2013 College Football Season Win Totals

Pro Handicappers Share Best College Football Win Total Over Picks
By Covers.com

College football season doesn’t officially kick off for another two months but tell that to sports bettors after online book 5Dimes.eu released their 2013 season win totals for all 125 FBS programs.

With those odds still hot off the presses, and Las Vegas books posting theirs in the weeks to come, we turned it over to the experts – the Covers Experts – to see which over/under win totals plays have caught their sharp eyes.

Here are Covers Experts’ favorite teams to go 'over' their win total in 2013:

Iowa Hawkeyes – Over 5.5 (EVEN)

“The Hawkeyes suffered a rare losing season last year with half of their eight losses coming by a field goal or less,” says Covers Expert Marc Lawrence. “Love the fact that Kirk Ferentz has had only four squads that failed to produce a winning season at Iowa. All four of those teams improved their record the following season, winning an average 6.25 games on the year. With the top three tacklers back on defense, look for Iowa to be bowling by season's end.”

Arkansas Razorbacks – Over 5.5 wins (-140)

“The switch from head coach Bobby Petrino to John L Smith was a disaster for the Razorbacks last year, resulting in a seven-win dropoff from their 11-win 2011 season,” says pro handicapper Teddy Covers. “Brett Bielema should be an immediate upgrade and Petrino/Smith most assuredly did not leave the cupboard bare of talent upon their departures. Arkansas has a good chance to start 4-0 in non-conference play, meaning a 2-6 SEC record will cash our over bet.”

BYU Cougars - Over 8.5 (+130)

"The Cougars had one of the best defenses in the country last season as they held opponents to just 14 points per game," says Covers Expert Steve Merril. "BYU should have a dominant defense once again and its offensive play should be much better as the unit will be healthy. Quarterback Taysom Hill will make a name for himself this season and, despite their tough schedule, we expect BYU to go over its posted season wins total."

Washington State Cougars – Over 4.5 (EVEN)

“Mike Leach saw a streak of 10 consecutive winning seasons go down the drain in his first year with the Cougars at the Palouse. In doing so, his team still managed to lead the Pac-12 in passing despite being forced to play 17 freshmen,” notes Lawrence. “Led by 16 returning starters, including QB Connor Halliday (battling freshman Austin Apodaca for starting honors) and his four leading wide receivers, Leach is the epitome of a coach on a mission this year - especially one that has never had back-to-back losing seasons.”

Washington Huskies – Over 7.5 (-120)

“Washington finished 7-6 SU (5-4 in conference) and 8-5 ATS,” says Covers Expert Art Aronson. “The Huskies have a team on paper to challenge the Cardinal and Ducks with over 20 returning starters from a year ago. Quarterback Keith Price has a big opportunity to take the team to the next level.”

Wisconsin Badgers – Over 8.5 (-210)

“While everyone is conceding the Big Ten Leaders Division to Ohio State, don't count out Wisky and first-year head coach Gary Andersen,” says Covers Expert Bryan Power. “They benefit tremendously from avoiding Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska out of the Legends Division. They get Penn State at home. Do not be fooled by the Badgers' five losses last year as all of them came by seven points or less. There are 14 returning starters this year in Madison.”

Alabama Crimson Tide – Over 11.5 (+170)

“With A.J. McCarron back at quarterback, and eight starters returning to a defense that ranked first overall in opponent scoring last year, expect them to be just as tough this year,” says Covers Expert Will Rogers.

Utah Utes – Over 5.5 (+145)

“Head coach Kyle Whittingham suffered his first-ever losing season last year and promptly went out and hired Dennis Erickson to work with Brian Johnson as co-offensive coordinators,” says Lawrence. “With five home games to open the first half of the season (Whittingham 37-11 in Salt Lake City) and paybacks aplenty dotting the schedule, it's mission accomplished for the Utes in 2013.”

Louisville Cardinals – Over 10.5 (-155)

“I believe the Cardinals have an excellent shot at running the table and playing for a National Championship, provided no other team from a conference other than the SEC also finishes unbeaten,” says Power. “At most, Louisville will lose one game. It's schedule is ridiculously easy for a Preseason Top 10 team, ranked only the 98th toughest in the country. The new American Athletic Conference is basically nothing more than a semi-strong version of the C-USA.”

Vanderbilt Commodores – Over (7.5 (EVEN)

“Vanderbilt ranked fifth in the SEC in total defense in 2012, and the Commodores will bring back six starters to their defense this season,” says Rogers. “Its strength is at the defensive end with a trio of talented playmakers in Walker May, Kyle Woestmann and Caleb Azubuike. James Franklyn has this program headed in the right direction.”

