By Doug Upstone
Have some real good info on what is happening in football and baseball today on the wagering front, with numbers jumping around like the stock market. Besides the LINE MOVES, make certain to review the “nuggets’ below with a 15-0 NFL system in play tonight.
NFL- Baltimore at N.Y. Jets 7:00 EDT ESPN
If anything, it was mildly astonishing this AFC opening showdown didn’t have the total sinking sooner. Maybe sports bettors were focused on the early games in the week and came back to this delectable matchup. The Ravens and Jets were announced at 37.5 and the vast majority of those handing out numbers have changed it to 36. Two very good defensive clubs, nevertheless the Flyboys are 16-6-1 OVER in first home games. Update- The total for the most part has risen slightly at a few sportsbooks to 36.5, but not all. The biggest change over the 36 hours is the amount of money coming in on Baltimore, who has gone from three-point underdog to +1.5 or even lower at one more than one online sports betting outlet.
MLB- Philadelphia at Florida 7:10 EDT
The Phillies are in first place all by themselves in the division and maintain a one game lead over Atlanta in the NL East. Philly starter Joe Blanton (6-6, 5.15 ERA) is 5-1 with a 4.16 ERA in his last 16 games and is 4-2 with a 3.35 ERA in career starts against Florida, however is not attracting the kind of action one would expect. Philadelphia and Blanton began the day as -144 money line favorites and have been chopped to -128 or lower. The Marlins are off a three game sweep of Washington and is seeking retribution, having lost all three games to front-running Phils in early August and is 10-3 revenging a three-game sweep at the hands of their opponents over the last two seasons. Nevertheless, Blanton and teammates are 14-3 playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last two years.
MLB- Chic. Cubs at St. Louis 8:15 EDT
The Cardinals are going to need a Colorado spurt to have chance to catch Cincinnati or hunt down wild card berth. Baseball bettors like their chances tonight in series opener against the Cubs, as the action has been like an elected official running unopposed with Jaime Garcia (13-7, 2.69) and the Cards starting as -179 ML home chalk and sky-rocketing to -230 or higher. The Cubs send former Notre Dame football star Jeff Samardzija (0-1, 18.90) to the mound to see if his career is salvageable as starter. As good as this looks, the pricey ML is risky with St. Louis 40-40 against teams with a losing record this year.
MLB- Boston at Seattle 10:10 NESN
Barring a miracle, Boston will miss the postseason for the first time in four years. Jon Lester (16-8, 3.26) would be expected to handle Seattle with ease having won five of previous six starts, but the state of Washington native is 1-2 with a 5.28 ERA in five starts against the Mariners. That is likely the best reasoning for the Red Sox to be -172 or lower ML favorites after commencing the day at -184. Just keep this thought in mind about Seattle, who scored seven total runs in being swept by the Angels. Play Against baseball underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 who are batting .260 or less, vs. an AL starting pitcher who has 3.50 ERA or lower on the season, when this frigid hitting squad is batting .200 or worse over their last three games. This system has been a winner 58 of the last 73 times.
3DW Bonus Info
ATS Nugget
NFL teams like Kansas City in week 1 are 15-0 ATS when they lost by between 25 and 34 the last time they faced the team within the last three years but did score in that game, if that team won between 5 to 12 of its 16 games last year. (Giants won yesterday)
Totals Nugget
Arizona is 9-0 OVER after scoring two runs or less two straight games this season, with average score 12 total runs.
Run Line Nugget
Atlanta is 15-5 against the run line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game on the season, winning by three RPG.
Thanks Clinton