2012 WAC Preview
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Talk about a conference in serious decline.
Only six of the 28 first-team all-WAC players in 2011 return this year. Considering a mere five of the 29 first-team all-WAC players in 2010 returned last season, it's what's known as going from the frying pan into the fire.
Not only are the ranks thinning dramatically in this conference, so are the members. After losing Boise State to the Mountain West last season, Fresno State, Hawaii and Nevada have bolted this year.
Just seven teams compose the 2012 WAC, and two of them - Texas State and UT-San Antonio - are making the giant jump from FCS to FBS territory.
Confounding matters this year, of the WAC's 42 non-conference matchups, 19 are against teams that played in a bowl game last season.
Silver lining in a black cloud comes from the fact that the WAC was 15-31 in non-conference play last year. Of the 31 losses, they were either tied or leading in the 2nd half of 17 games, including 14 fourth-quarter leads.
They may try hard but our best advice is to get your cell phone cameras ready and take a picture of teams calling the WAC home these days. Like free hors d'oeuvres at a weight watchers meeting, they don't figure to be around much longer.
Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.
IDAHO (5/4)
Team Theme: HOLD THE FRIES
Since its dramatic come-from-behind win over Bowling Green in the 2009 Humanitarian Bowl, it's been a precipitous fall from fame for the Spuds. A 2-10 effort last season can be directly attributed to an offense that declined 13 points and 150 YPG from the 2009 juggernaut that averaged 33 points 451 yards per game. And despite returning only five starters on offense, HC Robb Akey still holds out hope after the spring game. "I'm happy with the progress our offense is making," Akey said. "We have a lot of work to do, no doubt about it. But I'm excited about what we can be." If that isn't coach talk… well, we're not drinking the Moscow Kool-Aid.
Stat You Will Like: Akey is 1-6 ATS as a conference favorite.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. San Jose State (11/3)
LOUISIANA TECH (*8/6)
Team Theme: DIVIDEND KINGS
In two short years, Sonny Dykes has taken the Bulldogs from obscurity to prosperity and, like a fat kid at McDonald's or John Travolta at a massage parlor, La Tech backers are lovin' it. That's what happens when you cover the spread 11 out of 12 times in one season while nabbing the conference crown. The blueprint for success laid out by Dykes last year should continue to pay future dividends as the combination of the best recruiting class in the WAC and an infusion of JUCO talent (read: QB Nick Isham) has Ruston barking for more. With the offense pretty much back intact, investors are standing by. Here's hoping for a happy meal - and 'ending' - in 2012.
Stat You Will Like: The last time UNLV visited Ruston (1993), the Rebels snapped the Bulldogs' 18-game home win streak.
PASS
NEW MEXICO STATE (*7/6)
Team Theme: MOVIN' ON UP
The good news in Las Cruces is that the offense continues to make big strides under 4th-year mentor DeWayne Walker, improving 9 points and 103 yards per game last year alone. Unfortunately, the defense is in denial, having declined every season under Walker. To accentuate the positive, there are two options at quarterback in 2012 as sophomore Travaughn Colwell is back after having been thrown into the fire last year when fellow soph Andrew Manley saw his season end after three games with a knee injury. If the Aggies ascent is to continue, they'll need to take advantage of a season-opening six-pack that features five losing squads.
Stat You Will Like: The Aggies are 2-19 ATS as a favorite or a dog of 4 or less points versus an opponent with revenge.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. New Mexico (9/22)
SAN JOSE STATE (7/5)
Team Theme: ONE HUGE STEP FORWARD
The second year of the Mike McIntyre era proved fruitful for the Spartans when they went from one-win wonders in 2010 to one-game shy of being bowl-eligible in 2011. In the process, they also managed to shake a gnarly 16-game road-losing skein. Unfortunately, QB Matt Faulkner and RB Matt Rutley depart, as well as four along the defensive front seven. The good news is the hiring of Gene Blaymaier, the former Boise State athletic director who built a perennial football power in three decades with the Broncos. Sadly, McIntyre doesn't have 30 years, and it appears the huge step forward last year will likely translate into two steps backward this season.
Stat You Will Like: The Spartans are 0-16 SU and 3-13 ATS versus conference opponents off BB SU and ATS wins.