Stanford Cardinal - Over 9.5 (-145)

"This program hasn’t skipped a beat since Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL. Head coach David Shaw is in his third season and Stanford is 23-4 under his direction," says Merril. "The Cardinal will have one of the best defenses in the country and quarterback Kevin Hogan returns after starting five games last season with a punishing running game behind him. Stanford has the goods on both sides of the ball to challenge for a national title."

Northwestern Wildcats – Over 8.5 (EVEN)

“The Wildcats won 10 games a year ago and finally picked up that elusive bowl win,” says Power. “They can easily match that record this year with 15 starters back in Evanston. All three losses came in games where they led in the fourth quarter last season.”

College Football Season O/U Wins
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

The college football betting market matures slowly over the summer months compared to the NFL betting marketplace. We’ve had NFL Week 1 lines and College Football Game of the Year lines since May, both here in Vegas and offshore. The NFL season win market wasn’t far behind, with most of the leading indicator sportsbooks standing knee deep in season win wagers by the second week of July.

But with 125 FBS teams on the betting board, the sportsbooks take more time doing their homework and research before posting a bevy of NCAA Football lines for the upcoming season. The Golden Nugget was the first to market with their Games of the Year lines last month.

The first college football season win numbers were posted offshore less than two weeks ago, with the 5Dimes sportsbook emerging as the global market leaders for 2013. Here in Vegas, we’re not far away from heavyweights Cantor Gaming, the LVH Superbook and William Hill posting their first NCAA win totals.

College win totals are a very different animal compared to the NFL. You don’t see many NFL pointspreads higher than -14, and even that is a rare case. Of the 16 games set for Week 1 of the regular season, only one (Baltimore at Denver on the Thursday Night national TV opener) is lined at higher than -7.

The old adage about any NFL team being able to beat any other team on “any given Sunday” has more than a little bit of truth to it. Arizona finished 5-11 last year, but they won straight up at New England. The Eagles finished 4-12, but one of those wins came against the Super Bowl champion Ravens. I could list a dozen more major upsets from last year alone.

In college, the best teams are routinely four, five or six touchdown favorites against the weaker foes on their schedule. Even in conference play, it’s not unusual to see a top notch squad like Alabama to be favored in those pointspread ranges. The Crimson Tide were 30+ point favorites against an Ole Miss team that won a bowl game by three touchdowns over Pitt last December. They were road favorites of 20 points or higher against the likes of Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas.

Alabama probably isn’t the best example to use to illustrate my points, because it’s not just ‘ultra-elite’ teams like Nick Saban’s squad that are routinely favored in those type of pointspread ranges. Florida State was a two TD favorite or higher in 13 of their 14 games last year. Oregon laid -20 or higher nine times. Boise State has been 20+ point favorites in 29 of their last 43 regular season games.

What does all of this pointspread info tell us about season win totals? Simple – there’s a lot less wiggle room for college football season win totals than there is compared to the NFL. When we look at the teams near the top or the bottom of the college football world, more than half of their games are near guaranteed wins or losses from a straight up perspective.

Oregon is not going to lose SU at home to Cal, Washington State or Utah. Nicholls State isn’t going to beat them once in 100 hypothetical matchups, and road games at Virginia or Colorado aren’t really tests. Before the season starts – before fall camp starts – you can assume a minimum of six wins for the Ducks, even in a near worst case scenario. It’s a similar story with Alabama, or Florida State or Boise, to stick with the team examples listed above.

As a result, the standard NFL conversion formula (a half win worth approximately 50 cents of juice) doesn’t apply to the college football world. In NCAA win total action, a half win difference between sportsbooks can be routinely priced as being worth a full dollar or more in extra vig. And professional bettors have no hesitancy laying a full dollar’s worth of extra juice to bet a top team Over 10 wins instead of Over 10.5, for example. Getting that ‘push protection’ is worth the cost!

As the college football season win marketplace starts to mature over the next few weeks, we’ll see the lack of wiggle room for the books on full display, with bettors taking advantage of any arbitrage opportunities available as soon as they show up. From a return-on-investment perspective, getting the best of those half win differentials between books makes an enormous difference in the professional bettor’s bottom line.

I’ve been doing my college football homework in recent weeks, prepping for marketplace maturity. Here are two Overs and two Unders that caught my eye from the offshore openers at 5Dimes. The juice is current as of early Monday morning on July 8th.

