2011-12 College Football Bowl Game Odds & Point Spreads

Handicapping bowl season: Bet now or bet later?
By Ted Sevransky
Covers.com

The bowl season odds are out, but that doesn’t mean you should rush out and snatch up the opening number. Some bowl bets are better to wait on until the last minute. Ted Sevransky looks at six non-BCS bowls and tells you if it’s best to bet now or later.

Poinsettia Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. Texas Christian (-11)

With the public gravitating towards the ranked Horned Frogs and their bowl-season pedigree, this spread will likely climb before kickoff on December 21. Louisiana Tech has been a pointspread machine all season, with an NCAA-best 10-2 ATS mark. If you like the Bulldogs to hang tough against a quality foe once again, there’s no rush to get your wager down.

Verdict: If you like Louisiana Tech, bet later.

Maaco Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State vs. Boise State (-14)

The Broncos blew out Utah 26-3 in this bowl on this field last year, and beat UNLV 48-21 right here at Sam Boyd Stadium in November. But Boise State has been a pointspread disaster area. Its last cover came at Colorado State back on October 15. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS as double-digit favorites since that victory. And with Chris Peterson’s flirtations with other head coaching gigs lurking in the background, I’m not convinced we’re going to see Boise State’s A-game. At +14, this line can only drop between now and kickoff.

Verdict: If you like Arizona State, bet now.

Independence Bowl: North Carolina vs. Missouri (-4.5)

The Tar Heels have major issues. Interim head coach Everett Withers and most of his staff are on the way out. How much time will they spend breaking down film and game planning for Missouri, and how much time will they spend sending out resumes, to ensure that they are still employed next year? The early money is trickling in on the Tigers and that won’t stop any time soon.

Verdict: If you like Missouri, bet now.

Belk Bowl: Louisville vs. North Carolina State (-2.5)

Teams playing a bowl game in their home state often receive significant betting support. That’s based on a long-term angle which shows teams playing near home tend to cover spreads almost 60 percent of the time. Throw in a bevy of rumors swirling around Louisville head coach Charlie Strong – an attractive candidate in several high-profile coaching searches – and you can project that this line is only going higher. It hasn’t crossed that key number of -3 yet, but it will.

Verdict: If you like North Carolina State, bet now.

Music City Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (-6.5)

In a matchup of middling SEC vs. ACC squads, you can project that the SEC team is likely to draw betting support. Wake Forest head coach Jim Grobe has a great track record as an underdog, but the short term numbers aren’t pretty: 5-10 ATS as an underdog of more than a field goal over the past two seasons. Late-season blowout losses to Vanderbilt, North Carolina and Virginia Tech aren’t likely to attract many bettors. This spread is still sitting below a touchdown, but it probably won’t be by kickoff.

Verdict: If you like Wake Forest, bet later.

Insight Bowl: Iowa vs. Oklahoma (-14)

The early money poured in on Iowa in this game, driving the number down to -14. The Hawkeyes have been great bowl underdogs over the years and they’ve only lost one bowl game by more than a touchdown in the 13-year Kirk Ferentz era – back in 2003 against a national-championship caliber USC team. Oklahoma certainly didn’t look like a championship-caliber team down the stretch, but the betting public seems to find the Sooners a lot sexier than the Hawkeyes. If you missed the opener of +15.5, don’t fret – you might see it again before kickoff.

Verdict: If you like Iowa, bet later.

College football betting: Bowl mismatches outside BCS
By Adam Thompson
Covers.com

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Temple Owls vs. Wyoming Cowboys (6.5, 48.5)

Bernard Pierce/Matt Brown vs. Wyoming’s run defense

In 12 games this season, Temple has attempted 184 passes (15.3 per game) and has run the ball 576 times (48 per game) for more than 3,000 yards. Bernard Pierce has gotten most of it, going 248 times for 1,381 yards (5.6 average) and 25 touchdowns. Matt Brown has another 867 yards on 142 carries (6.1 average).

There’s little doubt what Temple is going to try to do and Wyoming appears to be the perfect team to do it against. The Cowboys rank 115th out of 120 teams in rushing defense, allowing 231.4 yards per game.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise State Broncos vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (-14, 66)

Kellen Moore vs. Devils’ defensive backs

Boise State hasn’t been as consistently overwhelming as many had hoped this season. But the Broncos still have one of the top receiving corps around, and a senior quarterback in Moore that can get it to them.

Moore has thrown for 3,507 yards, 41 TDs and just seven INTs. He and the rest of the team’s seniors have been one of the school’s most successful classes and are poised to go out a winner.

ASU, meanwhile, has lost four straight, giving up big passing numbers to Pac 12 bottom feeders Arizona (370) and Washington State (494) during the span.
Moore must be licking his chops studying an Arizona State defensive backfield that ranks 107th against the pass (270.9 ypg). The Broncos will also look to make a statement following the major BCS snub.

Valero Alamo Bowl

Washington Huskies vs. Baylor Bears (-9, 78)

Robert Griffin III vs. Huskies’ defense

Griffin is a dual-threat offensive juggernaut for Baylor. He threw for 3,998 yards, 36 TD and six INT, completing 72.4 percent of his passes. He also rushed for 655 yards and nine scores.

Washington has been dismal against quarterbacks who can throw, allowing 283.8 yards per game through the air which is fifth-worst in the nation. And that number is lowered because the likes of Stanford’s Andrew Luck, Oregon’s Darron Thomas and USC’s Matt Barkley. They barely passed in the second halves against Washington because of big leads.

Leading a Baylor offense that ranks No. 5 in passing (356.2 ypg), there’s a good bet Griffin may not be throwing much in the second half either.

Capital One Bowl

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (-2.5, 48)

Tyler Martinez vs. Gamecocks’ defense

Martinez is an explosive runner who’s able to break away from most defenses and change games with his feet. But he’s also Nebraska’s quarterback and when he needs to throw, it’s a hold-your-breath moment for Huskers fans.

Martinez has completed just 55.9 percent of his passes for 1,973 yards, 12 TDs and seven INTs.

Nebraska had better get ahead early so it can run all the time, because USC’s defense doesn’t allow much through the air. The Gamecocks rank second in the nation in pass defense (133 ypg) and have intercepted 18 passes. In the last three games, USC has allowed a paltry 70 ypg through the air.

