2011 NFL Divisional Playoffs: Jets vs. Patriots Picks & Predictions
By Anthony Rome
(The Spread) - Just over a month ago, the New England Patriots squashed the New York Jets 45-3 in Foxboro. On Sunday, the Jets will have their shot at revenge when they take on their division rivals at 4:30PM ET. Continue reading for odds, picks and more on this 2011 NFL Divisional Round Playoff game.
View Current NFL Divisional Round Playoff Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com, the Patriots are 9-point favorites over the Jets on Sunday. The over/under total for this game is currently sitting at 44 points.
The Jets upset the Colts last week to improve to 12-5 on the year and according to latest NFL trends, they’re now 10-7 against the spread. They’re also 7-2 on the road this season, where they’ve covered in six of nine games.
The Patriots had last week off after earning a first-round bye and enter Sunday’s game with a 14-2 record. They’re 10-5-1 against the number this season, which includes a 4-3-1 ATS record at home.
The over has covered in 12 of the Jets’ 17 games this season, including in eight of their nine road games. The over has also hit in 13 of the Patriots’ 16 games this season, including in seven of eight home games.
NFL Divisional Playoff Free Pick:
It’s tempting to pick the Patriots and lay the points after they slaughtered the Jets 45-3 in early December. But these two teams know each other well and the Pats have a tendency to look past their opponents at times (see games against the Browns and Packers this season). That said, we’re not comfortable backing Mark Sanchez and the Jets, even though they’re getting 9 points in this contest. That’s why we think there’s more value in the over, which is a combined 25-8 in these teams’ games this season. We know that the Patriots can score in a hurry and there’s a chance that if this game gets real ugly, that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will run up the score and cover the 44 points on their own. As proof last week, the Jets either get into shootouts or their offense sputters and they have to rely on their ground game to keep their opponent on the sidelines. But their running game took a massive hit when Damien Woody was placed on IR earlier this week. We don’t think they’ll be able to run the ball and seeing as how the Pats’ secondary can be had, we see a shootout. Our pick is the over 44.
2010 NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF FREE PICK: JETS/PATRIOTS OVER 44