NFC East Forecast
By Brad Diamond
Playbook.com
1. Philadelphia (8-8)…It’s been a difficult summer for the Eagles head coach Andy Reid losing his son Garrett at such a young age. The organization and players have given Big Red and his family wonderful support as we all look to move on to the more pleasant experiences in Life. Early last season the Green and White became the target on the wall as QB Michael Vick labeled his flock the “The Dream Team.” In 2012 the Birds play a challenging AFC schedule including, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. The recent draft should help support our “Dark Horse” forecast as youngsters such as Fletcher Cox (DT), Mychal Kendricks (LB) and Brandon Boykin should see much playing time. The one draftee that maybe the surprise is QB Nick Foles (6-5, 243) from Arizona who broke many records (4,334) in the Pac-12. On the negative side the Eagles lost starting offensive tackle Jason Peters for the season. Still their #4 rated offense will improve with more depth at running back and wide receiver. Philadelphia’s #8 defense held 8 opponents to 19 or less points, while the special teams finished #2 in the division. If Philadelphia is to win the East and challenge for the Super Bowl they will need to replicate their statistical edges, while improving depth on both the offensive and defensive line. Finally, in the preseason opener against Pittsburgh sloppy coverage in the defensive secondary continued to be an issue. FINAL FORECAST: 11-5
2. New York (13-7)…The Giants won six straight down the stretch defeating New England 21-17 to take home the Super Bowl Championship. It was their second super finish in five years, both times defeating New England. In 2011 the New Yorkers outscored the opposition by 13 points per game. One statistic that worries us is the regressing running numbers as the Giants in 2007 went 12-5 with 5.0 yards per carry average. Last year, despite the success, the stat hit a four year low of 3.6 yards per rush. Additionally, the defensive line had some trouble stopping the run at 4.5 yards per carry for the opposition. During the regular season the Giants allowed running attacks 100+ yards in 11 of 16 games. Special teams ranked #15 last season, but in camp the New Yorkers have focused on improving this unit. The Giants put together a solid draft, but more importantly secured the “steal” of the event with WR Ruben Randle out of LSU at #63. The kid has great hands and runs sharp patterns. This time around New York can’t have a slump in the middle of the season as the division has improved. FINAL FORECAST: 10-6
3. Dallas (8-8)…The Cowboys were expected to improve greatly last year, but faltered at the end losing back-to-back games to Philadelphia and the New York Giants. In his third campaign head coach Jason Garrett (13-11) needs to improve their #14 ranked defense. I believe the stop troops were the cause of the 2-5 late run that destroyed their playoff chances. Two scheduling items of importance, the Cowboys play their last 5 of 7 games at home. Plus they face Carolina, Cincinnati and Seattle on the road all winnable games. So, if DeMarco Murray comes on at running back and they find a quality #3 receiver to back up Dez Bryant and Miles Austin there is an outside chance Dallas can challenge in the East. Currently, in the Vegas hot spots Dallas is around 3-1 to win the Division. FINAL FORECAST: 9-7
4. Washington (5-11)…What the hell is going on in D. C.? Hey, we know it is election year and the combatants are lining up for a scurry to the finish. So, the interest is heightened in the capital city. But, what about the beloved ‘Skins? After a horrible season, losing 10 of their last 12 the teepee seems to have become dysfunctional. The draft was solid bringing in the future of the offense in QB Robert Griffin III from Baylor. However, the immediate need is the offensive line. Coach Mike Shanahan (11-21) in his third year must turn the program around or he could be gone as soon as seasons end. In 4 of the last 5 games in 2011 the defense allowed 33 or more points. In the summer the coach has been touting the quality and depth of his defense line. But, this basically the same defense that finished #13 last year. In 2012 Washington plays into a more difficult schedule, especially down the stretch. FINAL FORECAST: 5-11
2012 NFC East Division Preview
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
Long considered the ‘beast’ of all NFL divisions, the NFC East features no less than three Pro Bowl quarterbacks, and one hoping to join the triumvirate sometime soon.
In fact, three-fourths of the teams residing in this division, sans hopeful Washington, are projected to end the season on a winning note by Las Vegas oddsmakers.
Leading the charge this season is Philadelphia, the one team that has appeared in more NFC playoff games since 2000. The Eagles’ 19 postseason games trails only New England’s 22 for league honors over the same span. Together, the NFC East has combined to play 42 games in the playoffs in the 2000’s, two more than the AFC North.
With only the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants in this division having earned a playoff berth in 2011, expect the NFC East to play with vehemence this season.
Meanwhile, these ‘beasts’ have rewarded their backers since 2000 when they’ve dressed up as road dogs, going 146-110-7 ATS collectively, including 31-13 when playing off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.
While they may beat up on each other with a fairly high degree of regularity, these NFC East creatures of habit certainly command the respect of players, both on the field and at the betting windows.