PASS
TEXAS STATE (*8/9)
Team Theme: HE'S BACK
After guiding Alabama, New Mexico, TCU and Texas A&M to bowl games and national prominence, Dennis Franchione resurfaces with the Bobcats in their maiden season with the big boys as a member of the soon-to-be-defunct WAC. This is actually Franchione's second stint with TSU (1990-91), where he is 19-15 overall. At first glance, 17 returning starters from a 6-6 squad appears imposing. However, a deeper look reveals losses in five of their final six games last year - all to FCS opposition. Let's hope the 'belting' they're expected to take this season only better prepares them for next year's move to the Sun Belt Conference.
Stat You Will Like: Franchione is 11-4 ATS as a home dog of more than 6 points, including 8-1 ATS versus greater than .667 opponents.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Nevada (9/29)
UTAH STATE (*7/6)
Team Theme: UPS AND DOWNS
Gary Andersen reached the summit in his third season in Logan when his Aggies gained a school-record 5,945 yards last year - including 3,675 on the ground - en route to their first bowl appearance since 1997. Led by the two-headed QB attack of Chuckie Keaton, who started the first eight games before getting injured, and Adam Kennedy, who won five of six starts, the Aggies have logged six double-digit comebacks the past two seasons and are 8-1 ATS as double-digit dogs under Andersen. Unfortunately, USU is a 'Reverse Mission' team and our Black Book tells us these 'Brilliant Disguisers' tend to revert back to their losing ways more often than not.
Stat You Will Like: The Aggies played in 10 games decided by one score or less last season, tops in the nation.
PLAY ON: as a dog at Colorado State (9/22)
UTSA (TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO) (*11/10)
Team Theme: BUILT FROM SCRATCH
Talk about building a program from scratch. When UTSA decided it wanted a football program, they initiated 'Step Up UTSA' as a fundraiser. They proceeded to raise $15 million, enough to pay salaries, scholarships and build practice facilities. Former national championship head coach Larry Coker (Miami Fla.) was hired and the rest is history. The Roadrunners kicked off their maiden season as a Division 1 FCS Independent last year and now bump up to FBS status in the WAC before moving on to C-USA in 2013. Twenty-one returning starters and a slate that includes four FCS foes should have the fans in the Alamodome 'remembering' 2012.
Stat You Will Like: The Roadrunners coaching staff features more than 100 years of combined coaching experience at the collegiate level.
PASS
2012 College Football Preview: WAC
Atssportsline.com
WAC College Football Preview
College football starts on August 30. We'll take a look at the final conference-the Western Athletic Conference. Unfortunately, this is the last year of the WAC, who is merging with Conference USA next season. Louisiana Tech is the favorite in this weakened league.
Idaho (2011: 2-10 SU, 6-6 ATS) Ret. starters: (Off: 6, Def: 5). The Vandals should improve as long as junior QB Dominique Blackman (6-5, 255) can take advantage of his situation. He signed with Washington before going to junior college and then redshirted at Old Dominion. New OC Jason Gesser, former Washington State quarterback, has his work cut out for him. The Vandals' offense averaged just 20.3 ppg last year (107th) and will add three new starters on the offensive line. Senior RB Ryan Bass (5-10, 206) has been injury-prone throughout his career. Two of the top WRs are gone though senior Mike Scott (55 for 691) is back. On defense, they do return LB Robert Siavii (6-1, 201), who led the team in tackles in 2010 but missed last year due to an injury. Senior FS Gary Walker (109tckls) leads the secondary that lacks playmakers. Junior Quayshawne Buckley (6-3, 284, 38tckls) anchors the D-line. They have one of the best punters in the nation in Bobby Cowan (46.4yds/punt).
Louisiana Tech (2011: 8-5 SU, 11-2 ATS). Ret. starters: (Off: 9, Def: 7). The Bulldogs are the defending conference champ, who won seven straight regular season games to get to the Poinsettia Bowl. Senior QB Colby Cameron (1667, 13, 3) was instrumental to their success. The offense returns four starters on the O-line and all-WAC WR Quinton Patton (79 for 1,202yds, 11 TDs). Soph. RB Hunter Lee (5-10, 200) is a former walk-on who rushed for 650yds last year with five TDs. Defensively, this unit helped them win the league last year. DB Chad Boyd (76tckls, 6 pbu) is an all-conference-caliber player. But they do lose 230 tackles in LBs Jay Dudley and WAC defensive player of the year Adrien Colege. They also lost 16 sacks in DEs Matt Broha and Christian Lacey. Senior P Ryan Allen is a huge weapon (46.1) having won the Ray Guy Award.
