AAC Betting Preview
By Steve Petrella
Sportingnews.com
The American Athletic Conference may not be in the national conversation. None of its teams are listed as betting entries on the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's national title oddsboard.
Still, it could be a fun conference to watch and bet in 2015. A variety of offensive styles and some strong defenses should clash and make for an exciting race.
This is the first in our series of conference betting previews. Up next, the MAC.
Odds to win the AAC
The AAC now has two, six-team divisions and a title game on championship weekend.
There's no bigger dropoff in conference odds between two teams than there is in the AAC. Seven teams are listed at 10-to-1 or less, and the eighth, South Florida, is at 50-to-1. After that, there are four at 100-to-1.
Two of the last three years (dating back to Conference USA, from which many teams defected to join the AAC), there’s been a three-way tie for first. With a conference title game, that will change, but it speaks to the league’s parity. There are probably four or five, maybe six, teams with a legitimate shot to win this conference in 2015.
Here are odds to win the AAC championship game, courtesy of the Westgate.
Cincinnati 2-1
Memphis 2-1
Houston 4-1
East Carolina 8-1
Central Florida 8-1
Navy 8-1
Temple 10-1
South Florida 50-1
Tulane 100-1
SMU 100-1
Tulsa 100-1
UConn 100-1
Game of the Year lines
With multiple games on Thursday nights, as well as a few that will get some sort of national billing on Saturdays, the AAC has found its way onto the Games of the Year board at the Golden Nugget.
Sept. 24: Cincinnati at Memphis (-2)
Oct. 1: Miami (FL) at Cincinnati (-2.5)
Oct. 10: Navy (+14) at Notre Dame
Oct. 31: Central Florida at Cincinnati (-6)
Dec. 12: Navy (-13) vs. Army (neutral site)
Heisman hopefuls
While betting on the Heisman Trophy is not allowed in Las Vegas, two players from the AAC are listed offshore to win the award.
Gunner Kiel, QB, Cincinnati, 175/1
Keenan Reynolds, QB, Navy, 150/1
IIdentity is entertaining
Balance on offense and defense can go a long way, but it's not always fun to watch. That's where the AAC comes in.
Its newest addition, Navy, brings its vaunted option offense and porous defense. Cincinnati will score a ton. SMU will play a spread attack that mirrors Clemson's. Tulsa will try to replicate Baylor. Temple and Tulane should have two of the best mid-major defenses in the country — Temple quite possibly the best.
F/+ is an efficiency measure from FootballOutsiders.com. Ever wonder why a team is a favorite against a perceived stronger opponent? Check out F/+. It's a good overarching indicator of a team's success. Any measure of F/+ is from 2014. FEI is per-drive measure that can be broken down to offense and defense.
Records are last season's straight-up, in-conference, against-the-spread and OVER/UNDER marks. Returning starters are estimated.
Cincinnati (9-4 SU, 7-1 AAC, 7-5-1 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 7.5
2014 F/+: 47
5-year F/+: 90
Returning starters (Offense, defense, QB?): 8, 5, yes
Cincy was ravaged by injury early in 2014 and rallied to finish 9-4. Quarterback Gunner Kiel (remember him?) returns, as do his top five receivers. This offense, despite lacking a breakaway back, can be explosive.
If the defense (87th in FEI in 2014) can improve just a little, Cincy will flirt with nine wins again, even with a tough schedule.
Memphis (10-3 SU, 7-1 AAC, 8-4-1 ATS, 8-5 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 8.5
2014 F/+: 41
5-year F/+: 104
Returning starters: 9, 3, yes
Justin Fuente has worked a miracle turning this program around, but 2015 will be different than 2014, when the Tigers relied on an outstanding defense that both limited and made big plays. Led by the talented but often-erratic Paxton Lynch, the offense was the weaker link.
This year, Memphis returns Lynch, four of its five top receivers and all but one back. The ceiling is high, but can it get there to offset defensive loss?
Defensive coordinator Barry Odom is now at Missouri, and eight starters have moved on. But Fuente added three JuCo defensive backs and used a large rotation of corners, so there’s experience there. Fuente won't be around for too much longer, but this team has plenty of reason to believe it can win the AAC in 2015.
Houston (8-5 SU, 5-3 AAC, 7-5-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 8.5
2014 F/+: 73
5-year F/+: 53
Returning starters: 5, 5, yes
Houston played worse than its record indicated in 2014. Thanks to a soft schedule, it finished 8-5. Former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman is now in charge, and he has the weapons (deep backfield, dual-threat QB) to lead an effective attack.
The schedule is soft early. If the Cougars can find their footing, then click as the year goes on, they’ll touch that lofty win total.
The biggest concerns come in the trenches. Herman inherits a line that will replace three starters and ranked 92nd in adjusted line yards and 109th in adjusted sack rate. Defensively, Houston’s front seven will get a complete overhaul in both players and scheme (switching to a 3-4).
East Carolina (8-5 SU, 5-3 AAC, 7-5-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 7 (UNDER -120)
2014 F/+: 61
5-year F/+: 71
Returning starters: 6, 5, no
Replacing a three-year starting QB, an offensive coordinator and the country’s receptions leader is going to be a tall task. But the depth is there. The Pirates return 61 total lettermen and have a few three-star options at quarterback.
Defensively, the run defense should be stout again, but the secondary was so poor that opponents could avoid it all together. This team is capable of competing in the AAC, but may come up a game or two short.
Central Florida (9-4 SU, 7-1 AAC, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 7
2014 F/+: 60
5-year F/+: 38
Returning starters: 6, 4, yes
UCF had to take a step back after 2013 — Blake Bortles, Storm Johnson and three all-conference linemen were gone. The offense dropped to 73rd in FEI. The defense, 37th in FEI in 2014, was strong, but now has a lot of pieces to replace.