AT&T Cotton Bowl

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-8, 62.5)

Razorbacks’ pass offense vs. Wildcats’ defensive backs

Tyler Wilson has thrown for 3,422 yards, 22 TDs and six INTs. He even threw for more than 200 yards against Alabama and LSU. He also had a QB rating of more than 120 and 148 in those games respectively.

Jarius Wright has 1,029 yards receiving and 11 TDs, one of four of Wilson’s targets with 490 yards or more.

The Wildcats have been torched through the air. They’re allowing an average of 267.2 yards, 104th in the nation. That includes 502 yards against Oklahoma State, 346 against Baylor, 461 against Texas Tech and 505 against Oklahoma. The Razorbacks are licking their chops.

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

Toledo Rockets vs. Air Force Falcons (3, 69.5)

Rockets’ run offense vs. Falcons’ run defense

Toledo’s offense uses a passing attack that averages an impressive 272 yards per game to run the ball. The Rockets average 222 yards per game on the ground, the eighth-most in the nation.

That balance shows why Toledo averages a whopping 42.2 points per game.

The speed – but lack of size – of Air Force makes the squad strong against the long ball. But the Falcons have struggled to slow down running games, allowing 228 yards per game - 112th out of 120 teams. In AFA’s last game, it beat hapless Colorado State 45-21, but Rams’ Chris Nwoke still rushed for 29 for 269 and two TD. If the Falcons can’t slow down the rush against bad teams that can’t pass, how will they slow down a team that can?

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Northwestern Wildcats (10, 65)

Dan Persa vs. Aggies’ pass defense

Persa, Northwestern’s cerebral quarterback, isn’t going to throw the ball over the Aggies’ beleaguered defensive backs. But he will throw underneath them, again and again.

Persa completed 74.3 percent of his passes this season, the best percentage of any starter in college football. Conversely, A&M’s defense allowed QBs to throw at a 62-percent clip, which is among the very worst among the 70 teams that are playing in a bowl game.

The problem is, A&M isn’t great at making the quick tackle. The team allows 280.5 pass yards per game, ranking 113th.

Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl

Florida Gators vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (2, 44)

Gators’ pass defense vs. Buckeyes’ pass offense

Buckeyes freshman quarterback Braxton Miller is going to be very good eventually. But he’s still learning.

Miller has completed just 50 percent of his passes for 997 yards. OSU’s 124.1 pass yards per game ranks 116th out of 120 teams.

Florida’s had its own problems this season, but passing defense is not one of them. The Gators still have NFL-caliber talent in the backfield and rank 10th in slowing the pass. Quarterbacks only connected on 52.8 percent of their passes and have just 13 passing TDs against Florida.

Miller’s going to need a lot of help from the Buckeyes’ inconsistent running game to give him a chance against that defensive unit.

Who's Hot, Who's Not
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

There are plenty of factors to consider when handicapping the college football bowl season, especially when you look at particular matchup. Analyzing a non-conference matchup isn’t easy in September yet alone December or January. So how do you find a mismatch? Looking at the current form of a school is a nice way to start. Below is a list of bowls that have are either streaking or slumping into the postseason.

On a Roll

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Saturday, Dec. 17

Utah State (7-5 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) owns an all-time bowl record of 1-4 and hasn’t been to a postseason game since the 1997 Humanitarian Bowl, which it lost to Cincinnati (19-35). Perhaps things will change this year. The Aggies have closed the season with five straight wins, three coming on the road too. Utah State is listed as a short favorite (2½) but earning its second bowl victory won’t be easy against a decent Ohio (9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS squad. The Bobcats had a five-game winning streak intact before they lost to Northern Illinois (20-23) in the MAC Championship.

Poinsettia Bowl – Wednesday, Dec. 21

Gamblers will have a tough decision in this battle from San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium. Louisiana Tech (8-4 SU, 10-1 ATS) and TCU (10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) both enter this game with identical seven-game winning streaks. Even knowing that fact, the Horned Frogs have been listed as 10½-point favorites on the neutral field. TCU is 3-1 in its last four bowl games under Gary Patterson, but only 1-3 ATS and the largest margin was seven points. Make a note that the Bulldogs were 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS on the road this season, and the two losses came against quality foes in Southern Miss (17-19) and Mississippi State (20-26 OT).

Alamo Bowl – Thursday, Dec. 29

Robert Griffin and Baylor (9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) will look to build on their five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) this postseason when it battles Washington (7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS). The Bears haven’t won a bowl game since 1992 and this will be a home game for them, with Waco just a few hours north of San Antonio. Most books have Baylor listed as a nine-point favorite.

Rose Bowl, Monday Jan. 2

It’s kind of amazing that Wisconsin (11-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) is getting six points against Oregon (11-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) in its bowl game. The Badgers closed the season with five straight wins, four by double digits and their two losses came by a combined 10 points on heartbreaking plays. Oregon is no slouch but it hasn’t won a bowl game under head coach Chip Kelly.

GoDaddy.com Bowl – Sunday, Jan. 8

This particular bowl doesn’t boast big programs but you do have a pair of hot teams squaring off. Arkansas State (10-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) started the season 1-2 but closed with nine straight wins. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois (10-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) was also shaky (2-3) in the first five weeks but the Huskies ended the season with eight consecutive games, including its MAC Championship win over Ohio (23-20). The oddsmakers are expecting a tight game as well, with the Red Wolves listed as one-point favorites.

BCS Championship – Monday, Jan. 9

The rematch between LSU (13-0 SU, 10-2 ATS) and Alabama (11-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) needs no introduction. The Tigers have the longest winning streak in the nation at 13 and almost half of them came on the road. LSU has gone 6-0 both SU and ATS outside of Baton Rouge, but Alabama’s road mark (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) isn’t too shabby either.

Why Bother Playing?

The bowls listed below will have teams that are slumping into their bowl games and not surprisingly, all three of them will have new coaches as well next season.

Maaco Bowl – Thursday, Dec. 22

At one point this season, Arizona State (6-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) had positioned itself for a spot in the Pac 12 Championship. The Sun Devils then dropped five of their last six, including their final four games. The school fired Dennis Erickson as head coach, yet he’ll still be on the sidelines when ASU meets No. 8 Boise State (11-1 SU, 4-8 ATS) in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Sun Devils only went to one bowl under Erickson and they lost by 18 to Texas (34-52). The Broncos are currently listed as 14-point favorites, which is the highest number amongst all the bowls.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – Saturday, Dec. 31

New Year’s Eve college bowl slate will have five games on tap and this is probably the one you shouldn’t bet on. Despite closing the season with six straight setbacks, Illinois (6-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) is listed as a 2½-point favorite in its bowl game. Why? Because the opponent is UCLA (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS), who actually showed some fight against Oregon (31-49) in the Pac 12 title game. What’s even more comical is that both teams fired their head coaches, Ron Zook and Rick Neuheisel, and will use interims for this bowl.