Arkansas Over 5.5 wins (-140)

The switch from head coach Bobby Petrino to John L. Smith was a disaster for the Razorbacks last year, resulting in a seven win drop-off from their 11 win 2011 season. Brett Bielema should be an immediate upgrade and the Petrino/Smith duo most assuredly did not leave the cupboard bare of talent upon their departures. Arkansas has a solid chance to start 4-0 in non-conference play – their toughest early season opponent is Rutgers – meaning a 2-6 SEC record will cash an Over bet. With home games against Mississippi State and Auburn, they’ll have the opportunity to deliver those two wins in the ‘home favorites’ role without pulling an upset.

Indiana Over 5.5 wins (-210)

The Hoosiers have only reached a bowl once since 1993; a longtime Big 10 football bottom feeder. Two years ago, head coach Kevin Wilson relied heavily on his own freshman recruits in his first season on the job, benching numerous veterans and creating ample dissention in the ranks for a 1-11 football team. But that reliance on youth is primed to pay dividends this year, as the Hoosiers return 19 starters from a team that averaged 31 points per game last year. In what looks like a down year for the Big 10, all eight home games for Indiana fall into the winnable category.

UNLV Under 4.5 wins (-175)

The Rebels haven’t won more than two games in any of Bobby Hauck’s first three seasons on the job, and Hauck is clearly on the hot seat heading into 2013. The Rebels haven’t won a road game since 2009, and three of their four Mountain West home games are against the elite teams of the conference. Throw in a 1-5 SU track record over the past two years as a favorite (including two SU losses as double digit chalk over 1-AA teams) and asking this Rebels team to win five games this year is simply not something I’m willing to do. There’s a reason that Cantor hung a 2.5 win total on UNLV this year (Cantor posted totals on both Nevada FBS teams months ago); giving bettors an extremely rare TWO GAME differential between sportsbooks.

West Virginia Under 5.5 wins (+175)

With a first round NFL draft choice at quarterback, a first and third rounder at wide receiver and a loaded, experienced offensive line, West Virginia finished the regular season 6-6 last year. Five of those wins came in games that the Mountaineers were favored by double digits. This year, they’ve got only two real patsies on the slate and it’s a clear rebuilding season for a weak defensive team in a tough conference. Dana Holgorsen’s honeymoon period in Morgantown didn’t last long. West Virginia’s streak of seven consecutive 9+ win seasons ended last year and isn’t likely to start up again anytime soon.

