ACC Conference Preview

ACC Coastal Outlook
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com

Last year's straight-up, against the spread, and over/under results are included for each team, presented in predicted order of finish...

The last time a Virginia Tech (2015 SU 7-6, ATS 6-7, O/U 6-7) team was not coached by Frank Beamer, Wayne Gretzky still played for the Edmonton Oilers, Bill Walton played for the Boston Celtics, and Ronald Reagan was not quite halfway thru his second term in the White House. It was December of 1986, New Year’s Eve to be exact, at the Peach Bowl in the old Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium, and the Hokies would win a thriller vs. NC State, 25-24, on PK Chris Kinzer’s 40-yard FG on the final play of the game.

Even with the excitement of the win, it was not an easy time for the VPI program, as HC Bill Dooley, who had served in the dual capacity of AD and HC for nine years, would be leaving the school with a $3.5 million settlement courtesy a breach of contract settlement. Beamer, a former Hokie star player in the late ‘60s, was thus summoned home from Murray State, but would soon be working under sanctions imposed by the NCAA due to recruiting violations on Dooley’s watch. With his job on the line in 1993, Beamer pulled a bowl bid out of his hat, and the rest is history...VPI would soon become a national contender and has been “bowling” every year since.

No matter all of that success, the folks of Blacksburg have been ready for a while to turn the page on the era of Beamer, which had lost momentum in recent years as the coach endured some medical problems as he approached 70 years of age. The bowl streak also barely stayed alive three times in the past four seasons as the noted Beamer defense/special teams recipe lost its bite. Beamer’s hire of o.c. Scott Loeffler also turned sour, and there was talk each year of that campaign being Beamer’s last. Rather than stick around too long as did Joe Paterno and, to a lesser extent Bobby Bowden, Beamer was able to leave on his own terms last December before the decline became too steep. For good measure, Beamer would win his last game, though in uncharacteristic fashion as the Hokies hung on to win a 55-52 shootout over Tulsa in the Independence Bowl.

Though the program has slipped in recent years, a quick recovery is not out of the question, especially with well-regarded new HC Justin Fuente now in the fold. Fuente, who first came to prominence as o.c. for Gary Patterson at TCU, quickly resurrected the Memphis program in recent years before being lured to the hills of western Virginia. Along with him is the same up-tempo spread offense that would score 40 ppg for the Tigers a year ago.

Fuente does not inherit a completely bare cupboard, as eight starters return from a strike force that scored a respectable 31 ppg. Fifth-year sr. QB Brandon Motley played enough last season to throw 11 TDP, but most ACC observers believe Fuente will opt for touted juco Jerod Evans, targeted by Fuente to replace NFL Broncos first-round draft pick Paxton Lynch at Memphis before the job-jumping last December. The 6'4, 235-lb. dual-threat Evans, considered perfect for the spread, will be throwing to Tech’s top three receivers from last season including explosive WR Isaiah Ford, who caught 75 passes good for 11 TDs.

Meanwhile, four starters return along a veteran and accomplished OL that has started a combined 89 games in their Hokie careers. There is experience and depth at the RB spots, with soph Travon McMillian gaining 1155 YR a year ago despite not assuming featured ball-toting duties until mid-October.

For many years, it was assumed that Beamer’s longtime sidekick, d.c. Bud Foster, was the HC-in-waiting, though VPI never installed a formal succession plan. Which prompted Foster to pursue other opportunities in recent seasons. Always, however, Foster would opt to remain in Blacksburg, and Fuente was happy to keep the accomplished Bud on board in the same role for the new regime.

Injuries, youth, and attrition contributed to 2015 being one of the worst defensive performances of the Foster era, and the mere 26 sacks and 10 picks were lows since Bud assumed the reins of the stop unit in 1995. New assistants have imported some fresh ideas but the aggressive Foster schemes are still time-tested and will be utilized again this fall.

There is plenty of experience in the secondary that returns all starters from the 19th-ranked pass defense, though the status of CB Adonis Alexander is up in the air after an offseason arrest and suspension. There are other mainstays, however, in sr. FS Chuck Clark and soph SS Terrell Edmunds. Foster has more perplexing personnel questions in his front seven, especially at the LB spots where Foster could use jr. MLB Andrew Motuapuaka to emerge as a playmaker. ACC sources say Foster likes his options on the line, led by sr. DE Ken Ekanem and his 14 career sacks.

The highlight of the non-conference slate is a unique September 10 date at the massive Bristol Motor Speedway (you’re reading that right) against Tennessee. Attendance records for an eternity could be set in the 160,000-seat venue, which is roughly equidistant from each school. The Hokies also make a first-ever visit to Notre Dame on November 19, but the schedule misses all of the heavyweight asides (Clemson, Florida State, Louisville) from the Atlantic half of the loop. All of which making VPI a very intriguing ACC sleeper, especially if juco QB Evans turns into the sort of leader Fuente expects, and the new coach provides a spark.

Spread-wise, Beamer’s teams experienced a downturn the past few years, and the Hokies have not recorded a winning record vs. the number since 2010. Along the way, Lane Stadium sacrificed its one-time edge, with the Hokies only 8-16-1 vs, the line at home since 2011. Beamer’s teams, long successful in the underdog role, were also just 9-10-1 in that role since 2010. Note that Fuente’s Memphis squads were renowned for their spread success on the road, where they stood 13-6-1 vs. the number their last 20 as a visitor.

Looking for the great escape act of the offseason? Try North Carolina (2015 SUR 11-3; PSR 8-6; O/U 8-6), which didn’t even need FBI Director James Comey to recommend no prosecution from NCAA investigators who seemed to have the Tar Heel basketball and football programs in their gunsights. Where many observers saw careless and reckless behavior and gross negligence in what seemed a clear case of academic fraud, the NCAA instead blinked.

More specifically, in late April, the NCAA issued a new Notice of Allegations against UNC, theoretically taking into account the new allegations involving women's hoops and men's soccer. The soccer and women’s basketball teams figure prominently in the new document. Magically, however, the words "impermissible benefits," "football" and "men's basketball" no longer appear.

So, all NCAA conspiracy theorists, we have found Jerry Tarkanian's Holy Grail: The NCAA is so mad at the Carolina football and hoops teams, it's going to lower the boom on soccer and women’s basketball instead!

Indeed, what initially looked like an insignificant announcement, dumped in between Deflate-gate and Steph Curry's MRI results, actually was quite huge. The amended document (not an amendment, which is a significant semantics differentiation) left more than a few people who know the inner workings of the NCAA more than a little bit stunned. As one person put it via text, "Big win for UNC today."

Because somewhere in the past year, in what most assumed would merely be a reworking of the Notice of Allegations to include the new potential violations, the NCAA flat-out removed accusations against the school’s two flagship sports. In the meantime, know that that noise you might be hearing from Tobacco Road is probably Heel coaches Roy Williams and Larry Fedora doing a lot of celebrating.

(To be fair to Fedora, he walked into the Chapel Hill mess long after the reported academic fraud supposedly took place; Williams, not so much, and his innocence demands more review. We’ll get to all of this in a feature story sometime early in the football season.)

Whatever, 2015 was a revelation on the gridiron for the Heels, who rolled to the Coastal crown and had visions of crashing the Final Four before losing a wild ACC title game vs. Clemson by a 45-37 count in Charlotte. A subsequent 49-38 loss to high-powered Baylor in the Russell Atheltic Bowl took none of the gloss off of an 11-3 record that re-established the Heels as a gridiron force in the region.

Credit for the ascent must go in part to d.c. Gene Chizik, the former Auburn HC and decorated coordinator at a variety of other stops who assumed his role a year ago after the Heels fielded one of the worst defenses in the country in 2014. The Chizik stop unit allowed 62 ypg fewer and 14.5 ppg fewer than the previous year, as well as dropping its yards per play from 6.53 (ranking 117th in 2014) to 5.50 (ranking 58th in 2015). Though there remains room for upgrades after UNC was still way too ginger vs. the run (ranking 122nd nationally) while being near the bottom in ACC sacks and third-down stops. And in the losses to Clemson and Baylor, the Heels allowed almost 1400 combined yards, conceding a staggering 645 rush yards to the Bears in the bowl defeat (whew!).

