4th Quarter Covers - Week 8
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the eighth big college football weekend between Oct. 19-21.
Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.
Memphis (+1) 42, Houston 38: Houston led 17-0 at halftime and still clung to a 31-21 lead heading into the fourth quarter despite allowing a kickoff return touchdown. The Tigers scored first in the fourth quarter to trail by only three, even with the opening spread on the game though the line quickly fell to -2½ for the home favorite before closing at just -1. Houston answered with a 13-play 81-yard touchdown drive to go back up by 10 with fewer than seven minutes remaining. Memphis delivered a pair of touchdown drives in the final minutes surrounding a Houston 3-and-out and took the lead with a minute and a half remaining. The final two possessions for Houston ended in turnovers as Memphis escaped with a road win and cover.
Western Kentucky (-7) 35, Old Dominion 31: The Hilltoppers led by seven at the half but an energized Old Dominion squad rallied with 17 points in the third quarter to lead by 10 as an underdog with a line as high as +10 early in the week before closing at +7. In the span of less than two minutes in the middle of the fourth quarter Western Kentucky had a pair of touchdown strikes in between a Monarchs interception to suddenly lead 35-31. With still more than seven minutes remaining the favorite cover was back on the table as a possibility. That cause got even more life with an Old Dominion fumble in Western Kentucky territory as the Monarchs went for it on 4th-and-short. The Hilltoppers played conservatively and got the game clock into the final minute before punting and Old Dominion was intercepted with no return on the final play as the Monarchs still held the cover in a demoralizing loss.
Air Force (-6) 45, Nevada 42: Air Force wound up posting nearly 600 yards in this game but they led by just seven through three quarters, even with the common spread during the week though the Falcons opened and closed just below that key number. Nevada tied the game with 11:39 remaining and touchdowns were exchanged between these Mountain West foes to keep the game tied past the four-minute mark. Air Force converted a pair of big third down plays to sustain a drive into scoring territory but those looking for a spread-saving touchdown were denied as the Falcons were pushed back with a personal foul penalty and settled for running out the clock and kicking a game-winning field goal.
Colorado State (-10) 27, New Mexico 24: The Rams moved from an opening favorite price of -6½ all the way up to -10 by kickoff late Friday night. Down by 11 at halftime New Mexico struck for a quick two-play touchdown drive midway through the third quarter to trail by four. Colorado State connected for a field goal early in the fourth quarter and then taking advantage of the only turnover in the game the Rams went up by 10 with a second field goal with about five minutes remaining. New Mexico converted a 4th-and-15 near midfield and then reached 1st-and-goal from the Colorado State four-yard-line just past the two-minute mark. Three penalties, a recovered fumble, and a near interception followed and New Mexico faced 2nd-and-goal from the 31-yard-line. Freshman quarterback Tevaka Tuioti got almost half of the yardage back with a near-sack scramble and then on 4th down connected for a jump ball touchdown with 24 seconds remaining to put the Lobos inside the underdog spread. New Mexico actually recovered the onside kick as well but took a sack on the game’s final play.
Northwestern (-2½) 17, Iowa 10: Northwestern didn’t score in the first half but the Wildcats managed to tie the game halfway through the third quarter and then took a 10-7 lead with eight minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Iowa threw an interception on its next possession but Northwestern failed to capitalize, failing going for it on 4th down rather than attempting a long field goal. Iowa managed to tie the game with a field goal at the 1:30 mark, a kick pushed back to 48 yards after a false start. In overtime Northwestern went first and Clayton Thorson delivered a touchdown, while Iowa was unable to pick up a first down as the Wildcats got the win and cover in a key Big Ten West game.
SMU (-6) 31, Cincinnati 28: The Mustangs trailed most of the first half but wound up going up by one by halftime. The third quarter featured missed opportunities on both sides and with just over six minutes remaining in the game SMU delivered a 25-yard touchdown strike to lead 28-20. The Bearcats would answer with a 21-yard touchdown pass on 4th-and-3 and Hayden Moore hit Devin Gray again for the two-point-conversion as well to tie the game with just over two minutes remaining. In overtime SMU incredibly converted a 4th-and-26 play but wound up still settling for a field goal to the chagrin of those laying points with the Mustangs. On a 3rd down play for Cincinnati Moore was intercepted as SMU sealed the narrow road win but fell short of the spread.