College Football Win Totals
By Bovada.lv

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Air Force Falcons
Over 6½ (+120)
Under 6½ (-150)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Alabama Crimson Tide
Over 11 (+110)
Under 11 (-140)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Arizona Wildcats
Over 7½ (-125)
Under 7½ (-105)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Arizona State Sun Devils
Over 7½ (-150)
Under 7½ (+120)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Arkansas Razorbacks
Over 5½ (-140)
Under 5½ (+110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Army Black Knights
Over 4½ (+110)
Under 4½ (-140)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Auburn Tigers
Over 6½ (-140)
Under 6½ (+110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Baylor Bears
Over 8 (+105)
Under 8 (-135)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Boise State Broncos
Over 10 (+110)
Under 10 (-140)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Boston College Eagles
Over 4½ (-140)
Under 4½ (+110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - BYU Cougars
Over 8 (+110)
Under 8 (-140)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - California Golden Bears
Over 4 (+110)
Under 4 (-140)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Cincinnati Bearcats
Over 9½ (+110)
Under 9½ (-140)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Clemson Tigers
Over 9½ (-120)
Under 9½ (-110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Colorado Buffaloes
Over 3½ (-115)
Under 3½ (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Connecticut Huskies
Over 5½ (-140)
Under 5½ (+110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Duke Blue Devils
Over 5½ (+120)
Under 5½ (-150)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Florida Gators
Over 9 (+120)
Under 9 (-150)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Florida State Seminoles
Over 10 (-115)
Under 10 (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Fresno State Bulldogs
Over 10 (-120)
Under 10 (-110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Georgia Bulldogs
Over 9½ (-140)
Under 9½ (+110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Over 8 (-135)
Under 8 (+105)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Hawaii Warriors
Over 3½ (-130)
Under 3½ (EVEN)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Houston Cougars
Over 5½ (-105)
Under 5½ (-125)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Idaho Vandals
Over 1½ (+160)
Under 1½ (-200)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Illinois Fighting Illini
Over 3½ (-130)
Under 3½ (EVEN)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Indiana Hoosiers
Over 5½ (-180)
Under 5½ (+150)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Iowa Hawkeyes
Over 5½ (-150)
Under 5½ (+120)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Iowa State Cyclones
Over 5½ (+110)
Under 5½ (-140)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Kansas Jayhawks
Over 3½ (-115)
Under 3½ (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Kansas State Wildcats
Over 8 (-115)
Under 8 (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Kentucky Wildcats
Over 4½ (+110)
Under 4½ (-140)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Louisville Cardinals
Over 10½ (-140)
Under 10½ (+110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - LSU Tigers
Over 9 (+120)
Under 9 (-150)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Maryland Terrapins
Over 6½ (-150)
Under 6½ (+120)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Memphis Tigers
Over 4½ (-140)
Under 4½ (+110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Miami Hurricanes
Over 8½ (-115)
Under 8½ (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Michigan Wolverines
Over 8½ (EVEN)
Under 8½ (-130)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Michigan State Spartans
Over 8½ (-115)
Under 8½ (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Minnesota Golden Gophers
Over 5½ (-115)
Under 5½ (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Mississippi State Bulldogs
Over 6 (+110)
Under 6 (-140)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Missouri Tigers
Over 6 (-115)
Under 6 (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Navy Midshipmen
Over 6½ (-115)
Under 6½ (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - NC State Wolfpack
Over 7 (-105)
Under 7 (-125)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Nebraska Cornhuskers
Over 9½ (-105)
Under 9½ (-125)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Nevada Wolf Pack
Over 5½ (-150)
Under 5½ (+120)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - North Carolina Tarheels
Over 9 (-105)
Under 9 (-125)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Northern Illinois Huskies
Over 9½ (-175)
Under 9½ (+145)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Northwestern Wildcats
Over 8½ (+160)
Under 8½ (-200)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Over 8½ (-140)
Under 8½ (+110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Ohio State Buckeyes
Over 11 (+160)
Under 11 (-200)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Oklahoma Sooners
Over 8½ (-150)
Under 8½ (+120)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Oklahoma State Cowboys
Over 9½ (+115)
Under 9½ (-145)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Ole Miss Rebels
Over 8 (+110)
Under 8 (-140)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Oregon Ducks
Over 11 (+125)
Under 11 (-155)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Oregon State Beavers
Over 8½ (-130)
Under 8½ (EVEN)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Penn State Nittany Lions
Over 8 (-110)
Under 8 (-120)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Pittsburgh Panthers
Over 5½ (-140)
Under 5½ (+110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Purdue Boilermakers
Over 5½ (+170)
Under 5½ (-250)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Over 7 (+115)
Under 7 (-145)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - SMU Mustangs
Over 5½ (+120)
Under 5½ (-150)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - South Carolina Gamecocks
Over 9½ (-115)
Under 9½ (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - South Florida Bulls
Over 5½ (-155)
Under 5½ (+125)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Stanford Cardinal
Over 9½ (-105)
Under 9½ (-125)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Syracuse Orange
Over 4½ (-190)
Under 4½ (+155)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - TCU Horned Frogs
Over 8 (-140)
Under 8 (+110)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Temple Owls
Over 4½ (+130)
Under 4½ (-160)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Tennessee Volunteers
Over 6 (EVEN)
Under 6 (-130)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Texas Longhorns
Over 9½ (-135)
Under 9½ (+105)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Texas A&M Aggies
Over 9½ (-145)
Under 9½ (+115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Texas Tech Raiders
Over 7½ (+170)
Under 7½ (-210)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - UCF Knights
Over 8 (EVEN)
Under 8 (-130)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - UCLA Bruins
Over 7 (+105)
Under 7 (-135)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - USC Trojans
Over 9½ (+110)
Under 9½ (-140)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Utah Utes
Over 5½ (+135)
Under 5½ (-165)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Vanderbilt Commodores
Over 7½ (+125)
Under 7½ (-155)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Virginia Cavaliers
Over 4½ (-130)
Under 4½ (EVEN)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Virginia Tech Hokies
Over 8½ (-150)
Under 8½ (+120)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Over 5½ (-115)
Under 5½ (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Washington Huskies
Over 7½ (-125)
Under 7½ (-105)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Washington State Cougars
Over 4½ (EVEN)
Under 4½ (-130)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - West Virginia Mountaineers
Over 6 (-115)
Under 6 (-115)

2013 Regular Season - Total Wins - Wisconsin Badgers
Over 9 (-115)
Under 9 (-115)

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