4th Quarter Covers - Week 5
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fifth college football weekend closing out September. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.
Georgia Southern (-17) 34, Appalachian State 14: Georgia Southern stormed out to a 17-0 lead in this matchup of former Southern Conference rivals but Appalachian State rallied to close to within 10 points by halftime. Appalachian State spent the entire third quarter on the doorstep to score but they wound up failing on 4th and 4 inside the Georgia Southern 10 as the kicking game was avoided after great struggles in the previous game. Appalachian State was handed great field position again after a blocked punt but an interception at the one-yard line ended that threat and Georgia Southern put together back-to-back scoring drives to go up by 20, just past the favorite spread that climbed as high as -19½ on Thursday. In the fourth quarter Appalachian State would drive down the Georgia Southern 12-yard line only to again come up empty as the underdog certainly had plenty of opportunities to earn the cover.
Oklahoma State (-14) 45, Texas Tech 35: Both teams had over 500 yards in this game and with a seven-point margin heading into the fourth quarter a tight finish seemed possible. Oklahoma State settled for a field goal to go up by 10 early in the fourth quarter and then after a turnover the Cowboys punched in a touchdown to take a 45-28 lead, past the home favorite spread. As he has been known to do from time-to-time, Mike Gundy went for the onside kick up by 17 with about eight minutes to go in the game. Texas Tech took advantage of the short field for a spread-busting touchdown behind back-up quarterback Patrick Mahomes with six minutes to go.
Fresno State (-6½) 35, New Mexico 24: Fresno State had a big yardage edge against New Mexico Friday night but they also had two turnovers as they struggled to pull away, actually trailing 24-21 late in the third quarter. Fresno State scored in the final minute of the third quarter to lead by four and scored three minutes into the fourth quarter to go up by 11. New Mexico had four fourth quarter possessions but the Lobos never threatened to score in the final frame.
Baylor (-20½) 49, Iowa State 28: With a 35-7 halftime lead this year’s meeting between Baylor and Iowa State did not look much different than last season’s 71-7 rout. The Cyclones and Bears would exchange four touchdowns in the third quarter to keep the margin at 28 points heading into the final frame. The spread on this game fluctuated between 22½ at the opening to the closing number of 20½ but most on the favored Bears were burned by a 51-yard touchdown pass from Iowa State with less than five minutes to go, trimming the final margin to just 21 points.
Virginia (-26) 45, Kent State 13: A Virginia team that won just two games last season is not accustomed to being this type of a favorite and the Cavaliers actually trailed 10-7 after the first quarter and then led just 17-10 more than halfway through the third quarter. Virginia would score four touchdowns in the span of about 13 minutes of game clock to put the game away. Two of the scoring drives were just 20 yards long after turnovers as Virginia turned a 21-point lead heading into the fourth quarter into a 32-point win past the favorite spread.
Iowa (-7½) 24, Purdue 10: The underdog spread for the Boilermakers fell from +12½ all the way down to just +7½ and with a first quarter interception return touchdown Purdue looked like the winning side. The Boilermakers actually took that lead to 10-0 in the second quarter but Iowa managed to tie the game before halftime. It took until the final minute of the third quarter for Iowa to score again, taking a 17-10 lead into the final frame and with dominant statistics in the game the Hawkeyes managed to earn the cover as well with a game sealing touchdown with about five minutes to go.
Toledo (-10) 42, Central Michigan 28: This key MAC West game wound up with a tight finish as a 34-14 lead for Toledo tuned into just a six-point lead halfway through the fourth quarter after Central Michigan completed an 85-yard drive. The spread on this game dropped from an opening spread of -14 down to just -10 by Saturday and that difference proved pivotal as Toledo scored a touchdown with three minutes to go in the game to seal the win. Up by 12, Toledo went for two and succeeded to win by 14. Central Michigan nearly spoiled the number again however as they took the ball down to the Toledo 10-yard line in the final minute before fumbling away the backdoor cover opportunity.
Kentucky (-17) 17, Vanderbilt 7: Seeking its first SEC win since 2011 Kentucky dominated the statistics in this game but failed to close the door on Vanderbilt in a game that featured no points in the second half. The only score for Vanderbilt came on an interception return touchdown and Kentucky came up empty despite four trips into Vanderbilt territory in the second half. The game ended on the Vanderbilt 18-yard line as Kentucky had no incentive to put in another touchdown that would have led to a push for most in a game where they haled Vanderbilt to only 139 yards.
Colorado State (+6½) 24, Boston College: This spread was a roller coaster all week, opening at -5 and climbing all the way up to -9½ before falling back below a touchdown by kickoff. Boston College led 21-14, right near the number entering the fourth quarter but Colorado State took over the fourth quarter for a minor upset with the key play being a fourth quarter interception deep in Colorado State territory with Boston College still leading the game.
Buffalo (-7) 35, Miami, OH 27: Miami, OH is riding a long losing streak but the Redhawks have been pretty competitive this season. Miami led at several points in this game including taking a 27-26 lead early in the fourth quarter. The Redhawks went for two after that score and failed, in what would prove to be a key play that would haunt the underdog backers by the game’s end. Buffalo scored a touchdown a few minutes later to go up by five, also missing on the two-point conversion and the Bulls added a field goal later in the final quarter to reach the final margin of eight points, just past the home favorite spread. Miami’s next drive would enter Buffalo territory but the Redhawks left with another tough defeat.
