3DW Sports Betting Line Moves – NFL
By Doug Upstone
With an extended period of time to survey the NFL numbers, those moving the lines were 1-3 on side action and crisp 5-1 on the totals. Going back to a more regimented schedule, let’s take a look at what sports bettors are thinking early in the week about the NFL this upcoming Sunday.
NFL- Kansas City at Cleveland 1:00 EDT CBS
The Chiefs impressive performance at home Monday night has them cooking on the football betting lines for upcoming contest with Cleveland. Kansas City was released as 3-point road underdogs on the earliest of lines before the completion of their game against San Diego and since they have fallen to +2 or even a Pick at some locales. This situation does beg caution since the Chiefs were still out-gained by 190 yards and could well be emotionally flat on a short week. Kansas City is 5-15 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half, yet for those that prefer the glass half full, Monday SU winners are 10-5-1 ATS as away dogs and 9-4-1 ATS if they covered the spread. Always check the latest NFL numbers at SBGGlobal.com.
NFL- Philadelphia at Detroit 1:00 EDT FOX
In the battle of backup quarterbacks, NFL football bettors definitely prefer Michael Vick over Shaun Hill. Vick and the Eagles are 4.5-point favorites after opening up at -3. Philadelphia actually flourished with Vick running the offense and should be that much better getting all the snaps this week. Shaun Hill is serviceable signal caller, but did nothing until the he led the Lions on apparent touchdown that was taken away at Chi-Town. The key for Philly is scoring points (granted that is true of any team, but some are not as capable), as they are 12-2 ATS when they total 28 or more points over the last two seasons.
NFL- Baltimore at Cincinnati 1:00 EDT CBS
The Ravens have a division showdown on a short week after a rockem’ sockem’ slugfest with the Jets. Cincinnati showed improved passing game in loss to New England as Carson Palmer has more weapons to throw to and Baltimore’s secondary is not 100 percent. The Bengals secondary had coverage issues with Patriots’ receivers; giving to speculation that original total of 38.5 was to low and has since been bumped to 40. Baltimore is 8-2 OVER as visitors against division partner off a loss and Cincy is 16-5 OVER at home after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half.
NFL- Miami at Minnesota 1:00 EDT CBS
Brett Favre has had extra time to develop chemistry with other receivers, having missed most of camp and not having Sidney Rice to throw to. Even so, with his off kilter effort against New Orleans, those in the sports betting community are not certain everything is repaired in just over a week and have moved this matchup of Minnesota and Miami from 41 to 39 on the total. The Dolphins arrive in the Brett beggar’s land 18-9 UNDER off a division road triumph.
NFL- St. Louis at Oakland 4:05 EDT FOX
What has become second only to Favre comeback news in the NFL, is the annual story of the Oakland Raiders being improved. The talent is better; the coaching situation is more stable, blah, blah, blah. Anyone who witnessed or read the box score from Tennessee tussle came to the same conclusion, the Raiders stink until proven otherwise. This is pointed out in the fact they actually began as 6-point home favorites against the only team they compare to, St. Louis, and even then sports bettors couldn’t bet the Rams fast enough, with Da Raiders now at -3.5. As unsightly as St. Louis is, Oakland is 5-19 ATS as a favorite.
NFL- New England at N.Y. Jets 4:15 EDT CBS
Talked to a full-time sports bettor who makes his own lines on NFL games a month in advance, trusting his beliefs over public perception, based simply on outcomes of contests and he said told me the Jets would have been a 2.5-point favorite against New England before each team played first game of the season. With as anemic as the Jets looked and Tom Brady clicking with his receivers, the Patriots come in as favorites. This has also influenced the total which started at 40 and collapsed to 38. The Jets come into this encounter 17-9-1 UNDER at home after scoring 14 or fewer points.
3DW Bonus Info
ATS Nugget
Atlanta is 7-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in last game.
Money Line Nugget
Houston is 1-12 against the money line in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points.
First Half Line Nugget
The New York Jets are 13-2 against the first half line in home games off a home loss.