4th Quarter Covers - Week 6
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the sixth college football weekend as October started with 11 Top 25 teams losing. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.
UCF (+2½) 17, Houston 12: The Knights led 17-6 entering the fourth quarter in this Thursday night AAC clash, but things got very interesting in the fourth quarter. Houston added two field goals in the fourth quarter to get within five points and in the final minutes the Cougars drove deep into Central Florida territory, sitting with first and goal from the 10 yard line. A holding penalty pushed Houston back 10 yards, but on the next play back-up quarterback Greg Ward scrambled 19 yards diving into the end zone. The ball came out just before he reached the goal line and went out of bounds for a touchback to seal the minor upset for UCF. Had Houston scored the touchdown, they would have gone for two in what would have been the spread result deciding play.
Florida State (-37½) 43, Wake Forest 3: The top-ranked Seminoles were yet to win ATS in a 4-0 start and with just a 13-3 lead at the half in this game, covering the over five-touchdown spread seemed unlikely. Florida State added 17 points in the third quarter and then led 40-3 after a 59-yard touchdown pass from Jameis Winston who was still in the game with nine minutes to go. With less than five minutes to go, Florida State would add a short field goal to slip by the massive spread as Wake Forest did not have a drive longer than 29 yards in the game.
Virginia (-5½) 24, Pittsburgh 19: The Cavaliers dominated the first half of this game going up 24-3 after a defensive touchdown. Pittsburgh chipped away with 10 points in the third quarter, sitting down by 11. Virginia forced Pittsburgh to punt with about five minutes to go after a sack put the Panthers in a 4th-and-long, but they were able to pin Virginia deep. Virginia picked up one first down but Pittsburgh used its timeouts and forced Virginia to punt with about two minutes left in the game. The punt return proved to be one of Pittsburgh’s best plays of the game as Tyler Boyd returned the kick 45 yards, basically right back to the line of scrimmage. Three plays later, Pittsburgh was in the end zone for a spread spoiling touchdown. The line on this game fluctuated from an opening line of -5, down to -4½ then up to -6½ before falling back down to -5 late in the week before a late rise to -5½. The two-point conversion attempt would prove very important to those involved at any price and the Panthers missed the attempt and failed to get the on-side kick to leave the final margin at five and leaving most with a push.
West Virginia (-27½) 33, Kansas 14: The price on the Mountaineers climbed sharply with Kansas firing Charlie Weis last week, but it looked like West Virginia would run away with this game up 26-0 at the half. The only scoring for the Mountaineers after halftime came on a 94-yard kickoff return and with West Virginia leading by 26, past the early week spread, Kansas scored with just over two minutes left in the game on a 76-yard punt return to seal the underdog cover despite a 381 yard edge for the host.
Kentucky (+4½) 45, South Carolina 38: The spread on the road favorite was cut in half from an opening number of -7 before jumping a point Saturday to -4½. It looked like the Gamecocks were pulling away, leading by seven after 91-yard drive late in the third quarter and leading 38-24 early in the fourth. After a strong kick return, Kentucky found the end zone to get back within seven and just a few minutes later, the game was tied with the Wildcats going 75 yards on seven consecutive rushes on its next possession. South Carolina had nearly three minutes to work with to win the game, but Dylan Thompson was intercepted for a short return touchdown to put the Wildcats in line for the upset. The next South Carolina drive also ended in an interception and Kentucky was able to run out the clock for a huge win for the growing program.
Bowling Green (-3) 36, Buffalo 35: The Bulls squandered an early lead in this game as Bowling Green led 30-28 entering the fourth quarter. Buffalo took the lead back halfway through the final frame, but Bowling Green answered with a four-play drive for 80 yards to lead 36-35. Up by one, Bowling Green went for two and failed, ruining a chance for a fortunate push for those on the home favorite at the late week price. With the help of a penalty, Bowling Green was inside the Buffalo 20 in the final seconds, but Buffalo had exhausted its timeouts and there was no need for the spread saving score.
Akron (-26) 31, Eastern Michigan 6: After the big win on Pittsburgh, the spread for the Zips climbed all week from as low as -21. The difference proved critical in this game as Akron scored five seconds into the fourth quarter to lead by 25. Just a few plays later, it seemed that the Zips were lined up for another score to get past the closing spread after recovering a fumble in Eastern Michigan territory. Eventually with a 4th-and-6 from the Eastern Michigan 7-yard line, the Zips went for it rather than kicking and came up just short. The Eagles nearly made it a clear underdog cover as they drove 84 yards before another fumble and once again Akron would go for it on 4th-and-goal, coming up short again as the Zips avoided the kicking game to cost chalk bettors.
Rice (-6) 28, Hawaii 14: Rice trailed 14-7 in the second half in this game and the game was tied until Rice scored with just over four minutes to go in the game, going up by seven just by the favorite spread. Hawaii would cross midfield, but the Warriors could not answer and in the final seconds the Owls added a 31-yard touchdown pass on 4th-and-long to seal the game.
Colorado State (-18) 42, Tulsa 17: The Rams were in control the entire way in this game, including leading 28-0 at one point, but early in the fourth quarter, a 62-yard Tulsa touchdown put the Hurricane right on the spread, trailing 35-17. Colorado State would get its own big pass play behind back-up quarterback Nick Stevens with about five minutes to go and in the final minute, a Tulsa drive to the Colorado State 21-yard line was not enough.
Notre Dame (+2½) 17, Stanford 14: This game was tied 7-7 entering the fourth quarter, but Stanford appeared to take control with a touchdown to go up 14-10 with just three minutes left. The Irish needed a touchdown and faced with a 4th-and-11 play, Everett Golson hit a wide open Ben Koyack for a 23-yard touchdown for the win.
