AAC College Football Preview
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
The American Athletic Conference goes through another shakeup in its third season as Navy joins the mix to increase the membership to 12 teams. Cincinnati is the fave to win the conference, but with Memphis, Temple and UCF in the fold, there is value in the AAC.
Central Florida Knights (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +700
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Knights: Central Florida has dominated conference opponents by going an impressive 15-1 over the last two seasons. The Knights have won back-to-back conference championships, and they’ll be in contention once again this season. Quarterback Justin Holman returns for his junior season after throwing for 2,952 yards with 23 touchdowns in 2014.
Why not bet the Knights: Despite Central Florida’s recent league domination, they have new coordinators on both sides of the ball. They also lost their top four wide receivers and all four of their starting defensive backs. Overall, Central Florida has the fewest returning starters (9) in the American Athletic Conference, so inexperience could be their undoing in 2015.
Season win total pick: Over 7
Cincinnati Bearcats (2014: 9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +260
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Bearcats: Cincinnati is poised for a big season in 2015. The Bearcats’ offense is loaded, and they return eight starters from last year’s team that averaged 34 points per game. Quarterback Gunner Kiel returns after throwing for 3,254 yards and a school record 31 touchdown passes in 2014.
Why not bet the Bearcats: Defense. Cincinnati’s stop unit regressed last season, allowing 27.2 points and 439 yards per game. They only gave up 21 points and 316 yards per game the season before. They return just five defensive starters this season, so they will need to improve dramatically if they want to win double digit games in 2015.
Season win total pick: Over 7
Connecticut Huskies (2014: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +8000
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Huskies: Bob Diaco will begin his second year at Connecticut, so the Huskies should improve some. They return 14 starters, including eight starters on a defense that was better than the season before. Connecticut’s defense could keep them in some games this season, so they could be live when getting a lot of points as an underdog.
Why not bet the Huskies: The offense is a major concern. Connecticut only averaged 15.5 points on 276 yards of total offense per game last season. The quarterback position doesn’t have a lot of experience, so another poor offensive season is quite likely. The road schedule is brutal as well, so there’s not a lot to like about Connecticut heading into the 2015 season.
Season win total pick: Under 3
East Carolina Pirates (2014: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Pirates: East Carolina has a successful program as they’ve made a bowl game in eight of the last nine seasons. The Pirates have won eight games or more in each of the last three years, and they’ll be in contention to extend that streak to four.
Why not bet the Pirates: The Pirates return just eleven starters overall, and they have a new offensive coordinator in Dave Nichol. East Carolina also has to replace a pair of offensive standouts, QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy, so Nichol’s job won’t be easy. Out of conference games at Florida and at BYU don’t help either, so the Pirates have some question marks coming into this season.
Season win total pick: Over 7
South Florida Bulls (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +5500
Season win total: 4
Why bet the Bulls: South Florida is in their third season under head coach Willie Taggart, so there’s a chance they could improve upon their 4 wins from a season ago. The Bulls should see defensive improvement, especially since they are switching to a 4-2-5 scheme that fits their personnel well.
Why not bet the Bulls: The team returns just 4 offensive starters, and under Taggart, the Bulls have only averaged 13.8 and 17.2 points per game. Overall, South Florida’s program has been in decline over the last four seasons, and there’s nothing to suggest a reversal of form will be seen in 2015.
Season win total pick: Under 4
Temple Owls (2014: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +400
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Owls: Temple returns 19 starters from a team that went 6-6 last season. The Owls have an excellent defense, and they should be the best in the AAC. Temple returns ten starters on a stop unit that only gave up 17.5 points per game last season. With 15 seniors on the two deep, Temple is set to have their best season in quite awhile.
Why not bet the Owls: Temple’s offense needs to get better. The Owls only averaged 308 yards per game last season, and they scored 20 points or less in their last seven games. In conference play, Temple was -69.5 yards per game, and that’s a direct reflection of their poor offense. If the scoring unit fails to improve, Temple will be a .500 team once again.
