ACC College Football Betting Preview
By Will Rogers
Covers.com
The ACC could undergo a changing of the guard in 2015 after two seasons dominated by Florida State. The Seminoles will still be among the conference’s top programs, but there is value to be had behind FSU with contenders like Georgia Tech, Clemson and Virginia Tech.
Florida State Seminoles (2014: 13-1 SU, 3-11 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +230
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Seminoles: Replacing Jamies Winston isn't going to be easy, but that's exactly what they said when E.J. Manuel left. With seven starters returning on defense, they should have plenty of depth on the defensive side of the ball.
Why not bet the Seminoles: In addition to the departure of their starting quarterback, they also lose four offensive linemen, their top wide receiver (Rashad Greene), tight end (Nick O'Leary) and running back Karlos Williams. We may have gotten a preview of what like might be like for the Seminoles without Winston, when Sean Maguire filled in at home versus Clemson last season. He completed just 51 percent of his passes, and was picked off twice and sacked five times in that game.
Season win total pick: Under 9.5
Louisville Cardinals (2014: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1300
Season win total: 7.5
Why be the Cardinals: The Cardinals defense ranked among the best in the country for most of last season, and they return a formidable front seven. Former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields could make a huge impact, and this unit has the potential to be even better than it was in 2014.
Why not to bet the Cardinals: While Reggie Bonnafon appears to be the favorite to win the job for starting quarterback, it's unclear who he will be throwing to. Louisville lost three top receivers from last season, and it also lost three starters on the offensive line. With two of the first three games coming against the likes of Auburn and Clemson, the schedule isn't going to be easy.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
Clemson Tigers (2014: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +300
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet on the Tigers: Deshaun Watson returns at quarterback after his season was cut short by a torn ACL in 2014. He threw for 1,466 yards with 14 TDs and just two INTs before the injury. Mike Williams and Artavis Scott provide a couple of dangerous targets, and the duo combined to score 14 TDs on 133 receptions in 2014. If Watson stays healthy, you can expect big things for this offense in 2015.
Why not to bet on the Tigers: When Watson went down last year, things were ugly with Cole Stoudt running the offense. He threw more INTs (10) than he had TDs (9). Another injury to Watson could be devastating for the Tigers.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Miami Hurricanes (2014: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1500
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet on the Hurricanes: Quarterback Brad Kaaya was the ACC Rookie of the Year in 2014, and he comes into this season with high expectations. While the Hurricanes lost seven players in the NFL Draft, they have depth at the receiver position and a talented young running back in Joseph Yearby, who ran for 509 yards and a TD as a backup last year.
Why not to bet on the Hurricanes: They lose RB Duke Johnson, WR Phillip Dorsett and three starting offensive linemen including Ereck Flowers. They have plenty of work to do on a special teams unit that ranked last in the conference in kick return yards allowed last season.
Season win total pick: Over 5.5
Boston College (2014: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +6600
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet on the Eagles: The strength of this team is its defense, which ranked second in rushing yards allowed in 2014. They return five starters on a formidable front seven and their starting free safety, who was the team's leading tackler, will also be back and can play corner as well.
Why not to bet on the Eagles: They will need to replace all five starters on the offensive line, and offensive coordinator Ryan Day has moved on to the NFL (Philadelphia Eagles). They will likely experience some growing pains with an inexperienced group with a new quarterback learning a new system.
Season win total pick: Under 5.5
North Carolina State Wolfpack (2014: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1600
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Wolfpack: Jacoby Brissett had a big year for the Wolfpack throwing for 2,606 yards with 26 TDs and only five INTs in 2014. And they averaged over 200 yards per game on the ground last year, their best since 1992. While the offense appears to be in good shape, they also return seven starters on defense.
Why not to bet the Wolfpack: They went from 3-9 in 2013 to 8-5 last year, and because that the bar has been raised heading into this season it could be difficult to deliver on expectations.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
Syracuse Orange (2014: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +12500
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Orange: The good news (there isn't much) for the Orange is that they have a proven playmaker in Terrel Hunt at quarterback. Hunt only played in five games last year after breaking his fibula in the loss to Louisville. He's got some work to do as a pocket passer after throwing just one TD pass with four INTs last year, but he was a dual threat with six rushing TDs in his five starts.