Note: Team writeups by this author were excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
DALLAS
Team Theme: AS JERRY’S WORLD TURNS
One of the best football books ever written, ‘The Greatest Team Ever’ authored by our good friend Norm Hitzges, chronicled the accomplishments of the Dallas Cowboys during the 1990’s. It tells the tale of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’ purchase of the team in 1989 and its meteoric success thereafter. Three decades later, and with only one win in eight playoff games since 1996, Jones’ world has been rocked. Sure, he still owns America’s team, and a posh billion-dollar football stadium, but what he doesn’t have is a place among the hierarchy in the league today – and it’s killing him. Jones is banking on quarterback Tony Romo to stop the bleeding. Romo enjoyed his best season ever last year with 31 touchdowns. What Romo hasn’t had is a 1,000-yard running back since 2006 so he’s hoping DeMarco Murray can be that man in 2012. What Romo needs more than anything is the return to full health of WR’s Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. Rob Ryan’s defense features super stud DE DeMarcus Ware and a draft loaded with defensive talent. It’s all enough to keep Jones’ head spinning.
PLAY ON: at NY Giants (9/5)
STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS as Monday night favorites of 7 or less points.
IN THE STATS: The Cowboys have won the stats in 34 of 50 games the L3Y.
NY GIANTS
Team Theme: ELI’S COMING (DOWN)
Following a two-year hiatus from the playoffs, QB Eli Manning won his second Super Bowl MVP award in five years when he led the Giants to an exciting 21-17 win over New England in the NFL’s final game last season. As a result, Big Blue takes on a new persona in 2012 – that of a defending Super Bowl champion. While the rings are nice, our advice is simple: look to fade the champs wherever possible this season. By carrying the infamous Super Bowl bulls-eye squarely in their backs, the Giants become a prime-time game on virtually every opponent’s schedule this season. In addition, the G-Men were hit hard by salary cap losses with RB Brandon Jacobs, WR Mario Manningham, CB Aaron Ross and OT Kareem McKenzie, among others, departing. Complicating matters was a defense that lived largely on reputation, but fell short on performance last year as they regressed 57 YPG from the 2010 stop-unit’s numbers. Also lost in the shuffle were QB coach Mike Sullivan to Tampa Bay and OL coach Jack Bicknell Jr. to Kansas City. With that, we’ll look to fade this year’s PLAYBOOK cover boy more often than not this season.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Philadelphia (12/30)
STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Eli Manning is 22-5 SU in October in his NFL career.
IN THE STATS: The Giants won the stats in each of their final 8 games last season.
PHILADELPHIA
Team Theme: IT’S GETTING HOT IN HERE
When the Eagles assembled the ‘dream team’ last season, they immediately became the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. A 4-8 start put a lid on that dream and immediately turned up the heat on head coach Andy Reid’s seat. Still, Reid enters his 14th season with the Eagles excited with the way his team closed down the stretch (4-0 SU and ATS final four games) while also giddy over an excellent draft. Offensively, the Green Birds take a back seat to few behind dual threat QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy and WR’s DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Admittedly, the defense struggled early on under new DC Juan Castillo, but held three of its final four foes to season-low – or 2nd-low – yards to finish the season. The secondary allowed 27 touchdowns and was slow to assimilate Castillo’s playbook. Thus, the feeling on the team is the trade of CB Asante Samuel and the release of backup QB Vince Young is addition by subtraction. Meanwhile, fuel for the Bunsen burner is standing by.
PLAY ON: vs. Atlanta (10/28)
STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Michael Vick is 1-6 SU and ATS off a SU and ATS win versus a .700 or greater foe off a SU and ATS win.
IN THE STATS: The Eagles were 13-3 ‘ITS’ last season, including 7-1 away.
WASHINGTON
Team Theme: SHOW ME THE MONEY
After starting 11-21 in his first two seasons in the nation’s capitol, Mike Shanahan realized now was the time to snap the rubber band and mortgage Dan Snyder’s money for a dynamic quarterback. He did just that when he traded up in the draft to secure the services of Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III. As a result, RG3 is the new face of the program and hopefully represents the end to a run of 21 QB’s who have started games for the Skins the last 19 years (with three playoff appearances). Wide receivers Pierre Garcon (Colts) and Josh Morgan (49ers) were brought in to help kick-start the transition. Meanwhile, DC Jim Haslett’s defense took a major step forward last season when it improved 49 YPG. In fact, the Redskins were the only team in the league to improve their stats both offensively and defensively yet regress SU and ATS last season. With the front seven returning intact, the onus now falls on the offense and its coveted quarterback. With a heavy investment now in place, the squint-eyed Shanahan should be sleeping better these days.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Baltimore (12/9)
STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Only two QB’s have ever won a Heisman Trophy and a Super Bowl game, Jim Plunkett in 1970 and Roger Staubach in 1963.
IN THE STATS: The Redskins are 3-13 away ‘ITS’ under Shanahan.
NFC North Outlook
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Ask the oddsmakers in Las Vegas which NFL division they hold in the highest regard this season and their answer will likely surprise: the NFC North.
Once known as the league's Black-and-Blue division, the NFC Central has softened since becoming the NFC North. That's confirmed by the fact teams in this loop have lost more games than they've won since division realignment in 2002, going 316-348 in all games. Even poorer against winning opposition, they've produced a lethargic 104-185 record against teams with a win percentage better than .500, including 72-126 against winning foes outside the division.
Making matters worse is the fact that they are just 11-22 straight up all-time against the AFC South, its designated non-conference division rival this season.