Chizik’s defensive line and secondary return mostly intact, though at least five underclassmen are likely to see significant time in the rotations up front, where three starters return including DE Dajuan Drennon and DT Nazir Jones. Chizik must also replace playmaking LBs Shakeel Rashad and Jeff Schoettmer, though he reportedly likes the athleticism of the replacements. Three starters return to a secondary that contributed to an 18th ranking in pass defense, with a pair of All-ACC candidates at the CB spots in jr. M.J. Stewart and sr. Des Lawrence.

Fedora’s high-powered, fast-paced spread offense, imported from Southern Miss four years ago, posting some whopping numbers a year ago including 40.7 ppg, good for 9th nationally. Fedora lost some key contributors, including QB Marquise Williams, to graduation, but seven starters return, plus jr. QB Mitch Trubisky, who finally gets his shot after caddying for Williams the past two seasons.

Trubisky might not be as mobile as Williams, who gained 948 YR a year ago, but he can run, completed a stunning 85% of his passes and 6 TD throws in limited work last season, and is expected to forge a seamless transition at QB. Unless he goes down with injury, as there is no experienced cover behind him, a luxury that Trubisky afforded Fedora the past two seasons.

There is plenty of help around Trubisky, as RBs Elijah Hood (1463 YR in 2015) and T.J. Logan (6.1 ypc LY) form a powerful 1-2 punch on the ground, and sr. WRs Ryan Switzer (55 catches LY), Bug Howard (71 catches the past two seasons), and Mack Hollins (almost 25 yards per catch in 2015) are established targets. Four starters are also back along an OL that helped UNC rush for a school-record 5.96 ypc and allow an ACC-best 1.1 sacks per game.

Fedora’s team will have a chance to make an early statement when it faces Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic in Atlanta on opening weekend, though should be docked something for scheduling a pair of FCS foes (James Madison and The Citadel) in the non-conference part of the slate. The Heels travel to Tallahassee to face Florida State on October 1 but miss Clemson and Louisville from the Atlantic half of the loop. Along with a favorable second half of the schedule, and the fact Trubisky (if he stays healthy) should be little or no drop-off from Marquise Williams, the Heels should be in the mix for another Coastal crown, especially if the defense continues the improvement it displayed for Chizik last season.

Spread-wise, note that Fedora has delivered a 5-2 spread mark at Chapel Hill in three of the past four seasons. The Heels have also been offering good value the past two years as a true visitor, covering the number in six of their last eight chances, though they’re only 2-7 vs. the number their last nine vs. non-ACC teams (not counting a 2014 cover at pseudo-ACC member Notre Dame).

There wasn’t much warning about last season’s collapse for Georgia Tech (2015 SU 3-9; ATS 3-9; O/U 6-6), which had won the Orange Bowl in grand fashion the previous season over SEC Mississippi State and began 2015 scoring better than a point-per-minute in blowout wins over Alcorn State and Tulane. All of a sudden, however, just as happy Jackets fans were ordering another batch of chili dogs and frosted oranges at The Varsity across I-75/85, Tech seemed to get lost in one of the long TSA lines at Hartsfield International, dropping aggravating decision after aggravating decision.

Tech would briefly relocate its luggage in late October when knocking Florida State from the unbeaten ranks with a stirring win at Bobby Dodd Stadium/Grant Field when returning a deflected field goal for a TD on the final play, suggesting at a possible late-season rally. Which never happened as the Jackets would lose out to finish a startling 3-9. Being the best 3-9 team in the country was of little solace and a tremendous departure in form for Tech under HC Paul Johnson, whose personal bowl streak that dated to 2003 when at Navy was finally snapped. It was also revealing that the Engineers were still favored in nine of their twelve games last season despite the downturn.

Upon inspection, there were some explanations for the skid. The Jackets’ turnover margin was 18 worse than the previous season (from +11 to -7), reflected mainly in just 17 takeaways compared to 29 in 2014. The pass rush disappointed for d.c Ted Roof, registering just 14 sacks. Offensively, while the rush game again would characteristically rank in the top ten nationally, it was down to just 256 ypg, the lowest output of the Johnson era in Atlanta that began in 2008.

For the latter to improve, upgrades are needed across an OL that disappointed in 2015. Johnson has added a second OL coach, veteran Ron West, to help forge a recovery this fall, though a lot probably depends upon the return to healthy of key G Chris Griffin, who missed 2015 with an ACL injury and was mostly a bystander in spring. During spring, Johnson, who also saw starting G Gary Brown quit to start a cartoonist career in San Francisco, was shuffling all sorts of OL combinations before arriving at some satisfactory options that will require sophs Will Bryan and Trey Klock to deliver at the tackle spots.

Injuries and youth at the skill positions were also a problem last season, though after several runners and receivers were forced into action last fall, depth appears uncommonly good. Especially at the “A-back” spot which is further fortified with Georgia transfer J.J. Green and soph Qua Searcy, who was injured in the Notre Dame game last September. As a result, returning starter Ike Willis dropped down the depth chart in spring. Soph Clinton Lynch gained 9.5 ypc in limited work last fall and figures at the other “A-back” spot, while Marcus Marshall should man the “B” spot after gaining 654 YR as a frosh.

All of this ought to help sr. QB Justin Thomas, an electric option pilot earlier in his career but who struggled in 2015 when gaining only 3.4 ypc. Thomas, with five 100-yard rushing games in 2014, had zero of those a year ago. With a bit more help, expect Thomas to get back to his 2014 production levels. Passing remains just an occasional diversion in the Johnson option, but Thomas has been able to sneak the long pass downfield at times in the past, and leading returning WR Ricky Jeune (22 yards per catch on his 24 receptions LY) is capable of burning sleeping defenses.

Still, unless Roof coaxes some improvement from his defense, any upgrades from the “O” might go for naught after foes would short-pass the Jackets into submission a year ago. Lack of a credible pass rush was one major negative, and the loss of NT Adam Gotsis (NFL Broncos 2nd-round pick) removes the line’s best and most disruptive element. Still, ACC sources say Roof likes his options up front that include three returning upperclassmen starters. Junior DE K’Shaun Freeman might have NFL potential but needs to develop consistency.

Tech figures to have good stability in the middle of its 4-2-5 alignments thanks to sr. LB P.J. Davis, who has been the Jackets’ leading tackler each of the past two seasons. The bigger question is in the secondary, where young players are being pushed into lead roles around jr. nickel-back Lawrence Austin.

Tech has a chance to break quickly, facing rebuilding Boston College in Dublin, then hosting Mercer and Vanderbilt before ACC play starts. It gets tough in a hurry thereafter with Clemson and Miami visiting Atlanta, by which time we should have an idea if Johnson is going to be able to forge a significant rebound season to rival 2014. Given Johnson’s past successes, we wouldn’t bet against Tech at least becoming relevant again and getting back to a bowl, which had been de rigueur for Johnson teams prior to last season. We also aren’t buying the thought being floated by some ACC observers that the Johnson option offense is past its sell-by date and no longer catching foes by surprise, as conference foes are now keen to Johnson’s tricks. Only two years removed from an 11-3 mark and an Orange Bowl win, we’re certainly not ready to write off Johnson and the Jackets just yet.

Spread-wise, Johnson’s teams have been notoriously good as an underdog, and were 6-0 in that role as recently as 2014. As noted earlier, they only had three underdog chances a year ago, covering one of those, and we have learned never to underestimate a Johnson-coached team getting points. Tech dropped nine of its last ten both SU and vs. the line a year ago, but for the time being consider that an aberration.

