2015 NCAAF Conference Preview - MAC
By Will Rogers
Covers.com
Northern Illinois Huskies (2014: 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +325
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Huskies: Northern Illinois comes in not just as the defending MAC champions, but winners of the conference in four of the last five seasons. They bring back 14 starters from 2014, and quarterback Drew Hare returns after throwing for 18 TDs and just two picks in his first year as a starter.
Why not to bet the Huskies: Hare lacks the running ability of Jordan Lynch and Chandler Harnish before him, and the running game might not be as strong as it was last year. They will have to replace Cameron Stingily who led the team with 900 yards and 14 TDs last year. The offensive line is another story, as they only return two starters from last year's unit.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Toledo Rockets (2014: 9-4 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +325
Season win total: 7
Why to bet the Rockets: Kareem Hunt ran for 1631 yards and 18 TDs in 2014, and the star running back will be back for another season. They Rockets are loaded with talent and experience on the defensive side of the ball, and they have the luxury of playing seven home games in 2015.
Why not to bet the Rockets: The biggest concern for this team will be a completely rebuilt offensive line that replaces five starters from a year ago. The non-conference schedule isn't going to be a cakewalk, with a neutral site game versus Arkansas in Week 2, and a home game against Iowa State the following week.
Season win total pick: Over 7
Bowling Green Falcons (2014: 8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +425
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Falcons: This team comes into the 2015 season with almost all of it's key contributors on offense back from a 2014 season that saw them win a second straight MAC East title. Matt Johnson is back at quarterback after suffering a season ending injury in Week 1 last year. Johnson threw for 393 yards and five TDs in the 2013 MAC Championship Game against Northern Illinois.
Why not to bet the Falcons: The outlook isn't as optimistic for the Falcons defense that allowed opponents to average more than 33 points on almost 500 yards per game in 2014. Seven starters need to be replaced, and head coach Dino Babers is rolling the dice with what will be a young and inexperienced defense.
Season win total pick: Over 5
Western Michigan Broncos (2014: 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +525
Season win total: 8
Why to bet the Broncos: This team won eight game in 2014, and it returns 16 starters, nine on offense. Zach Terrell threw for 3443 yards and 26 TDs in 2014, and he was named the MAC's Offensive Player of the Year. He'll have his top two targets back, including Corey Davis who led the MAC with 1,408 receiving yards and 86 receptions last year.
Why not to bet the Broncos: After winning eight games last year, expectations are high in 2015, perhaps too high. Head coach P.J. Fleck admits: "We probably won more games on paper than what kind of football team we actually had." The Broncos have a brutal non conference schedule that includes a week 1 game against Michigan State, and a road game at Ohio State a few weeks later.
Season win total pick: Under 8
Akron Zips (2014: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +900
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Zips: Akron is stacked on the defensive side of the ball, returning six starters from a unit that ranked first in the conference in points allowed last season, allowing opponents to average 23.1 points per game. They also bring in some high profile transfers, including a pair of former Ohio State players in Se'Von Pittman and Jamal Marcus.
Why not to bet the Zips: Akron ranked dead last in the MAC in passing efficiency last year, and third year quarterback Kyle Pohl completed just 55 percent of his passes and threw 18 interceptions in 12 games. The Zips will also be replacing their leading rusher and top two receivers from last year.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Ohio Bobcats (2014: 6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1000
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Bobcats: Senior quarterback Derrius Vick returns after an injury plagued 2014 season that saw him throw for 1156 yards with eight TDs and four INTs. The offensive line returns all five starters, and running back A.J. Ouellette returns after running for 785 yards as a freshman (2nd highest total in team history).
Why not to bet the Bobcats: The biggest problem for the Bobcats might be their schedule, which features a couple tough road games at Northern Illinois and Bowling Green, and non-conference games against Marshall and Minnesota.