So why is it Vegas is enamored with this year's edition, you ask?
For openers the four teams residing in the NFC North own a collective league-high total of 36 projected victories this campaign, headlined by 12 wins posted on the Green Bay Packers. With the Detroit Lions (9.5 wins) and the Chicago Bears (8.5 wins) next in line, only the Minnesota Vikings (6 wins) look to be a losing team this season.
Looking back at last year's NFL QB Ratings it's easy to understand the expected win totals. Led by former MVP Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers' top rating of 122.5 in 2011, the division produced three signal callers in the upper half of the rankings, with Detroit's Matthew Stafford finishing number 5 at 97.2 and Chicago's Jay Cutler number 13 at 85.7.
So, will it be black-and-blue or sacre bleu for the NFC North this season? Stay tuned.
Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.
CHICAGO
Team Theme: STATUS WOE
It was perhaps the quietest celebration of a five-game win skein in NFL history last season when Chicago walked off Soldier Field with a 31-20 win over San Diego. News that QB Jay Cutler had suffered a season-ending thumb injury had settled in. A week later, star RB Matt Forte suffered a season-ending knee injury and just like that a promising 7-3 start fell apart like a new bride's first cake. Backup QB Caleb Hanie went 0-4 (with a 41.8 passer rating) and the Bears were toast. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice replaces Mike Martz and the former Vikings head coach knows better than most the importance of keeping Cutler out of harm's way. The problem is issues on the offensive line were not addressed: none of four key offensive acquisitions or two offensive players acquired in the draft are linemen. Instead, they are banking on WR Brandon Marshall and RB Michael Bush, and healthy returns by Cutler and Forte, to juice the attack. Through it all, an aging defense and Lovie Smith hang on for dear life.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Detroit (10/22)
Stat You Will Like The Bears have allowed 105 sacks the last two years.
IN THE STATS: The Bears are 9-31 'ITS' at home the last five regular seasons.
DETROIT
Team Theme: THE ROAR IS BACK
After their first playoff berth since 1999, and enjoying their best-ever offensive production last year behind healthy franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford, the Lions are growling for more. After retaining key components, Detroit was unable to do much in the free agency market but that was not a high priority. Behind a veteran offensive line, priority-one is keeping Stafford upright (5,038 yards and 41 TDs). An armada of wide receivers, led by the indomitable Calvin Johnson, is next to relentless. The Achilles' heel is a running game that averaged just 92 RYPG last season. In their defense, both Jahvid Best (concussion) and Mikel Leshoure (torn Achilles tendon) were hurt. Added production from the backfield will only make the offense more lethal. Head coach Jim Schwartz realizes the defense needs to get back to 2010's standard. As expected, DT Ndamukong Suh hit a sophomore wall when his tackles and sacks were cut in half. Along with a disappointing effort from fellow tackle Nick Fairley, the Lions need more output from these two in order to post repeat playoff appearances for the first time in 17 years.
PLAY ON: vs. Green Bay (11/18) - *KEY as a dog
Stat You Will Like: Detroit is 0-8 SU and ATS in its last eight games on Thanksgiving Day.
IN THE STATS: The Lions were 11-5 'ITS' last season.
GREEN BAY
Team Theme: THE DEFENSE RESTS
As we pointed out last year, the hands-down 'Leader of the Pack' is QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers enjoyed a staggering 122.5 quarterback rating in 2011, coming on the heels of 101.8, 104.4, and 105.5 ratings the previous three seasons. So how is it, off a career-best performance from the league MVP and a franchise high 15 wins, the Packers went one-and-out (as a No. 1 seed at Lambeau Field, no less) in the playoffs last season, you ask? Simple, we reply. The defense came to a complete halt, surrendering 103 YPG more last year than it did in its 2011 Super Bowl season, including a mind-boggling 70 passes of 20+ yards. Green Bay's first step to recovery was drafting six defensive players with its first six picks in this year's draft, including pass rusher deluxe Nick Perry from USC. Perry's presence figures to aide LB Clay Matthews who finished up with a career-low six sacks in 2011. Surprisingly, no changes were made to the defensive staff. Losing OC Joe Philbin to the Dolphins might be another matter, though.
PLAY ON: at NY Giants (11/25) - *Key as a dog
Stat You Will Like: The Packers allowed the most passing yards in NFL history last season.
IN THE STATS: The Packers were 6-11 'ITS' last season.
MINNESOTA
Team Theme: STARTING OVER
After attempting to switch gears from Brett Favre to Donovan McNabb, the Vikings have had a heavy dose of cold water splashed on their face, suffering a franchise-high 13 losses last season - while winning just nine games combined the last two seasons. This year a new game plan has been laid out and building blocks for the future are in place. New GM Rick Speilman has targeted a group of core players and is rolling the dice with them. Second-year quarterback Chris Ponder is one of the building blocks. The team remains confident in his abilities despite the fact they have won only one of the 10 games Ponder has started and finished. First round choice Matt Kalil was selected with the 4th pick of the draft and will be asked to become Ponder's bodyguard. More important is whether star RB Adrian Peterson can completely recover from ACL surgery as he once did in college at Oklahoma. After regressing each of the last three seasons, it's imperative the defense regains its former groove. Let the process begin.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Green Bay (12/30)
Stat You Will Like: The Vikings have won one division game the last two years.