Why not to bet the Orange: They will have eight new starters on a defense that was far from impressive in 2014, and Hunt will have to learn a new system with a new offensive coordinator.
Season win total pick: Under 4.5
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2014: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +13500
Season win total: 3.5
Why bet the Demon Deacons: They return 13 starters from last year, and Dave Clawson is optimistic that this year's team will be improved on both sides of the ball.
“The offensive line was the root of our problems a year ago and that will be a reason for our improvement next year,” said Clawson.
Why not to bet the Demon Deacons: Protecting the quarterback was a major issue last season, allowing 48 sacks - the most in the country. They often went backwards with their attempts to run the ball, failing to gain positive yards on 37 percent of their run plays. With eight freshmen starting on offense in 2015, these problems may not be an easy fix.
Season win total pick: Under 3.5
Duke Blue Devils (2014: 9-4 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1700
Season win total: 7
Why to bet the Blue Devils: The strength of this team is its secondary and they return all five starters in 2015. Duke has a soft schedule and it won't have to face ACC powerhouses Clemson and FSU.
Why not to bet the Blue Devils: They will need to replace Anthony Boone at quarterback and the offensive line took a big hit with Laken Tomlinson moving on to the NFL. There could be too many question marks on the offensive side of the ball for this team to deliver another winning season.
Season win total pick: Over 7
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2014: 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +550
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Yellow Jackets: With quarterback Justin Thomas running the option offense at Georgia Tech in 2014, the Yellow Jackets were tough to stop. Thomas ran for a school record 1,086 yards last season, and he could improve on that mark here in 2015.
Why not to bet the Yellow Jackets: The prognosis isn't as rosy on the defensive side of the ball, as they allowed an average of 411 yards per game last year. The defensive line lacks depth and that will likely continue to be a sore spot.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
North Carolina Tar Heels (2014: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +3300
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Tar Heels: The offense is in good shape with dual-threat quarterback Marquise Williams returning after setting a school record for total offense. They return 10 starters, with 100 percent of their running back corps intact. They also have a soft schedule to look forward to, not having to worry about Clemson, FSU or Louisville.
Why not to bet the Tar Heels: There is a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball, as this unit allowed an ACC-record 31 passing TDs in 2014. Special teams is also a huge concern for a team that was 0 for 7 with 30-plus yard field goal tries last season.
Season win total pick: Under 8
Pittsburgh Panthers (2014: 6-7 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Panthers: They return 15 starters, including ACC Player of the Year James Conner, who ran for 1,765 yards and 26 TDs last year. Wide receiver Tyler Boyd became the first player in history to compile 1,000 receiving yards in both his freshman and sophomore seasons.
Why not to bet the Panthers: Once again, there is new coach at the helm in Pittsburgh, as Pat Narduzzi replaces Paul Chryst who went back to Wisconsin. This is a program that has been mired in mediocrity, and that's unlikely to change overnight with another regime change.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Virginia Cavaliers (2014: 5-7 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +6600
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Cavaliers: The Cavs improved on a 2-10 record in 2013 and they appear to be heading in the right direction under head coach Mike London.
Why not to bet the Cavaliers: They lose a couple of key starters on defense with linebacker Max Valles and defensive end Eli Harold going to the NFL. They have a brutal non-conference schedule with UCLA, Boise State and Notre Dame in the first four weeks.
Season win total pick: Under 4.5
Virginia Tech Hokies (2014: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +550
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Hokies: The Hokies can say that they were the only team to beat the national champions last year, and winning on the road at Ohio State was an impressive result. A promising start to the season was derailed in 2014, but they might be able to get right back on track here in 2015.
Why not to bet the Hokies: Quarterback Michael Brewer showed flashes of brilliance at times last year, but he made more than his fair share of mistakes. His offensive line didn't do him any favors and that's likely to be a weakness again in 2015.
Season win total pick: Over 8