4th Quarter Covers - Week 12
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 12th college football weekend as the season heads to the final few weeks. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.
Northern Illinois (-3½) 27, Toledo 24: Toledo wound up with more yardage in the big Tuesday night MAC West showdown, but Northern Illinois stays on top in the division for another season. It was not enough to cover the spread as the Huskies pulled in front 27-17 with just over six minutes to go in the game to seal the deal, but Toledo would score a touchdown to get back within three with just over two minutes to go. The on-side kick attempt failed and the Rockets did not get the ball back until there was just three seconds left on the clock.
Cincinnati (+1) 54, East Carolina 46: A shootout was expected Thursday night in this AAC clash and the game did not disappoint. Cincinnati was up 38-20 early in the third quarter, but the Pirates were within four early in the fourth quarter and things got wild in the final five minutes. Cincinnati completed a 12-play, 92-yard touchdown drive to seemingly put the game away with less than five minutes to go, leading by 11. East Carolina scored in just over a minute to get within five, failing on the two-point conversion and kicking it deep. That move paid off as Cincinnati opted to go for it on fourth down, fumbling and setting the Pirates up in great position. Two pass interference penalties helped the cause as East Carolina found the end zone leading 46-45 after another failed two-point try. Cincinnati had just over a minute left to work with, but they moved into field goal range and got the go-ahead kick from 47 yards with just 15 seconds left on the clock. In the final play scramble, the Bearcats scooped the loose ball and returned it for a touchdown to pas the final score as well, though the play did not impact the spread or total.
USC (-14) 38, California 30: The Bears are the perfect team for backdoor covers so no one on favored USC Thursday night should have been surprised that a 31-2 lead late in the second quarter was not safe. Cal would score a touchdown just before halftime and then scored the only points of the third quarter to climb within 15 points. The spread on the game briefly touched 15 during the week but most lines were either at 14 or 14½, setting up the late drama. USC sealed the outcome with a fourth quarter touchdown to lead by 22, but Cal would get back within 15 with six minutes to go and then complete an 80-yard drive with just under two minutes to go to score the underdog win.
North Carolina (-2½) 40, Pittsburgh 35: The Panthers stormed out to a 14-0 first quarter lead in Chapel Hill, but the Tar Heels rallied back getting within two by the end of the third quarter, trailing 28-26. After forcing a punt, North Carolina scored early in the fourth quarter as quarterback Marquise Williams rushed for 45 yards to put the Tar Heels up by six after a successful two-point conversion. Pittsburgh eventually answered to take the lead back with less than four minutes remaining, leading by one. North Carolina put together the drive of its season, going 75 yards in 13 plays including a big fourth down conversion as the Tar Heels took a five-point lead with less than a minute to go in the game. Pittsburgh quarterback Chad Voytik gave the Panthers late hope scrambling to midfield to set-up at least a final heave or two to the end zone, but he was hit hard by converging defenders and the ball popped out to end the game as the Tar Heels stole a late win in what may have been a post-season elimination game.
Penn State (-10½) 30, Temple 13: Penn State seemed to take control of this game, breaking open what was a 6-6 game late into the third quarter with a long touchdown run in a rare two-play scoring drive for the Lions. An interception set up the Lions inside the Temple 10-yard line just a minute later and Penn State took advantage to up 20-6. The scoring spree continued to the chagrin of ‘under’ players on one of the lowest totals on the board Saturday as Temple delivered a 75-yard touchdown on first down to get with seven as 24 points were scored in less than two minutes of game clock. An interception return touchdown put Penn State past the spread early in the fourth quarter and the ‘over’ hit with a Penn State field goal a few minutes later as the Lions became bowl eligible.
Ohio State (-11½) 31, Minnesota 24: In frigid conditions in Minneapolis, Minnesota rallied back to tie Ohio State at 14-14 late in the second quarter, but Ohio State scored the next 17 points, leading 31-14 early in the fourth quarter and sitting past the favorite spread that dropped sharply Saturday morning. The Gophers were handed a short field a few minutes later and took advantage with a touchdown to get within 10 and then ultimately added a late field goal to seal the underdog cover in a game that was rarely as close as the final score represents as two Minnesota touchdowns came on drives of fewer than 40 yards.
Rutgers (-10) 45, Indiana 23: This line jumped on game day and the favorite Rutgers appeared to be in trouble, trailing 16-10 into the third quarter. Rutgers scored three consecutive touchdowns in the final nine minutes of the third quarter to lead 31-16 heading into the final frame, aided by back-to-back turnovers from the Hoosiers. Indiana went 80 yards on its next drive to climb within the spread early in the fourth quarter, but Rutgers answered with a big pass play and then added another late touchdown to create a bit of a misleading final as Indiana won the yardage battle in this Big Ten clash.
