4th Quarter Covers - Week 9
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the ninth big college football weekend to close down October. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.
South Carolina (-7) 34, Vanderbilt 27: The Commodores trailed just 24-20 well into the third quarter, but early in the fourth quarter, South Carolina had pulled away with a 34-20 edge. Vanderbilt responded with a 14-play touchdown drive to trail by seven and that is where the final score ended as Vanderbilt was stopped at the South Carolina 40-yard-line on its final possession. A blocked Vanderbilt extra-point in the second quarter would up being a critical play with the closing line push, though some Gamecocks backers were able to snag -6½.
Akron (+3) 21, Buffalo 20: Buffalo led 20-14 early in the fourth quarter and that lead looked like it might hold after a big interception gave the Bulls the ball back on a missed scoring opportunity for Akron. The Bulls picked up 39 yards on their next drive but were forced to punt, pinning Akron at the 9-yard-line. It only took the Zips nine plays for a go-ahead touchdown drive, leading by one with fewer than five minutes remaining. Buffalo delivered a late threat to take the lead back, but a 46-yard field goal was missed although the spread result proved mixed as Akron opened at -3 before climbing to -5 before a flip with Buffalo -1 and then eventually -3 by Saturday.
Oklahoma State (-8½) 50, West Virginia 39: This Big XII game featured nine turnovers and a solid 20-point Cowboys lead melted in the final minutes of the third quarter with the Mountaineers scoring on a blocked punt return and an interception return in the span of 50 seconds of game clock to make it a six-point game. Oklahoma State would pull away in the fourth, capitalizing on an interception to set-up one of three short field scores in the final frame and eventually winning by 11.
Maryland (+6½) 42, Indiana 39: With a common week spread of -4½, Indiana sat up by five heading into the fourth quarter, but Maryland would score its third touchdown of the game on a drive with fewer than 20 yards of offense to take a two-point edge as special teams proved to be the difference in this Big Ten East battle. Maryland added another touchdown to lead by nine before Indiana responded to get back within two with still more than eight minutes remaining. Maryland controlled the field position the rest of the way and productive Indiana drives didn’t get the Hoosiers any points as Indiana moved to 0-5 in Big Ten play despite massive advantages in this box score including a 35-18 edge in first downs.
Louisiana Tech (-12) 42, Rice 28: The Bulldogs led by 14 heading into the fourth quarter, but Rice managed to tie the game with 4:33 remaining with a 51-yard pass play. The Bulldogs managed to deliver a 75-yard touchdown drive, but with the game into the final minute the favorite cover seemed highly unlikely. A 37-yard interception return touchdown with 36 seconds remaining handed Louisiana Tech a narrow favorite cover in a game they were +4 in turnovers, offsetting a slight yardage deficit.
Northwestern (+1½) 39, Michigan State 31: Northwestern led 17-10 in the fourth quarter, but Michigan State managed to tie the game with just 25 seconds remaining, after earlier missing a field goal in the fourth quarter. With a near even spread the overtime winner would also cover in most scenarios though those on the ‘under’ in one of the lowest totals of the day certainly cursed the need for extra session(s). Both teams found the end zone with relative ease in each of the first two overtimes and in the third overtime, a Northwestern touchdown made the overtime scoring match the regulation scoring. Needing to go for two, the Wildcats converted for a commanding eight-point edge and sealed the game with an interception on a forced second down throw from the Spartans.
Florida Atlantic (-6) 42, Western Kentucky 28: This line climbed sharply early in the week jumping from -2 to briefly -7 before settling at -6 by kickoff. It didn’t appear to matter as Western Kentucky led 28-20 through three quarters. In the fourth quarter, the Owls took over with touchdowns on a 60-yard run with a two-point-conversion to tie the game and then a 49-yard pass play to lead by seven just six minutes into the final frame. FAU added another touchdown later in the fourth quarter and then sacked the Hilltoppers just outside the red zone on a 4th-and-3 play to seal the game and the road favorite cover.