Season win total pick: Over 5
Massachusetts Minutemen (2014: 3-9 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2000
Season win total: 4.5
Why to bet the Minutemen: The 2015 squad returns 18 starters from last year, giving them plenty of experience on both sides of the ball. Blake Frohnapfel returns at quarterback for his senior year, and that's good news for an offense that ranked 1st in the conference in passing in 2014.
Why not to bet the Minutemen: After winning a total of five games over the last three seasons, it might be asking a bit too much for this team to win five games this year. The defense will have to come a long way after allowing opponents to average 33 points per game in 2014.
Season win total pick: Under 4.5
Ball State Cardinals (2014: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2300
Season win total: 7
Why to bet the Cardinals: Ball State finished last season strong winning four of it's final six games. They bring back 17 starters from that squad, and they have an abundance of talent and depth at the wide receiver position.
Why not to bet the Cardinals: Pete Lembo will roll the dice with second year quarterback Jack Milas who completed just 55 percent of his passes last year. “I’m not going to say he has arrived by any means,” Lembo says, “but he’s more comfortable out there.”
Season win total pick: Under 7
Kent State Golden Flashes (2014: 2-9 SU, 5-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 4.5
Why to bet the Golden Flashes: Kent State won the MAC Championship in 2012 behind a punishing rushing attack that featured Dri Archer (now with the Pittsburgh Steelers), and 250lb tailback Trayion Durham. Injuries have prevented Durham from reaching his full potential the last two seasons, but if he can stay healthy he should have a breakout season in 2015.
Why not to bet the Golden Flashes: Returning 11 starters on defense sounds like good news, but keeping in mind that this unit allowed opponents to average 29 points and 430 yards per game last year, it's fair to say that there is plenty of work to do.
Season win total pick: Over 4.5
Central Michigan Chippewas (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season win total: 4
Why to bet the Chippewas: They are in good shape with Cooper Rush returning at quarterback for a third season. Rush threw for a record seven TDs in last year's blowout win over Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl.
Why not to bet the Chippewas: Success won't come easy for new head coach John Bonamego, as the Chippewas have a brutal schedule to look forward to. They will be lucky to avoid losing four of their first five games, as they host Oklahoma State in Week 1, before facing Syracuse and Michigan state on the road over the next three weeks. They begin conference play with a home game against the defending champion Huskies.
Season win total pick: Over 4
Buffalo Bulls (2014: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season win total: 5.5
Why to bet the Bulls: Joe Licata will return at quarterback for the Bulls, and he's thrown a school record 60 TD passes over the last three seasons. He'll be handing the ball off to another talented senior in tailback Anthone Taylor, who ran for 1,403 yards last year (second most in school history).
Why not to bet the Bulls: This team will be thin on the defensive side of the ball with just three starters returning from 2014. Buffalo is also taking a huge gamble on a new head coach coming out of Division III, with no FBS experience.
Season win total pick: Under 5.5
Miami-Ohio Redhawks (2014: 2-10 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +17500
Season win total: 4
Why to bet the Redhawks: The strength of this team is in it's defense, which returns four starters on the line, and there is plenty of experience in the defensive backfield. Opening an indoor practice facility is also a positive step for a program that appears to be on the rise.
Why not to bet on the Redhawks: The offense is a mess, as their most experienced quarterback will suit up at defensive end (Austin Gearing), while Gus Ragland and Drew Kummer battle it out for the starting job. It's a similar story at running back and wide receiver with a lack of returning talent leaving holes to be filled by freshman.
Season win total pick: Under 4
Eastern Michigan Eagles (2014: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +30000
Season win total: 1.5
Why to bet the Eagles: They will have a talented young quarterback in Reginald Bell, a former state track champion at California. He ran for 202 yards and three TDs in a win over Buffalo in October of last year, and finished the season strong with nine TD passes over the last seven weeks.
Why not to bet the Eagles: Last year's team ranked among the worst in the nation on defense, allowing over 40 points and nearly 500 yards per game. They return seven defensive starters, so there is a chance that they may improve, but it likely won't be enough to make this team competitive in the MAC.
Season win total pick: Over 1.5