Gator Bowl – Monday, Jan. 2

Most of the talk on this contest will be centered on former Florida coach and new Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer. The Buckeyes (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) will be led by interim head coach Luke Fickell, who will be hoping to snap a three-game losing skid when they meet Florida (6-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) from Jacksonville. Even though Ohio State is in a bit of a slump, all three of its recent losses came by a combined 15 points. Florida defeated Ohio State 41-14 in the 2006-07 BCS Championship game. Most books have the Gators listed as two-point favorites over the Buckeyes in the rematch.

Inside the Stats - Bowls
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Stats Matter - A Guide to Handicapping the Bowl Games

It's unanimous. Smart handicappers alike agree on one thing - preparation is the key to success. The better prepared you are the better chance you stand at succeeding.

With the 2011 college football bowl season now upon us, it's time to get ready for the 35 games that await. While a myriad of different techniques and approaches exist, one simple element is often overlooked and that is how a team is performing on the playing field 'In

The Stats' (ITS) as they enter into its bowl game. In other words, are they winning or losing that overall yardage on the playing field.

As handicappers we know better than most the scoreboard does not tell the entire story. Like a doctor examining an MRI or an X-Ray, it's critically important to look inside the patient and check out his vitals before rendering a diagnosis.

Listed below are noteworthy results of how the 70 bowl teams have fared ITS overall and most recently this season, along with other notes of significance…

Air Force 8-4 overall
Alabama 12-0 overall / held 7 foes to season low yards
Arizona St 6-6 overall
Arkansas 7-5 overall / 1-4 away
Arkansas St 9-3 overall / 6-0 L6
Auburn 5-7 overall
Baylor 10-2 overall
Boise St 11-1 overall / held 4 foes to season low yards
BYU 9-3 overall / 8-0 L8

California 8-4 overall / held 4 foes to season low yards
Cincinnati 6-5-1 overall / 1-3-1 L5
Clemson 10-3 overall / 2-3 L5

Florida 7-5 overall
Florida Intl 5-7 overall / 1-3 L4
Florida St 8-4 overall / held 6 foes to season low yards

Georgia 12-1 overall
Georgia Tech 8-4 overall / 2-4 L6

Houston 11-2 overall / 6-0 away

Illinois 9-3 overall / 1-2 L3
Iowa 6-6 overall / 1-3 L4
Iowa St 5-7 overall / 4-1 L5

Kansas St 3-9 overall / 0-5 L5

La Lafayette 6-6 overall / 0-3 L3
La Tech 7-5 overall / 4-1 L5
Louisville 7-5 overall / 1-3 L4
LSU 9-4 overall / held 5 foes to season low yards

Marshall 4-8 overall / 3-1 L4
Michigan 10-2 overall / 5-0 L5
Michigan St 10-3 overall / held 5 foes to season low yards
Mississippi St 7-5 overall
Missouri 8-4 overall

NC State 6-6 overall / 4-0 L4
Nebraska 7-5 overall / 1-3 L4
Nevada 10-2 overall / 8-0 L8
North Carolina 6-6 overall / 3-1 L4
Northern Illinois 8-5 overall / 4-0 L4
Notre Dame 7-5 overall / held 4 foes to season low yards

Ohio St 4-8 overall / 0-5 away
Ohio U 10-3 overall
Oklahoma 9-3 overall
Oklahoma St 10-2 overall
Oregon 10-1-1 overall / 5-0-1 away

Penn St 8-4 overall
Pittsburgh 6-6 overall
Purdue 5-7 overall

Rutgers 7-5 overall

San Diego St 7-5 overall / 4-1 L5
SMU 7-5 overall
South Carolina 7-5 overall / 3-0 L3
Southern Miss 11-1-1 overall
Stanford 11-0-1 overall

TCU 7-5 overall
Temple 7-5 overall / 1-4 L5
Texas 8-4 overall / held 6 foes to season low yards
Texas A&M 10-2 overall / 7-0 L7
Toledo 10-2 overall / 7-0 L7
Tulsa 8-4 overall / 7-1 L8

UCLA 5-8 overall
Utah 4-8 overall / 0-4 L4
Utah St 10-2 overall

Vanderbilt 6-6 overall
Virginia 8-3-1 overall
Virginia Tech 9-4 overall

Wake Forest 5-7 overall / 1-6 L7
Washington 5-7 overall / 1-3 L4
West Virginia 9-2-1 overall
Western Michigan 7-5 overall
Wisconsin 10-3 overall / 1-2 L3
Wyoming 5-7 overall / 3-1 L4

Given the fact that teams who outgain their opponent win the game better than 80% of the time, and straight-up winners in bowl games being 570-95-10 ITS - including 32-3 last season - since 1980, it's crucial to your success when evaluating a team's chance of winning the yardage wars.

Just another slant when it comes to handicapping the bowl contests. Add it to your arsenal and enjoy the games!

Betting streaking and slumping bowl-bound teams
By Dave Carey
Covers.com

It's always nice to have your stockings stuffed around the holidays, so take advantage of some sizzling trends in college football to fill up on winning tickets.

TOP UNDER BETS

Florida State

The Seminoles have cashed under tickets in six of the past seven games as the preseason ACC favorites are ranked second in rush defense (81.8 ypg), fourth in scoring defense (15.1 ppg), and sixth in total defense nationally (274.6). Bad quarterback play from oft-injured and highly-touted signal caller EJ Manuel, combined with one of the country’s top defenses equals lots of totals coming in below the number.

Illinois

The Fighting Illini simply can’t score, playing below the total in six straight games. The men from Champaign haven’t scored more than 17 points since the first week of October and are averaging a pathetic 11 points per game over their past six. Need more? The team lost each of those six games and fired head coach Ron Zook.

