4th Quarter Covers - Week 6
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the sixth big college football weekend to open the month of October. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.
Iowa (-16) 45, Illinois 16: Iowa trailed until finding the end zone with seconds left before halftime and then well into the third quarter an 89-yard interception return put the Hawkeyes ahead 24-13. Illinois responded with a field goal to sit halfway to the closing spread heading into the fourth quarter down 24-16, though early in the week +18 was available on the Illini. Iowa took over in the final frame eventually netting three touchdowns to pull away for a misleading 45-16 final in a game where Illinois actually had a slight yardage edge but also turned it over four times.
Western Michigan (-7) 71, Buffalo 68: Games like this are why are the college overtime system is rightfully criticized as Buffalo and Western Michigan went through seven extra sessions to decide this MAC contest. Buffalo had an early 14-10 edge as a home underdog but Western Michigan led by 10 heading into the fourth quarter. The Bulls managed to score twice in the first several minutes of the fourth quarter to lead by four before Western Michigan answered with less than five minutes remaining. In the final minute Buffalo tied the game settling for a 34-yard field goal. Western Michigan was able to get a 52-yard field goal attempt off as time expired but the kick was blocked and overtime was needed.
There was drama in the first session as Buffalo kicked a short field goal but with a personal foul penalty on Western Michigan the Bulls took the points off the board and got seven on the next play. Touchdowns followed the next three possessions before Buffalo fumbled on the 2-yard-line starting session three. In position to win but not cover Western Michigan missed a 29-yard field goal. The spread result was still in play with the requirement to go for two after every score starting in the third overtime. In session four both teams got 8 points, in session five both teams ended up with 6. Exhausted defenses offered little resistance with quick scores in session six but neither team could hit the conversion. Opening session seven Buffalo had to settle for a field goal, certainly welcome result for those on the Bulls plus the points and in four plays Western Michigan rushed into the end zone to end the game with an outrageous 71-68 final score with 63 first downs and over 1,300 total yards to skew the statistics for both teams the rest of the season.
Syracuse (-3½) 27, Pittsburgh 24: Syracuse pulled away in the third quarter with a 20-13 edge heading into the final frame and they still sat past the slight favorite spread after the Panthers connected for a 56-yard field goal. Syracuse hit a big play to go up by 11 with 11 minutes to go but Pittsburgh responded with a touchdown and a key two-point conversion to make it just a three-point margin. The Orange eventually reached the Pittsburgh 5-yard-line in the final minute of the game but opted to go for it on 4th-and-short rather than kicking a spread-saving field goal. Pittsburgh didn’t advance much getting the ball with less than a minute remaining and 95-yards to go but the narrow underdog cover was earned with that fourth quarter two-point conversion.
Appalachian State (-13½) 45, New Mexico State 31: These Sun Belt foes were knotted at 17-17 through three quarters before a wild final frame. The two-touchdown underdog took a seven-point lead early in the fourth and after an exchange of touchdowns in just over a minute of game clock there was still a seven-point edge for the Aggies with just over nine minutes remaining. Turnovers keyed back-to-back short field touchdown drives for Appalachian State, taking a 38-31 lead with just over five minutes to go. New Mexico State reached the Appalachian State 26-yard line on its next drive but went for it on fourth down and came up short. Mostly trying to run out the clock the Mountaineers broke a 56-yard run for a touchdown to slip by the closing spread and created the sixth New Mexico State turnover of the game with an interception across midfield in the final two minutes.
Clemson (-21) 28, Wake Forest 14: Clemson was a bit sluggish after taking a 14-0 lead early in the game. The Tigers lost Kelly Bryant to an ankle injury but still eventually pulled ahead 28-0 early in the fourth quarter. With the game in hand the excellent Clemson defense relaxed a bit and Wake Forest produced two touchdown drives in the final nine minutes to steal the underdog cover.