IN THE STATS: The Vikings are 16-6 'ITS' at home in their last 22 home games.
NFC Division Winners
By ASAwins.com
As always, we are looking for the best value when we pick our divisional champions. The team we pick may not be the “favorite” or have the best odds, but we feel that the teams that we select have the greatest value.
ASA’s NFC East Champion - New York Giants (+200)
Despite being the lone playoff team from the NFC East and winning the Super Bowl last season, the defending champions aren’t even favored to win their own division this year. The Eagles have the best odds while the Giants and Cowboys have the same. Sure the Giants were fortunate to get into the playoffs last season at 9-7, but New York really put things together late in the season, riding a confident hot streak to a Super Bowl victory – much like the 2010 Green Bay Packers did. Green Bay barely made the playoffs as a Wild Card team, but got confident and hot at the right time. They then rode that confidence to a 15-1 record the next season. Expect a confident Giants squad to do the same. The Giants hitched their wagon to a scorching Eli Manning to their 6-0 finish last season (including playoffs). Manning averaged 298.3 passing yards per game with 13 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. However, the biggest catalyst for their Super Bowl run was probably their defensive improvement – mainly the pass-rush. Despite playing against some of the top offenses over the final six games (Dallas, Atlanta, Green Bay, New England), New York allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 59% of their passes for a modest 247 yards per game with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. NYG also averaged 3.7 sacks per game and allowed opponents to score just 14 points per game (down from 26.6 PPG over the first 15 games of the season). Early reports from camp suggest that HC Tom Coughlin has his players extremely focused and motivated to carry over last season’s success into 2012-13. Take the Giants to win the NFC East this season.
ASA’s NFC North Champion - Green Bay Packers (-300)
Green Bay finished one of the best regular season’s in NFL history in 2011-12. The Pack went 15-1 while scoring 35 points per game (1st in the NFL) and gaining 405 yards per game (3rd). QB Aaron Rodgers added an MVP to his resume after tossing 45 touchdowns and just six interceptions and set an NFL record with a 122.5 quarterback rating. It looked as though the Packers were headed for a second consecutive trip to the Super Bowl. Instead, the Giants caught the Pack playing their worst game of the season in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Green Bay didn’t lose much from last year’s prolific squad, while also adding some strong pieces this offseason – most importantly on defense – and we expect the Pack to be right in the thick of the Super Bowl chase come season’s end. GB’s defense set the record for most passing yards allowed in a season in 2011 and they allowed the most yards per game overall. The main goal this season was to add pass rushers to get more pressure on the opposing QB (ranked 27th in the NFL with just 29 sacks last season) and take the heat off of their secondary. GM Ted Thompson used his first six draft picks to upgrade the defense. With the first two selections, GB took OLB Nick Perry out of USC and DE/DT Jerel Worthy out of Michigan State, both of whom have high motors and are expected to have an instant impact from day one. Offensively, the Packers retained all off their playmakers and as long as Rodgers remains healthy, this unit shouldn’t miss a beat in 2012. Take the Packers as your NFC North Champions in 2012.
2012 NFC South Division Preview
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
If you are a vegan, like suddenly gaunt former President Bill Clinton, chances are you are likely a devotee of the NFC West. If you like barbeque, Cajun jambalaya and southern fried chicken, then the NFC South is probably more to your liking.
This division has been cooking up a winning recipe a lot lately. Atlanta has made four playoff appearances since 2000, Carolina and Tampa Bay three, while New Orleans tops the loop with six postseason paychecks, winning the 2009 cook-off when they stunned Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLIV.
And whatever you do don’t underestimate the drawls of starting quarterbacks residing in this southern division, namely Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, Carolina’s Cam Newton, New Orleans’ Drew Brees and Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman. Collectively they have shined as starters in this league when playing either away (81-60-5 ATS) or off a loss (64-38-4 ATS).
Incidentally, life on the division road has been particularly kind to members of this division as evidenced by its 71-48 ATS mark since the league realigned divisions in 2002. When taking to the division road against opponents off back-to-back losses they respond with aplomb, going 19-6 ATS.
Yes, there’s lots of tantalizing hors d’oeuvres to munch on when sizing up this division and, while it may not be health food, its pretty much finger licking good.
Note: Team writeups by this author were excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
ATLANTA
Team Theme: THREE TIMES A CHARM
The Falcons flew into the playoffs for a second consecutive trip last season, the first time ever in franchise history. New offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, former Arizona State head coach, looks to make Matt Ryan and Julio Jones a more lethal force but will need better protection as the big eaters allowed 26 sacks and 84 quarterback hits last year. Atlanta is hoping the top two picks in this year’s draft – G Peter Knoz, Wisconsin and T Lamar Holmes, Southern Miss – in addition to FA G Vince Manuwai, are part of the remedy. They will work with new OL coach Pat Hill, former boss at Fresno State. Along with RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzalez, the Dirty Birds are loaded with offensive weaponry. Meanwhile, new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan comes over from Miami looking to improve on the Falcons’ 29th ranking in 3rd-down defense. While the loss of three-time Pro Bowl LB Lofa Tatupu for the season with a torn pectoral muscle hurts, the acquisition of Pro-Bowl CB Asante Samuel solidifies the secondary. Should all of the new pieces fall into place, a playoff hat trick could be in the offing.
