2013 NFL Week 15 Handicapping & Betting Preview
By TJ Pemberton
We already saw the Chargers pull the upset on Thursday night as a double-digit dog vs. the Broncos. I was not sure about the spread in this game, but did release my patented 500* NFL Thursday Night Total Dominator with the UNDER in this game and we cashed in EASILY as this game stayed UNDER the total by 10 points. I am on Fire with a 16-3 (84%) Run in the NFL, including a PERFECT 6-0 my last 6 underdog plays. MY FULL NFL card will be up and available Sunday Morning as I encourage you to Hop on this Money Train as Santa Claus is coming early.
Right now, I would like to discuss some of the key games in the NFL with my thoughts and analysis.
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans--Please note this game has a start time of 3:25 Central opposed to the usual 12:00 Central start time for these East Coast games. Saying that, I have to discount the 'Early Start' time for this West Coast Team, Arizona. Arizona is fighting for their life and a wild-card spot in the playoffs and they need this game, considering that their last two games of the season are @ Seattle then a finale at home vs. the 49ers. Arizona has out gained their last 6 opponents which also tells me they are playing their best football of the season. Also note that the Titans have lost their last 4 home games, so I have to wonder if they will be motivated for this one. Injury Note: Safety Tyrann Mathieu is out for the season for Arizona and was coming on strong as a rookie.
NY Jets @ Carolina Panthers--This will be the second double digit on the card this week. Of course, the Chargers were the first and won the game straight up. Rex Ryan does a good job at managing the game when he is a sizeable dog. The Jets were a 10.5 point dog in Week 2 @ New England and lost 13-10, covering easily. They were also a 10 point dog when playing @ Atlanta and won that game straight up, 30-28. I know the win vs. the Falcons doesn't mean anything, but regardless they were a big dog in that game and Rex Ryan guided his team to the win and cover. The Panthers are in the middle of a big, fat, 'Who-Dat Nation' sandwich. After getting embarrassed last week vs. the Saints, I have to think that they are not even looking at the Jets this Sunday. I am thinking that practice this week will be more devoted on stopping Drew Brees. The Jets have been outgained in 8 of their last 10 games though and I don't know if Geno Smith can play two good games without giving the ball to the other team repeatedly. Both teams have excellent run defenses and I have the feeling that points will be hard to come by in this game. The Jets are (-18) in turnover differential which is dead last in the NFL. With a total of 40.5, I can see a 24-13 win by Carolina and I might take a closer look at the UNDER in this game.
Cincinnati Bengals@ Pittsburgh Steelers--While the Steeler's might be out of the play-off race, player's jobs are on the line. Changes will be made this off-season, and the defensive players for Pittsburgh know this so they are playing for their career in this game. So before you go loading up on Cincinnati like the majority of the public, remember this is a divisional game and it is not often that you get Pittsburgh as a home dog. This is a role-reversal game for the Bengals as they have been the underdog the last 23 visits to Pittsburgh. With a commanding division lead, I don't know if the Bengals will play their best tonight. I assume they would rather wait to get back home where they conclude the season with two home games to put forth a better effort. Big Ben as a home dog? Sounds appetizing.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts--The Texans are 0-11 SU all time when playing @ Indy. The Texans have had the most disappointing season that I can think of in a long time. On paper though, Houston has the better defense by 70 yards a game. The Texans have the top ranked secondary in the NFL and Andrew Luck has struggled in the passing game ever since the loss of Reggie Wayne. The Colts have gotten outgained their last 3 games and 7 of their last 9. The Colts just clinched the division which should give them a sigh of relief for this game and I will question their toughness for this game. Also remember the Colts lost 38-8 to Saint Louis in a home game earlier this year. I have an initial lean on the Texans and their defense as defensive dogs are profitable and the fact the Colts don't have anything to play for right now. I might re-visit this game later in the week as well.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders--The Chiefs are now coming back from the East Coast to play the Oakland Raiders back out West. If the Raiders were playing better ball right now, then I might give them a decent shot today. But the defense is terrible and the Chiefs will exploit their weaknesses and put up points I do believe. The UNDER is 9-1 the last 10 matchups between these two teams, but still the total is posted at 41.5 currently. The one game that went OVER was a 23-20 win by Oakland in Overtime in 2010. So this series could be 10-0 UNDER easily the last 10. If it was that easy my friends, then Vegas would be broke. It is not that easy, and I am going to be the contrarian and look at the OVER in this game. The Chiefs have given up an average of 34 points in their last 3 divisional games. I don't think Oakland will score 34 this afternoon, but I do feel that the Raiders can score in the 20-24 point range. The Raiders and their regressing defense are on a 5-0-1 OVER run currently. I can see a close game being played with a final score of 24-23, which would send this game OVER and give the Raiders the unexpected cover. Note that this is a divisional game and the underdog is 11-2 ATS the last 13 meetings.
New Orleans Saints @ Saint Louis Rams--New Orleans is GOOD at home but BAD on the road. Let's see...They lost as a road favorite to the New York Jets, 26-20, and barely beat the Falcons, 17-13. These were both tough spots for the Saints as they had bigger games on deck. But again, they have a bigger divisional game on deck @ Carolina next week. The Saints do well when they build an early lead so teams cannot use their running game as effectively. The Rams have played some of the upper-level NFL teams very well this season and have one of the best defensive line's in football. The Rams lead the NFL in sacks when playing at home and if they can put pressure on Brees, then they have a chance in this game. Also note that the Saints are giving up 4.7 yards per carry on defense and the Rams have a solid running game at 4.4 yards per carry. If the Rams don't get down early, they have a shot at the upset . I want to monitor this line some more and look at some more factors before making a final decision in this game though. Again, I will more than likely revisit this game again before Sunday.