Virginia Tech (+3½) 17, Duke 16: Despite limited production, Duke appeared on its way to another win as they led 16-7 late in the third quarter scoring on drives of 51, 66, 28, and 43 yards while Virginia Tech went 98 yards on their lone scoring drive. The Hokies got a break with a turnover late in the third and despite going backwards they managed a field goal to get within six points entering the final frame. On the ensuing kickoff Duke fumbled, setting up Virginia Tech in great field position again and the Hokies converted It into a touchdown to lead 17-16 early in the fourth quarter. Duke punted on its next two possessions and then playing with the lead and facing fourth-and-long from near midfield the Hokies went for a fake punt, picking up 10 yards but not enough to extend the drive. With some momentum and good field position, Duke went right down the field but a 40-yard go-ahead field goal missed. Duke still had its timeouts and after forcing a punt the Blue Devils were given another change with two minutes to go and starting again in good field position. The Hokies stepped up on defense with back-to-back sacks to force Duke to go for it on fourth-and-21 and Virginia Tech held on for the minor upset.
Air Force (-3) 45, Nevada 38: The Mountain West clash was an entertaining back-and-forth game that featured five ties and neither team scoring consecutively. Air Force led by seven at the end of every quarter, but Nevada always answered tying the game with a field goal from just 22 yards with 12 seconds left as the Wolf Pack could not find the end zone for the win. Air Force actually attempted a 61-yard field goal at the end of regulation, ignoring the lesson from Nick Saban last season, but no harm was done. In overtime, Air Force went first and cashed in with a touchdown and that would hold for the win and cover for the favorite as Nevada could not answer.
South Alabama (-5½) 24, Texas State 20: Not many teams can survive a -4 turnover deficit and covering as a favorite with that disadvantage is nearly impossible. South Alabama would rally from an early deficit to tie this game at 17-17 early in the second half and by a few minutes into the fourth quarter that Jaguars had a seven-point lead, past the slight home favorite spread. After an interception, Texas State was handed a golden opportunity to tie the game with great field position, but with just over four minutes to go the Bobcats opted for the field goal rather than going for it on fourth-and-9. Those backing the underdog were grateful with the margin down to four points after the successful kick and the strategy actually did work as the Texas State defense forced a punt and the Bobcats had the ball back at the 45-yard line with plenty of time to work with. With the underdog cover in hand, Texas State ran six plays from inside the South Alabama 20-yard line in the final seconds, but they could not get the job done.
Oklahoma (-13½) 42, Texas Tech 30: There has not been much for Texas Tech to feel good about this season, but perhaps there is some solace in the fact that they cost a lot of Oklahoma supporters money with a late score on Saturday. Texas Tech actually led this game 24-21 early in the fourth quarter and the yardage was nearly equal, but Oklahoma scored three consecutive touchdowns in the fourth quarter to open up an 18-point lead. On the final play of the game, Texas Tech connected for a touchdown on a 39-yard pass play, meaningless in the Big XII contest, but very meaningful to the spread.
South Carolina (+7) 23, Florida 20: South Carolina stormed out to a 10-0 lead against Florida, but the Gamecocks would not have a drive longer than 34 yards for the rest of the game. The Gators led 17-10 late in the third quarter and appeared poised to add more points before a fumble in South Carolina territory. Later in the final quarter, Florida lined up for a 32-yard field goal to seemingly put the game away with less than four minutes to go. The kick was blocked to leave the margin right on the number. South Carolina was forced to go for it on fourth down near midfield and the Gators got the stop to take over with just over two minutes to go. South Carolina held on defense to force a punt and incredibly that kick was also blocked setting up the Gamecocks with a great chance to extend the game, though with less than 40 seconds left. A pass interference call helped South Carolina, but then the Gamecocks fumbled to seemingly give away the chance to tie. The bounces went South Carolina’s way as Mike Davis recovered in the end zone for the tying score. In overtime, Florida had to settle for a field goal while South Carolina stole the outright win with a touchdown as Florida found yet another incredible way to lose a game. The Gators had eight drives in regulation into South Carolina territory to only post 17 points while South Carolina failed to cross the 40-yard line on 10 of 11 drives after taking a 10-0 lead until getting the blocked punt.
Florida State (-2) 30, Miami, FL 26: Miami led 16-0 early in this game and 23-7 in the second quarter, but in a comeback you could see coming a mile away, Florida State rallied as they have done all season. The undefeated Seminoles climbed to within three points early in the fourth quarter and Miami also had to settle for a field goal to keep the margin at just one score. Florida State hit a long 53-yard field goal to get back within three and then a Miami offense that struggled and went conservative in the second half had to give the Seminoles the ball back. With just over three minutes to go, Dalvin Cook broke free for a 26-yard touchdown run to put Florida State up by four, past the small road favorite spread. Miami moved into Florida State territory on its final drive, but a fourth down interception sealed another win for the Seminoles.
Alabama (-10) 25, Mississippi State 20: The Tide stormed out to a 19-0 lead in Saturday’s big showcase game with the SEC West potentially on the line. None of the drives were of substantial yardage as Mississippi State wound up soundly out-gaining Alabama for game. Mississippi State had to settle for two short field goals in the middle of the game, but finally broke through with a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to trim the deficit to just six points. Alabama answered with its best drive of the game to push the lead back up to 12 points. Mississippi State appeared poised to get right back in the game, but a solid drive ended in a red zone interception. The Bulldogs would add a late touchdown for a backdoor cover, but with just 15 seconds to go there was not enough time to keep the undefeated season alive.