Florida (PK) 10, Tennessee 9: The Volunteers have lost a number of close games in SEC play the last two years, but this week it looked like Tennessee was in control with a shutout through three quarters, but up just 9-0 settling for field goals. Behind back-up quarterback Treon Harris, the Gators finally took advantage to good field position with the first touchdown of the game early in the fourth quarter and then with about six minutes to go, kicker Austin Hardin connected from 49 yards. On its final drive, Tennessee got past midfield but an interception ended the threat to leave the Volunteers with another narrow defeat.
Baylor (-14½) 28, Texas 7: The Bears did not put up their customary passing numbers as Bryce Petty did not have a great game, but Baylor was in control with its defense, scoring on a blocked field goal return for the only score of the first half and adding an offensive score in the third quarter to lead by 14. Baylor doubled that margin with two fourth quarter touchdowns as a late Texas score was not enough for the Longhorns, who played commendably on defense but could not overcome three turnovers.
Oklahoma State (-17) 37, Iowa State 20: Oklahoma State settled for field goals in the first half to keep Iowa State in this game, but the second half opened with a 97-yard kickoff return touchdown and just seconds into the fourth quarter, Oklahoma State was up by 24 despite relatively even yardage in the game. With less than a minute to go, Iowa State completed a scoring drive to leave the final margin right on the common number.
Mississippi (+5½) 23, Alabama 17: Alabama led 17-10 entering the fourth quarter, but a key a play came from Ole Miss punter Will Gleeson, who pinned the Tide at the one-yard line with eight minutes to go. The Tide were stopped and forced to punt, handing the Rebels the ball just past midfield. Mississippi needed just three plays to connect for a big pass play to tie the game. On the kickoff, Alabama fumbled as the momentum had turned and Mississippi came through with the go-ahead score with less than three minutes to go. The jubilation in Oxford was muted with a blocked extra point as Alabama was handed the ball down just six. An illegal block on the return put the Tide back with a long field, however, with another mistake on special teams. Alabama connected for a few nice gains and wound up to the Mississippi 22-yard line before another penalty pushed Alabama backwards. On 2nd-and-long, Blake Sims appeared to deliver a touchdown strike, but it was Mississippi defender Senquez Golson coming down with the ball, ruled an interception after review and sealing a huge win for the Rebels.
Middle Tennessee State (-17½) 37, Southern Miss 31: Middle Tennessee State went up by 19 twice in the fourth quarter, but Southern Miss kept playing, eventually posting pretty impressive passing totals as the Golden Eagles scored twice in the second half of the fourth quarter to make the final score look closer than this game was.
Oregon State (-4½) 36, Colorado 31: Oregon State led by just two entering the fourth quarter, but they quickly pushed that margin to nine points in the final frame. Most of the week, the Beavers were favored by 6-7 points so most on the Buffaloes would wind up still winning despite the late line move. It did not look promising when Oregon State went up by 12 with about five minutes to go, however. The Beavers went for two after the touchdown, a key play for many scenarios but the attempt failed, allowing Colorado to get within five on its answering touchdown with three minutes to go. Colorado would get the ball back in good field position in the final two minutes for a legitimate shot at the upset but they failed to pick up a first down.
California (+4) 60, Washington State 59: With a total of 70, high scoring was certainly expected in this Pac-12 clash, but this game took that to a whole another level in the second half. The Bears and Cougars traded touchdowns for a whopping 56 points in the third quarter alone, leaving the home favorite up by 11 entering the fourth quarter, but with no lead safe. California took a 54-52 lead about halfway through the final frame with a blocked extra point looking potentially meaningful in the spread picture as a Washington State touchdown would put them up five. That is exactly what happened with about four minutes to go in the game, but only took California 61 seconds to get the lead back. California went for two and failed setting Washington State up for the win as they settled in for a 19-yard field goal attempt, kicking on third down despite still having 19 seconds on the clock. The kick was wide right, leaving Connor Halliday’s new single-game passing record in a losing effort.
Rutgers (-3) 26, Michigan 20: Rutgers led by two entering the fourth quarter, but the Knights pulled ahead of the spread that fluctuated between -2 and -3 much of the week with a touchdown early in the fourth to go up by nine. Michigan would answer to get back within two and the Wolverines had the ball back in the closing minutes. Michigan would attempt a 56-yard field goal with about three minutes to go, but Rutgers blocked it and then picked up a first down to be able to run out the clock in Michigan territory.
Michigan State (-7) 27, Nebraska 22: Michigan State completely dominated this game for three quarters, leading by 24 heading into the final frame. A strong punt return put Nebraska in good field position, but on first down, quarterback Tommy Armstrong was injured on a scramble. A personal foul penalty helped the cause and Nebraska was able to find the end zone, but the Huskers failed going for two, still trailing by 18. On Nebraska’s next possession, they could not quite get into field goal range and had to go for it on fourth down, coming up short with Armstrong back in the game. Michigan State was able to burn some clock, but did not add points and Nebraska again put together a scoring drive with two penalties being big plays. Michigan State still led by 11 with less than four minutes to go and Nebraska out of timeouts when they punted the ball back to the Huskers. De’Mornay Pierson-El returned the kick 62 yards for a touchdown to get within five and putting the underdog in position for an improbable cover. Michigan State appeared poised to pull just past the spread, but a short field goal was missed with a minute to go although the Spartans defense was able to hold with an interception as Nebraska threatened on the final drive.