NY JETS (6-3) @ NEW ENGLAND (6-3)
Line says New England -3....
Hmm... lets look it...
The Jets for 2008 Season have been on average... over a 2.5 FAV.. Well now, if memory serves me Home Field Advantage is usually right at 3 pts... right.?. sounds like the books arent sure bout the JETS or is it that they arent sure about the PATS..?..
I have took the time to break down the head-to-head from 2002-2007 between these two teams and came up with some interesting things..... the line as it is might be a little more deceiving than one might think.
Here it is...
Patriots vs Jets Since 2002-2007
Patriots (83%) SU(10-2)*not counting the 19-10 victory this season...
Patriots also turn up with an (83%) ATS from 2002-2007 vs the JETS with a line of 3 or less... nothing big yet.. Patriots have averaged over (20) points on offense while holding the Jets to just over (12) points a game in that time. The Patriots have also held a very convincing edge in the 1st down category with over (20) 1st downs a game from 02'-07 vs the Jets... while the Jets have been bogged down by the Pats Defense only gaining right around (15) 1st downs per game in that time.
How about a little more "food for thought"...?... The PATS have outgained the JETS on the ground by (65) yards on average per game since 02'(again not counting the (104) yards on the ground from their first meeting this season)..
I would also mention that the Jets have been a FAV by around (2.5) points..
Well that enough rambling for right now... I guess... I need to finish watching KENT STATE rout TEMPLE...
I will post more as I come out of the mine.. Good Luck To All.. Let me know what you think....
Nice writeup taco, I like the Pats a lot in this game.
Thanks for the back up... I have them as one of my picks this week also...
Havent researched the other 4 yet... but I am gonna post those as soon as I complete them.
I might be going out on a limb but I like the Patriots -5.5
I read a few of the trends you posted and the info was greatly appreciated.
Thanks again for the positive feedback..
Nice info. I have been on the Jets in this one, but I may have to look into it a bit more with these stats.
Not sure if newly signed Ty Law can make any difference but I'm sure he is licking his chops to go against his former team.
N Illnois hurt me last night but at least I played Kent St to make up for it
NY JETS (6-3) @ NEW ENGLAND (6-3)
Line says New England -3....
Hmm... lets look it...
The Jets for 2008 Season have been on average... over a 2.5 FAV.. Well now, if memory serves me Home Field Advantage is usually right at 3 pts... right.?. sounds like the books arent sure bout the JETS or is it that they arent sure about the PATS..?..
I have took the time to break down the head-to-head from 2002-2007 between these two teams and came up with some interesting things..... the line as it is might be a little more deceiving than one might think.
Here it is...
Patriots vs Jets Since 2002-2007
Patriots (83%) SU(10-2)*not counting the 19-10 victory this season...
Patriots also turn up with an (83%) ATS from 2002-2007 vs the JETS with a line of 3 or less... nothing big yet.. Patriots have averaged over (20) points on offense while holding the Jets to just over (12) points a game in that time. The Patriots have also held a very convincing edge in the 1st down category with over (20) 1st downs a game from 02'-07 vs the Jets... while the Jets have been bogged down by the Pats Defense only gaining right around (15) 1st downs per game in that time.How about a little more "food for thought"...?... The PATS have outgained the JETS on the ground by (65) yards on average per game since 02'(again not counting the (104) yards on the ground from their first meeting this season)..
I would also mention that the Jets have been a FAV by around (2.5) points..
Well that enough rambling for right now... I guess... I need to finish watching KENT STATE rout TEMPLE...
I will post more as I come out of the mine.. Good Luck To All.. Let me know what you think....
Taco, nice write up. But, I have to respectfully wash this analysis as these stats mean nothing without Brett Favre and Tom Brady in this game, period. I am not saying the Jets will win or cover, I am still researching, but you can't base this game off previous matchups between these 2 teams. Brett Favre has changed the complexity of this entire Jets team. Previously, they had no offense to speak of, so the Pats would load the box and blitz, blitz, blitz. I would love to see them try that same shit tonight against the gunslinger himself. Then you have Cassell who is serviceable, but still no Brady. Brady was lightning in a bottle for this team and they simply don't have that dynamic offense anymore. Don't fall into the mistake of basing this game on previous matchups, it would be death to your bankroll.
Peace 😉
My two cents on this one.
I think you are over looking the Jets here with Farve in the almost (if you have the NFL network) Prime spotlight. This team is an all around much improved team from the past. Their defense has 31 sacks on the year, while only allowing 3.1 yards per catch as well. Did anyone see Thomas Jones last weekend? He ran for 149 yds. This team should be 7-1 if it was not for a 57 yard game winning field goal at Oakland and an interception thrown in the fourth against the Pats. Ya they lost to a good San Diego team, at San Diego, when Farve only new half of the offensive plays. Then there is a major revenge factor here too. I'm sure that Farve noted this game in his mind after lossing to them at home. I really think that this game is not a coin flip that the public is making out to be. Take the good value in the Jets moneyline at +140.
Great points guys... thanks.. I may have posted my write up wrong or maybe I worded it in a way that it was misinterpreted.
I was just posting a few things of interest... like the PATS being a 3pt FAV, and the JETS have been on average a 2.5 FAV so far this season. I wanted to portray that the JETS stand a better chance of covering but my write up was not as efficient as possible. Also, Favre is only edging Cassel by around 1% in completions, but TD's are Favre's edge all the way. T. Jones and the JETS will most definitely control possession, as far as the PATS I dont think that they do get it done even at home tonight. My apologies guys for my insufficient write up. I do appreciate the comments.
Great points guys... thanks.. I may have posted my write up wrong or maybe I worded it in a way that it was misinterpreted.
I was just posting a few things of interest... like the PATS being a 3pt FAV, and the JETS have been on average a 2.5 FAV so far this season. I wanted to portray that the JETS stand a better chance of covering but my write up was not as efficient as possible. Also, Favre is only edging Cassel by around 1% in completions, but TD's are Favre's edge all the way. T. Jones and the JETS will most definitely control possession, as far as the PATS I dont think that they do get it done even at home tonight. My apologies guys for my insufficient write up. I do appreciate the comments.
Taco, your write up was good man, no worries 🙂
I was just stating my 1.5 cents about the comparisons of previous matchups between these 2 teams. If someone wants to look at those matchups as relevant, then I am sure they would make a great case. I myself just can't bet on this game based on the history of these 2 teams considering the changing dynamic of both offenses/defenses.
Podsports is right when he says the Jets are a different defense with Favre at QB. They are on the field less and are asked to do less, especially if the offense is putting up numbers.
I am going with the moneyline +145 on a small play and the Jets +3.5 as my normal play. Good luck to all!