Western Michigan (-1½) 20, Eastern Michigan 17: The Broncos opened at -4 but -3 was the common number most of the week before sliding on game day. Western Michigan led by three at halftime but the game was tied early in the third quarter and then again early in the fourth quarter. Western Michigan had a fumble and a missed field goal late in the fourth quarter to keep the game tied 17-17. The Broncos went first in overtime and reached the 5-yard-line quickly before stalling, settling for a 21-yard field goal. That handed Eastern Michigan a golden opportunity to beat their rival and they wound up with 2nd-and-goal from the 2-yard-line. The Eagles went backwards and then tragically missed a 24-yard kick to lose rather than force a second overtime in a difficult finish for the team and those with underdog tickets.
Michigan State (-6½) 17, Indiana 9: A week after Michigan State backers suffered a tough backdoor cover at their expense the Spartans turned in an improbable cover in a tight Big Ten clash. Indiana’s defense played outstanding but the offense only mustered field goals as the Hoosiers led 9-3 well into the fourth quarter. A pass interference call helped the cause and Michigan State converted a big 4th-and-3 play and eventually wound up in the end zone with six minutes remaining to lead 10-9. Indiana was forced to punt and just past the two minute mark L.J. Scott broke an 18-yard touchdown run that put the Spartans up by eight, just past the home favorite spread for the win and cover.
Pittsburgh (+9½) 24, Duke 17: Duke was up 17-7 with just seconds remaining in the third quarter before Darrin Hall broke a 92-yard touchdown run for the Panthers. Hall scored again in the fourth as Pittsburgh took over in the final frame as two late productive drives for Duke ended in a missed field goal and an interception.
Wisconsin (-24) 38, Maryland 13: The Badgers led 28-3 early in the fourth quarter but Maryland added the next 10 points to make the favorite cover unlikely with a 15-point edge heading into the fourth quarter. With nine minutes remaining Wisconsin completed a touchdown drive to put the game away but they were short of the spread up by 22. In the final minutes the Badgers were running out the clock before a spread result deciding 3rd-and-3 play with just over a minute to go. If Wisconsin netted the first down they would take a knee but Bradrick Shaw was stopped just short and Wisconsin kicked a short field goal for a 25-point final margin, with the total just eclipsed with the late kick as well.
Central Florida (-10½) 31, Navy 21: Perfect on the season UCF opened at -6½ but the line reached -9½ and eventually -10½. The Knights were tested with a 14-14 tie early in the second half before a 79-yard run put UCF up by seven. A field goal made it a 10-point margin heading into the fourth quarter but Navy delivered a touchdown drive to climb to within three early in the fourth. The Knights became a real upset threat getting the ball back with an interception but they fumbled a few plays later. UCF found the end zone with 3:30 remaining to go back up by 10 and Navy’s final two possessions ended on downs and with an interception.
Minnesota (-14) 24, Illinois 17: Up 10-7 through three quarters the favorite cover looked very unlikely but the Gophers nearly stole a second straight fortunate late cover with the common line at -13½ on this game. Illinois tied the game with 10 minutes remaining but Minnesota put together a long scoring drive and then seconds later delivered a defensive score to suddenly lead by 14. It wound up not mattering as Illinois would hit the end zone with 23 seconds left to secure the underdog cover.
Alabama (-37) 45, Tennessee 7: Tennessee delivered a 97-yard interception return touchdown in the third quarter that looked like it would be enough for the heavy underdog cover. Alabama still led by 28 through three quarters and added a touchdown early in the fourth quarter from backup quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. With less than five minutes remaining the Tide hit on a 60-yard pass play to finish the game up by 38 for a narrow cover on the huge favorite price.