It’s been a while since Miami-Florida (2015 SU 8-5; ATS 7-6; O/U 7-6) has resembled its old self from the glory era that lasted thru the early days of the Larry Coker regime. That, however, was more than a decade ago, and the subsequent downturn at the end of the Coker years carried into the ill-fated Randy Shannon regime and mostly continued for Al Golden, hired away from Temple amid lots of hoopla in 2011. The Canes, however, never ignited for Golden (who admittedly had to deal with the cloud of an NCAA investigation and school-imposed penalties in his first few years on the job in Coral Gables), and a 58-0 home loss to Clemson last October proved the last straw as Golden was canned right then and there, with a modest 32-25 SU mark his Miami legacy. The Canes finished the season under interim HC Larry Scott and won 4 of 5, including a wild, last-play kickoff-lateral special at Duke that made Cal-Stanford’s “The Play” from ‘82 look like kid’s stuff, but would lose the Sun Bowl in cold El Paso vs. Mike Leach’s Washington State.

Scott, however, was not seriously considered for the full-time appointment, which drew plenty of interest (reportedly including Auburn HC Gus Malzahn and Mississippi State HC Dan Mullen). Miami would indeed look to the SEC for the future, but rather than Malzahn or Mullen would opt for Mark Richt, recently dismissed at Georgia but a big winner for most of his career in Athens. More importantly, Richt is an alum of “The U” where he once played QB behind Jim Kelly for Howard Schnellenberger’s teams in the early ‘80s. So, it was a homecoming of sorts for Richt, a regional native whose familiarity with Schnellenberger’s old “state of Miami” figures to serve him well in his new appointment.

With a new staff in tow, Richt embarks upon his next challenge with an established roster that returns 16 starters from last year’s 8-5 record. Including jr. QB Brad Kaaya, regarded as a peripheral Heisman candidate after throwing for 3238 yards a year ago. The concern for Richt, as he articulated in spring, was depth, which, upon first impression, is not of the quality that Richt was used to in the SEC and at Georgia. Including at the QB spot, where there is no experienced cover for Kaaya. With upgrades needed across the OL, and the defense dominating in the trenches in spring, Richt is legitimately worried about proper protection for his prized QB.

Interestingly, in addition to his HC chores, Richt is going to assume play-calling duties, which he mastered almost a generation ago under Bobby Bowden at Florida State and retained at Georgia thru 2006. Improving a ground game that ranked 117th nationally will be the first order of business, so improvements along the OL are crucial, not just to protect Kaaya, but to open up holes for RBs jr. Joe Yearby (1002 YR in 2015), soph Mark Walton, and physical Gus Edwards, sidelined most of last season with foot problems. (Check the status of Walton, who appeared to be the featured back in spring but was suspended in April after a DUI arrest, and his availability for the fall remains in question.) Kaaya has an experienced and productive receiving corps at the ready, led by sr. wideout Stacy Coley (47 catches LY), who decided to bypass the NFL draft to return for one more college season, and three established TEs including rising star soph David Njoku.

Richt’s concern with the OL is too many guard-types and not enough tackle-types with agility. How Richt solves this dilemma goes a long way to any Miami successes this fall. Special teams hold more promise with jr. PK Michael Badgley, a Lou Groza Award semifinalist after connecting on 25 of 30 FGs a year ago, and return threat deluxe DB Corn Elder, who scored the TD as the last of the 8-lateral leg to beat Duke.

Richt completely cleaned house on the defensive side, junking Golden’s read-and-react principles and instead looking in a different direction with accomplished d.c. Manny Diaz, another Miami-area native and most recently at Mississippi State. Diaz prefers the 4-3 looks of the best Hurricane defenses of the Schnellenberger and Jimmy Johnson eras. That the “D” seemed ahead of the “O” in spring suggests that Diaz might be further along with the evolution of his platoon than Richt is with the offense. New DL coach Craig Kuligowski arrives from Missouri, which produced four NFL first-round picks since 2009.

Up front, ACC sources believe that DEs Al-Quadin Muhammad and Chad Thomas both have high-round NFL Draft potential. A key player to watch in the front seven will be soph WLB Darrion Owens, returning from major knee surgery. Touted newcomers at LB are expected to contribute right away alongside big-play sr. SLB Jermaine Grace. Their additions to an upgraded rush “D” will be welcome after the Canes were a bit soft vs. the run a year ago (ranking 103rd). If the Diaz defense has the characteristics of his past platoons at other locales, it will be blitz-happy, which will put some added pressure on the secondary. There are experienced contributors at the safety spots led by srs. Rayshawn Jenkins (with 22 career starts) and Jamal Carter, but the aforementioned CB Corn Elder is being counted upon to emerge as more of a playmaker after recording the only pick of Kaaya in spring.

The good news for Richt is that the slate sets up nicely for him to work the kinks out of his new systems in September, with FBS Florida A&M, nearby C-USA Florida Atlanta, and Sun Belt App State out of the chute. October, however, gets a lot tougher, with Florida State and North Carolina at home and Notre Dame and Virginia Tech on the road. But no Clemson or Louisville from the Atlantic side of the loop means the notorious front-running Miami fans will be disappointed if their team doesn’t make the ACC title game. No matter, we’re betting they don’t show up in big numbers at Sun Life Stadium, which has often been embarrassingly empty for Canes games in recent years, though keeping Kaaya healthy should give Miami a puncher’s chance in every game.

Spread-wise, there is room for improvement, as Miami mostly floundered in the Golden years, and Richt’s recent seasons at Georgia were nothing special vs. the line, either. Richt’s once stellar mark as an underdog downgraded significantly the past few seasons, just 3-8 his last 11 getting points with the Bulldogs. Within the Coastal, take note of recent Cane success vs. Georgia Tech, against which Miami has won and covered 6 of its last 7.

When the dust cleared last December, the beginning of the Pat Narduzzi era at Pittsburgh (2015 SU 8-5; ATS 6-7; O/U 6-7) looked an awful lot like the previous years for the Panthers under Paul Chryst, Todd Graham, Dave Wannstedt, and Walt Harris. Win a few more than lose, end up in a minor bowl, etc. etc. Pitt has seemingly perfected its role as the Atlanta Hawks of the ACC, who qualify for the playoffs almost every season but never seem to threaten for a championship...like the football Panthers.

For longtime Pitt followers, that’s still saying something, for there are some old enough to remember the dark days of the late ‘60s, when the program would collapse under HC Dave Hart. By 1968, the Panthers were bad enough to fall behind Notre Dame 49-0 at the half and prompt Irish HC Ara Parseghian to agree to play the final 30 minutes with a running clock. Though Pitt would begin a dramatic recovery a few years later after HC Johnny Majors arrived from Iowa State, the memory of the running clock at Notre Dame in ‘68 still haunts Pitt fans with long memories. Those sorts would be extra-appreciative when the program turned around and won a national title, with HB Tony Dorsett claiming the Heisman Trophy, in 1976. Can it really be 40 years since?

Fast forward to 2016, and it looks like more of the same from recent years for the Panthers. Good enough to cause some problems in the ACC Coastal and probably make another minor bowl. But a breakthrough, or something to remind of the glory years of four decades ago? Not likely.

Still, Pitt could author one of the best storylines of 2016 with the comeback of former star RB James Conner, who is expected to return to active duty after not only enduring MCL surgery after seeing action only in the 2015 opener vs. Youngstown State, but also offseason chemotherapy treatments for Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It might be a bit much to expect Conner to replicate his form from 2014, when he rushed for a whopping 1765 yards and 26 TDs en route to ACC Player of the Year honors. But the Panthers probably don’t need that sort of production from Conner because in his absence they uncovered another slammer, 230-lb. Qadree Ollison, who bulled for 1121 YR in Conner’s straight-ahead style last fall, winning ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in the process. The best of all worlds for Narduzzi and new o.c. Matt Canada (recently at NC State, and familiar to Narduzzi from previous Big Ten days at Wisconsin) would be a dynamite 1-2 combo with Conner and Ollison, perfect fits for Canada’s pro-style, power-based offense.

