4th Quarter Covers - Week 6
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the sixth college football weekend in early October. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.
Arkansas State (+6) 27, Georgia Southern 26: Winless Arkansas State wound up with a 5-0 turnover deficit in this game to fall behind 23-10 late in the third quarter. Into the fourth quarter, the Red Wolves still trailed by nine as a home underdog but a field goal put the margin right on the closing number of 6, though most of the week Georgia Southern was a bigger favorite. Arkansas State converted a 4th-and-16 with less than two minutes to go and would wind up in the end zone with just nine seconds left to tie the game, with the point after successful to deliver a one-point win for the Red Wolves as a home underdog. Arkansas State had a 525-365 yardage edge and managed to overcome three lost fumbles and two interceptions.
Memphis (-10) 34, Temple 27: The underdog Owls had a 13-0 lead in this game Thursday night, but Memphis managed a short field goal to get on the board just before halftime. Memphis took control in the second half with four straight scores including a defensive touchdown as in just 12 minutes of game clock the game swung to a 27-13 edge for the host. Temple hit a big play to answer and get back within seven points, but the ensuing kickoff was returned for a touchdown as Memphis still led by 14 with about six minutes to go. Temple’s offense kept the pressure on producing a scoring drive to get back within seven and the game ended with the Owls throwing an interception in Memphis territory. It was enough for Temple to hold the cover and deservedly so with a 531-323 yardage advantage for the underdog.
Louisiana Tech (+3) 55, Western Kentucky 52: The Bulldogs had a 21-point lead heading into the fourth quarter, but Western Kentucky made a late push, blocking a punt and returning it for a touchdown with about five minutes to go in the game to close within three points. Just a few minutes later, the Bulldogs had to line up to punt again and Western Kentucky had over two minutes of clock with a touchdown being enough to change the spread result. On the first play from scrimmage, Western Kentucky took a sack and the ball came loose as Louisiana Tech was able to hold on ironically with a big play from its defense in a game that featured 107 points.
Old Dominion (-12½) 36, Massachusetts 16: This game was moved to Friday night with Hurricane Matthew approaching and the line jumped from -7 up to as high as -12½. Old Dominion led by 10 at the half and pulled just past the closing number with a 29-16 edge heading into the third quarter. The Monarchs added another touchdown to lead by 20 before a pair of interceptions for the Minutemen including one inside the Old Dominion 10-yard line as Massachusetts threatened late in the game.
Pittsburgh (-6) 37, Georgia Tech 34: Pittsburgh saw a 21-10 lead disappear, but early in the fourth quarter the Panthers went up 27-20, momentarily slipping past the favorite spread. The lead didn’t last long and with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, Georgia Tech took a 34-27 lead. A 74-yard pass play tied the game for the Panthers and with the game tied Georgia Tech made a bold decision to go for it on 4th-and-short from their own 34-yard line. They didn’t get it and Pittsburgh was able to run the clock down and strike the game winning field goal as time expired, although it wasn’t enough to cover the favorite spread.
Duke (-5) 13, Army 6: While Army likely wasn’t going to throw the ball around very much anyway, challenging rain and wind conditions kept both teams grounded Saturday with neither squad eclipsing 50 passing yards. Duke held a 13-0 lead early, but Army scored a touchdown just before halftime. Due to the conditions, the Knights went for two in a play that eventually loomed large on the spread result, with a failed conversion. There wound up being no points scored in the second half, but Army did threaten with two drives into Duke’s territory in the fourth quarter including reaching the 31-yard line before losing a fumble on first down.
NC State (-2½) 10, Notre Dame 3: With conditions well past suitable for football, Notre Dame and NC State slogged through three quarters with just a pair of field goals, leaving the spread outcome still in doubt with a near-even line all week though NC State went from being the underdog to the favorite. Early in the fourth quarter, the Wolfpack got the big play it needed on special teams with a blocked punt and a return 16 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. The Irish mounted a great final drive that included a fourth down conversion, but they eventually were stopped on a 4th-and-8 from the 16-yard line with fewer than two minutes left on the clock.
Ohio (-12) 30, Bowling Green 24: Ohio led 30-10 late in the third quarter, but Bowling Green scored with just over a minute to go in the third quarter to close to within 13 points. A 90-yard drive for the Falcons wound up with no points as Ohio still sat past the number, but after the Bobcats missed a field goal, Bowling Green went 79 yards to score the backdoor cover clincher with just over a minute to go in the game.
South Florida (-14) 38, East Carolina 22: The Bulls led 24-6 well into third quarter, but East Carolina made a great run, lining up for a two-point conversion to tie the game with less than seven minutes to go. That try failed and South Florida was in the end zone a minute later with a 62-yard strike. East Carolina had its only turnover of the game a few plays later and South Florida turned the short field into another touchdown for a 16-point final advantage, just past the closing number.