TOP OVER BETS

Louisiana-Lafayette

If there is one thing the Rajin’ Cajuns can do, it’s score points, hitting the over in four of their past five games. Louisiana-Lafayette has notched at least 20 points in every game this season and is averaging at 32.4 points over that span. Over bettors also are getting help from a mediocre defense that is giving up an average of 34.4 points per game over the past five.

Kansas State

The Wildcats have seen the over hit in six of their past seven thanks to an opportunistic offense and a mediocre defense. The team has a +1.08 turnover margin which allows it to average 33.1 points per game despite being ranked 96th in total offense (343 ypg). That helps to balance out a shaky defense that allows nearly 400 yards and 28 points per game.

TOP ATS BETS

BYU

The Cougars have gotten their roar back thanks to quarterback Riley Nelson. With Nelson under center, BYU managed to cash six straight against the spread and surge to a bowl berth. He finished the season with 1,467 yards and 16 touchdowns against just five interceptions. Riley was banged up late in the season but is expected to be at 100 percent for the bowl game.

Louisville

It took a quarter of the season, but freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater finally adjusted to the college level. The former Northwestern (Fla.) High standout led the Cardinals to a 7-1 record ATS the final eight games of the season. He finished the season completing 66 percent of his passes for 1,855 yards with 12 touchdowns against nine interceptions to go with three rushing scores. Louisville averaged 29.4 points over its final five games.

WORST ATS BETS

Boise State

No favorite routinely left bettors tossing tickets into the recycle bin like the Broncos. Going through the motions of a weak Mountain West slate, Boise State failed to cover the spread in each of its final six games. Defense has been the biggest issue for the Broncos, yielding an average of 22 points per game over that span and that number's skewed by a season-ending 45-0 win over a dreadful New Mexico side. During its ATS losing streak, Boise State has been at least a two-touchdown favorite in each game.

Southern Methodist

The Mustangs could have used a healthy Zach Line down the stretch as SMU failed to cover the spread in six straight games to end the regular season. The star running back suffered a season-ending toe injury last month as he had amassed 1,224 yards and 17 touchdowns. SMU failed to cover as both a huge favorite (minus-26.5) and big underdog (plus-19.5) during the run of futility.

Ultimate college football bowl betting guide
By David Payne
Covers.com

The holidays are a time for giving, and I’m a very generous man, who happens to have impeccable abs.

So, per tradition, I’ll reward loyal Covers.com readers with a holiday picture of me, topless in a Santa hat.

Even though I know you’re completely satisfied with my thoughtful package, I’ll throw in this little nugget with your holiday booty– here’s everything you need to know to make money betting the bowls.

STOCKING STUFFERS

Since the 1998-99 season, bowl games have averaged 53.21 points. The average over/under total is 53.88. There have been 356 overs and 376 unders with six pushes.

-Teams that traveled the furthest are 45-20 ATS the past two bowl seasons.

WAC teams produced the highest percentage of overs. Conference USA teams produced the highest percentage of unders.

Teams playing their bowl game in their home state are 30-22-2 ATS the past four years.

Big 12 teams averaged a nation-best 34.6 points per game; Sun Belt teams average 24.7 points per game, fewest in the nation.

Air Force went 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS against bowl teams this season.

San Diego State has outscored its opponents 207-72 in the second half this season.

LSU went 8-0 SU and ATS against bowl teams.

Double-digits favorites are 53-53-2 ATS in bowls since the 1998-99 season.

Florida went 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS against bowl teams this season.

(Hat tip to Covers Expert Marc Lawrence’s Bowl Playbook for contributing to the above stats).

STRENGTH-OF-SCHEDULE MISMATCHES

(Jeff Sagarin’s Ratings)

Iowa State (2) vs. Rutgers (77)

Marshall (58) vs. Florida International (128)

Penn State (38) vs. Houston (106)

Auburn (11) vs. Virginia (74)

Texas A&M (3) vs. Northwestern (60)

STATISTICAL MISMATCHES

Louisiana-Lafayette’s goal-line offense (4th) vs. San Diego State’s goal-line defense (100th)

Rutgers goal-line defense (4th) vs. Iowa State’s red-zone defense (111th)

Texas A&M’s pass rush (43 sacks, tied for No. 1 in nation) vs. Northwestern’s pass protection (34 sacks allowed, 102nd)

Toledo’s third-down offense (16th) vs. Air Force’s third-down defense (115th)

EXPERT ADVICE

Professional handicappers David Malinsky and Scott Rickenbach had the highest winning percentage of all Covers Experts in college football this season. Here’s how they did and how they plan on winning more during bowl season.

Q: Looking back, what do you believe was the secret to your success this season betting college football?

Malinsky: As the modern game moves further from the line of scrimmage, and gets decided much by speed on the perimeter as muscle in the trenches (if not even more so), we change of fundamental focuses to reflect that.

Once upon a time our early-season focus was on how experienced the big guys up front were in terms of working with each other, now that becomes making the players in the secondary a bigger focus, especially in terms of cohesion.

And it is also understanding the depth in the defensive backfields, so that we know which teams can match up better when forced into nickel packages against spread attacks, or which teams can be exploited.

Rickenbach: I believe that a return to my roots (contrarian handicapping) really helped me. For instance, playing on a road dog when the small home favorite looked so enticing; or grabbing an over on a total where everyone seemed attracted to the under. I love situations like that.

Also, I believe just focusing more on my totals helped tremendously. I went 27-13 with totals last season and then 24-12 with totals this season. That said, I am making a conscious effort to focus more and more on totals in college football and that "total focus" will include this upcoming bowl season.

Q: Give us one bowl handicapping tip.

Malinsky: More than anything else, these bowl games come down to focus. Which teams take the games more seriously, and put more energy into their game plans and practices.

It is important to note that not all bowl games are rewards. Some teams had hoped for better things and feel let down with a lesser trip, and now that 6-6 can keep you in play, there are some bad teams that are not all that excited about having the season extend. Because there are so many games, every bowl season is going to provide us at least a few in which we have play-on teams happy to be where they are against flat play-against sides, and we do not hesitate to take advantage of those settings.

Conference Bowl ATS records since 2004

SEC: 31-24

MWC: 21-12

Pac-12: 25-24

Big Ten: 21-19

Big East: 18-14

Big 12: 25-28

WAC: 12-13-1

Independents: 7-6

ACC: 26-25

CUSA: 17-23

Sun Belt: 7-5-1

MAC: 8-17-2

Payneful Bowl Picks

Season: 20-11-1

San Diego State (-4.5, 58.5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Pick: Over 58.5. Two good goal-line offenses that score TDs and don’t settle for field goals.