Georgia Tech (-3) 38, Wake Forest 24: This game featured one of the biggest line moves of the week with the Yellow Jackets opening at -8½ and sliding down all the way to just -3 by kickoff. The move looked appropriate early as Wake Forest took a 21-10 lead with a minute remaining in the first half. Georgia Tech managed a long field goal before the break and then broke a 49-yard run for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter but the Yellow Jackets failed going for two and the tie, trailing 21-19. The Demon Deacons surrendered another long run late in the third quarter to fall behind 25-24 heading into the fourth quarter, though still within the underdog spread. In somewhat bizarre fashion Wake Forest would go for it on 4th-and-short in Georgia Tech territory on each of the next three possessions, failing all three times and watching Georgia Tech deliver two fourth quarter touchdown drives to lead 38-24. Wake Forest was again deep in Georgia Tech territory in the final two minutes with a chance to save the cover for the early week backers but an interception ended the threat as the Yellow Jackets delivered a big ACC wins to erase the memories of the close loss from the previous week.
South Florida (-10) 34, Tulane 28: The road favorite spread in this game fell throughout the week but the Bulls managed to lead 20-7 at halftime despite fairly even production. South Florida pulled away in the third quarter taking a 34-7 advantage but an interception sparked a Tulane comeback. After a Wave touchdown South Florida missed a field goal and Tulane had climbed back to within 13 halfway through the fourth quarter. South Florida missed another field goal and Tulane’s rushing attack took just five plays to go 71 yards for the backdoor cover touchdown. Nearly three minutes still remained but Tulane went for the onside kick and failed, handing South Florida great field position. The Bulls would reach the Tulane 9-yard line before taking a knee as the underdog held on late with the comeback cover.
Southern Miss (+1) 34, Louisiana Tech 27: Louisiana Tech led 17-16 heading into the fourth quarter and added a field goal to lead by four. As has been the case in most Louisiana Tech games this season the fourth quarter would feature great drama. Southern Miss reached 1st-and-goal from the Louisiana Tech 5-yard-line but fumbled. The Bulldogs went 96 yards in just over two minutes to seemingly seal the win, up 11 with just over four minutes remaining. The Golden Eagles converted a fourth down in their own territory and eventually hit a 49-yard field goal to sit down eight with 1:23 on the clock. Southern Miss successfully picked up the onside kick but got pushed back with a 15-yard penalty after the play. Two big runs put the Golden Eagles in range for a shot at the end zone, aided by a personal foul penalty on Louisiana Tech. With 31 seconds remaining Keon Howard delivered a 22-yard touchdown pass and the Golden Eagles successfully tied the game with the two-point-conversion. Louisiana Tech attempted a 64-yard field goal as time expired but overtime was necessary. In the first session both teams came up empty with interceptions Southern Miss only needed one play in the second session to go up by seven with another touchdown catch for Korey Robertson. A sack proved too much to overcome for Louisiana Tech, eventually failing on 4th-and-24 as the Golden Eagles stole a big road win in Conference USA.
Arizona (-5½) 45, California 44: The line on this game shifted dramatically as Arizona opened at +1½ before a full seven-point swing by kickoff. The Wildcats led 21-7 at halftime but California had the game knotted at 28-28 by the 10 minute mark of the fourth quarter. Matching field goals kept the game tied but Arizona still had nearly two minutes of clock to work with. The Wildcats crossed midfield but eventually the threat ended with an interception. Both teams delivered touchdowns in the first overtime. Arizona delivered seven in the second session and California quickly answered. Justin Wilcox rolled the dice going for two and the win but the Bears were stopped as Arizona held on for a narrow Pac-12 win, though most on the Wildcats were still spread losers.
West Virginia (-12½) 38, Baylor 36: West Virginia pulled away in the third quarter in Waco turning an 11-point halftime lead into a 25-point advantage up 38-13. Baylor hit a big pass play touchdown and then after an onside kick delivered a big run in the first three minutes of the fourth quarter to get back within the closing spread trailing 38-27 though many were able to lay just -9 on the Mountaineers earlier in the week. West Virginia was held to a 3-and-out and Baylor was within a single score after a field goal near the six-minute mark. The Mountaineers were only able to move the chains once as the Bears got the ball back with still four minutes to play, though needing to go 86 yards. Charlie Brewer converted a big fourth down play in Baylor territory and with 17 seconds remaining the Bears struck for a touchdown, but couldn’t come up with the tying conversion to extend the game.