2014 College Football Totals.... All Things 'O/U'
By Victor King
Playbook.com
With the 2014 College Football season commencing play on August 28th, KING CREOLE has dissected last year’s OU results for all Division 1-A schools. The first part of our article looks at the Top OVER and UNDER teams from last year. Then we'll hit on various OU tidbits in regards to PACE OF PLAY that all Totals Players should be aware of. Finally, we'll project some of the Top OVER and UNDER Teams to look out for in this upcoming 2014 season.
Last year’s Best ‘OVER’ teams:
Troy (11-1 O/U)… Eastern Michigan, UAB (10-2 O/U)… New Mexico St (9-2 O/U)… Indiana, New Mexico, Virginia (9-3 O/U)... Colorado St (9-3-1 O/U)… Florida St, Ohio St (10-4 O/U)… Baylor, Boston College, Buffalo, Texas A&M (9-4 O/U).
Last year’s Best ‘UNDER’ teams:
Louisiana Tech (2-10 O/U)… Louisville (3-10 O/U)… BYU, Massachusetts, South Florida, Texas-San Antonio (3-9 O/U)… Wake Forest (3-8-1 O/U)… North Carolina, North Texas, Ohio U (4-9 O/U)… Bowling Green (4-9-1 O/U).
MOST combined PPG (offense + defense):
Indiana (77.2 ppg)… Texas A&M (76.4 ppg)… Baylor (75.9 ppg)… New Mexico (75.4 ppg)… Fresno St (73.7 ppg)… Troy (70.0 ppg)… UAB (69.9 ppg)… California (68.9 ppg)… Ohio St (68.1 ppg)… Wyoming (67.9 ppg)… San Jose St (67.5 ppg)… Arizona St, Texas Tech (66.3 ppg)… Oregon St (66.3 ppg)… Hawaii (66.1 ppg).
LEAST combined PPG (offense + defense):
Virginia Tech (41.8 ppg)… South Florida (42.3 ppg)… Wake Forest (42.4 ppg)… Michigan St (42.6 ppg)… Memphis (44.1 ppg)… Massachusetts (44.7 ppg)… Iowa (45.2 ppg)… Louisiana Tech, Miami-Oh (45.4 ppg)… Tulane (46.3 ppg)… Florida Intl (46.7 ppg)… Kansas (47.1 ppg)… Louisville (47.4 ppg)… Kent St (47.6 ppg).
HIGHEST average OU line:
Texas A&M (72.8)… Baylor (72.3)… Oregon (68.8)… Fresno St (68.4)… Indiana (66.6)… California (66.4)… Wyoming (66.2)… Texas Tech (64.4)… Nevada (64.2)… Clemson (63.7)… Northern Illinois (63.6)… Troy (63.1)… Marshall (62.7)… UCLA (62.0).
LOWEST average OU line:
Michigan St (44.0)… Virginia Tech (45.2)… Florida (46.0)… South Florida (46.6)… Iowa (47.1)… Memphis (47.6)… Connecticut (48.3)… Florida Intl, TCU (50.1)… Pittsburgh, Virginia (50.3)… Massachusetts (50.4)… Minnesota (50.5).
HIGHEST average OU MARGIN:
New Mexico (+17.1 ppg!)… Indiana (+10.6)… UAB (+8.7)… Iowa St (+7.8)… Ohio St (+7.7)… Illinois (+7.3)… Colorado St (+7.2)… Troy (+6.7)… Michigan, New Mexico St, Oregon St (+6.6)… San Jose St (+6.5)… East Carolina (+6.0).
LOWEST average OU MARGIN:
Louisiana Tech (-9.5 ppg)… Wake Forest (-8.4)… Utah St (-7.0)… Akron (-6.9)… Miami-Oh (-6.6)… Louisville (-6.4)… BYU, Florida, Kent St (-6.1)… Mississippi (-6.0)… Massachusetts (-5.7)… Houston, Tulane (-5.6).