Big 10 Bowls - Part I
By ASA

Ten of the 12 Big Ten teams are headed to a bowl game this season, including a pair of squads heading to BCS bowls. Apparently, Vegas oddsmakers don't like the Big Ten's chances as seven of the 10 squads are underdogs. Since 2009, the Big Ten is 8-9 straight up and 10-6-1 against the spread in bowl games. In BCS bowls in that span, the Big Ten is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS.

Here's a look at part I of a two-part series previewing the Big Ten Bowl games from Dec. 27 through Dec. 31.

Little Caesar's Bowl from Detroit
Matchup: Purdue Boilermakers (-2.5) vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Date: Tuesday, Dec. 27
TV/Time: (ESPN, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Purdue won its final game of the season at Indiana to secure its first bowl game since 2007. Western Michigan is in its third bowl game in the last five season's thanks largely to the strength of its high-octane offense. Western Michigan is no stranger to the Big Ten, having played Michigan and Illinois this season (lost to both).

The Broncos offense ranked 22nd nationally in total offense averaging 456 yards per game, and 18th in scoring offense averaging 35.6 points per game (scored 44+ points on five different occasions). QB Carder threw for 3,434 yards (67%) with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season. WR White was on the receiving end of 48% of those yards and had 16 touchdowns (leads the nation in receiving). Carder missed the season finale against Akron with a sore shoulder but is expected to start in the bowl game.

Purdue's top two rushers were both injured in the Boilers' last game. Leading rusher Ralph Bolden suffered a knee injury and is not expected to play in the bowl game and second leading rusher (and leader in touchdowns) Akeem Shavers suffered a concussion and is questionable for the bowl game. It might not matter who the Boilers send out at RB, as Western Michigan ranks 100th in total defense and 107th against the run.

As you might expect for an inconsistent 6-6 team, Purdue doesn't stand out in many areas, but the Boilers did just enough to advance to their first bowl game since 2007. The Boilermakers never once won two games in a row and had only one two-game losing streak. Purdue will have to shore up its defense after it allowed 35 points per game over the final five weeks.

Something to consider: Western Michigan has played nine games against Big Ten squads over the last five seasons. The Broncos 2-8 SU and 3-5 ATS (loss against Michigan earlier this season wasn't counted ATS as it was cancelled early due to lightning).

Insight Bowl from Tempe
Matchup: Iowa Hawkeyes (+14) vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Date: Friday, Dec. 30
TV/Time: (ESPN, 10:00 p.m. ET)

Iowa is 6-3 in bowls during Kirk Ferentz's tenure as coach, including victories in each of the past three years (2010 Insight, 2010 Orange, 2009 Outback). Extending the win streak will be a tough task against Oklahoma, the preseason No. 1 team. Oklahoma dealt with a ton of injuries and both teams struggled down the stretch, each dropping two of the final three games.

Iowa has a strong three-headed attack on offense with QB Vandenberg (23 pass TD), RB Coker (1,384 rush yards, 15 TD), and WR McNutt (1,269 receiving yards, 12 TD). It was quite unpredictable, however, as it scored 41+ four times but was held to 7 or fewer twice. The defense was also quite unreliable, allowing 388 yards per game and 23 points per game (worse averages that Iowa has seen in over six years).

Oklahoma averages over 532 yards per game and 40 points per game, but this offense is much less dangerous without WR Broyles (1,157 yards, 10 TD before injury) and RB Whaley (627 rush yards, 9 TD before injury) out of the lineup. The offense averaged just 29 points per game sine their injuries.

The big question is: how motivated is Oklahoma to be here? They started the season ranked #1 in the country before an inexplicable loss to Texas Tech at home as a four touchdown favorite. The Sooners had another shot to get back in the title hunt before losing to Baylor (had been 20-0 against the Bears). Then to top off the season, the Sooners lost by 34 points to bitter in-state rival Oklahoma State.

Something to consider: Iowa is 7-1 ATS its last eight games as a double digit underdog and 4-0 its last four bowl games. Oklahoma is 19-7 ATS following a loss but just 1-4 ATS the last five bowl games.

Meineke Car Care Texas Bowl from Houston
Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (+10) vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Date: Saturday, Dec. 31
TV/Time: (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

The Aggies are in a state of turmoil. They have no coach and the players are understandably shaken up about it. The team is moving to the SEC next season after a disappointing final season in the Big 12 and a spot in the Meineke Car Care Bowl isn't what the seniors had in mind. Northwestern doesn't have as much talent as the Aggies, but the Wildcats won four of their final five to secure a Bowl bid and are always dangerous as an underdog.

A&M was a preseason top 10 team with as much talent as any in the Big 12 and they ended up 6-6. The Aggies held a 2nd half lead in five of the six losses and a 4th quarter lead in four of the six. The offense can hang with anyone but this defense cannot keep a lead. They were 113th against the pass and 76th in scoring defense. Northwestern's QB Persa led the nation in completion percentage and had 17 TD and 7 INT after missing the first three games with an injury (played the rest of the season injured).

A&M will likely get a bevy of offensive talent back for this game; RB Gray will likely return from injury, as will QB Tannehill with top WR's Swope and Fuller. This Aggie offense ranked 7th nationally in total yards and 11th in scoring. They could have a big day here against this Wildcats defensive unit that surrendered 409 yards per game (80th) and 27 points per game (68th).

Something to consider: Northwestern will play in a bowl for a team-record fourth consecutive year, but the Wildcats haven't won a Bowl game since 1949. This will be a virtual road game for Northwestern in Houston, as Texas A&M fans will pack Reliant Stadium. However, Northwestern is 4-2 ATS on the road this season.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl from San Francisco
Matchup: Illinois Fighting Illini (-2.5) vs. UCLA Bruins
Date: Saturday, Dec. 31
TV/Time: (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

These are the toughest games to gauge, considering that Illinois & UCLA both just fired their head coaches and both had disappointing finishes to the season. Illinois started 6-0 before losing the final six games of the season. UCLA lost three of its final four games by 18+ points and is the only FCS team to make it to a bowl with a sub-.500 record.

