4th Quarter Covers - Week 4
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fourth college football weekend.
Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.
TCU (-22) 33, SMU 3: This local rivalry game featured just three field goals in the first half as TCU held just a 6-3 lead as a heavy road favorite. In the third quarter the Horned Frogs hit a few big plays but were still short of the spread with a 20-3 edge. A field goal early in the final frame got TCU closer with a 23-3 edge and then with fewer than seven minutes remaining the Frogs added another three-pointer to lead 26-3. SMU threatened on its next possession but an interception gave TCU the ball back and the game was put away a few plays later with a touchdown strike to hit the 33-3 final advantage.
Utah (-3) 31, USC 27: Looking to avoid a 1-3 start to the season USC led most of Friday’s Pac-12 tilt including holding a 24-10 lead as an underdog late in the third quarter. Utah completed an 85-yard drive recovering its own fumble in the end zone late in the third quarter to get within seven but early in the final frame the Trojans hit a field goal to build a comfortable 10-point lead. Utah would answer with a five minute drive to get within three points but USC moved into Utah territory on its next possession. Clay Helton faced a big decision opting to punt on 4th-and-3 with just over five minutes to go just outside of field goal range. The move looked successful with Utah pinned at the 7-yard line but Troy Williams engineered one of the drives of the season with a 15-play effort that featured two 4th down conversions and put the Utah in the end zone with just 16 seconds on the clock, getting the win and narrow cover in the process.
Virginia (+5) 49, Central Michigan 35: Virginia took command with a 28-0 lead not even 20 minutes into this game with the Cavaliers seeking their first win under Bronco Mendenhall. Central Michigan chipped away to cut the margin in half by halftime and a defensive touchdown put the Chippewas within seven through three quarters. On the first play of the fourth quarter Central Michigan tied the game at 28-28 giving the slight road favorite hope for a miracle comeback win. Virginia hit an 82-yard pass play to go back in front however and then completed two more scoring drives later in the final frame to take control, eventually winning by 14.
Ball State (-3½) 31, Florida Atlantic 27: Florida Atlantic led by seven well into the third quarter before Ball State hit a 29-yard passing touchdown to tie the game. Early in the fourth quarter the underdog Owls hit a 41-yard field goal to lead by three but in the final two minutes Ball State completed a 70-yard drive to go up by four, just past the closing spread.
West Virginia (-9) 35, BYU 32: The spread on this game jumped before game time as West Virginia was a favorite of below a touchdown most of the week for this game at FedEx Field. The Mountaineers led by nine heading into the fourth quarter and made it a 35-19 edge early in the final frame. BYU rallied with back-to-back touchdowns to close within three before turnovers ended the next three drives with a BYU interception handed back on a fumble a few plays later and a late 66-yard drive from BYU ending with an interception at the goal line.
Baylor (-6½) 35, Oklahoma State 24: The favored Bears saw this line drop all week even slipping below seven Saturday. The Bears struck early but the saw the game delayed nearly two hours with lightning. Both offenses were a bit out of sync from there with the Bears holding a seven-point edge at the half but Oklahoma State had closed to within four points late in the third quarter. Both coaching staffs got aggressive in the 16 minutes as late in the third quarter Baylor went for it on 4th-and-short from their own 24-yard line. The move backfired but Oklahoma State didn’t take advantage, going for it and coming up short on 4th-and-2 from the Baylor 4-yard line instead of kicking a field goal to get within a point. Getting the ball back the Cowboys had a productive drive but after a 38-yard run into the red zone Oklahoma State running back Justice Hill fumbled on the next play just before he went into the end zone. Taking over at their own 1-yard line the Bears went 99 yards to go up by 11 and past the favorite spread. The next Cowboy possession ended with an interception and Oklahoma State ran out of time on its final drive despite getting inside the 20-yard line as Baylor escaped with a rather fortunate favorite cover.
Louisville (-31) 59, Marshall 28: This game ended at the closing line but the heavily favored Cardinals were favored by fewer than 31 points all week before a climb on game day. It looked like the number wouldn’t matter as after a slow start Louisville pulled away in the middle quarters and led 52-7 heading into the final quarter. Marshall scored two touchdowns in 15 seconds of game clock with the help of a fumble return before the teams traded touchdowns in the final minutes. Louisville ended the game at the Marshall 7-yard line to leave the margin right at 31.
Purdue (-3½) 24, Nevada 14: The Boilermakers trailed 14-3 early before climbing within four just before halftime. In the third quarter a short scoring drive put Purdue up by three but it took until the final two minutes of the game for the Boilermakers to get past the favorite spread. With 1:17 left on the clock a 51-yard pass play put Purdue up by 10 as the Boilermakers got the win and cover despite a 4-0 turnover deficit.
Tulane (-3) 41, UL-Lafayette 39: Tulane took a 16-9 lead into the fourth quarter, scoring the first touchdown of the game late in the third quarter. With about six minutes to go the Ragin’ Cajuns were able to tie the game and overtime was needed after neither team mounted a final threat. Few overtime games end with a two-point margin but this low scoring game wound up with a misleading shootout final score as both teams scored touchdowns in the first and second extra sessions. In the third session UL-Lafayette settled for a short field goal as Tulane backers had hopes for a closing line push but the Wave went backwards and needed a difficult 48-yard kick to extend the game. The spread on the game was closer to -5 most of the week and a favorite cover look possible as Tulane went first in the fourth overtime and scored a touchdown with a successful two-point conversion. The underdog Cajuns spoiled that chance quickly with a 2nd down touchdown but a failed conversion ended the game.