On the other hand, the Panther braintrust might need big work from the ground game because do-everything WR Tyler Boyd and his 91 catches from a year ago have moved to the NFL, where Boyd was a second-round pick of the Bengals. What scares Pitt fans is that even with Boyd and graduated TE J.P. Holtz, the passing game still ranked a poor 99th nationally, putting added pressure on sr. and former Tennessee transfer QB Nathan Peterman to find some other targets in the fall.

Peterman, a pure drop-back passer, would perform ably once he took over from 2014 starter Chad Voytik, passing for 2287 yards and 20 TDs. Boyd, however, was the ultimate safety blanket. The leftover receiver corps is mostly untested, and will hope sr. Dontez Ford (26 catches LY) can emerge as a post-Boyd go-to target. Three starters return along the OL, though we have to wonder if Narduzzi and Canada might opt for Dee Andros’ old “Power T” formation and overload the offense with RBs because of the questions surrounding the receiving corps.

Narduzzi, longtime d.c. for Mark Dantonio at Michigan State and Cincinnati, preached the same ultra-aggressive defensive philosophy last fall with the Panthers as he did with the Spartans and Bearcats, reflected in high sack totals (2.85 pg ranked 16th nationally). Fifteen different Pitt defenders recorded sacks last season! Nonetheless, even with eight starters back on the platoon, Narduzzi and d.c. John Conklin spent spring juggling positions and moving some players from offense to the stop unit, looking for proper fits.

One position they won’t adjust is that of sr. DE Ejuan Price, who recorded five sacks against Louisville alone. Nor will they tamper with soph SS Jordan Whitehead, who recorded the most tackles (109) for a frosh in school history and also lined up at CB, a LB spot, and even on offense, where he carried the ball 12 times for 122 yards and scored a pair of TDs. Still, the stop unit leaked on several occasions, including when Navy ran roughshod in the Military Bowl, and only generated 16 takeaways, ranking a poor 97th.

The schedule is daunting, with a renewal of the old rivalry vs. Penn State taking place at Heinz Field on September 10, followed by a trip to explosive Big 12 rep Oklahoma State. Other road trips to North Carlina, Miami, and Clemson likely see the Panthers in an underdog role and will make it a chore to climb much above .500. While there appear to be some things to like about this Pitt side, it seems better built to have succeeded back in the Johnny Majors (or Dave Hart) eras. Without a credible passing threat, it is hard to forge a breakthrough these days, and unless QB Peterman can effectively balance the offense, another minor bowl is probably the best the Panthers can do this fall.

Against the number, it's worth noting that Narduzzi has yet to turn Heinz Field into a fortress, as the Panthers covered just 1 of 6 at home last year. Pitt enters this fall having covered just 1 of its last 8 as host, though it has covered 6 of its last 8 as a visitor dating to the end of the Chryst regime.

One of the most curious offseason coaching moves was when longtime BYU HC Bronco Mendenhall left Provo for the rebuild job at Virginia (2015 SU 4-8; ATS 8-3-1; O/U 6-6), which finally pulled the overdue plug on the Mike London regime after four straight non-winning seasons. But why would Mendenhall leave BYU? And why would he want the Virginia job?

Sources say the answer to the first question is not hard, as BYU was playing cheap with Mendenhall, who won 99 games in 11 seasons with the Cougars and would have liked to have been paid a market rate for a coach with his credentials. BYU might also have been thinking it could call the bluff of Mendenhall, knowing he hadn’t left Provo when other suitors had come calling in the past. This time, however, Mendenhall was ready to move, and sources say that when BYU hemmed and hawed once more about significant contract upgrades, Bronco had enough and bolted for Charlottesville.

Now, there is a good question why Mendenhall would opt for the Wahoos after being courted by various other programs (including, reportedly, some Pac-12 schools, such as alma mater Oregon State, plus UCLA and Washington) in recent years. But many in the coaching fraternity are known to covet ACC jobs, which come with a bit less pressure than SEC or Big 12 assignments. Most programs can also win in the ACC, even ones with some academic restrictions such as Virginia. And when Cav AD Craig Littlepage gave Mendenhall predecessor London enough rope to repel down the Washington Monument, Mendenhall knew there would be only modest pressure to win for a few years. Coupled with a significant salary bump, and the pleasant Charlottesville locale a nice place to relocate his family, the move begins to make more sense.

Look for Mendenhall, a defensive specialist by trade, to make an immediate impact with the UVa stop unit despite the return of only five starters. Bronco, a disciple of Rocky Long, already switched alignments for the platoon in spring, opting for a straight 3-4 instead of the Long-influenced 3-3-5, but still junking the previous traditional 4-3 looks preferred by London. That also might be due to graduation of last year’s DL, and new starters having to step in up front. One of Bronco’s spring switches was once-touted jr. Andrew Brown moving from DT to a DE spot, where his skill-set seems better suited and where he might flourish.

There is more experience in Mendenhall’s inherited “back eight” especially at ILB where starters Zach Bradshaw and last year’s ACC tackle leader Micah Kiser still roam. The strength of the platoon would appear to be in the secondary, though the Cavs did rank a poor 97th in pass defense last season. Three starters return, including All-ACC FS Quin Blanding.

Mendenhall has also added to his defensive staff former East Carolina HC Ruffin McNeill, who had earlier in his career made a name for himself as a d.c., most notably at Texas Tech in the Mike Leach era.

The change theme in Wahoo-land continues on offense, where Mendenhall has brought along creative o.c. Robert Anae (with Texas Tech/Mike Leach era roots) from Provo to install a more aggressive offensive philosophy than the staid London. Holdover sr. QB Matt Johns (20 TDP LY) is not a great runner and will not give Anae as much flexibility as he had with recent BYU QBs (such as Taysom Hill), but getting the ball into the hands of playmakers such as RB Taquan “Smoke” Mizzell (671 YR LY plus 75 pass receptions) and a mostly-unproven but hungry group of wideouts, perhaps featuring spring sensation Doni Dowling, will be the focus. Johns, however, might have a tenuous grip on the job if he can’t decrease his painful 17 picks from a year ago, in which case East Carolina transfer Kurt Benkert could emerge. Three starters return on an all-upperclass OL.

Virginia can take no foes for granted, but the Cavs should be favored in three of their four non-ACC games (a long trip to Oregon the exception), and only Louisville among the three Atlantic heavyweights (no Florida State or Clemson) is on the slate. Getting to a bowl for the first time since 2011 might be a tall order, but expect Mendenhall to get the Cavs closer than they have been in recent years.

London would likely not have been moved out if based upon Virginia’s recent spread marks, which have been quite good (including 16-7-1 overall the past two seasons). The Cavs were also 9-1-1 their last 11 as a dog for London. Mendenhall has had generally good marks as a dog, too (12-7 in tole the past five seasons at BYU), a category that likely gets a good workout this fall in Charlottesville.

It can be argued that the job HC David Cutcliffe has done in recent years at Duke (2015 SUR 8-5; PSR 7-6; O/U 6-7) has been as good as any in the country. Even with the expanded bowl menu, getting the Blue Devils into the postseason four straight years is some accomplishment for a program that had been to four bowls the previous 57 years. Moreover, he has given Duke football a bit of a presence at the most basketball-centric of schools, with significant upgrades in the gridiron facilities including an overdue renovation of venerable Wallace Wade Stadium, which until recently had much the same look as it did when it hosted the lone Rose Bowl not played in Pasadena back in 1942, just a bit more than three weeks after the Pearl Harbor attack (which prompted the move from the west coast).

Cutcliffe, however, did not need Duke to establish his credentials, developed long ago in his days as the o.c. at Tennessee and his key role in the development of Peyton Manning, as well as bother Eli, who was at Ole Miss when Cutcliffe was the Rebel HC. Moreover, Cutcliffe seems to have won over hoops HC Mike Krzyzewski, not the easiest thing to do!