Oklahoma (-11½) 45, Texas 40: After a back-and-forth first half, Oklahoma appeared to pull away with a 42-27 advantage early in the fourth quarter. Texas answered with a touchdown to close to within eight points, but Oklahoma responded with a 15-play drive that ate nearly eight minutes of game clock. The net result was just a field goal as the underdog cover remained safe and Texas added a late touchdown to make the final margin even closer as well. The Longhorns did get a desperation shot in the finals seconds, but they had already done enough to earn the cover.
Kansas State (-10) 44, Texas Tech 38: Patrick Mahomes was a bit of a surprise start for Texas Tech and the Red Raiders were knotted up with Kansas State 31-31 heading into the fourth quarter. The Wildcats took control of the final frame with an early touchdown and then settling for two late field goals as they led 44-31 with less than two minutes to go. Texas Tech would get back within the number with a meaningless score as far as the outcome was concerned, finding the end zone with five seconds left on the clock to lose by six, and enough for underdog backers to cash.
Florida State (+1½) 20, Miami, FL 19: Miami seemed to be in control with an early 13-0 edge in this rivalry matchup, but by the end of the third quarter, Florida State had a 17-13 edge. A 13-play drive ended in a short field goal for the Seminoles early in the fourth quarter for a 20-13 advantage, but it appeared overtime would be necessary as a great late punt return put Miami in business at the 16-yard line late in the game. It took four downs, but with under two minutes to go, the Hurricanes scored on a 4th-and-5 play. The extra-point was blocked as the Seminoles carried a one-point edge and with a first down on offense Florida State wound up spoiling Miami’s perfect start.
Nevada (-7) 27, Fresno State 22: Fresno State fought back from a 21-6 deficit at the half to sit within five early in the fourth quarter. Nevada turned in a 14-play touchdown drive to burn significant clock but up 11 they went for two and failed. Fresno State quickly answered and also failed on a two-point conversion as five was the margin with five minutes to go. With the underdog cover in hand, Fresno State was in position to win outright as they hit 1st-and-goal from the 4-yard line in the final three minutes but failed on four straight plays.
Texas A&M (-7½) 45, Tennessee 38: The Aggies were quickly bet up from -5 to -7 when this line was released with -7 being the common number despite the hook on the closing figure. That didn’t seem to matter as Texas A&M took a 28-7 lead in the second half but as they have done all season, Tennessee made a late rally. Scoring three fourth quarter touchdowns on drives of only 18. 27, and 14 yards the Volunteers forced overtime in the final minute of the fourth quarter. A second session was required and the Aggies went first and got seven and then picked off Joshua Dobbs to end the game to give most a push on the spread.
USC (-5) 21, Colorado 17: USC led 14-0 at the half in this Pac-12 South clash, but Colorado closed within seven early in the third quarter. Colorado would tie the game early in the fourth quarter, but USC quickly answered to go up by seven and back past the home favorite spread. Colorado scored a field goal with about five minutes to go in the game to cut the margin to four points and that would hold as enough for the underdog cover despite a massive edge in yards for the Trojans as USC was able to run out the clock and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster intentionally went down on a big gain to burn more time of the clock rather than trying to score on the final possession for USC.
Alabama (-14½) 49, Arkansas 30: The Tide took control of this game early and led 35-10 until Arkansas squeaked in a touchdown before halftime. The margin was only 16 heading into the fourth quarter and the Razorbacks were threatening, but a long Arkansas drive wound up with points the other direction with an interception return touchdown to put Alabama up by 25. Arkansas scored with just over three minutes to go to make it 19-point game with a missed conversion and Aransas did end up with the ball and couple of decent gains before time ran out.
San Diego State (-16½) 26, UNLV 7: UNLV’s only score came on defense, but it was enough to hang within the number through three quarters with the Aztecs up 20-7. Early in the fourth, San Diego State added another touchdown to lead by 19, failing going for two to leave the window open for even a field goal to get some Rebels backers a win. UNLV did cross midfield to the 39-yard line on a late drive, but eventually went backwards and failed needing to go for it on 4th-and-14.
Colorado State (+6) 31, Utah State 24: The Aggies led 24-10 at the half past the road favorite spread and still held a 24-17 lead late in the third quarter. A lousy punt put the Rams in good field position and 46 yards later with a couple of big third down conversions the game was tied heading into the fourth quarter. With the momentum, Colorado State turned in a few big plays for a 90-yard scoring drive early in the final frame and two late Utah State drives ended without points with a failed fourth down try and an interception as the Rams scored an outright home underdog win in comeback fashion.
Georgia (-8½) 28, South Carolina 14: Georgia led 14-0 at the half, but South Carolina closed to within seven points by the end of the third quarter. Georgia had the lead back to 14 points with a short-field score early in the final frame, but with less than two minutes to go the Gamecocks completed a 12-play drive to sit down seven. An on-side kick was attempted and caught and returned 43 yards for a Georgia touchdown as the Bulldogs snuck away with the cover despite posting only 29 passing yards in Sunday’s postponed SEC game.