Season win total pick: Over 7
Houston Cougars (2014: 8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +825
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Cougars: Houston has some things pointing in their direction for a solid 2015 season. The Cougars return quarterback Greg Ward who completed 67.3 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,010 yards and 12 touchdowns in only eight games. Houston’s defense is good as well; the Cougars have given up just 21.8 and 20.6 points per game over their last two seasons.
Why not bet the Cougars: Houston has a whole new coaching staff this season. Head coach Tom Herman comes over from Ohio State where he was the offensive coordinator. Major Applewhite is the new offensive coordinator while Craig Naivar and Todd Orlando will co-coordinate the defense. With new schemes on both sides of the ball, Houston may not play-up to their talent level in 2015.
Season win total pick: Under 8
Memphis Tigers (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +350
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Tigers: Justin Fuente and Darrell Dickey’s offensive system exploded last season as Memphis averaged 36.2 points per game. The Tigers should roll along again in 2015 as eight offensive starters return, including QB Paxton Lynch who threw for 3,031 yards with 22 touchdown passes.
Why not bet the Tigers: Memphis came out of nowhere to win 10 games last season, and teams that fit that profile usually regress the following season. The Tigers’ defense was good last year (19.5 ppg), but that unit only returns three starters while losing coordinator Barry Odom to Missouri. Memphis’ season will hinge on their defense, and if they falter, the Tigers will be a .500 team at best.
Season win total pick: Under 8
Navy Midshipmen (2014: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1300
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Midshipmen: Navy runs the triple option offense, and it’s difficult to stop, especially for teams that haven’t seen it before and only have a week to prepare. The Midshipmen are affiliated with a league for the first time in 124 years, and they’ll have a major advantage over their opponents this season as none of them will have a bye prior to playing Navy. Senior QB Keenan Reynolds returns, so the Midshipmen will be a formidable team this season.
Why not bet the Midshipmen: Navy’s defense has been vulnerable to high-scoring, athletic offenses and they’ll face their fair share in the AAC this season. Their late schedule isn’t ideal either as they have to play at Memphis and at Houston in a 20-day span. If the Midshipmen can’t play consistent defense, their promising season will get derailed.
Season win total pick: Over 7
SMU Mustangs (2014: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 2
Why bet the Mustangs: SMU returns 16 starters this season after winning just one game in 2014. There’s nowhere to go but up for the Mustangs, so they should be a much better team this season. New head coach Chad Morris is a proven offensive guru as his Clemson’s offenses averaged 37.3 points per game over the last three years.
Why not bet the Mustangs: The Mustangs were embarrassingly bad on offense last year. They averaged just 11.1 points per game, and their average loss came by 30 points per game overall, and 22 points per game in conference play. New systems take time to develop, and unless SMU’s offense improves dramatically, they’ll finish with a losing record once again in 2015.
Season win total pick: Over 2
Tulane Green Wave (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +3700
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Green Wave: Tulane is in their fourth season under Curtis Johnson, and they return 16 starters, so there are some positives. The Green Wave will win with their defense, a unit that allowed a respectable 28.4 points and 388 yards per game in 2014. Those numbers aren’t bad considering they only went 3-9 SU last season. If the defense improves some, Tulane can be a sticky underdog this year.
Why not bet the Green Wave: Tulane has serious issues on offense. The unit only averaged 16 points per game last season, and they’ve averaged 347 yards per game or less in all three years under Johnson. The Green Wave scored a total of 16 points in their last three games of the 2014 season. If the offense doesn’t get significantly better, Tulane will be in the basement once again in 2015.
Season win total pick: Under 5
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2014: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +4000
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Golden Hurricane: Tulsa returns 16 starters in the first year of new head coach Philip Montgomery. He was Baylor’s offensive coordinator for the last three years, so he will implement a similar offense at Tulsa. The offense did average 24.7 points per game in 2014, so they could be even better under Montgomery’s schemes.
Why not bet the Golden Hurricane: The Golden Hurricane come in off a 2-win season, and while there’s nowhere to go but up, the team still lacks much talent. After winning 29 games from 2010-2012, Tulsa is just 5-19 over the last two seasons. It will take time for Montgomery to get the right players to fit his schemes, so 2015 figures to be a rebuilding season for Tulsa.
Season win total pick: Under 5