseason hype a la Ole Miss last summer. The main reason for that is the return of junior QB Ryan Mallett, who threw for 3,624 yards with a 30/8 TD-INT ratio in ’09. The transfer from Michigan might have the nation’s premier TE (D.J. Williams) and has an excellent set of wideouts overall. Without a doubt, the offense should put up a lot of points, but what about the defense? This unit was up and down in ’09 and has plenty of question marks in 2010.

I have the Razorbacks finishing with an 8-4 record, but I’m not endorsing an ‘under’ play for their season win total. BoDog has the Hogs with a win total of 8 ½ ‘under’ (minus-130). They have 35/1 odds to win the BCS Championship, plus-650 odds to win the SEC and plus-350 odds to win the SEC West.

6-LSU: Like Richt at UGA, Les Miles needs a big year in Baton Rouge. There’s no doubt that Miles can recruit and motivate, but he has no clue when it comes to managing a game. That fact has always been evident, but his shaky decisions worked out for the best when LSU won it all in ’07. Chalk that up to good fortune, not solid logic. Miles looked like a complete clown with his kindergarten-level handling of the clock in last year’s loss at Ole Miss. If he’s going to keep his job, Miles needs a monster year from junior QB Jordan Jefferson, who threw 17 TD passes compared to just seven picks last season. The opener against UNC at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta will be a big-time tone-setter. If the Bayou Bengals can win that game and knock off West Virginia in another challenging non-conference affair, they’ll take a lot of momentum into the meat of their SEC slate.

I think LSU goes into Little Rock for its regular-season finale against Arkansas with a 7-4 record. A loss in that spot will probably ensure Miles’ pink slip. The burning question for him will then be: Is his alma mater still interested now like it was in ’07? I’m not so sure Michigan will be. BoDog has LSU’s win total at eight ‘under’ (minus-125). The Tigers have these odds: 30/1 to win the BCS, 10/1 to win the SEC and 5/1 to win the SEC West.

7-Auburn: You know we’re talking about a strong conference when Auburn is the seventh-best team (in my opinion). Gene Chizik has plenty of pieces in place for his second season as the head coach on The Plains, but what’s he going to get out of juco transfer Cam Newton? Newton got some playing time as a true freshman at Florida, but he was dismissed before his sophomore season when he ran afoul of the law. Newton has a go-to WR in Darvin Adams (60 receptions for 997 yards and 10 TDs in ’09) and plenty of talented backs to hand off to, so he won’t have too much pressure to be a world beater. The defense will need to improve after giving up 30 points or more six times last year.

Auburn has a win total of 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-140) at BoDog. I think the Tigers are going to be an 8-4 team. They have future odds of 40/1 to win the BCS, 8/1 to win the SEC and 5/1 to get to the Ga. Dome as the SEC West rep.

8-Ole Miss: In two seasons with Houston Nutt as head coach, the good times in The Grove have been rolling as if a Manning was under center. The Rebels have won 18 games the last two years, but All-SEC players like RB Dexter McCluster and DE Greg Hardy have moved on to the pros. Nevertheless, there are still plenty of talented players like DT Jerrell Powe, DE Kentrell Lockett and LB Jonathan Cornell. The offense, however, has a lot of question marks even with the gift-wrapped addition of former Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli, who just landed in Oxford for the first time in early August. Following his dismissal from the Ducks program, Masoli was eligible to transfer and play immediately because he had completed his undergraduate work in Eugene. If Masoli can stay out of trouble and learn the new offense quickly, this might be your sleeper team in the SEC. There’s no doubt that Masoli can play, as evidenced by his first-team All Pac-10 selection last year along with Oregon’s trip to the Rose Bowl. And finally, history tells us that Nutt’s teams play much better when little is expected of them (like his first teams at Arkansas and Ole Miss in ’98 and ’08, respectively), while his heavily-hyped squads (like his last team at Arkansas in ’07 and last year’s Rebels) tend to disappoint.

The Rebels have the following future odds: 80/1 to win the BCS, 40/1 to win the SEC and 15/1 to earn their first trip to the Ga. Dome. They have a great chance to start 5-0 with an open date preceding their trip to Bryant-Denny Stadium to face 'Bama on Oct. 16. From there, Ole Miss has four SEC road games and home dates with Auburn, Louisiana and Mississippi St.