Purdue (-3½) 31, Minnesota 17: The Boilermakers kicked a short field goal with about 10 minutes remaining to lead 16-14 before a weather delay of more than an hour. Minnesota put together a 17-play drive that included two fourth down conversions but ultimately settled for a field goal to lead 17-16 as a slight underdog with just over two minutes remaining. With the help of a great kickoff return Purdue only needed four plays to go back in front, getting a touchdown and a two-point conversion to lead by seven. Minnesota threatened to force overtime reaching the Purdue 27-yard line in the final minute but an interception was returned 76 yards to seal the Purdue victory and cover.
Navy (-10) 48, Air Force 45: Navy led 38-24 through three quarters but Air Force turned in an 89-yard touchdown drive to get back within seven and then held Navy to a field goal. Air Force delivered another quick touchdown drive to trail by just three with about four minutes remaining and then forced a 3-and-out. Air Force delivered a rare pass strike for a 51-yard touchdown and the lead with fewer than two minutes on the clock. Navy turned in a big 4th down conversion in its own territory and eventually completed a 75-yard touchdown drive with 15 seconds left on the clock to get the win though the underdog Falcons held the cover.
Northern Illinois (-23½) 24, Kent State 3: Five straight punts followed a Huskies field goal late in the third quarter with Northern Illinois just short of the favorite spread. With about nine minutes to go Marcus Childers was intercepted in the end zone to take away a scoring threat as well. The Flashes didn’t advance significantly and later in the fourth quarter failed going for it on downs just past midfield. With great field position the Huskies promptly fumbled and when they got the ball back they were able to run out the clock, ending the game at the Kent State 40-yard-line.
LSU (-2) 17, Florida 16: The line on this SEC crossover clash was a roller coaster all week and the timing wound up being critical. Florida opened at -6 of -6½ at many outlets before a steep fall to -2 by Friday night. Saturday morning the game opened back up at most spots with LSU -2 with that line fluctuating down to -1 at times. Off an embarrassing loss LSU took the early lead and led 17-3 early in the third quarter. The Gators climbed back into the game with back-to-back touchdown drives late in the third quarter but Eddy Pineiro missed the extra-point on the second score to leave LSU in front 17-16. Five straight punts filled the fourth quarter before Florida had to go for it on 4th down from its own 25-yard-line with a pass falling incomplete for a Tigers win but an inconclusive spread result.
Auburn (-21) 44, Mississippi 23: The Tigers were in command with a 35-3 halftime edge and the lead was still 31 points heading into the fourth quarter. The Rebels wound up with 429 yards and kept at it with an early fourth quarter touchdown. Down by 27 Mississippi scored a touchdown with about three minutes remaining to trail by 21 and opted to go for two, in a critical play for anyone involved on the pointspread that opened and closed right at -21 but reached -22½ during the week. Auburn’s defense held on the conversion as did the 21-point final margin for a closing line push.
Miami, FL (-2½) 24, Florida State 20: Offense was tough to come by in a big ACC clash as Florida State led 3-0 at halftime. Miami took advantage of a turnover for a short field touchdown and took a 10-3 edge into the fourth quarter despite a solid production deficit. The Seminoles delivered their first touchdown of the game early in the fourth quarter and took the lead with a field goal with about seven minutes remaining. Miami answered with a 75-yard touchdown drive to lead by four, just past the slight road favorite spread.
James Blackman didn’t look like a freshman in leading a great late drive to put Florida State ahead with just over a minute remaining. Miami had the answer however eventually connecting for a 23-yard pass that was narrowly run into the end zone (surviving a lengthy replay review) with only six seconds remaining for the win, with the extra-point also sealing a narrow cover as well on a line that was -3 much of the week.
Virginia Tech (-14½) 23, Boston College 10: The numbers weren’t dramatically far apart in this game but the Hokies pulled away in the second quarter to lead by 14 at the half. Virginia Tech only managed three points each in the third and fourth quarters however. Boston College connected for a big play for a touchdown with just over five minutes remaining to get just inside the underdog spread.