New Mexico State (2011: 4-9 SU, 8-5 ATS). Ret. starters: (Off: 6, Def: 5). The Aggies return just 11 starters but they key is soph. Andrew Manley (6-3, 225), who averaged 297.3 ypg for three games last season before injuring his knee. They lost RB Kenny Turner (1,074yds) and WR Taveon Rogers (50 for 1048yds), but do return talent at both spots. Robert Clay (5-10, 195) lost his job last year and hopes to gain it back this season. Soph. Austin Franklin (34 for 524yds) will have to lead the receivers. The offensive line has great potential in Ts Davonte Wallace (6-4, 290) and senior Andrew Karsten (6-5, 305). On defense, the Aggies lack playmakers. They also lost their first five tacklers. Senior DE Donte Savage (6-2, 250) returns to help the pass rush. They also add a juco transfer at LB in TraShaun Nixon (6-1, 225) to play the weak side.
San Jose State (2011: 5-7 SU, 8-4 ATS). Ret. starters (Off: 7, Def: 6). The Spartans have some talent on this team but it all starts at QB. Junior David Fales (6-3, 220) showed flashes in the spring and Michigan QB Tate Forcier decided to leave for the CFL. Fales will be the guy but will need better protection with three new starters on the O-line. At RB, senior De'Leon Eskridge (5-11, 215) could get the nod after transferring from Minnesota. They do have an oustanding WR corps returning, led by junior Noel Grigsby (5-11, 175), who caught 89 passes for 886 yards last year. TE Ryan Otten (6-5, 245) is one of the premier tight ends in the nation, after grabbing 52 receptions for 739 yards and 5 TDs in 2011. On defense, they add star DE Travis Johnson (6-3, 244), a firstteam all-WAC selection who led the team in sacks with 9.5 and recorded 73 tackles. Junior LB Keith Smith (6-1, 229) led the team in tackles last year with 104. The secondary loses it anchor in SS Duke Ihenacho, but does return S James Orth (78 tckls).
UT-San Antonio (2011: 4-6 SU). Ret. starters: (Off: 11, Def: 10. The Roadrunners are making their debut in the WAC and FBS transition. Former Miami (Fla.) coach Larry Coker has his work cut out for him. QB Eric Soza (6-1, 200) threw for 2,148yds with 14 TDs and 9 picks last year but against a sub-par schedule. He does have a potential star in WR Kam Jones (39 for 578yds). Soph. RB David Glasco is in the mix of average running backs. At least they return every offensive lineman. On defense, LB Steven Kurfehs (61 tckls) was a force last year. But there isn't a whole lot there. Senior LB Brandon Reeves (5-10, 220) did lead the team with 69 tackles and added six sacks. Senior DE Marlon Smith (6-6, 225) led with 8 sacks. It's going to be a long year for the Roadrunners though at least they have an easy non-conference schedule.
Texas State (2011: 6-6 SU, 0-2 ATS). Ret. starters: (Off: 9, Def: 8). The Bobcats are led by head coach Dennis Franchione, the former TCU and Texas A&M coach. At least Franchione should have a running attack in their first year in the WAC. RBs Terrence Franks (863yds, 9 TDs) and Marcus Curry (637yds) are quality backs. When they do throw it, senior QB Shaun Rutherford (1227, 12, 4) can manage the game and has good wheels (449yds). The O-line has just two starters back. This was a pure running team last year that converted just 33% of their third downs. LB Joplo Bartu (6-2, 220) and FS Xavier Daniels (77tckls) are the top players on defense. They do lose DE Michael Ebbitt (11.5sacks) and no returning Bobcat defender had more than four.
Utah State (2011: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS). Ret. starters: (Off: 6, Def: 8). The Aggies return six starters on offense but they have three O-lineman back. Senior Kerwynn Wililams (542yds) has been the return specialist (14ypr punts), but should be a star as a regular back as he averaged 6.7ypc last year. Soph. QB Chuckie Keeton (6-2, 198, 1200yds, 11, 2) and senior Adam Kennedy (6-5, 225, 972yds, 11, 4) are both capable starters. Their defense doesn't make enough plays as they racked up just 15 turnovers last year. Senior FS McKade Brady (86tckls) is a former track star who leads the secondary. They don't force many turnovers because they don't get the quarterback.