TOTAL results from 2013:
Last season in College Football, there were 422 OVERS and 416 UNDERS. In OVERTIME games, the results were 26-9 O/U. And in non-overtime games, the results were 396-407 O/U.
Overall scoring on the rise or on a decline?
In 2009, the average points scored in a College game was 52.3. The numbers have crept slowly upward. By the end of last season, college scoring was up to 57.1 ppg. So in that five-year period, college games have gone UP by +4.8 ppg.
The actual Over / Under LINES have also gone up. The betting market has been very quick to recognize the higher scoring... and the oddsmakers have adjusted their lines accordingly. In 2009, the average OU line in college football was 52.4. Last season, the average line had risen to 56.8. So the average OU line has also gone up by +4.4 ppg.
Pace of Play / FASTEST teams
The more plays an offense runs, the greater the potential for more points. Last season, Hawaii, under coach Norm Chow, was the fastest team in the country, running 3.46 players per minute. Indiana was second at 3.45. Hoosiers coach Kevin Wilson is 25-10 O/U in his three seasons. BYU (3.39), Marshall (3.36) and Texas Tech (3.33) round out the top five in terms of fastest pace of play.
Here's the full list of the teams that averaged 3 or more offensive plays per minute last year:
HAWAII (3.46)
INDIANA (3.45)
BYU (3.39)
MARSHALL (3.36)
TEXAS TECH (3.33)
BAYLOR (3.32)
WYOMING (3.30)
FRESNO STATE (3.24)
CLEMSON (3.23)
CALIFORNIA (3.21)
OKLAHOMA STATE (3.20)
OREGON (3.18)
HOUSTON (3.17)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (3.16)
TULSA (3.13)
SMU (3.13)
BOISE STATE (3.09)
ARIZONA (3.08)
LOUISIANA TECH (3.07)
TEXAS A&M (3.02)
WASHINGTON (3.00)
The Red Raiders of TEXAS TECH averaged the most plays per game last year at 90.3.
Pace of Play / SLOWEST teams
Some offenses tend to take their time when running plays. It's not a surprise that these teams usually produce more UNDERS than OVERS. Florida played at the slowest pace last season, running an average of just 2.16 plays per minute. Minnesota was the next slowest, running 2.26 players per minute. Louisville (2.27), Kansas State (2.28) and New Mexico (2.34) rounded out the bottom five offenses in plays per minute. The Lobos were the only team out of the five to produce more OVERS than UNDERS. Here's the list of teams that averaged 2.40 offensive plays per minute or less.
FLORIDA (2.16)
MINNESOTA (2.26)
LOUISVILLE (2.27)
KANSAS STATE (2.28)
NEW MEXICO (2.34)
ALABAMA (2.35)
GEORGIA TECH (2.35)
FLORIDA INTL (2.36)
ARKANSAS (2.36)
CENTRAL FLORIDA (2.36)
WISCONSIN (2.37)
UTEP (2.38)
STANFORD (2.39)
TEXAS STATE (2.39)
The Eagles of BOSTON COLLEGE averaged the least amount of plays per game last year at 62.0.
Pace of Play / BY CONFERENCE / Fastest to Slowest
BIG 12 Conference (2.87 plays per minute)
PAC 12 Conference (2.88 plays per minute)
MOUNTAIN WEST Conference (2.85 plays per minute)
Conference USA (2.75 plays per minute)
Independents (2.74 plays per minute)
ACC Conference (2.70 plays per minute)
BIG 10 Conference (2.70 plays per minute)
AAC Conference (2.67 plays per minute)
MAC Conference (2.66 plays per minute)
SUNBELT Conference (2.65 plays per minute)
SEC Conference (2.60 plays per minute)
King's Top OVER teams to look out for in 2014:
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
One of the fastest 'pace of play' teams from last year (3.3 offensive plays per minute) returns 8 starters on offense this season. So the Red Raiders can definitely improve on their 35.8 ppg average on offense (8-5 O/U last year). Coach Kingsbury can perform wonders with any offense. He knows a thing or two about passing. Last year's 511 ypg average on 'O' was the 4th straight year in which there was an improvement from the previous season. But a defense that allowed 30.5 ppg last year returns only 3 starters this season. Looking for the Big 12's best SHOOTOUT team? It's right here!