Arkansas (+2½) 38, Mississippi 37: Ole Miss led 31-7 in the second quarter, but Arkansas managed two touchdowns in the final three minutes of the second quarter to stay in the game. Mississippi led by three entering the fourth, but had to settle for a pair of field goals on successful drives to only lead by nine just after the 10-minute mark. Arkansas got the big break it needed with a fumble return touchdown to climb back within two with six minutes to go and then delivered a game-winning field goal in the final seconds for an incredible comeback win.
Ohio State (-7½) 39, Penn State 38: Penn State started the game with a kickoff return touchdown and a 23-yard touchdown drive following a fumble as Ohio State was playing catch-up the whole game. The Buckeyes had dominant production numbers, but they still trailed by 15 heading into the fourth quarter. Ohio State managed to close to within five at the 4:20 mark and then took a 39-38 lead with 1:48 to play, missing going for two. The Buckeyes dominated on defense getting the ball back at the Penn State 36-yard line, with a miracle front door cover possible, but Penn State exhausted its final two timeouts and Ohio State picked up a first down to be able to run out the clock, winning but failing to cover despite a 529-283 edge in total yards.
Nebraska (+4) 25, Purdue 24: The Boilermakers led 24-12 early in the fourth quarter, but Nebraska delivered a touchdown strike to climb within five, sitting right near the spread. Nebraska went for it on 4th-and-6 from the Purdue 15 with still nearly seven minutes to go, failing in what looked like a defeat-sealing decision. The Nebraska defense held to get the ball back and went 70 yards in just over a minute, getting the go-ahead touchdown with just 14 seconds remaining.
Clemson (-14) 24, Georgia Tech 10: The Tigers were dominant statistically in this game, but after pulling ahead 24-3 early in the third quarter Clemson didn’t score again. After a fourth straight Clemson punt, Georgia Tech delivered a scoring drive that included a 4th-and-6 conversion near midfield, breaking a 22-yard run for a touchdown with under five minutes to go to save a push for many.
Virginia Tech (-17½) 24, Duke 3: After a pair of early turnovers handed Virginia Tech a 10-0 lead, then this ACC matchup turned into a defensive battle with both offenses struggling. With just 42 seconds before halftime a decent punt return set-up a Hokies touchdown just before the break and another marginal punt late in the third quarter set-up another Hokies score, getting past the spread with a 24-3 edge late in the third quarter. Duke appeared set to answer, but went backwards after reaching the Virginia Tech 24-yard line, opting to still go for it on 4th-and-14 and failing with 14 minutes to go. The next Duke drive reached the Virginia Tech 11-yard-line before another fourth down failure as the Hokies escaped with a narrow cover despite only scoring a few more points than the closing spread.
Iowa (-7) 17, Minnesota 10: Iowa led 14-0 through three quarters, but the Gophers made a late charge closing to 17-10 with just over four minutes remaining after Iowa held Minnesota out of the end zone from 1st-and-10 at the 15-yard-line. Minnesota got the ball back with over a minute remaining, but made little progress as Iowa held on for the win and a push on the closing line though some backers of the Gophers landed +7½ early in the week.
Arkansas State (-3½) 37, New Mexico State 21: The Aggies led 21-17 after scoring on the first play of the fourth quarter, but it was all ASU the rest of the way with back-to-back touchdowns in the span of three minutes for a 30-21 edge. An interception set-up another score for the Red Wolves for a misleading final result in a New Mexico State collapse.
Texas San Antonio (-15) 31, UTEP 14: With a 10-point edge, the Roadrunners had stalled on offense with back-to-back 3-and-outs, but a pick-6 put UTSA up by 17 just past the 11-minute mark in the fourth quarter. A late fumble gave UTEP a shot for the backdoor cover, eventually reaching the UTSA 34-yard-line before falling short on downs with the Roadrunners able to run out the final five minutes of clock for the narrow road favorite cover.