The biggest reason for the drop? Inconsistency on the offensive line (111th in adjusted line yards) and at quarterback. Justin Holman has an incredible arm and is gifted, but imploded at times. He’s back, as are eight of the 10 players who started on the line, so the offense should improve if it can find some receivers — about 80 percent of its targets from last season are gone.
The defense, always stout under George O’Leary, will regress with so much turnover, but should be able to maintain a top-60 level. Minus trips to Stanford and South Carolina, the schedule is fairly soft (UCF misses Memphis and Navy this year), so another eight wins could be in the cards.
Navy (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS, 4-8 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 7.5
2014 F/+: 44
5-year F/+: 55
Returning starters: 5, 6, yes
Navy has become a model of consistency over the last decade under Ken Niumatalolo. When you’ve got an option offense that works so seamlessly, even with a below average defense, you can win eight games a season. Navy proves it.
Quarterback Keenan Reynolds is listed on Heisman boards for a reason (5.7 ypc, 1311 yards, 23 TDs). The offensive line has work to do, but because Navy's option moves like an amoeba, the impact of turnover is usually minimal. Even when you know what's coming, you can't stop it.
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This is Navy’s first year in the conference. At 44th in F/+ last year, it trailed only one AAC team (Memphis), and its five-year rating trails only UCF.
The defense doesn’t have to be spectacular, but it has to be decent enough to let the offense thrive (Hint: The offense will). A trip to Memphis in early November could decide who represents that division in the conference's inaugural title game thanks to an otherwise weak slate. At 8-to-1 or better, Navy isn't a bad bet.
Temple (6-6 SU, 4-4 AAC, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 7 (over -125)
2014 F/+: 67
5-year F/+: 77
Returning starters: 8, 11, yes
The Owls return four starters on the offensive line. A defense that ranked 31st in FEI was terrific and brings back all 11 starters. This unit could be among the best in the nation.
Temple is the anti-Navy. We know the defense is going to be stellar, but can the offense (117th in FEI in 2014) do enough to let it contend? The totals will be very low, but watch for some early-season UNDERs.
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Temple’s schedule sets up nicely, too. It plays five of the 10 worst teams in the country from a season ago, and four of its six toughest games come at home. AAC contention is a possibility with this defense.
South Florida (4-8 SU, 3-5 AAC, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 4 (under -130)
2014 F/+: 123
5-year F/+: 78
Returning starters: 5, 7, yes
The Bulls have recruited well, but stunk on the field. A 2-10 team from 2013 somehow got worse in 2014, based on efficiency metrics. Since peaking in 2007 (they were ranked as high as No. 2. That was a strange season), South Florida has steadily gotten worse.
If you break down a team into five parts — rushing and passing offense and defense, and special teams — USF fails in everything but stopping the run. And not just fails -- ranks among the worst in the country.
With that recruiting talent (52nd in FBS over five years), it should get a little better, but the schedule is tough — nine games against F/+ top-70 teams. That win total of four is probably the best USF can do.
Tulane (3-9 SU, 2-6 AAC, 4-8 ATS, 5-7 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 5
2014 F/+: 93
5-year F/+: 115
Returning starters: 9, 7, yes
Another anti-Navy — Tulane has been sound defensively and inept offensively for the last decade. The Wave made a big jump in 2013 by going 7-6 even with an abysmal offense, but stepped back last year. Still, coach Curtis Johnson is building depth by recruiting locally, and that’s a good thing.
Tulane will be more experienced in 2015, too. Returning nine starters on offense (four on the line) will help. Just be decent enough, like Temple, and the defense can take care of the rest and get this team bowl eligible. The schedule is tough early (seven top-75 F/+ teams) and soft late (four 117 or worse).
SMU (1-11 SU, 1-7 AAC, 4-8 ATS, 8-4 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 2
2014 F/+: 127
5-year F/+: 82
Returning starters: 8, 7, yes
June Jones elevated this program to a level of consistency it hadn’t seen since the 1980s then resigned two games into 2014. SMU was horrible last year, no other way to put it.
But hey, the Mustangs return all five starters on an offensive line with 99 combined starts. Chad Morris, a former Clemson offensive coordinator, will run a spread offense that features a good mix of speed and physical play. And the Mustangs did improve as 2014 went on, albeit because it was hard to get worse.
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Improvement may mean two wins. It may mean being a top-115 team. The offense will be much better and maybe even fun to watch, even if the defense is still among the worst in the nation.
Tulsa (2-10 SU, 2-6 AAC, 5-7 ATS, 10-2 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 5 (under -135)
2014 F/+: 117
5-year F/+: 63
Returning starters: 10, 6, yes
Tulsa hired Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery and returns four offensive linemen and its quarterback. This program hovered around FBS-average for much of the last decade, then dropped off in a major way.
Montgomery’s offense will bring some excitement and points back (it's ridiculous OVER record from last season notwithstanding), and oddsmakers must like something about this team considering its win total is 5.
The Golden Hurricanes will be strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball, while the secondary is a weakness. Don’t be surprised to find Tulsa in some shootouts early and often.
Connecticut (2-10 SU, 1-7 AAC, 2-10 ATS, 5-7 O/U)
2015 Vegas win total: 3
2014 F/+: 119
5-year F/+: 90
Returning starters: 6, 8, no
UConn’s F/+ has gotten progressively worse each season since 2010. There are signs that point up, but they likely won’t come until 2-3 years down the line. The Huskies play nine top-75 F/+ teams this season.
UConn will be strong in the trenches, but really nowhere else. The offense has struggled for a half-dozen years now, so expecting any sort of major leaps is a stretch.