PLAY ON: at New Orleans (11/11) - *KEY
Stat You Will Like: After leading the league in 4th-down conversions in 2010, the Falcons slipped to No. 16 last season.
IN THE STATS: Atlanta was 7-1-1 ‘ITS’ in its final nine games last season.
CAROLINA
Team Theme: AMERICAN IDOL
It’s easy to understand why fans in Carolina idolize Cam Newton. Witness Newton’s work log the last two years. Auburn Before: 8-5. Auburn After: 14-0, national champions. Carolina Before: 2-14. Carolina After: 6-10. To top if off, Newton set an NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (14) while also managing to throw for more than 4,000 yards. It’s no wonder the Panthers more than doubled their scoring average while increasing offensive production 132 YPG. The only reason these Cats failed to become a .500 squad was a defense that regressed badly, ranking 24th against the pass and 25th versus the rush. As a result, former Eagles defensive coordinator Sean McDermott was brought in to patch a defense that continually put Newton in a hole. With a laundry list full of needs, McDermott opted to tackle a weakness at the linebacker position, rather than a glaring need for a pass rusher, when he selected Luke Kuechly of Boston College with the 9th pick of the draft. The feeling here is Kuechly will be a franchise player for years to come.
PLAY ON: at Atlanta (9/30) - *KEY
Stat You Will Like: The Panthers are 67-9 ATS in their franchise history in games where they score at least 27 points, including 30-2 ATS in division games.
IN THE STATS: The Panthers are 1-17 SU in games in which they’ve been outgained the L2Y.
NEW ORLEANS
Team Theme: SAINTS MISBEHAVIN’
A storm with the impact of Katrina hit New Orleans this offseason and the damage was nearly as devastating once word got out of a bounty program inside the Saints locker room. It resulted in the suspension of coach Sean Payton and LB Jonathon Vilma for the 2012 season. Lost in the ugliness was the Saints’ third NFC South title in six years along with a franchise-record three straight double-digit win seasons. Meanwhile, Drew Brees’ 5,476 passing yards broke Dan Marino’s record while tossing 46 touchdowns en route to being named the NFL Offensive Player of the Year for the second time in four years. Somehow, despite the gaudy numbers established, Brees remained unsigned at press time, locked in ugly contract negotiations. Perhaps the biggest offseason loss was Pro Bowl G Carl Nicks who signed with Tampa Bay. With DC Gregg Williams gone after being at the center of the bounty controversy, Steve Spagnuolo steps in to direct the defense. Assistant coach Joe Vitt will handle head coaching duties – after he serves a six-game bounty suspension. Not exactly the behavior you’d expect from a cast of Saints!
PLAY ON: vs. San Francisco (11/25) - *KEY
Stat You Will Like: The Saints broke an NFL record with 7,474 total yards in 2011.
IN THE STATS: The Saints allowed five foes season-high, or 2nd-high, yards last season.
TAMPA BAY
Team Theme: OLD SCHOOL
After going from 10 wins to four last season, the Bucs decided a change was in order. Exit stage left, Raheem Morris, and enter center stage Greg Schiano. While Schiano makes a quantum leap from the college ranks (Rutgers) to the NFL, he brings a reputation for discipline, organization and an old-fashion football approach – a ‘180’ from the in-your-face approach of Morris. Schiano last worked in the NFL as a defensive backs coach for the Bears in 1998 and he realizes a lot has changed since then. He brings in new offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan to iron out flaws developed last season by one of the brightest young quarterbacks in the league, Josh Freeman, who dropped 20 lbs this offseason. Sullivan, who worked the past two seasons with Eli Manning, will have the luxury of free agents Carl Nicks, a Pro Bowl guard from New Orleans, and Vincent Jackson, a former Pro Bowl wide receiver from San Diego. On the other side of the ball, the Bucs signed free agent CB Eric Wright and used four of their first five draft picks on defense. All old school moves highly endorsed by Schiano.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Carolina (9/9)
Stat You Will Like: The Bucs are 4-12 SU and 1-15 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing with revenge.
IN THE STATS: The Bucs’ only two stats wins last year were vs. the Colts and the Packers.
Chicago Bears Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Chicago Bears
The Bears were two completely different teams in 2011. The ‘good’ Bears went 7-3 to open up the campaign. The ‘bad’ Bears went 1-5 to close out the season after a bevy of injuries decimated their roster, most notably the season ender to starting QB Jay Cutler.
Chicago finished the season with an 8-8 SU and 8-8 ATS mark while going 9-7 to the Over. They were outgained by 0.3 yards per play and finished with a +2 turnover margin against a much tougher than average slate of opponents.
2012 Issues:
Mike Martz failed miserably as the offensive coordinator in Detroit and in San Francisco prior to his arrival in Chicago. No surprise that Martz’s offense failed with the Bears as well, leading to his resignation following the disastrous close to their campaign.
