4th Quarter Covers - Week 1
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the opening college football weekend.
Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.
Ohio State (-20½) 49, Indiana 21: The Hoosiers looked like an upset threat in this hyped Big Ten opener, as the underdog cover didn’t even seem in question as the Hoosiers led 14-6 well into the second quarter. Ohio State scored to get within one point before the break before a lull in the scoring after halftime. Ohio State would score three touchdowns in the final seven minutes of the third quarter with a pair of big play scores to turn the game around leading 35-21 heading into the final frame when Indiana had led 21-20 with just a few minutes remaining in the third quarter. Taking advantage of a turnover Ohio State slipped past the spread early in the fourth quarter to lead 42-21. Indiana reached midfield on its next possession to threaten the number but an interception ended the threat and Ohio State went 87 yards to burn six minutes of clock, punching in one more touchdown for a 28-point final margin in game that felt much closer than that most of the way.
Arizona State (-26½) 37, New Mexico State 31: A one-point game at halftime, Arizona State scored four straight times to start the second half to lead 37-13 early in the fourth quarter on a spread that dipped as low -22½ before climbing back up right before game time. Those following the line move were burned as New Mexico State played to the end, scoring 18 points in the final nine minutes including a 29-yard touchdown pass as time expired. With a total that fell as low as 69 at closing, the Aggies didn’t bother attempting an extra-point after that score that didn’t impact the outcome but certainly could have impacted total wagers.
Wisconsin (-27) 59, Utah State 10: The Badgers had a slow start, trailing 10-0 for the first 28 minutes of the game before a turnover helped the Badgers to tie the game by halftime. Wisconsin took charge in the second half and slipped past the spread just before the start of the 4th quarter and eventually tacked on three more scores in the final 10 minutes to create a somewhat misleading lopsided final.
Louisville (-25½) 35, Purdue 28 (66): Purdue made it clear early this was going to be a competitive game and that the underdog would be the right side. The total wound up a very close call despite statistics that would indicate a clear ‘over’ game as these teams combined for 52 first downs and 103 pass attempts. The first half featured Louisville fumbling in the red zone on three separate possessions however while Purdue also missed a field goal to leave a 14-10 score at halftime. An interception return touchdown helped the scoring pace in the third quarter and with still nine minutes to go in a very tight game the combined score reached 60 as the ‘over’ pace had caught up. Louisville settled for a short field goal to lead by seven to leave overtime a possibility but a productive Purdue drive into Louisville territory ended with an interception. The Boilermakers got another shot forcing a punt but pinned deep into their own territory they failed on downs and the ‘under’ held on.
Nebraska (-14½) 43, Arkansas State 36: On back-to-back plays there was a punt return and a kickoff return touchdown in this game for a wild first quarter. Nebraska led by just one at halftime but pulled away with a touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter to lead 41-26, just past the number. Arkansas State settled for a field goal and Nebraska later earned a safety for a 14-point edge, just short of the spread for most on the Huskers. Nebraska was unable to put the game away and Arkansas State connected for a touchdown in the final minute to trail by only seven, securing the underdog cover. Arkansas State was actually a serious threat to score again as they recovered an onside kick and had two throws from the Nebraska 11-yard-line in the final seconds.
Mississippi (-21½) 47, South Alabama 27: Ole Miss struggled in the first half of the opener with just a 13-10 edge at the break but Shea Patterson connected on a few big throws in the third quarter while the Rebels also had a kickoff return touchdown to take a 40-13 edge into the final frame. Mississippi scored again in the fourth as the Rebels were well past the favorite spread that dropped from -27 down to -21½ by game time with a 34-point advantage. South Alabama cut the deficit to 27 with a 75-yard touchdown drive but another big kickoff return but the Rebels immediately back in scoring range. With Patterson still in the game the Rebels were stuffed however and wound up missing a 45-yard field goal. That gave the Jaguars a golden opportunity for a backdoor cover and they delivered with another touchdown drive mostly on the ground to make the final score and statistics a bit more respectable.