Cutcliffe’s magic touch, however, will be put to the test this fall. Only ten starters return from the team that won an exciting 44-41 Yankee Pinstripe Bowl vs. Indiana, the Blue Devils’ first bowl win since the 1954 team whipped Nebraska 34-7 in the Orange Bowl. Note that those ten starters also include sr. QB Thomas Sirk, whose status for the fall is up in the air after tearing his Achilles tendon in the offseason. Sirk, who passed for 2625 yards and ran for another 803 yards in 2015, would be an awful loss for the offense, which has no truly established cover. Redshirt soph Parker Boehme, who passed for 579 yards in a handful of relief appearances last fall, likely gets first crack at the job in Sirk isn’t available, though RS frosh Quentin Harris and Daniel Jones could enter the mix.

Do-everything Sirk was also the leading rusher a year ago, but Duke has some other established runners in sr. Jela Duncan (1575 career yards) and jr. Shaun Watson (1022 career YR). Returning wideouts T.J. Rahming and Anthony Nash combined for 75 catches in 2015. Tennessee transfer TE Daniel Helm was one of the star attractions in spring. Three starters return along the OL, including All-ACC RT Casey Blaser.

Duke’s ability to stay bowl-eligible in recent years also has had as much to do with defensive upgrades, as it has been a while since the Blue Devils resembled their old roadkill platoons. Still, they might miss departed A-A S Jeremy Cash, spending this summer in the NFL Panthers camp.

The 4-2-5 schemes of the Duke defense for co-coordinators Ben Albert and Jim Knowles call for playmakers like Cash at the safety spots, with upperclassmen such as returning starters Alonzo Saxton and Deondre Singleton now expected to step up their performance. Four starters do return in the secondary, including CBs Breon Borders and DeVon Edwards, who is considered a likely NFL draftee and also doubles as a lethal kick return threat (he’s taken six kicks back for scores in his career).

A key on the defense will be for the front to generate more pressure on opposing passers after a handful of those (including graduated North Carolina QB Marquise Williams, who passed for 494 yards and 4 TDs in the 66-31 bomb the Heels dropped on the Blue Devils last November 7) torched Duke a year ago. Senior DT. Joe Wolf is the lone returning starter up front, where some of last year’s rotation pieces, and redshirt frosh, will be asked to contribute right away.

The schedule opens with a layup vs. NC Central and a winnable game vs. Wake Forest before early litmus tests in the Midwest at Northwestern (which won at Durham last season) and Notre Dame. With few easy touches (not even Wake) in the ACC, and NC Central and perhaps Army the only non-conference gimmes, Cutcliffe is probably going to have to win some games as an underdog to get back to a bowl. And if the do-everything QB Sirk isn’t available, that job just got a lot tougher for Duke.

Spread-wise, Cutcliffe’s success in recent years at Durham finally waned a year ago when dropping the last three vs. the line at Wallace Wade Stadium; the Devils had covered 17 of their previous 24 at home. Overall, Cutcliffe had been 19-7-1 vs. the line in 2013-14 before slipping a bit to 7-6 a year ago. Since 2013, Cutcliffe is also 12-5 as an underdog.

ACC Win Total Prediction
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Duke OVER 5.5 (-110): This is the number I saw when South Point sent out its season win total openers. At 5Dimes.eu offshore, the Blue Devils are at six with the ‘over’ paying a nice +125 return. The Westgate doesn’t have a number for Duke yet, nor do several other offshores I checked.

This might be because a number of middle-of-the-pack schools in Power Five conferences aren’t on the board, or it might be due to the uncertain status of quarterback Thomas Sirk. Whatever the case, I’m good with ‘over’ 5.5 or six because I’m confident that David Cutcliffe’s team wins at least seven, possibly more.

The Blue Devils have won at least six in the regular season, which is all that matters for these sorts of bets, in four consecutive seasons. In fact, they’ve won 10, 9 and 7 over the last three years. Cutcliffe’s squad went 8-5 in 2015 after beating Indiana by a 44-41 count in a thrilling overtime battle at the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx. (Quick Reminder: Duke should’ve gone 9-4 last season if the replay officials would’ve accurately reversed Miami’s incredible walk-off kick return for a TD in which one UM player was clearly down before making a lateral.)

Duke returns 12 starters, six on each side of the ball. Sirk tore his Achilles in February, but Cutcliffe is so confident he’ll be ready for the season opener that he sent the senior signal caller to ACC Media Days. In 12 starts last year, Sirk completed 58.8 percent of his passes for 2,625 yards with a 16/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed for a team-best 803 yards and eight TDs, averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

If Sirk’s Achilles doesn’t cooperate, junior QB Parker Boehme has some experience. Boehme connected on 43-of-78 throws (55.1%) last year for 579 yards with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio. Like Sirk, he’s also a solid runner who rushed for 181 yards and five TDs while averaging 4.0 YPC.

RBs Jela Duncan (6.9 YPC) and Shaun Wilson (5.0 YPC) comprise a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield, while WRs T.J. Rahming and Anthony Nash are back in the fold after combining to catch 75 balls for more than 1,000 receiving yards.

On defense, Duke brings back five of its top seven tacklers. As for special teams, DeVon Edwards returned three kicks for TDs last season, while Wilson had another that went for 98 yards.

The schedule gets tougher with the addition of road games at Notre Dame and at Louisville (on a short week) in place of Tulane and Boston College. Nevertheless, I see four easy wins at home over North Carolina Central, Wake Forest, Virginia and Army.

I only see two games in which I’m extremely confident will be losses (at Notre Dame and at Louisville). That leaves us at 4-2 with six games left to get 2-3 wins (need 7 to cash ‘over’ 6 at +125 via 5Dimes.eu).

Duke will be an underdog at Northwestern, but it’s not as if that’s a game the Blue Devils can’t win. The Wildcats won 19-10 in Durham last year, but Duke was +56 in yardage and lost the turnover battle by one. On Oct. 29, Duke will visit The Flats in Midtown Atlanta to face Ga. Tech. Cutcliffe’s bunch won 31-25 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2014 and captured a 34-20 triumph over the Yellow Jackets at home last season. Sure, Duke is a likely underdog in both instances, but a win in either spot certainly isn’t out of the question.

The two remaining home games are against Va. Tech and North Carolina. Duke has played three straight nail-biters against the Hokies that have been decided by six combined points. Duke won 13-10 in Blacksburg as a 12.5-point road underdog in 2013. Then in 2014, Va. Tech slipped past the Blue Devils in Durham, 17-16. As a three-point underdog at Lane Stadium last season, Duke captured a 45-43 victory in four overtimes. The Blue Devils prevailed in the marathon contest despite being -3 in the turnover department.

Duke beat arch-rival UNC in 2012 and 2013, but the Tar Heels have won the last two meetings in blowout fashion. They’ll square off at Wallace Wade Stadium on a Thursday night, Nov. 10.

Duke closes the regular season with games at Pittsburgh and at Miami. The Blue Devils spanked the Hurricanes 48-30 in 2013, but lost in South Florida by a 22-10 count two seasons ago. As noted above, UM pulled out a miracle win last year on a crazy walk-off kick return that shouldn’t have been a touchdown. Duke held 440-391 and 34-21 advantages in totals yards and first downs, respectively. Obviously, it’ll be a huge revenge spot for the Blue Devils, who at least won’t have to deal with the stifling heat in a game played on Nov. 26 in Miami.

Since Pittsburgh joined the ACC, it has faced Duke three times. In ’13, the Panthers won a 58-55 decision at Duke. Then in ’14, the Blue Devils went to Heinz Field and collected a 51-48 triumph in double overtime. This year Duke will be looking to avenge a 31-13 home loss to Pitt from last season.