Illinois scored just 66 total points in its final six games after averaging nearly 30 in the first half of the season. QB Scheelhaase had just two touchdown passes the final six games after throwing 10 the first six. Offensive coordinator Petrino already departed for a job at Arkansas, leaving Illinois without two of its top three coaches heading into the Bowl game.

Somehow the Bruins came out atop the Pac-12 South and "earned" a place in the conference championship game - mainly because 10-2 USC is serving its two-year postseason ban. UCLA was embarrassed by USC and Oregon the final two weeks of the season, allowing 99 total points and scoring just 31. This defense was terrible in 2011 and it ranks at or near the bottom of every major statistical category.

Illinois' defense has the major edge in this game. This unit ranked 7th in yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense. DE Mercilus leads the nation in sacks (14.5) and forced fumbles (nine, a Big Ten record) and the Illini were 4th nationally against the pass thanks to him. Defensive coordinator Koenning will take over interim head coaching reigns for this game and he should have this defense motivated for one more big performance.

Something to consider: Illinois has failed to cover 15 of its previous 20 non-conference games while the Bruins are just 5-12 ATS its last 17 as an underdog.

Coaching Changes
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We’ve seen key players make an impact on point-spreads posted on college football games, but what about the value of a head coach leaving a team just before heading into a bowl game? Of course, it depends on the circumstances whether the coach bailed on the team to take another job or if they were fired.

Then you also have the circumstances like Urban Meyer at Ohio State, where they have a respected coach watching practices from afar, but not officially taking over coaching duties until next season. Luke Fickell, who is the interim head coach will also be part of Meyer’s staff next season. Could this situation turn out better for Ohio State than if Meyer hadn't been named yet for their Gator Bowl matchup with Florida?

“I think the Buckeyes situation is a positive for them because every kid on the team will be practicing extra hard trying to win Urban Meyer’s attention,” said Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White, who made the Florida-Ohio State game a PICK when the consensus in Las Vegas is Florida -2.

“I think it’s a great situation for that program, especially with the players knowing that the well liked Fickell, who recruited many of them, will be staying with the team.”

UCLA has a similar situation with the kids knowing Jim Mora Jr. is taking notes while offensive coordinator Mike Johnson leads them into the Fight Hunger Bowl against Illinois. Illinois opened as a 3-point favorite and after dropping all the way down to -1½, has settled in at -2½.

Illinois has change too with former Toledo head coach Tim Beckman doing the same thing as Meyer and Mora Jr. with defensive coordinator Vic Koenning coaching the Illini against UCLA.

Toledo quickly got rid of the interim title with Matt Campbell and named him head coach moving forward which should give the players some feeling of security that one of their own is staying put. Toledo has been a steady 3-point favorite for their Dec. 28 Military Bowl game against Air Force.

Other circumstances such as Houston, where head coach Kevin Sumlin took the same position at Texas A&M may have a negative effect.

“Sumlin was a well liked coach by the kids and they believed in everything he was preaching,” said White. “And then after the players have all the anxiety of losing their first game of the season, they’re hit with a bombshell that Sumlin is leaving them.

White said Sumlin vacating the spot was worth about 1-point in his line, which he set Houston as a 2-point favorite. Las Vegas sports books currently have Houston as high as a 6-point favorite against Penn State.

“I thought Houston would have trouble with Penn State’s defense beforehand and now it just adds a little more to the overall equation,” says White.

Tony Levine will taking over the head coaching duties and it should be business as usual for the Cougars, but you do have to account for emotion somewhat.

Most head coaches don’t do a lot of coaching during the game, or practices, leaving most of the duties up to the assistant coaches. The head coach’s job is to get his coaches to do the coaching the way he wants and then serve as somewhat of an inspirational piece for the players and getting them to execute out of respect for him and his staff.

It could be argued that the most important piece to the equation is when a team loses their offensive or defensive coordinator, forcing someone else into that play calling role. Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn accepted the head coaching position at Arkansas State but announced that he would be with Auburn for the Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year’s Eve against Virginia. Malzahn will also be with Arkansas State for their Jan. 8 GoDaddy.com Bowl against Northern Illinois. Despite wearing two different hats, Malzahn said he didn't feel right about leaving the Auburn kids.

"I feel like that's the right thing to do (coaching for Auburn). ... I really have not gotten any farther as to what my role will be with the bowl game in Mobile (Arkansas State)," Malzahn said Wednesday. "I'll kind of take a couple of days to sit back (and evaluate his plans). But I will be on the sidelines as far as (being) there watching and I will be with the whole bowl experience there in Mobile.'

The move either way hasn’t affected the Auburn line as it holds steady at -1 ½. The Arkansas State line hasn't been affected either, staying at consensus -1 over Northern Illinois.

A game that saw immediate action with a coaching change done mid-stream after the bowl lines had been up for a while was Pittsburgh head coach Todd Graham announcing Wednesday that he had accepted the position at Arizona State. This was one of the all-time great bailouts on a team as he told his kids the news through a text message.

“I Immediately moved the game from (Pittsburgh) -5 to -3½,” said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book assistant manager Jeff Sherman. “I saw a lot of over-reaction from a few sports books, but 3½ looks to be the right number.”

Pittsburgh plays SMU in the Compass Bowl in Birmingham on Jan. 7.

Ultimately, it appears Houston and Pittsburgh have the biggest issues coming into the bowls due to the coaching situation while others may be better off because of more focus in practice to win the new coach‘s approval.

Big 10 Bowls - Part II
By ASA

Ten of the 12 Big Ten teams are headed to bowl games this season, including a pair of squads heading to BCS bowls. Apparently, Vegas oddsmakers don't like the Big Ten's chances as seven of the 10 squads are underdogs. Since 2009, the Big Ten is 8-9 straight up and 10-6-1 ATS in bowl games. In BCS bowls in that span, the Big Ten is 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS.

TicketCity Bowl from Dallas
Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions (+5.5) vs. Houston Cougars
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Houston had a golden opportunity for an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl; all the Cougars had to do was beat Southern Miss in the Conference USA championship game. Houston responded with its worst performance of the season. The Cougars had season-lows in yards and points and record setting QB Keenum had his lowest rated game of the season. It will be difficult for the Cougars to be motivated for this upcoming game in the TicketCity Bowl. Especially considering that head coach Sumlin's name has been thrown around as the hottest name on the market for open coaching candidacies.