Notre Dame (-20) 49, Temple 16: The Irish took control of this game quickly and at halftime led 28-10, even with a common spread of -18 before the line took off Saturday afternoon before game time. Notre Dame briefly went up by 25 but Temple answered early in the fourth quarter though with a missed extra-point to push the margin to 19 points. It wound up not mattering as Notre Dame added two more rushing touchdowns in the final six minutes for an even more convincing final number.
Auburn (-34½) 41, Georgia Southern 7: Auburn had three turnovers to struggle to pull away from Georgia Southern with a spread that hovered around the five touchdown mark all week. The Tigers led just 24-7 at halftime and were short of the number with a 34-7 edge heading into the fourth quarter. The Tigers posted a 95-yard touchdown drive in the final frame but it wasn’t quite enough for most with a 34-point final margin. It is hard to find a more lopsided box score with Georgia Southern netting 78 total yards and their only points coming on a fumble return despite the ATS win for the underdog. Auburn reached the 25-yard-line on its final possession but came up empty going for it on 4th down rather than attempting a field goal.
Kentucky (-9½) 24, Southern Miss 17: The Wildcats were past a hefty road favorite price with a 14-3 edge at halftime but Southern Miss connected for a big pass play to get within four early in the third quarter. Kentucky used a short field to extend its lead to seven points with a late third quarter field goal and then got the play of the game a few plays later with a fumble return touchdown. That made it a 14-point game heading into the fourth quarter but Southern Miss responded with an 11 play touchdown drive to climb back to within a one score margin. Southern Miss fumbled on its next possession and then opted to punt on its next drive from the Kentucky 45-yard line with just over five minutes to go. Kentucky managed to get a few first downs and burn some clock, shifting the field position and pinning the Golden Eagles deep in their own territory, where they wound up stranded to end the game. Despite the fourth quarter score for the underdog cover Southern Miss had the edge in the statistics.
Alabama (-7½) 24, Florida State 7: Technically a late third quarter cover but the biggest game of the week certainly had a misleading final score as Florida State was the more productive offensive team most of the way before a disastrous stretch in the third quarter. Both teams had missed opportunities to score more early but Alabama led just 10-7 at the half and still just 13-7 after Florida State held the Tide to a field goal after a blocked punt put Alabama at the six-yard line. Florida State fumbled on the ensuing kickoff to hand Alabama another red zone opportunity and they cashed in this time with a 1st down touchdown to lead 21-7. Florida State was still a touchdown away from covering but back-to-back interceptions followed and Alabama added another field goal in the fourth quarter to seal the win with the three second half scores for Alabama coming on drives of -1, 11, and 16 yards.
Boise State (-11) 24, Troy 13: With the help of a punt return touchdown Boise State led 14-3 against Troy but the Trojans got back into the game with an interception return touchdown. The Broncos led by just seven going into the fourth quarter and Troy trimmed that edge to just four points with a field goal. Up by 4, Boise State went for it on 4th-and-1 from the Troy 20 yard line and fell short but on the very next play Troy gave the ball back with an interception. Boise State used a short field to connect for a touchdown with just over two minutes to go in the game for a 24-13 edge, slipping by the spread for some with a number that opened at -12½ before falling all the way to -10 and climbing to -11 by kickoff.
West Virginia (-5½) 31, West Virginia 24: The renewal of this rivalry lived up to the billing Sunday night with a tight game throughout and neither team ever scoring consecutively. West Virginia trailed 10-7 at the half which would have been enough to cover on a spread that fluctuated from +4 to +5. Virginia Tech took a 24-17 lead into the fourth quarter on a one-play drive following a great kickoff return but West Virginia hit a big play early in the fourth quarter to knot the score at 24-24. After trading punts Josh Jackson delivered an 82-yard drive for the go-ahead touchdown with just over six minutes to go. The Hokies later had a chance to put the game away but a 32-yard field goal was missed and in the final seconds West Virginia quarterback Will Grier had a pair of shots to the end zone but both fell incomplete as the Hokies won and covered despite trailing the Mountaineers in most of the statistics.