4th Quarter Covers - Week 5
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the first college football weekend in October.
Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.
Texas Tech (-27½) 55, Kansas: Those laying the heavy lumber with the Red Raiders weren’t in great shape with Kansas within nine points halfway through the third quarter and Texas Tech star quarterback Patrick Mahomes out of the game with a shoulder injury. Backup Nic Shimonek made the most of his opportunity as Texas Tech led by 22 by the end of the third quarter and didn’t stop producing in the final frame with two long touchdown passes to get past the four-touchdown spread.
Houston (-27½) 42, Connecticut 14: The spread on the heavy home favorite Houston opened at -28 before climbing but then eventually falling back to just below the four-touchdown barrier in this revenge game Thursday night. Neither team scored in the first quarter which seemed to be a great sign for the underdog but Houston scored four consecutive touchdowns in the second quarter before the Huskies halted the bleeding with a 62-yard touchdown with 30 seconds before halftime. Houston was ahead of the spread by the start of the fourth quarter with a 42-7 advantage but Connecticut would score last with a fourth quarter touchdown putting the final margin right at 28, as well as sealing the ‘over’ with Houston playing back-ups in the fourth quarter.
BYU (-3) 55, Toledo 53: Both squads eclipsed the total individually in this somewhat unexpected shootout Friday night. After a 35 points combined in the first quarter the pace slowed down in the second quarter with a 21-21 tie at the half before the teams alternated eight scoring plays in a row in the second half to reach a 45-45 tie with about five minutes to go in the game. A Toledo interception gave BYU the momentum and they took advantage to go up by seven but Toledo answered with a long touchdown drive that included a 4th-and-4 conversion. With just over a minute to go in the game the Rockets went for two and got it, taking a 53-52 lead, a move that BYU unsuccessfully attempted at Utah a few weeks ago. Only 71 seconds remained but BYU moved down the field with relative ease to get the game-winning 19-yard field goal as time expired, though Toledo’s big late gamble on the two-point conversion did enough to pay off with an underdog cover.
Boston College (-18½) 35, Buffalo 3: Boston College had a dominant performance holding Buffalo to just 67 yards but a third quarter field goal allowed on a drive that produced no net yards looked like it might hold for the Bulls as the Eagles led just 21-3 into the fourth quarter, short of the closing number on a spread that reached as high as -19½. It wouldn’t matter as the Eagles added two fourth quarter touchdowns including a score with just 14 seconds to go to pull away for a final score that was more in line with the dominant statistics.
Pittsburgh (-17) 43, Marshall 27: The Panthers led 27-0 at the half but Marshall scored twice in the second quarter and it was just a 16-point margin heading into the final frame after Pittsburgh settled for a short field goal late in the third quarter. Marshall rallied in the fourth closing to within three points with four minutes to go. The Panthers answered to lock up the win with a 10-point lead and just a minute remaining. With a spread that was at -16 much of the week and even at just -15 at times Pittsburgh backers seemed to get the miracle play they needed with an interception returned for a touchdown on the final play of the game. The Panthers wound up not kicking the extra point however and those with -16 were left with a frustrating push and those that laid -17 certainly were dealt a tough break.
Mississippi (-16) 48, Memphis 28: This rivalry game briefly got tight in the third quarter as a 17-point halftime lead shrunk to just six points late in the third quarter after Memphis completed a 13-play 99-yard drive. Mississippi took less than two minutes to push the margin back to double-digits and early in the fourth quarter the margin was up to 20 points. The teams traded interceptions in the middle of the final frame and Memphis would get a touchdown to get back within the number in the middle of the quarter but Ole Miss didn’t have a problem answering, converting a 3rd-and-long play with a 32-yard touchdown run. That 20-point margin would hold for the Rebels.
Penn State (-3½) 29, Minnesota 26: -2½ and -3 were available at some points during the week in this Big Ten clash and Minnesota took a 13-3 lead at the half as the underdog. The game turned on an 80-yard pass play for Penn State as the Lions scored 17 points in the third quarter to take a 7-point advantage into the final frame. The Gophers tied the game early in the fourth quarter but had a costly interception in the end zone with a chance to take the lead. The Gophers held on defense to get the ball back and turned in an 11-play drive to burn nearly five minutes of game clock, eventually going up by three with less than a minute to go. Penn State was able to tie the game on a 40-yard kick with two second left on the clock as the Minnesota defense couldn’t close out the game. The Gophers went first in overtime and took a costly sack, needing to eventually settle for a field goal. A deflated defense then allowed a touchdown on the first play of Penn State’s possession as the Lions got the win but not the cover for most.
Middle Tennessee State (-17) 30, North Texas 13: Middle Tennessee State led by just six at the half but managed to tack on the next 10 points as well to lead 23-7 early in the fourth quarter, past the early week spread but short of the late week spread that hit 17. North Texas seemed to make it a moot point as they found the end zone with less than two minutes to go in the game. The Mean Green went for two however and failed to leave the margin at 10 points. On the next play from scrimmage Middle Tennessee State broke a 46-yard touchdown run after recovering the on-side kick attempt and the final margin wound up right at 17 after North Texas failed on two plays from the Middle Tennessee State 7-yard line at the end of the game.