Middle Tennessee State (-4½) 38, Louisiana Tech 34: Getting a favorite cover seemed impossible for the Blue Raiders with a 27-7 deficit halfway through the third quarter but this Conference USA clash turned sharply as Middle Tennessee State trimmed the deficit to 10 points by the start of the fourth quarter. While the line was above -4½ most of the week it did fall to -4 Saturday before climbing back to -4½ by kickoff and with a pair of scores early in the fourth quarter the Blue Raiders held a four-point lead. Louisiana Tech answered to take the lead back but the Blue Raiders would return the favor to steal a wild comeback win 38-34, holding on four plays from inside their own 10-yard line in the final two minutes. Most on the underdog Bulldogs still covered but it was a drastic turn of events in Murfreesboro.
Kentucky (-2) 17, South Carolina 10: The outright winner was going to cover in most scenarios in this matchup at the bottom of the SEC East. Through three quarters a low scoring affair was knotted at 10-10. Kentucky had an 11-play drive to take a 17-10 lead early in the fourth quarter. Both teams traded punts from there and South Carolina was in the unenviable position of needing to go for it on 4th-and-17 just inside of Kentucky territory, predictably failing with a sack to essentially end the game.
Tennessee (-4½) 38, Florida 28: The Gators opened up a 21-0 early edge in the big SEC East clash and still held a 21-3 edge at the half. While the Gators still led 21-17 entering the fourth quarter the wheels were falling off with momentum shifting to the hosts and Tennessee would score three touchdowns in the span of just over four minutes of game clock in the fourth quarter to completely flip the outcome and pull past a favorite spread that dropped all week. Florida would climb within 10 late but the Volunteers came away with a big win in a tale of two halves.
Auburn (+3) 18, LSU 13: 24 of the 31 points in this game were scored on field goals and an Auburn 3-point kick with under three minutes to go in the game appeared to seal the win up 18-13 after LSU had a 13-12 edge entering the fourth quarter. LSU had one final play from the Auburn 10 yard line as the clock was ticking and Danny Etling appeared to connect with Travin Dural in the end zone for the go-ahead score. LSU would have gone for two up by one and a successful conversion would have meant a cover or push for many on LSU. In a shocking turn of events however replay review ruled that LSU didn’t get the play off in time and the game ended with Auburn on top.
Boise State (-17) 38, Oregon State 24: The Broncos held a 31-7 lead at the half but the cover proved in play late as Oregon State scored all 10 points in the third quarter to climb within 14 and just within the underdog spread. With just over three minutes to go it appeared the road favorite cover would work out with a fumble return touchdown to lead by 21 but on the ensuing kickoff Victor Bolden took it 99 yards to the house for Oregon State and 14 points was the closing margin as the underdog Beavers held on to the cover for most though some early week Boise State backers may have gotten in at -13½.
Air Force (-5½) 27, Utah State 20: Air Force took advantage of a turnover just before halftime to take a 17-10 lead. In the third quarter both teams had long drives that ended with no points including Utah State coming up empty after an 85-yard drive but the Aggies added a field goal in the fourth quarter to close within four points, and just enough for an underdog cover. The Aggies held on defense and got the ball back but a fumble handed Air Force a 13-yard field and the Falcons took advantage to take an 11-point lead. Utah State desperately went for it on 4th down in their own territory with about five minutes to go and came up empty as Air Force added another three points and a late Utah State touchdown wasn’t quite enough for the underdog Aggies despite a severe yardage edge in this Mountain West opener.
Arizona State (-4) 51, California 41: An expected late night shootout in the Pac-12 took some time to materialize as Cal led 14-3 late in the second quarter before a flurry of points just before the half made it 24-10. California still led by seven entering the fourth quarter and Arizona State didn’t tie the game until about six minutes to go at 34-34. A field goal gave the Sun Devils their first lead of the game with just over three minutes to go, though they still sat short of the favorite spread. Disaster struck the Bears, allowing an interception return touchdown that put Arizona State up by 10. The Bears would answer with a touchdown in the final minute of the game to seemingly hold the underdog cover but the on-side kick attempt was returned 42 yards for a touchdown as Arizona State escaped in a wild finish.
Stanford (-3) 22, UCLA 13: Stanford trailed nearly the entire way against UCLA, netting only field goals with a 13-9 deficit well into the fourth quarter. Stanford found the end zone for the first time in the game with a great catch to complete a 10-play drive with only 24 seconds remaining on the clock. That put the Cardinal even with the common number of -3 though for a while Saturday morning -2½ became available. UCLA made a threat in the remaining seconds as a pass got the Bruins to midfield and then just missed another completion that could have set-up a field goal. On the final play Josh Rosen was sacked and a fumble was picked up and returned for an unnecessary score with no time on the clock, giving an incredibly lucky clear cover to Stanford.