New offensive coordinator Mike Tice is the former Vikings head coach, assistant head coach/offense in Jacksonville and the offensive line coach here in Chicago under Martz for the last two seasons. His new offense is designed to maximize the Bears big play ability while getting the ball out of Jay Cutler’s hands quickly.
The Bears are loaded with top notch skill position talent, bringing in receiving weapons Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery in the offseason. Their biggest weakness in recent years has been on the offensive line; still very much a problematic unit heading into the 2012 campaign.
The Bears still have a reputation as a top notch defensive ballclub, and earned three pro bowl berths on the defensive side of the ball last year. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli operates a relatively conservative Cover-2 scheme that dates back to Lovie Smith’s tenure as linebackers coach under Tony Dungy in Tampa Bay 15 years ago.
But Chicago’s best defensive players are all over the age of 30; an aging unit. And the Bears have suffered multiple key defensive injuries repeatedly in recent years; potentially a cause for concern again in 2012.
Betting Markets:
There’s only one team that can match Buffalo in terms of betting marketplace support so far this offseason – these Bears. We’ve seen a flood of money come on the Bears Over their season win total, in part because of their much easier schedule in 2012. First the Over 8.5’s got bought up, then many of the Over 9’s. You can still find Chicago Over 9 out there, but O/U 9.5 has become the prevailing number.
Best of the NFC East
Nnellysports.com
The NFC East produced last year’s Super Bowl champion with the New York Giants delivering a great postseason run. Had that not occurred however, it would have certainly been viewed as a very down year for the premier division in the NFL. This year optimism is high for all four teams and it could be another tight race. Here are some predictions for the 2012 NFL season and who will be the best in the NFC East.
Best Team: Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants are the Super Bowl champions but New York was negative in point differential in the regular season. The Eagles, despite being 8-8, were +68 and really played well down the stretch after a horrible start to the season. The Eagles lost five games by seven points or less and the three of the losses on the season came in games where Michael Vick didn’t play or was knocked out of the game. The Eagles were the best team in the division in division games going 5-1 including winning all three division road games but Philadelphia had to face a tougher schedule than the rest of the division after finishing in first place in 2010. Everything will depend on Michael Vick’s health but the offense has a lot of potential and good balance and the defense should be the most complete unit in the division after allowing by far the fewest points in the division last season.
Best ‘OVER’ Win Totals Bet: Washington Redskins
The Redskins are the pick by default as the numbers on the other three teams are certainly inflated. With a rookie quarterback expectations need to be grounded but plenty of rookie quarterbacks have delivered strong seasons on winning teams in recent years. Washington has a chance to get off to a decent start, catching the Saints in week 1 when New Orleans may be feeling the effects of a nightmare off-season and the recent hurricane and then catching winnable games with St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay. Washington’s defense was respectable last season but on offense the shuffling quarterbacks and the injuries in the backfield eventually took a significant toll. This team beat the Giants twice last season and while the schedule is challenging with the AFC North and NFC South teams on the schedule the Redskins have a fourth place draw and the upside to deliver an encouraging season.
Best ‘UNDER’ Win Totals Bet: Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is going to be overvalued every season and the Cowboys already are fighting a lengthy injury report. It is not clear that the offense can return to form and there are big question marks in the running game. Dallas likely will have the worst defense in this division and the schedule starts out with very difficult games, opening at New York and then at Seattle in the first two weeks. The Bears, Ravens, Panthers, and Falcons, as well as a second game with New York will fill in the first eight games. As we’ve seen in the past, a slow start can spell a lot of drama and distractions for this heavily scrutinized franchise and the competition in this division simply looks too tough with three teams that have more promise than Dallas.
Best ATS Performer: New York Giants
The Giants will lose as favorites several times this season but New York also seems to rise to the challenge and play its best in the biggest games. New York was the only team in this division with a winning ATS record last season and despite being the Super Bowl champions this is a team that is facing constant doubts, as many, me included, don’t feel they will win this division. A difficult schedule could lead to a weaker record early in the year and value could grow on a New York team that at its best can beat anyone. The Giants also went 4-0 against the AFC last season and New York is not the type of team that will face huge favorite spreads as the offense can be quite inconsistent.
Best Team to Fade: Dallas Cowboys
Dallas was just 5-10-1 ATS last season and it could be another difficult year in Dallas despite the usual optimism. This team has simply been passed up in overall talent and this was a very poor defensive team against the pass last year. Dallas went 3-1 in the preseason which could lead to some elevated spreads and even in wins last season Dallas had to squeak by, winning twice in overtime and featuring four games won by three or fewer points. The schedule is even tougher this year as being a third place team has minimal benefit when the teams drawn will be the emerging Seahawks and a dangerous Bears team in addition to the AFC North and NFC South, a group of eight teams that is about as strong as any two divisions in the NFL.
Best ‘OVER’ team: New York Giants
With the way the New York defensive line came together last season this team has a reputation as a strong defensive team. It really is not the case as the Giants allowed 25 points per game last season with only four teams in the NFC allowing more points. New York will rely on Ahmad Bradshaw to carry the rushing load but he has rarely played an injury-free season and the Giants will likely need to be a pass-first team in most match-ups. For the season the ‘over’ has had the edge in Giants games for four straight seasons and not much should change as New York’s defense will give up some big plays but also will force some big plays to set up scoring plays as well.