Houston (-10) 35, SMU 22: This line climbed sharply to reach double-digits on Saturday and the halftime advantage was nine points for Houston right in the middle of those numbers with the game opening at just -5 for the Cougars. SMU closed to within two points in the third quarter but allowed a 52-yard touchdown a few plays later. The Mustangs stayed close after hitting a late third quarter field goal to trail by six heading into the fourth quarter. Houston delivered an early fourth quarter touchdown to lead by 13. SMU wound up with a big yardage edge but couldn’t cash in late with the final three drives ending on downs at the Houston 34-yard-line, intercepted at the Houston 1-yard-line, and intercepted at the Houston 6-yard-line as the cover eluded a deserving underdog.
Wisconsin (-12½) 38, Nebraska 17: The Badgers scored early on a long interception return but Nebraska proved up for the challenge through three quarters with the game tied until a 93-yard touchdown drive was completed by the Badgers with about 20 minutes remaining in the game. That put Wisconsin up seven but still short of covering the hefty road favorite spread. Wisconsin’s defense was stout the rest of the way and the running game took over leading to two fourth quarter touchdown drives for the Badgers to pull away.
Texas (-5) 40, Kansas State 34: Texas wound up with twice as many first downs as Kansas State but this was a tie game through three quarters and the Wildcats were in front by three with an early fourth quarter field goal. Texas missed a field goal after a 73-yard drive but forced a punt to get the ball back with four minutes to go. The Longhorns stalled in the red zone and kicked a field goal to tie the game with just fewer than two minutes remaining. Texas quickly got an interception and lined up what would have been a game-winning kick but the attempt missed from 45 yards and overtime was needed. After matching touchdowns in the first overtime Kansas State went backwards and missed a field goal in the second session, going backwards after a pair of costly holding calls. The missed kicks wound up paying off for some Longhorns backers with distrust in the kicking game Texas didn’t get conservative only needing three points and wound up in the end zone on a rush that likely could have been blown dead just outside the goal line. The pile pushed in for six points to get Texas a win by six, enough to cover early week and closing lines, although Saturday morning the line did reach -6½ and -7 before falling back down as some on Kansas State held on for the underdog cover.
Central Florida (-14½) 51, Cincinnati 23: The Knights continued a dominant start to the season, past the road favorite spread by halftime with a 37-16 advantage with that edge growing to a 28-point margin late in the third quarter before a weather delay. With the outcome in hand and a lengthy delay continuing the game was called, certainly making those with a ticket on the Knights or the ‘over’ more than a bit upset with a no-action result for an incomplete game.
Stanford (-3) 23, Utah 20: This Saturday Pac-12 contest was mostly a match of field goal kickers with the Cardinal up 16-13 through three quarters, right even with a closing spread of -3 though Sunday night and Monday Stanford was as high as a -6½-point favorite. Stanford was still -4 through Saturday night before emerging Sunday morning at -3½ and slipping to -3 mid-day, even briefly sliding to -2½ for a few moments before kickoff at a few outlets. Early in the fourth quarter Bryce Love added to his monster start to the season with a 68-yard touchdown run to put the Cardinal up by 10. In the final minute Utah completed a 95-yard touchdown drive that featured a 4th down conversion via penalty, scoring the underdog cover for many on the Utes.
Washington (-29) 38, California 7: The Huskies completely dominated the statistics in this late night game but with a 31-0 edge a fumble was returned for a touchdown to put the Bears on the board and within the hefty underdog number late in the third quarter. California went for the on-side kick and Washington was set-up in great field position and the Huskies converted a pair of third downs to find the end zone, getting back ahead of the spread. In the final seconds the Bears were a serious threat for the backdoor cover reaching the Washington 13-yard-line before back-to-back sacks with the game ending in a fumble.