In conclusion, I trust Cutcliffe. I think Duke will have the head-coaching advantage in nine of its 12 games. I’ll call it a push when he matches wits with Brian Kelly of Notre Dame, Bobby Petrino of Louisville and Larry Fedora of UNC.

I think Duke goes 7-5 or better and we’ll cash this ‘over’ ticket.

The rest of the ACC

I think the ACC’s Atlantic Division will boil down to Clemson at FSU on Oct. 29. At this point in July, I give Clemson the slight edge based on the huge advantage I see at the QB position, one that I believe outweighs the fact that this game will be played in Tallahassee. I think Clemson will have the most explosive offense in the nation with QB Deshaun Watson, RB Wayne Gallman and a group of WRs that might be the best in the country (with the possible exceptions of the wideouts at Texas A&M and Alabama).

I think FSU goes 10-2, losing at Louisville in Week 3 and to Clemson. There are other games that will see the Seminoles tested and if they don’t get quality QB play, that 10-2 could easily turn to 9-3 or even 8-4. Jimbo Fisher’s team will get stern tests in Orlando against Ole Miss, at Miami in early October when the heat is still a major factor and against Florida at home in the regular-season finale. There’s two other potential testers – at South Florida the week after the game at Louisville and then UNC at home the following week.

Clemson won’t go undefeated. I’ll call for its loss to come at Ga. Tech on a Thursday night. The Tigers have dropped five in a row to the Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd. They last tasted victory on The Flats in 2003.

Louisville will be a Top-20 team, but it will lose at Clemson and at Houston. I think Petrino’s squad will get tripped up once more somewhere Obviously, it could be against FSU, but I’m calling for the U of L upset there. Therefore, I’ll say the Cardinals go down at Boston College on Nov. 5.

Speaking of BC, it is the only other Atlantic school I have going bowling. I think the Eagles, based on immense improvement from the QB position that’ll be provided by Kentucky grad transfer Patrick Towles, will finish 7-5.

I think the ACC Coastal teams are going to beat each other up all year. The winner will likely have at least two conference defeats. Miami and UNC are the front runners. Going off the odds at 5Dimes.eu, if you wager the same amount on the Hurricanes (+190) and Tar Heels (+375), you’ll earn a profit (and a nice one if it’s UNC) if one of those schools makes it to the ACC Championship Game. I think it’ll be Miami, which has stunningly NEVER made it to the ACC Championship Game since its inception in 2005.

ACC Betting Outlook
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

ACC Coastal Preview

In several recent seasons there have been some underwhelming ACC Coastal champions but last season North Carolina raised the bar for the division going 8-0 and giving Clemson a great battle in the championship game.

The Coastal won the ACC Championship four straight seasons from 2007-2010 but the Atlantic has been the powerhouse since and that is expected to be the case this season. There are a few Coastal squads with a chance to make some noise however.

FAVORITE: Miami, FL

The Hurricanes have failed to reach the double-digit win count that the stature of the program commands in 12 straight seasons. Mark Richt will be the fourth Miami head coach in that run and after sustained success at Georgia for 15 years he returns to his alma mater. The Hurricanes have the potential to have a strong 2016 season as the team will have a less demanding non-conference schedule than in several recent seasons and the ACC slate also lines up reasonably well. Miami won’t play Clemson or Louisville and the meeting with Florida State will be at home. A team that is just 4-7 in road games the past two seasons should have a chance to have stronger road results this season even though they have games in Blacksburg and South Bend in back-to-back October weeks. Miami’s roster is loaded with talent and experience on offense and the defense should have the opportunity to improve after a step-back 2015 season. Despite the coaching change Miami still wound up 8-5 last season with a 5-3 ACC record and the three conference losses came against teams that went a combined 23-1 in the ACC regular season.

CONTENDER: North Carolina

North Carolina went 8-0 in ACC play last season before losing in the championship game but they did draw a favorable path pulling NC State and Wake Forest from the Atlantic. Wake Forest is traded for Florida State this season but the Tar Heels are still a serious contender in this division. Three of North Carolina’s conference road wins came by slim margins last year and two of the four road games appear to be of the very difficult variety this season. A tough opening two weeks is also ahead with the Tar Heels facing Georgia and Illinois in non-conference action away from home and for a squad with a new quarterback and several departures on defense it will be difficult to match last season’s 11-3 campaign. North Carolina still allowed 436 yards per game last season and in the final four games of the season including the bowl loss to Baylor the Tar Heels surrendered 155 points as the defense will need to show improvement to keep UNC on top of the division.

SLEEPER: Virginia Tech

It will be a transition season with Justin Fuente replacing the legendary Frank Beamer for Virginia Tech. Fuente had a successful four-year run at Memphis and he has kept much of the defensive staff in tact from Beamer’s administration. The Hokies have two extremely difficult non-conference games as getting back to the national spotlight looks unlikely in 2016 but in Coastal division where 6-2 might be enough Virginia Tech has a promising opportunity to be in the mix. Virginia Tech draws Boston College and Syracuse from the Atlantic as they will avoid the heavyweight ACC contenders and while they have a few difficult road games in the division, the program has featured a winning road record in six of the last seven seasons. Fuente should be able to improve on a surprising 5-8 record in Blacksburg the past two seasons and keeping a long bowl streak for the program looks very realistic with the Hokies a possibility to emerge in the ACC race.

IMPROVED: Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets went from going 11-3 in 2014 to just 3-9 last season and Paul Johnson’s ninth-season in Atlanta looks likely to be a bounce-back campaign. Despite the ugly record the Yellow Jackets outscored their opposition on the season but wound up with six losses by eight or fewer points. A rise back to the top of the Coastal looks unlikely as they face a difficult conference road schedule, although one break is only facing three true ACC road games with the meeting with Boston College to open the season being played in Ireland. Facing Clemson as well as tough non-conference games with Vanderbilt and Georgia could temper the success to only modest improvement in 2016 but with a decent group of returning players getting back to the bowl picture looks realistic. The 2015 defense for Georgia Tech was significantly stronger statistically than the far more successful 2014 defense but the offense took a big step back and there is room for a step forward in 2016.

SINKING: Pittsburgh

The Panthers have had some tough luck with its coaching staffs bolting in recent years and after three seasona Paul Chryst left for the Wisconsin position prior to last season. Pat Narduzzi wound up having a successful first season with the Panthers going 8-5 in 2015 even after a disappointing bowl loss for the best Pittsburgh season since 2010, the year the team relieved Dave Wannstedt. The Panthers have decent experience returning on both sides of the ball in 2016 but a decline may be possible as the non-conference schedule will be upgraded with three formidable games ahead. In ACC play the Panthers also pick-up a road game with Clemson while also facing two top Coastal contenders North Carolina and Miami on the road. Four of six ACC wins last season came by seven or fewer points for Pittsburgh and on the season the Panthers barely had a positive point differential despite the solid record. Ultimately a lot went right for Pittsburgh last season and the 2016 squad looks like one that might teeter right on the bowl cut line.

ACC Atlantic Preview

The ACC Atlantic has produced five straight ACC champions with three Florida State titles in succession bookended by a Clemson title in 2011 and last season, with the Tigers and the 2014 Seminoles also making it to the College Football Playoff.

Those two teams appear to be the heavy favorites in 2016 with the October 29 meeting likely deciding this division, as well as deciding the likely ACC title favorite and a serious national contender.

FAVORITE: Florida State

While Clemson returns one of the top Heisman Trophy candidates in quarterback DeShaun Watson, Florida State should be consider the favorite in 2016 in the Atlantic. The Seminoles return nearly its entire offense from last season and the defense has a chance to improve for the second straight season and get closer to the numbers posted in 2013’s BCS Championship season. The schedule is far from easy with an opener in Orlando vs. Ole Miss plus road games at Louisville and at Miami but Florida State will host Clemson as well as the season finale with Florida. The Seminoles have enough weight in their schedule to be a national playoff contender even if they take a loss at some point provided they still win the division and the subsequent ACC title game with the Atlantic champion poised to be a solid favorite over whatever team emerges from the Coastal division.