Best ‘UNDER’ team: Washington Redskins
Washington scored fewer points than everyone except for Tampa Bay and St. Louis in the NFC last season, averaging 18 points per game. Adding a new QB can help in that regard but it will certainly take some time and Robert Griffin had to battle several injuries in college before his great 2011 season. Washington will be focused on running the ball and creating favorable situations for Griffin to avoid mistakes and this is still the weakest team in the division at the wide receiver position. Washington’s defense was much better than the 5-11 record indicated last season and the Redskins will likely play a lot of tight lower scoring games this season.
Minnesota Vikings 2012 Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were a mess in 2011, both on and off the field; the single worst season in franchise history. By my numbers – based on my power rating of each of their opponents on the week the game was played – Minnesota faced the single toughest schedule in the NFL. They did not fare well against that imposing slate, just 3-13 SU, 6-8-2 ATS.
The Vikings overall stats didn’t look too bad for a 3-13 team that faced the toughest schedule in the league with a rookie QB behind center for most of the campaign. They were outgained by a relatively modest 0.4 yards per play and finished -3 in turnovers. Minnesota was an Over team last year, cashing Overs at a 10-6 clip.
2012 Issues:
Let’s start with the coaching staff. Head coach Leslie Frazier and offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave are already on the hot seat in only their second full season on the job – right there with Norv Turner in San Diego as the hottest seat in the NFL right now.
On offense, the Vikings are hoping that star running back Adrian Peterson will be fully recovered from his ACL surgery to start on opening day. First round draft choice Matt Kalil is expected to shore up the left tackle position on what looks like a decent offensive line.
But the biggest offensive concern for Minnesota is at the QB position, where Christian Ponder was inconsistent at best in his rookie season. With the Vikings in rebuilding mode and all three other teams in their division shooting for the Super Bowl this year, expect Ponder to have a fairly long leash if he struggles early. The Vikings are not likely to give up on their anointed ‘quarterback for the future’ quickly.
New defensive coordinator Alan Williams has installed Frazier’s preferred defense; relying on Tampa-2 style zones from the back seven and pressure from the front four, without much blitzing. Defensive end Jared Allen provides the pass rush, but much of the back seven is coming off ineffective or injury plagued campaigns.
Betting Markets:
Minnesota isn’t getting much love, lined three full wins behind everyone else in the division. Despite facing a much easier slate of opponents compared to last year, the Vikings have been installed as a six win team by the betting markets. They’ve taken very little action either Over or Under 6 thusfar.
Green Bay Packers 2012 Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Green Bay Packers
Last year, the defending Super Bowl champs were the best team in the NFL for the entire regular season, before getting bounced out of the playoffs following their bye, at home against the Giants. Green Bay finished 15-1 SU and despite their ‘public’ nature, they were strong moneywinners: 11-5 ATS, including a 6-0 ATS mark in games were they were less than a TD favorite.
The Packers were an Over machine; 11-5 to the Over in 2011. Against a very easy schedule, Green Bay outgained their opponents by 0.3 yards per play and finished with a whopping +24 turnover margin, second best in the league.
2012 Issues:
There’s no question that this offense is loaded, despite some minor concerns at the running back position. Green Bay outscored the weakest offense in the league by a full three TD’s per game last year. They solidified the offensive line in the offseason, signing free agent center Jeff Saturday, and extended several contracts to ensure stability up front for years to come.
The Packers defense, however, has plenty of question marks. Green Bay’s top six draft picks were all on the defensive side of the ball. The ability of those youngsters to step in and have an impact as rookies is paramount if Dom Capers leaky defense (ranked dead last in the NFL in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and yards per play allowed last year) is going to improve in 2012.
Betting Markets:
The Packers will once again face a much easier than average slate of opponents in 2012. Their Super Bowl win in 2010 and their 15-1 regular season mark last year has afforded them an enormous amount of betting market respect, with the prevailing Over/Under win total mark of 12. That being said, we’ve seen steady, consistent money come in against the Packers for the last month. Betting Green Bay Under 12 today comes with significant vig!
NFC West Division Preview
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
The glory days of the NFC West are long gone and in the rear view mirror.
Hall of Famers Joe Montana, Steve Young and Jerry Rice have been replaced by the likes of Sam Bradford, Alex Smith and Larry Fitzgerald in today’s NFC
West.
To illustrate exactly how much of a drop-off this division has suffered, while using results from Las Vegas as a barometer, consider this: In the 1980’s the NFC West was recognized as a road monster, with teams from this loop going 176-127-6 ATS away from home, including 114-80-4 in non-division games and 20-4-1 in road frays when the Over/Under total was 47 or higher points.
In the same, identical roles, the 2000’s contingent have gone 169-229-13 ATS on the highway, including 93-148-9 ATS outside the division and 11-27 SU and ATS when the Over/Under total was 47 or more points.
What a remarkable weakening.
And despite San Francisco’s resurrection under Jim Harbaugh last season, it’s easy to understand why this once proud division gone from the penthouse to the outhouse. Next to the AFC South’s 28, the NFC West contingent features the second lowest projected total of wins in 2012 with 30 by the Vegas oddsmakers.