On the other side, Penn State endured arguably the worst mid-season scandal/story in the history of College Football. Longtime head coach Paterno was fired and the Nittany Lions sputtered to a 1-2 finished after starting the season 8-1. Because of the rumors of the scandal, more prestigious bowls passed on PSU and the Lions ended up here. Like Houston, it will be difficult for players to be motivated to play here after aspirations of a bigger Bowl.

QB Keenum shattered virtually every NCAA passing mark - career yards, career touchdown passes and total offense - as he threw for more than 5,000 yards for the third time in his career, along with a career-high 45 touchdown passes. However, this team hasn't faced a defense on caliber with Penn State's. PSU has the 10th best defense in the nation and 5th best scoring defense. The closest comparison would be Southern Miss' 31st ranked defense that held Houston to its lowest point & yard total this season.

Something to consider: Penn State has failed to cover 11 of its last 14 games overall and is just 1-5-1 ATS its last 7 as an underdog. Houston is 7-1 ATS its last 8 games but is 1-4 ATS its last five Bowl games.

Gator Bowl from Jacksonville
Matchup: Ohio State Buckeyes (+2) vs. Florida Gators
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPN2, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Buckeyes and Gators are used to playing in bigger postseason games, but a matchup between two storied programs like Florida and Ohio State (teamed with the recent news that former Florida coach Urban Meyer will coach next season at OSU) will certainly be motivation enough for both of these squads.

We mentioned above that Meyer will take over coaching the Buckeyes next season, but interim coach Luke Fickell will finish up this season by coaching the Bowl game. The extra month of practice should certainly help this young Buckeyes team, particularly quarterback Braxton Miller. The Big Ten freshman of the year showed strong promise and improvement while starting the final eight games, including his 335-yard, three-touchdown performance in the season-ending loss at Michigan.

The immediate concern for the Buckeyes is finding ways to score against a Gators defense that finished ninth in the nation in total defense. Ohio State had the worst passing attack in the Big Ten while Florida held opponents to fewer than 167 pass yards per game and allowed just 13 passing touchdowns all season.

After starting 4-0, Florida lost six of its next eight games and didn't beat anybody that finished the regular season with a winning record. The 6-6 mark is Florida's worst regular-season finish since 1987. The Gators averaged just 334 yards per game (102nd nationally) and averaged just 13 points per game against FBS opponents during the final eight weeks of the season.

Something to consider: Florida has won four of its last five Bowl games, including last year against Big Ten Penn State and in 2006 against Ohio State in the BCS Championship. Florida has failed to cover eight straight games while OSU has covered four straight as an underdog.

Capital One Bowl from Orlando
Matchup: Nebraska Cornhuskers (+2.5) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPN, 1:00 p.m.)

Nebraska's first season in the Big Ten had its ups and downs, but with a win here in the Capital One Bowl the Huskers would get to 10 wins and this season can be seen as a success. South Carolina had two narrow losses this season, a three-point defeat to Auburn and a closer-than-the-score-indicates 16 point loss to Arkansas.

Offensively the Huskers are pretty one-dimensional. QB Martinez and RB Burkhead lead the nation's 13th best rush-offense and have combined for 2,105 rush yards and 24 touchdowns. Martinez has never been a huge threat through the air, throwing for less than 2,000 yards and completing just 56% (12 TD and 7 INT).

South Carolina lost arguably the top RB in the nation when RB Marcus Lattimore injured his knee in week seven against Mississippi State. South Carolina's offense was averaging 36 points per game with Lattimore in the lineup, but sputtered to just 22 points per game the final six games without him. QB Shaw took over when SC dismissed starting QB Garcia midseason. Shaw performed well, completing 66% with 12 TD and 6 INT the final seven games.

Defensively the Gamecocks have the clear advantage in this game. South Carolina has the 4th best defense in the nation, 2nd best pass defense, and 13th best scoring defense. The strength is in the defensive line, where defensive ends Ingram, Clowney, and Taylor have wreaked havoc on opposing QB's all season long (combined 19.5 sacks this season).

Nebraska's Blackshirts has shown the ability to be a shutdown defense (allowed just three points to Big Ten Legends champ Michigan State), but were thoroughly dominated by the Big Ten's two best offenses in Michigan and Wisconsin. Wisconsin put up 48 points while Michigan put up 45 (both 20+ point losses for Nebraska).

Something to consider: South Carolina is 1-4 straight up and against the spread in its last five Bowl games. Nebraska is having an eerily similar finish as last season when it lost three of its final four games, including its Bowl game, after a 9-1 start. This season the Huskers are 2-2 the last four games (1-3 ATS) after a 7-1 start.

Outback Bowl from Tampa
Matchup: Michigan State Spartans (+3.5) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ABC, 1:00 p.m.)

Michigan State will try and rebound after a heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, coming up short of the Rose Bowl for the second consecutive season. Last season Sparty didn't respond well in the Capital One Bowl, losing 49-7 to Alabama. Georgia also lost in its conference championship game, losing 42-10 to #1 LSU. The Bulldogs finished with their first 10-win season since 2008 and look for their fifth Bowl win in the last six years.

Offensively, the Spartans have surged since a three-point performance on October 30th at Nebraska. Since then, Sparty is averaging 38.6 points in the past five games. QB Cousins has completed 67% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions over that span. The rush-offense has been surprisingly non-existent for most of the season. MSU ranks just 76th nationally with 143 rush yards per game.

These two squads are very similar defensively. Both squads rank in the top five of total defense and in the top 15 against both the run and the pass. Both squads are off of disappointing efforts as each allowed 42 points in the conference championship losses. Both squads can get after the opposing QB. Georgia was second in the SEC with 34 sacks while MSU led the Big Ten with 41 sacks.

Something to consider: MSU is 0-4 in Bowl games (1-3 ATS) under head coach Dantonio. That includes two double digit losses to SEC schools, including a Capital One Bowl loss to Georgia in 2008. Georgia outgained the Spartans 337-236 and the Bulldogs held Sparty to just 31 rush yards on 34 carries. MSU has the experience factor as QB Cousins and WR's Cunningham and Martin all played in that game.

Rose Bowl from Pasadena
Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers (+5) vs. Oregon Ducks
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPN, 5:00 p.m.)

Wisconsin makes its second consecutive trip to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1998-99 after last year's 21-19 loss to TCU. Oregon will make its second trip to the Rose Bowl in the last three seasons after a 26-17 loss to Ohio State in the 2009 edition. Both will be highly motivated for a different result here.