Louisiana Tech (-22½) 28, UTEP 7: The line on this game initially fell from -20 to as low as -18 before a Saturday rally all the way to -22½. The final score wound up in the middle though the statistics painted a rather even matchup with UTEP actually producing more yards. The favorite cover looked impossible as UTEP scored an early fourth quarter touchdown to close within seven points but Louisiana Tech quickly answered with a 70-yard touchdown run and then added another seven points in the final two minutes. It looked like the late bailout for the early backers of Louisiana Tech would be for naught however as UTEP’s final drive wound up with a 1st-and-goal from the 1-yard line but a fumble allowed the Bulldogs to hold the 21-point margin.
Ohio (-2) 17, Miami, OH 7: For parts the week this road favorite spread hit -3 and that was the advantage most of the fourth quarter for the Bobcats. Looking to put together a final drive Miami was sacked with the fumble recovered in the end zone to give Ohio a 17-7 edge. Miami did threaten to get back to a three-point deficit as they reached the Ohio 32-yard line before failing on a 4th down attempt.
Clemson (PK) 42, Louisville 36: The game of the day lived up to the billing Saturday night, though at halftime Clemson appeared to be in control at 28-10 after going 73 yards in 32 seconds right before the half. Louisville would take over in the second half, accounting for five consecutive scores to pull ahead 36-28 with just under eight minutes to go in the game. A 77-yard kickoff return provided the spark to get Clemson back on track and two plays later the Tigers were within two, failing going for two after the touchdown. The defense held for a rare Louisville 3-and-out and Clemson took the lead with a couple of big plays on an 85-yard drive to go up by six, following a successful two-point conversion. With a spread that bounced around throughout the week Louisville had an opportunity to change the outcome for many, eventually getting a new set of downs from the 12-yard line. The game would come down to a 4th-and-7 play be a false start made it 4th-and-12 with less than a minute to go. Lamar Jackson checked down to James Quick underneath and he wound up a yard short down the sideline as Clemson held on to take control of the ACC.
Tennessee (-3½) 34, Georgia 31: Highly ranked Tennessee was a suspiciously small road favorite playing against a Georgia team that had been blown out the previous week. Georgia came to play this week with a 17-0 lead late in the second quarter after fortuitously recovering its own fumble in the end zone. Tennessee would score just before the half and climbed within three in the third quarter and again early in the fourth quarter. An excellent punt pinned Georgia deep with fewer than four minutes to go in the game and disaster struck the Bulldogs as Jacob Eason was sacked with Tennessee recovering the fumble for a go-ahead touchdown, that with the extra-point put the Volunteers up by four and just past the spread. The next Georgia possession featured a quick interception but the defense held and with just over a minute to go Georgia still had an opportunity. The Bulldogs had fewer than 20 seconds on the clock and incredibly connected for a 47-yard touchdown pass to take a three-point lead. Amidst the excitement Georgia got a celebration penalty and then mangled the kickoff with a short kick, allowing a solid return and tacking on five additional yards for being off-sides. Joshua Dobbs had one play and it may wind up the play of the season as Jauan Jennings hauled the Hail Mary down in heavy traffic to give Tennessee the win. With the celebration the Volunteers didn’t bother kicking the extra-point, an obviously critical extra-point for most involved on the game.
California (+1½) 28, Utah 23: This near-even lined Pac-12 contest came down to the wire as Utah cut into a 28-17 deficit with a touchdown with fewer than seven minutes to go in the game. Down five the Utes went for two and failed in a play that was significant. California isn’t known for defense but the Bears wound up holding on seven consecutive Utah plays from inside Cal’s 10-yard line as a pass interference penalty on 4th-and-goal allowed the Utes to get in three more tries before time ran out.
NC State (-14) 33, Wake Forest 16: NC State was in control of this ACC game but a touchdown from the Demon Deacons made it just a 10-point margin heading into the fourth quarter. Not until the clock went past six minutes did NC State score again, completing a 66-yard drive to create the 17-point final margin.
Indiana (+5) 24, Michigan State 21: The Spartans led 14-0 late in the third quarter but Indiana had a great run to take over the game, eventually going up 21-14 with less than five minutes to go. Despite the offense struggling Michigan State posted a great final drive to force overtime, connecting on a 4th-and-2 with 11 seconds in regulation. The Spartans didn’t go for the win and going first in overtime Michigan State went backwards and wound up missing a 49-yard field goal. Indiana’s subsequent field goal attempt missed but a leaping penalty on the Spartans gave Indiana another shot and redemption was in order for the Hoosiers in a huge win for the program.
Oklahoma (-3½) 52, TCU 46: The Sooners scored four straight touchdowns in the second quarter and led by 11 at the half. That lead was extended in the third quarter with a 49-24 advantage as the rout appeared on. TCU would force three consecutive punts and wound up with three straight touchdowns to climb within three points with about five minutes to play. The Sooners were able to add a field goal but TCU had a final opportunity with plenty of time on the clock. The Frogs were their own worst enemy on that effort however with a pair of penalties and two sacks to make for an impossible yardage situation. The final two minutes included a questionable and controversial intentional grounding call with the flag picked up and then eventually added back to help the Sooners to hold on.
New Mexico (-10½) 48, San Jose State 41: The line on this game opened as low as -4½ before skyrocketing all week to eventually hit double-digits. It seemed to matter not as a defensive touchdown made it a 21-point margin for the Lobos heading into the fourth quarter. The Spartans kept fighting however and had two quick scoring drives to climb within seven early in the fourth quarter. The Lobos halted the momentum and went back up by 14 with just three minutes left in the game but the defense couldn’t get the stop to save the favorite cover for the late week chasers as San Jose State scored in the final minute to create a seven-point final margin.