One might look to its battles against the AFC East this season for a ray of hope, knowing this division has gone 88-86 SU and 94-74-3 ATS in these games since 1980. But then again, they are just 19-34 SU and 24-28-1 ATS the same since 2000.
Note: Team writeups by this author were excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
ARIZONA
Team Theme: NO BONES ABOUT IT
How can an 8-8 record and being home for the playoffs be a good thing you ask? When you started the season 1-6, and closed like a freight train, it can we answer. As impressive as the 7-2 finish was, four overtime wins was more so. When the final dust settled, the Cardinals found a quarterback they could finally wrap their feathers around. John Skeleton actually completed more passes and won more games (5) last season than Kevin Kolb, the Cardinals’ expensive upgrade. If Kolb eventually responds to the challenge, Arizona will only benefit, especially with the addition of Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd. Along with all-world WR Larry Fitzgerald, the passing game suddenly has the potential to become something special. So does the ground game with last year's No.1 pick Ryan Williams, who missed his rookie season with a knee injury, set to join Beanie Wells. With every starter back from a defense that improved 68 YPG during the second half of the season, things appear to be heating back up in the desert these days.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. San Francisco (10/29)
STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Cardinals rallied from six fourth quarter deficits in 2011, one shy of the NFL record.
IN THE STATS: The Cardinals have failed to gain 400 yards in any game the last two seasons.
ST. LOUIS
Team Theme: GONE FISHING
New head coach Jeff Fisher faces the daunting task of taking over a team that has won 15 games the last five years – while knowing his hand-picked defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams, has been banned from the league until further notice by commissioner Roger Goodell for his role in New Orleans’ ‘bountygate’. After sitting out one year, and then spurning an offer from the Dolphins, Fisher said yes to the Rams. He was enamored at the prospect of working with QB Sam Bradford and was especially up to the challenge of upgrading a storied franchise. The loss of Williams aside, Fisher first went to work by improving the team via free agency. He then wheeled and dealed, turning six picks into ten in the NFL draft – a half-dozen who look to be core players – while adding first-round selections in 2013 and 2014 from Washington in the Redskins’ quest to acquire RG3. With stud RB Steven Jackson drooling at the prospects of new OC Brian Schottenheimer’s playbook, look for a spark offensively from a team that scored a league-low 193 points in 2011. Defensively… that’s another subject for another time.
STAT YOU'LL LIKE: The Rams are 0-29 SU and 5-24 ATS as division home dogs of three or more points.
PLAY ON: vs. Arizona (10/4)
IN THE STATS: The Rams’ defense improved by almost 80 YPG in last season’s final 10 games.
SAN FRANCISCO
Team Theme: HE DID IT HIS WAY
When the Niners hired Jim Harbaugh to be their coach last year, they knew the landscape in San Francisco was about to change. And it did, in a big way, when Harbaugh led his team from a 6-10 also-ran into a 14-4 powerhouse. Harbaugh went against the NFL grain, utilizing a strong running game and an elite defense in bringing the Niners back to prominence. Who would have ever imagined in this day and age that a team with the 29th-ranked passing offense would make it into the championship game of its conference? (Okay, we’ll give Rex Ryan a pass). Heck, QB Alex Smith was 19-31 SU in his NFL career as a starter before he ran into Harbaugh. And speaking of which, after going 0-for-13 on third-down conversions in the NFC title game, Harbaugh added WR Mario Manningham to aid the cause. A solid draft that yielded three offensive talents with its first three selections – including a secound-round steal in RB LaMichael James – should further bolster the attack. It’s no wonder Harbaugh was named NFL Coach of the Year. Like Sinatra, he did it his way. Nonetheless, expect a step backward as the eight-victory improvement season last year proves to bite them in 2012.
PLAY ON: vs. NY Giants (10/14)
STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Until last season, the Niners owned a three-game win streak only once since 2002.
IN THE STATS: San Fran’s 10 turnovers during the regular season were the fewest in the league.
SEATTLE
Team Theme: THE USUAL SUSPECTS
When your top free agent signing is a quarterback who has two career NFL starts and loses the starting job to a 5’ 10” rookie third-round pick, your front office might have some issues. When you head into the draft with a shaky offensive line and you fail to select an offensive lineman, your staff might have some issues. And when your top selection in the draft, the No. 15 overall pick, is a designated pass rush ‘specialist,’ it might be time to start wondering who is steering the ship. We know Pete Carroll is making the sideline decisions and we know he is just 15-19 overall since taking over the franchise two years ago. Who would have ever guessed Carroll would ignore a marshmallow offense while choosing eight defensive players in this year’s draft? Not us. Not after watching the Seahawks gain an average of 303 and 304 yards in Carroll’s first two seasons with Seattle. Were we surprised to see Russell Wilson win the starting quarterback job? Hardly.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. San Francisco (12/23)
STAT YOU'LL LIKE: Carroll is 4-13 SU and 3-13-1 ATS in his NFL career in games off a spread win of more than 14 points, including 1-8 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in non-division games.
IN THE STATS: The Seahawks allowed only two players to rush for more than 100 yards last season.