CONTENDER: Clemson

The path for Clemson into the national picture might be more favorable as if the Tigers get by a tough opening game with Auburn on the road as they should be a solid favorite in every other game except for the huge late October clash in Tallahassee. While Dabo Swinney will return a good portion of the offense that led the team to a 14-1 season and runner-up finish in the College Football Playoff, the defense has some serious question marks. For the second straight season only a few starters return and despite the success last season, statistically the 2015 squad was much worse defensively than the 2014 team that suffered three losses. While the schedule will give Clemson a good shot at a sixth straight double-digit win season the two biggest games of the season are road games. The Coastal draw for the Tigers is more favorable than Florida State’s pull but ultimately it is hard to see the Atlantic champion not being the winner of the Clemson/Florida State game and the Tigers have won in Tallahassee once in 12 meetings since 1993.

SLEEPER: Louisville

The Cardinals were considered a national sleeper by some last season but they opened the season 0-3. Losing to Auburn proved to be a less impressive showing than expected last season but Houston and Clemson wound up being teams that combined to go 27-2 last season and Louisville lost those two games by three-points each. Bobby Petrino has an experienced roster and after juggling quarterbacks last season there should be more continuity for the offense this season. Louisville will play Florida State at home early in the season but there are tough road games ahead including challenging non-conference games with Marshall and Houston. In the Atlantic Louisville could have a chance however as they draw Duke and Virginia from the Coastal division and if they can score an upset over one of the top two teams they could have a chance to sneak into the division race even if running the table and being a player in the national picture looks unlikely.

IMPROVED: Wake Forest

After growing a Bowling Green program that has had continued success, Dave Clawson took a challenging job at Wake Forest before the 2014 season. Back-to-back 3-9 campaigns have been difficult but in his third season in Winston-Salem he will have a veteran roster and a schedule that should allow for improvement. The Demon Deacons figure to be favored in three of four non-conference games while ACC home games with Syracuse, Virginia, and Boston College are games Wake Forest should have a reasonable chance in even with a 2-14 combined record in the conference the past two seasons. Four of the team’s losses came by eight or fewer points last season and getting the program to a bowl game for the first time since 2011 looks like realistic possibility.

SINKING: NC State

While Jacoby Brissett didn’t wind up with quite the career some envisioned as a highly touted Florida transfer he was still a great college quarterback that will be missed for the Wolfpack. NC State has been in back-to-back owl games under Dave Doeren but each the past two seasons has featured 4-0 starts to the season through very weak non-conference schedules. This season NC State is hosting Notre Dame while also playing at known ACC upset-maker East Carolina as getting two thirds of the way to bowl eligibility in non-ACC games is unlikely this season. Add that NC State has pulled formidable Miami and North Carolina teams from the Coastal draw while also playing two of the three projected top Atlantic teams on the road it could be a challenging year in Raleigh. Doeren is just 6-18 in ACC play in three seasons and the Wolfpack will likely be dogged in at least five of eight ACC games this season.

ACC Atlantic Division Future Wagers
By ASAWins.com

Boston College – UNDER 6.5 Wins

Last year BC won 3 of their first 4 games and then proceeded to drop their final 8 games going 0-8 in the ACC. Offense was a major issue for this team. They scored 100 points in the first two games vs Maine & Howard and then proceeded to score 106 the REST OF THE SEASON! They averaged 17 PPG on a measly 276 YPG but as you can see, those numbers were definitely skewed by the first 2 games. This team never topped 17 points in ACC play last year. The sad part is, their defense was very good and with even an OK offense the Eagles would have been a solid team. Defensively they allowed just 15 PPG on 254 YPG which led the nation. They shut down a number of potent offenses including holding Florida State to 14 and Notre Dame to 19. The defense should again be top notch with 17 of their top tacklers back. The offense can’t be any worse so we’d expect at least a slight improvement. Former Kentucky QB Patrick Towles looks like he will be the starter this year and while he wasn’t great, he should be better than last year’s QB situation (4 different players all throwing for less than 500 yards and combining for only 8 TD’s). They have 4 winnable home games vs Wagner, Buffalo, Syracuse, and UConn but even if they sweep those games, they still need 3 more to get over this number. We don’t see them beating Clemson or Louisville here, so that means 3 wins away from home. BC will be improved but 6-6 looks like the ceiling to us.

Clemson – OVER 10 Wins

The Tigers won 14 games last year and we’re not sure they’ll be much of a fall off, if any, this year. They have now won 10 games (bowls included) in 5 straight seasons and we don’t see that changing in 2016. Their offense will truly be lights out. They averaged almost 39 PPG last year and with nearly everyone back we look for them to top 40 PPG this season. They have the top QB in the country returning in DeShaun Watson. They also return their top RB (Gallman), their top WR (Scott) and also get WR Mike Williams back from injury and he was an all-conference caliber player 2 years ago. The defense has only 4 starters back but they were able to play a lot of players last year to generate depth and experience. Many of those “non-starters” from last year that step into starting roles have played a lot of football. Their ACC schedule sets up perfectly for another big year. They have 4 conference road games and besides their trip FSU, their other games are @ Georgia Tech, @ Wake, and @ BC, teams who combined for a 2-23 conference record last season. Thus, their tough ACC games are all at home, except FSU. We fully expect this team to be 10-2 at worst with a great shot at 11-1 or even 12-0.

Florida State – OVER 9.5 Wins

FSU is always loaded with talent and this year it’s experienced talent. They return 10 starters on offense (really 11 and we’ll get to that in a second) and 6 starters on defense. They also bring back 57 letterwinners and lose only 15 from last year’s 10-3 team. They should be fantastic on both the offensive and defensive lines which is where games are won and lost. The offense should be fantastic with Dalvin Cook back at RB (1,700 yards rushing), every receiver returning, and a QB Sean Maguire who started a number of games last year. The only “starter” they lost on that side of the ball was QB Everett Golson who actually had an off year and was replaced at times by Maguire who may not even start this year. The defense has allowed less than 20 PPG in 5 of the last 6 years and we expect the same again in 2016. The schedule definitely has some landmines including road games @Miami and @Louisville, home games vs Clemson and North Carolina, and a neutral site game vs Ole Miss to open the season. This team is loaded but the schedule as you can see is tough. We see a 10-2 season, however 3 losses wouldn’t be a huge surprise thus a slight lean only to the OVER here.

Louisville – OVER 9 Wins

The Cards should be really good this year. They bring back 17 starters from a team that was 7-5 in the regular season last year. We think they improve that by at least 2 games which would push this number and possibly 3 getting them to 10-2 overall. The offense averaged 28 PPG and if QB Lamar Jackson improves his passing (54% completions last year) the Cards should push that number well into the 30’s as Jackson is also a dynamic runner. Every skill player of significance is back. All of the RB’s and all of the WR’s. They return just under 100% of their total yardage from last year (99.8% to be exact) which is tops on the nation. After allowing just 12 PPG in 2013, the defense has slipped back a bit as expected. They’ve allowed 21 PPG & 24 PPG each of the last 2 seasons. We think this year’s defensive unit has a chance to be very good and we wouldn’t be surprised if they allow less than 20 PPG this year. Louisville has 2 marquee games this year at home vs Florida State and @ Clemson. After that, the schedule is really quite manageable and they should be favored in every other game. Head coach Bobby Petrino is a proven winner (100-39 career record) and we think 3 losses is probably a max this year giving the Cards at least 9 wins. Even if they lose to both FSU & Clemson, the chances of running the remainder of the table are pretty good which would get them to 10 wins.