EAST CAROLINA PIRATES
The Pirates seem to be on the top of our OVER list every season. And why not? They went 8-5 O/U in 2013... 7-4-1 O/U in 2012... and 10-3 O/U in 2010. We love the fact that QB Shane Carden is back again, and he'll bring 6 starters with him from last year's team that put up 40.2 ppg. The inexperience on defense (only 3 returnees) is a clear signal that this team will be involved in multiple high-scoring games this season. They should revert back to the team that allowed 36.0 ppg in 2010, 2011, and 2012.
MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD
We were on multiple Thundering Herd OVERS last season on our service, and it culminated with our 5* Game of the Year winner on Marshall / East Carolina OVER (59 to 28). They averaged more than 500 YPG on offense last year, and guess who's back in 2014? Our main man QB Rakeem Cato. He's one of eight returning starters on 'O' and brought his favorite weapon (WR Tommy Shuler) back with him. Marshall games averaged 65.0 ppg last year. We think those numbers go even higher this season.
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
Early in our article, we mentioned that Ohio State was one of the surprise OVER teams last season... going 10-4 O/U overall. They averaged 512 offensive YPG and 45.5 ppg. This year's edition of the Buckeyes returns nine starters on 'O' including QB Braxton Miller. He's easily one one of the Top 5 impactful returnees this season. On defense, Ohio State allowed 23 ppg for the 2nd year in a row. Those numbers could go up even higher in 2014, with only four starters returning from last year's squad. look for some high OU lines in Buckeye games this season.
King's Top UNDER teams to look out for in 2014:
CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS
The Knights were a middle-of-the-road offensive team last year (#40) and that was against a soft schedule. They ended up going 5-8 O/U. With QB Blake Bortles now off to the NFL, those numbers (34.6 ppg) figure to decline in 2014. But their great defense (21.3 ppg allowed / #29 in the country) is the strength of the team. AND... they return eight starters from last year. In the last four years, the Knights' defense has allowed a consistent 19.5 ppg (21.0... 22.0... 18.0... and 17.0 ppg) The result from a Totals perspective? More UNDERS than OVERS.
GEORGIA BULLDOGS
We see a complete OU reversal this season for the Bulldogs. Last year, 67% of their games went OVER (8-4-1 O/U). In 2014, 67% of more of their games could very well go UNDER. Let's remember, that 37 point-per-game offense does not have QB Aaron Murray this year. Senior QB Hutson Matson did not impress in the Gator Bowl loss to Nebraska. And they return only five starters. But defense figures to be the strength of this Georgia team in 2014. They will welcome back 10 starters from last years team on 'D'.
FLORIDA GATORS
Off a 4-8 O/U season last year, the Gators should continue those UNDER-whelming numbers in 2014. Will Muscamp's team returns seven starters from last year's defense that allowed only 21.1 ppg. On offense, we've never been big fan of QB Jeff Driskel. He 'led' Florida to their worst PPG average in the last ten years (only 18.8 offensive PPG). That was a 7 point decline from 2012. And this offense returns only three starters this season.
TCU HORNED FROGS
Last year was an ugly step backward for HC Gary Patterson and his Horned Frogs, who went 4-8 SU overall. Their strength was on defense, and this year's edition figures to remain strong as they return a whopping eight starters from last year. But offense is a different story. The are still searching for a starting QB that can get this offense into the end zone. With only three starters on 'O' returning this season, that search could last all season long.