2011 Schedule Analysis
By Joe Nelson
While there is still plenty of excitement building in the 2010-11 NFL season with the divisional round of the playoffs this week, fans of teams that are already out of contention only have next season to look forward to. Of course there is a chance that season may not happen but there is a lot that can be determined just by looking at the schedules for each team and division next season. The actual timing of the schedule will not be announced until the spring, but we do know the opponents and the locations.
Schedule analysis is a critical and often overlooked factor in the NFL. If you saw our analysis last spring we made several projections that proved true this season even though there were many personnel moves to be sorted out. We called for big improvement for the Chiefs and the Falcons and also saw trouble ahead for the Vikings and 49ers. It is early but here are a few things that we can take from a brief glance at the upcoming match-ups for the 2011 season.
Bounce Back for the NFC East: It was definitely a down season for the NFC East, the glamour division in the conference. All four teams were pegged as playoff contenders heading into this season and none of the four teams are still playing at this point. The division does draw the very tough AFC East for four games, but it hits the jackpot by facing all four NFC West teams. Look for improved performances in terms of record from at least three of the four teams next season. The best draw will belong to the Redskins, catching New England and the NY Jets at home (The Giants and Cowboys play those two on the road) while also drawing transitioning teams Arizona, San Francisco, and Minnesota in home games outside of the division. None of the road games appear overly daunting with out of division match-ups with St. Louis, Seattle, Carolina, Buffalo, and Miami. There will be a lot of big decisions to be made for the Redskins and they likely will enter the season ranked as the fourth-best team in the NFC East, but don’t be surprised if they finish in the top two with a big edge in schedule.
AFC North Dominance: Pittsburgh and Baltimore meet this week to see which team plays in the AFC championship and the Ravens and Steelers should both be dangerous teams next season. The Browns and Bengals could be in transition, but both teams will be candidates for big improvements next year. Like the NFC East, the AFC North will get to play all four NFC West teams. The Rams and Seahawks potentially could be better next season, but San Francisco is going through a transition and the Cardinals have big questions at QB, so it will likely again be a very weak quartet. Adding to the benefits for the AFC North is matching up with all four AFC South teams. That division as a whole will be very mediocre as the Colts clearly are not the team they used to be and will face several big questions this off-season. Houston, Tennessee, and Jacksonville are all sticking with their coaches despite marginal seasons and the outlook is not promising for a big leap from any of the three. The North could clean up in these games and emerge as the top division in the AFC. The best draw may go to Cleveland as new coach Pat Shurmer will step into a favorable situation. The home schedule will be excellent with Jacksonville, Tennessee, Miami, St. Louis, and Seattle visiting and there are road games with Houston, Oakland, Arizona, and San Francisco. With that schedule it is not hard to envision Cleveland reaching 8-8 or better. Despite being a first-place team this year, Pittsburgh’s draw looks slightly more favorable than Baltimore’s so the division standings may not change much, but every team could see an improved record.
Tough Fall for the Seahawks: If they can score another big upset this week the Seahawks will be the story of the season, but they better enjoy it as next year’s schedule looks very difficult. 7-9 could again win the NFC West as the Seattle and the other teams in the division will face the four NFC East teams and the AFC North teams. The Seahawks have road games at Dallas, NY Giants, Chicago, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh and will also have to host Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Atlanta. No team draws a great schedule in the NFC West and while the Rams will likely be the trendy pick to win the division, St. Louis is the only team in the division that plays New Orleans and Green Bay, a tough consolation prize for being second place this year. Don’t rule out San Francisco or Arizona rising to the top of the division, but it will likely be with a record of 9-7 at best as the division will have a hard time improving its reputation next year.
A Viking Rebound: Minnesota was dealt a very tough 2010 schedule and while there were many other issues with the team it is unlikely any different QB scenario would have played out any more favorably given the early season gauntlet. If there is a prolonged lockout, the Vikings will be the team hurt the most as there are a lot of things to figure out with a new coaching staff and big questions at key positions. However, if things are solidified early Minnesota will benefit from a fourth-place schedule and a favorable path to get back into NFC North contention. The Vikings will have home games out of the division with Arizona, Denver, and Oakland and road tests at Carolina, Washington, and Kansas City do not look overly threatening. The NFC North has to play the NFC South so there will be tough match-ups for each team in the division, but Minnesota will face a benefit for losing the tiebreaker with the Lions, facing Arizona and Washington instead of Dallas and San Francisco.
Once the actual schedules are released there will be a lot more to dissect, but do not understate how important the schedule is in determining the success of failure of a season.