4th Quarter Covers - Week 3
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the third college football weekend. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.
Cincinnati (-9) 58, Toledo 34: In its first game of the season, Cincinnati came out fired up in a Friday night primetime matchup, leading 34-0 early in the second quarter. Toledo had to play with a back-up quarterback but the Rockets showed great resolve not throwing in the towel, despite losing 41-14 at the half. Toledo would score five straight times from the late second quarter to the start of the fourth quarter to pull within seven points and within the spread for an incredible comeback. Cincinnati would regroup to put the game away with 17 points late in a game where both teams topped 560 yards.
Baylor (-33) 63, Buffalo 21: Baylor had the spread covered by halftime, up 35-0 but Buffalo would score two touchdowns in the third quarter to keep pace, down 49-14 entering the fourth and right even with a spread that was at 35 much of the week before falling on Friday. Baylor put the game away with two more touchdowns even with back-ups in the game and a late score from Buffalo did not impact the spread result.
Missouri (-10½) 38, Central Florida 10: This was a four-point game at the half and Missouri led by just 11, even with the spread for many entering the fourth quarter. Four turnovers eventually caught up to Central Florida as Missouri added 17 points in the fourth quarter to pull away in a game where the Tigers had fewer first downs and only 20 more total yards despite the 28-point final margin. A 60-yard fumble return touchdown with 13 seconds to go helped to pad the score for Missouri as this was not the blowout that the final score represents.
Boise State (-15½) 38, Connecticut 21: Chalk players got away with one in this road test for Boise State as the Broncos led by just three entering the fourth quarter. Both teams had fewer than 300 yards and Boise State only had 13 first downs in the game as they scored early on a fumble return touchdown and late on an interception return touchdown to pad the scoring. That late pick-6 with four minutes to go was enough to get the Broncos just past the road favorite spread in a game that was pretty even statistically.
West Virginia (+3½) 40, Maryland 37: West Virginia had nearly 700 yards of offense and the Mountaineers led 28-6 in the second quarter. Maryland stormed back as they were within one point just 14 seconds into the second half. West Virginia rallied to go up by 10 entering the fourth quarter, but turnovers kept Maryland in the game as the game was tied after a Maryland punt return touchdown. West Virginia escaped with the win on a last second field goal of 47 yards, but sloppy play nearly took out the Mountaineers who won on the road despite a 4-1 turnover deficit.
Air Force (-12) 48, Georgia State 38: Air Force was in charge early in this game with a 31-10 halftime lead, but Georgia State would chip away with two long scoring drives in the third quarter to close within 14 entering the final frame. A touchdown drive early in the fourth seemed to put the Falcons in control to cover with a 21-point lead, but Georgia State would score two touchdowns in the final 11 minutes to close the final margin to just 10 points, earning the underdog cover with the final touchdown with about five minutes to go.
Middle Tennessee State (PK) 50, Western Kentucky 47: A game that had an even line proved to be quite even on the scoreboard as well. After a 24-24 first half there was incredibly no scoring in the third quarter but both teams hit short field goals in the final three minutes to send the game to overtime. Both teams scored touchdowns in the first session and then settled for field goals in the second session. Western Kentucky again settled for three in the third overtime and it took the Blue Raiders just one play to score a touchdown to win and cover despite allowing over 700 yards in the game.
Stanford (-30) 35, Army 0: While USC could not avoid an upset after the big Stanford/USC game last week, Stanford survived though it was not as dominant of a performance as this score makes it look. Stanford had modest yardage production with just 415 total yards and the Cardinal led just 14-0 late into the third quarter. Stanford had two fourth quarter touchdowns to pull away and slip past the spread.
Utah State (-15½) 36, Wake Forest 24: The Aggies led 29-7 at the half, but Utah State would again lose quarterback Chuckie Keeton to injury after he missed much of last season. Utah State would just score once more leading 36-21 late in the third quarter to be even with the common spread of 15, though many got in on the Aggies at -14 earlier in the week. It would not matter as Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson opted to kick a field goal with 16 minutes to go and his team down 15, a bit puzzling since the team needed two touchdowns.
LSU (-30) 31, UL-Monroe 0: LSU had a dominant defensive performance in this game, but it took a fourth quarter touchdown for the Tigers to get past the spread. LSU was conservative on offense rushing the ball 52 times while the defense surrendered just 93 net yards.
Oklahoma (-21) 34, Tennessee 10: The Sooners were in control the entire way against Tennessee, but getting past a three touchdown spread took some breaks. In the game, the Sooners had two interceptions in its own end zone including a fourth-quarter pick-6 that was returned 100 yards, turning a 17-point lead into the 24-point final margin.
Northern Illinois (-9½) 48, UNLV 34: The Huskies led 28-5 early in the second half but UNLV closed to within five points with back-to-back scores in a two-minute span late in the third quarter. The game wound up tied at 34-34 with just nine minutes to go, but NIU answered the UNLV tying score with a 54-yard pass play for a touchdown. With two minutes left, the Huskies completed a 10-play 80-yard drive to seal the win and steal the road favorite cover.
Arizona State (-16½) 38, Colorado 24: Arizona State led 38-17 entering the fourth quarter in this game, despite Colorado winding up with a fairly substantial yardage edge as a home underdog, out-gaining the Sun Devils 545-426. Colorado completed a 99-yard drive in the fourth quarter to get within the spread, but the big blow for Arizona State came with quarterback Taylor Kelly getting injured late in a game that was in hand.
Arizona (-20) 35, Nevada 28: The last game to start on Saturday featured a big line move backing the favorite with the spread moving from -14½ to -20. The yardage wound up pretty close as Arizona never got past the nearly three-touchdown spread, but they came close as they were deep in Nevada territory up by 14 in the fourth quarter before a key penalty pushed the team backwards. Nevada added a touchdown late and then actually wound up near midfield with a chance to tie in the final minutes as Arizona has had back-to-back sloppy fourth quarters the past two games.