9-Mississippi State: This program is on the rise with second-year head coach Dan Mullen calling the shots. The word out of Starkville is that true freshman QB Dylan Favre, the nephew of Brett, might be the starting QB sooner than later. But workhorse RB Anthony Dixon is gone (lucky 49ers!) after helping the Bulldogs trash Ole Miss in last season’s Egg Bowl. They only went 5-7 last year, but all the vibes were positive. MSU should’ve beaten LSU in a gut-wrenching home loss and had its chances to knock off Houston and/or Ga. Tech in tight games that went the other way. The arrow is pointing up for the Bulldogs, but they are still a year or two away.

10-Tennessee: Well, UT fans, are you happy now? The vast majority of the Volunteer faithful were tired of Fulmer and wanted him out, and now we see the consequences. A horrible hire by AD Mike Hamilton (how the hell does this guy still have a job?) netted Lame Chafin’, who has the school under NCAA investigation after producing seven wins and six secondary NCAA violations (with more to come?) in just 14 months on the job. Derek Dooley is left to pick up the pieces. Trust me, it’s not going to be pretty for UT in 2010.

11-Kentucky: Here’s one last tip of the cap for the incredible job Rich Brooks did in making UK relevant in football the last four years. He has stepped aside to allow Joker Phillips to take over. The ‘Cats return five starters on offense and six on defense, but they will sorely miss a trio of defensive players (DT Corey Peters, LB Micah Johnson and CB Trevard Lindley) that were lost to the NFL Draft. On the bright side, do-it-all utility player Randall Cobb is back in the mix. This is one of the SEC’s best players and before he’s done, he’s going to be called one of the all-time greats at UK. The big question is who is going to win the starting QB job with three capable candidates – Mike Hartline, Morgan Newton and Ryan Mossakowski – vying for the position.

I think the ‘Cats are going to be 6-5 going into their regular-season finale at Tennessee. Of course, they’ll be looking to snap a 25-game losing streak to the Vols in that spot. Regardless of what happens in Knoxville, UK will be going bowling for a fifth straight year. If Phillips can do that on a steady basis, he’ll keep his job for a long time.

12-Vanderbilt: Bobby Johnson stepped aside unexpectedly in the middle of the summer, retiring from coaching. After leading the Commodores to their first bowl win since 1955 in ’08, Johnson’s team went winless in the SEC and 2-10 overall last year. Unfortunately for Vandy fans, similar results are probably looming in 2010. We should add, however, that the ‘Dores have one of the SEC’s best LBs in junior Chris Marve.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Six Alabama opponents have an open date the week before facing the Crimson Tide.

With apologies to UK’s Cobb, Vandy now has the league's best special-teams player in Warren Norman, who had three kickoff returns for touchdowns as a true freshman in 2009.

Since the SEC Championship Game was created back in 1992, only UF, UT and UGA have represented the East Division. In other words, Vandy, UK and South Carolina have never made it to the Ga. Dome (or Legion Field in ’92 or ’93).

Ranking the SEC’s head coaches:
1-Nick Saban (Alabama)
2-Urban Meyer (Florida)
3-Steve Spurrier (South Carolina)
4-Houston Nutt (Ole Miss)
5-Bobby Petrino (Arkansas)
6-Dan Mullen (Mississippi State)
7-Mark Richt (Georgia)
8-Les Miles (LSU)
9-Gene Chizik (Auburn)
10-Joker Phillips (Kentucky)
11-Derek Dooley (Tennessee)
12-Robbie Caldwell (Vanderbilt)

Five Quick-Hit Thoughts (with minimal explanation)

1-All things equal, I still think Spurrier is actually the best coach in the SEC. It’s just extremely difficult to get it done at South Carolina. (Yeah, you damn right I said it!)

2-I really don’t think it’s fair to judge (or rank) Phillips, Dooley and Caldwell yet. There’s no way to determine at this point how each will fare as head coaches in the nation’s premier conference.

3-If things go south in Athens this year and Richt gets canned, will the Dawgs go after Texas defensive coordinator and head-coach-in-waiting Will Muschamp or Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart? Both are going to be head coaches real soon and both played for the Dawgs (with my boy Brian Jones from out of The Bolles School in Jacksonville).

4-As if things weren’t going to be tough enough for Dooley this year, senior DE Ben Martin recently sustained a torn Achilles’ and is out for the season. Ouch!

5-If Dylan Favre is 65 percent of what his uncle was at Southern Miss, the future is bright in Starkville.

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