Texas State (+3) 37, Tulsa 34: This game featured misleading scoring and statistics going to three overtime as it was just 7-0 Texas State at halftime. The Bobcats led 17-3 entering the fourth quarter but Tulsa would send the game to overtime with two fourth quarter touchdowns, the second of which game with 10 seconds left in the game to complete a 17-play drive. The first two overtimes featured four touchdowns before Tulsa settled for a field goal going first in the third overtime. Texas State punched in the touchdown for the minor upset and that score also gave ‘over’ backers an amazingly fortunate win.
Bowling Green (-5½) 47, Massachusetts 42: This game featured a massive line shift from -10½ all the way down to -4½ early in the week before climbing a point to the closing number. Both teams posted over 600 yards in the game with some big momentum shifts. Massachusetts took advantage of a short field to take a 35-33 lead in the third quarter, a score that held until three minutes into the fourth. Bowling Green extended its lead to 47-35 with less than 10 minutes to go in the game but Massachusetts would score late to climb back to within five, and creating some mixed results at the window.
Missouri (+6½) 21, South Carolina 20: After a hard fought first half, South Carolina appeared to take command of the SEC East with a 20-7 lead halfway through the fourth quarter hosting Missouri. It took three plays for Missouri to go 68 yards to get back within the game however, down six but with limited time left. The Missouri defense stepped up to force a three-and-out and in dramatic fashion Missouri took the lead with just over a minute to go with a 4th down touchdown run. That came after converting another 4th down on the drive as well. South Carolina did not advance on its final possession as Missouri moved to 1-0 in SEC play with Georgia up next.
Miami, FL (-4) 22, Duke 10: This line bounced from -5 up to -7 and then back down to -4. For much of the game those differences looked like they would prove important. Miami led 9-7 at the half and 16-10 heading into the third quarter taking advantage of a fumble deep in Duke territory while scoring the touchdown on a 4th and 19 play in a huge blow for backers of the Blue Devils. In the fourth quarter Miami followed up another Duke interception with a 47-yard touchdown pass to go up by 12, missing on the two-point conversion. In the final five minutes of the game Duke had three possessions deep in Miami territory seeking a backdoor cover but they came up empty in what proved to be a terrible game for Duke quarterback Anthony Boone.
Ohio State (-17) 50, Cincinnati 28: Despite huge yardage numbers for Ohio State, Cincinnati hung in this matchup, actually closing to within five points in the third quarter. Ohio State pulled away with a 15-point lead entering the fourth and the Buckeyes added a touchdown in the fourth to seal the cover as the defense held firm in the final frame.
Mississippi (-20½) 24, Memphis 3: Mississippi had a sloppy performance with turnovers and missed scoring opportunities as the Memphis defense came up with several big plays. Mississippi led just 7-3 into the fourth quarter, seemingly leaving the three-touchdown underdog in a secure position. Similar to the opening game with Boise State, the Rebels put on a show late with three touchdowns, including a score from just 23 yards after a turnover. A facemask penalty on Memphis late in the game probably ruined the cover for the Tigers as Mississippi was moved to the Memphis 21-yard line and the Tigers oddly opted to pass for a touchdown that put the margin at 21 points with just over a minute to go, meaning a push for most on the game.
Florida Atlantic (+4) 41, Texas San Antonio 37: The Roadrunners led by four at halftime and entering the fourth quarter, dead even with the closing spread. With two field goals Texas San Antonio moved to a comfortable 10-point lead with fewer than eight minutes to go in the game. Incredibly a Florida Atlantic offense put together two scoring drives in the final minutes with mainly the passing attack, going 75-yards to close within three with four minutes to go and scoring the go-ahead touchdown after a 93-yard drive with just 20 seconds on the clock.
Washington State (+12) 28, Utah 27: Washington State trailed by 17 at the half and by 13 early in the fourth quarter but the Cougars can’t be slept on. Washington State closed to within six with eight minutes to go and then with five minutes to go Connor Haliday hit Vince Mayle for 81 yards to put the Cougars improbably in front. A shaky Washington State defense held twice for the upset win.
San Diego State (-18) 34, UNLV 17: The Aztecs led by 18 entering the fourth quarter, even with the closing spread and just past the common number of -17. In the fourth UNLV scored a touchdown while San Diego State settled for short field goals of 24 yards and 31 yards to give a narrow cover or a push to the underdog Rebels. The yardage was nearly even in the game so it was perhaps a just result.
Nevada (-7) 21, San Jose State 10: Those that did not stay up for this game could be misled by a very deceptive final score as San Jose State out-gained Nevada by 190 yards and led 10-7 into the fourth quarter. Nevada took the lead with a long touchdown drive early in the fourth and then also stole the road favorite cover with an interception return touchdown as the Wolf Pack had a 3-0 edge in turnovers. San Jose State was in Nevada territory throughout the fourth quarter but had a missed field goal and turnovers to show for it in a very tough defeat for the Spartans.