Both of these offenses couldn't be more different in scheme and style, yet so similar statistically. Oregon runs a fast-paced, no-huddle spread offense to perfection, averaging 515 yards (6th nationally) and 46 points per game (3rd). Wisconsin is more methodical at it uses a mammoth offensive line and an extremely efficient balance of run & pass to chew up the clock and keep the defense guessing. Wisconsin averages 477 yards per game (15th) and 45 points per game (4th).

Wisconsin has the 8th best defense in the nation and 6th best scoring defense. It was a bit exposed against the Spartans in the Big Ten Championship. MSU used its speed and quick hitting plays to rack up 471 yards and 39 points against UW. The Badgers' best defense, in this game, could be its offense. Their offensive line could wear on the smaller Ducks, and the ground game led by Montee Ball - who needs just two touchdowns to set the single-season FBS record - will help keep Oregon's offense off the field.

Something to consider: Oregon coach Chip Kelly has only lost six times in his three years at Oregon. In five of those losses, high-quality teams had extra time to prepare their defenses, including the last two Bowl games. Wisconsin has covered five of its last seven Bowl games - all as an underdog.

Sugar Bowl from New Orleans
Matchup: Michigan Wolverines (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPN, 8:30 p.m.)

Michigan is back in a BCS bowl for the first time in five years. A victory over the Virginia Tech Hokies would give Michigan its first BCS bowl win since the 2000 Orange Bowl. VA Tech will be making its fourth trip to a BCS Bowl in the past five seasons. The Hokies' only win in those appearances came against Cincinnati in the 2008 Orange Bowl (lost to Stanford by 28 points last season).

Michigan's QB Robinson and RB Toussaint have both rushed for over 1,000 yards and have 25 combined rushing touchdowns. Virginia Tech will do its best to stop the run and force Robinson to air it out. D-Rob is only completing 56% of his passes this season and has 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Michigan's offense gets most of the attention, but Michigan's defensive improvement from a year ago is why this squad is where it is now. The Wolves improved from 110th nationally in total defense last season to 18th this year.

Virginia Tech was easily the most surprising selection as a BCS at-large bid. The Hokies lost both of their games against Clemson this season and don't have a "marquee" win on their resume. QB Thomas has 19 touchdowns and 9 interceptions this season while RB Wilson ranks 5th in the country with 1,627 rush yards. Defensively this squad allows just 314 yards per game (13th nationally) and 17.2 points per game (8th nationally), however, much of those stats came against weak opposition.

Something to consider: Michigan is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against non-conference opponents but just 8-20 ATS against teams with a winning record. VA Tech has failed to cover nine of its last 12 games this season but has covered 14 of its last 20 as an underdog.

Best and worst conferences to bet in bowl season
By Jay Christensen
TheWizofOdds.com

Business, as the great Jim Ross of WWE fame likes to say, is about to pick up.

No more Famous Idaho Potato and Beef ‘O’ Brady’s bowls this postseason. The Louisiana Lafayettes and Temples have had their 15 seconds of fame. Move over because the big boys are ready to take center stage.

With nearly every game left on the bowl schedule featuring teams from Bowl Championship Series conferences, it’s time to look at how powerhouse conferences have fared against the pointspread the past six seasons.

First, there’s a clear winner here, and to no one’s surprise it’s the Southeastern Conference, which has gone an impressive 29-17 (63 percent) against the number. But before you put hard-earned simoleons down on the SEC, consider this — teams from the league are only 10-10 the past two seasons.

That’s right, recent history suggests the public has finally overbid SEC teams. All good things eventually come to an end and perhaps it’s time to hop off that train.

Then there’s the Big 12, regarded as the top conference this season. Old-timers remember the days when Billy Sims, Barry Sanders and Ricky Williams ran through the plains. Then Texas Tech hired Mike Leach in 2000.

Leach’s spread offense quickly became the rage. Who can forget that October night in 2004 when the pass-happy Red Raiders bludgeoned Nebraska, 70-10?

If it worked in an outpost like Lubbock, why wouldn’t it work in Stillwater or Ames?

One by one, the spread became the offense of choice in the Big 12. Nearly every Big 12 team now runs a variation of it, and there’s no doubt that it produces flashy numbers. In fact, of the top seven teams nationally in total offense, four are from the Big 12. Attractive stuff.

But when it comes to the postseason, Big 12 teams have been making left turns on a green light. Yes, it has been a wreck.

The six-year record of the Big 12 is a dismal 12-27 (30.7 percent). In the past three seasons, it’s 7-16 (30.4 percent).

Why can’t Big 12 teams turn all that regular season sizzle into postseason success? Theories abound, but the most popular centers on the layoff between the end of the regular season and the bowl games. The precision timing associated with the spread is disrupted with the four- or five-week layoff. Come bowl time, it all goes haywire.

Expectations are off the charts this postseason, and Missouri got the Big 12 off to a strong start in the Independence Bowl. But will the league be able to flex its might throughout the postseason? History says no.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is that Big East teams are 16-11-1 (59.2 percent) the past six years and 8-4 (66.6 percent) the past two. But fans remember the marquee games and in its last two BCS appearances, the Big East has been blown out — Florida 51, Cincinnati 24 in the 2010 Sugar Bowl and Oklahoma 48, Connecticut 20 in the 2011 Fiesta Bowl.

But blowouts aside, there’s value in betting the Big East.

The Big Ten has been ripped to shreds for its bowl record and it’s understandable, given a straight up mark of 13-24. Who could forget 2008, when league teams went 1-6?

But all that matters in Las Vegas is the record against the pointspread. If your only betting strategy the past six years were to bet Big Ten teams in bowls, you would be 19-18. That’s break-even territory when you factor in the vigorish.

The recent trend suggests an uptick for the league. Big Ten teams are 9-6 (60 percent) the past two years, so perhaps all that public hammering has created value for the Big Ten bettor.

While the Pacific 10 (now 12) is 15-12-1 (55.5 percent) over the six-year span, it is only 5-6 the past two. Having USC sitting on the sidelines because of NCAA probation hasn’t helped.

Then there is the Atlantic Coast, which is 18-22-2 (45 percent). Missouri battered North Carolina in the Independence, so already it’s shaping up as yet another miserable postseason for the league.

But look up ACC fans. March Madness starts in three months.