NC State – UNDER 6 Wins

Last year’s NCSU team won 7 games and our feeling is this team is at least a game worse and possibly 2. The Pack had a winning record last year but they were over rated. They didn’t beat a single team with a winning record. Offensively they lost QB Jacoby Brissett (2,500 yards passing & 20 TD’s) and offensive coordinator Matt Canada who is now with Pitt. Canada led last year’s NC State offense to their highest point total (33 PPG) which was their highest output since 2003. The new offensive coordinator is from Boise State and he brought a transfer QB with him in Ryan Finley who was underwhelming in his time with the Broncos. Finley may start this year for the Pack but at the very least, the QB situation is unsettled. The defense has gotten better each of the last 3 years but will have to be really good this season to make up for what we think will be a fairly big step back offensively. The non-conference schedule last year was ridiculously easy as NC State began the season 4-0, all easy wins. This year they add Notre Dame and a game @ East Carolina to the ledger. On top of that, they have ACC road games @ Clemson, @ Louisville, and @ UNC. This team will definitely regress this year and we think by at least 2 full games making the UNDER the play here.

Syracuse – NO OPINION – 4 Wins

Another program with a new coach in place meaning new schemes on both sides of the ball. Depending on the talent already in place, it usually takes a year or two for teams to hit their stride after hiring a new coach. That will most likely be the case with the Cuse who have just 3 winning seasons in the last decade. New coach Dino Babers has proven his teams are very good offensively. His Bowling Green team averaged 30 PPG in his first year and jumped all the way up to 42 PPG last season. The Orange offense improved by a full 10 PPG last year averaging 27 PPG after putting up only 17 PPG in 2014. With Babers running the offense and a solid corps of veterans returning, we wouldn’t be at all surprised if the new up tempo offense put up 30+ PPG this season. The problem is, the fast paced offense can also affect the defense in a negative way. We can expect the Syracuse defense to face many more offensive plays this season which could cause a “wear down” issue. That won’t be good as this stop unit already allowed 31 PPG on 440 YPG last year. We would expect the offense to be better and the defense to be worse this year. Last year the Orange started 3-0 and then didn’t win another game until the season finale. We think the schedule sets up for them to finish 4-8 again this year so no opinion for us on this one.

Wake Forest – OVER 5.5 Wins

This year’s WF total is set a full 2 games higher than last year’s. The Deacs won only 3 games a year ago and quite frankly their offense was terrible. They averaged just 17 PPG and failed to top 17 points in 8 of their 12 games. The offense has failed to average 20 PPG in 4 straight seasons so this is an ongoing problem. With head coach Dave Clawson now in his 2nd year and his systems in place, we look for a solid improvement offensively this season. Not to mention the Demon Deacons bring back 9 starters including QB John Wolford who improved as the season went on and threw for 338 yards in the season finale. Wake’s defense was fairly decent but seem to simply wear down as a result of an offense that couldn’t sustain drives and give their defense a rest (averaged only 16 first downs per game in ACC play). Over the first 6 games, the Wake defense allowed only 17 PPG. However, in the 2nd half of the season they were torched for an average of 32 PPG. Their entire defensive line returns so they should be strong in the trenches. This unit should improve on their 24 PPG average which was actually very solid looking at the circumstances. The schedule is an advantage for Wake this year. Their ACC cross over games are vs Virginia & Duke, two of the lower-tier teams in the ACC Coastal. Five of their first six games are against teams that finished last year’s regular season at .500 or lower and they get both Army & BC at home in the 2nd half of the season. We think 6-6 is very realistic for Wake Forest this year.

ACC Coastal Division Future Wagers
By ASAWins.com

Duke – UNDER 5.5 Wins

This is really a tough call because the Devils have a huge unknown at QB. Last year’s starter Thomas Sirk (2,600 yards passing, 800 yards rushing) tore his Achilles tendon in February and while he’s targeting a September return, we really don’t know when he’ll be back if at all. Duke won 7 games with Sirk at the helm last year but we think they’ll struggle this year if he isn’t able to play at 100%. Despite winning 7 games the Blue Devils were -45 YPG in league play telling us they probably weren’t quite as good as their record. They won 3 tight games vs Army, Wake, and Virginia Tech, games that could have gone either way. Their losses, with the exception of one, were all by 9 points or more (2 full scores). Offensive they lose their top RB and top WR. Their offensive line is also in rebuild mode so we can see this offense averaging 30+ PPG as they did last year, especially if Sirk is out. The defense has never been great allowing 400+ yards in 5 of their last 6 years with last year being the only exception at 395 YPG. The schedule is very tough with 6 road games. We see only one as a “winnable” road game and that is @ Georgia Tech. Maybe @ Northwestern. Again, this is a very small lean to the UNDER because of the Sirk situation. We’ll call for a 5-7 season from Duke.

Georgia Tech – OVER 6.5 Wins

The Jackets are undervalued coming into the season due to their 3-9 record last year. They were dead last in the ACC Coastal with just a 1-7 record. However, let’s not forget this team won the ACC Coastal the year before with a 6-2 mark. Tech lost 6 games by 8 points or less and they beat Florida State for one of their wins in 2015. This team was definitely better than their record last year and that should show up in their 2016 results. This team is always one of the top rushing teams in the country. Last year the dropped to “just” 256 YPG on the ground after averaging 342 the year before. With everyone in the backfield returning including QB Justin Thomas, those rushing numbers should rise this year. The defense improved last year by almost 50 YPG so if they can simply stay where they were, this team’s win total should shoot up. The Jackets play only 3 true ACC road games and only 4 true road games overall this season. Their first true roadie doesn’t come until October 8th so Georgia Tech could pick up some much needed momentum and confidence early in the year. We’ll call for a 7-5 mark putting them just over the posted total.

Miami – OVER 6.5 Wins

We think the Canes come into this season a bit undervalued. They won 8 regular season games last year and return many of their key players yet this total is set at just 6.5. Mark Richt is the new man in charge after a very successful 15 year run at Georgia. He will call the plays on offense and he’ll have a lot to work with. QB Brad Kaaya is back for his 3rd year as starter and he’ll be one of the top signal callers in the nation. Kaaya will set up behind an offensive line that returns all 5 starters and will have the use of a RB that topped 1,000 yards (Joseph Yearby). Defensively Miami was talented but disappointing last year. They allowed over 400 YPG and 28 PPG. Richt always seemed to have solid defenses @ UGA and his defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, was at Mississippi State last year and had the Dogs allowing just 23 PPG in the rugged SEC. The ACC schedule makers did the Canes a favor as they dropped Clemson this year and added NC State. They did add Notre Dame to the non-conference slate which is not a plus. Miami should cruise to a 3-0 start and then they start the ACC schedule with a winnable game @ Georgia Tech with 2 weeks off to prepare. After a tough stretch in October, they close out the year with 4 games they could and probably should win. This total of 6.5 is too low. We see Miami as an 8 win team again this year.

North Carolina – OVER 8.5 Wins

UNC went 11-1 last year before losses to Clemson in the ACC Championship game and Baylor in the bowl game dropped them to 11-3. We felt they were a bit over rated as they only outgained their opponents by 50 YPG and had a very easy schedule. Their lone regular season loss was to South Carolina who finished just 1-7 in the SEC. This year they replace the Gamecocks with Georgia and also must travel to Illinois giving them a tougher non-conference slate. The ACC schedule has Florida State on it this year replacing Wake Forest from last season. However, with that being said, we feel this year’s team is good enough to get to 9 or 10 wins. Even if they lose games to Georgia (neutral site), @ Miami, and @ FSU, the Heels will still be favored in every other game. The offense is stocked. They set a school record averaging 40 PPG last year and we expect similar results this year with everyone back except Williams at QB. However, the new signal caller Mitch Trubisky is talented and has some solid experience throwing for 1,000 yards and 11 TD’s the last 2 seasons. The OLine starts 4 seniors and will be the most experienced in the ACC. With an offense that potent, the defense doesn’t have to be great and they weren’t allowing 436 YPG last year. UNC is experienced up front on defense and in the back 4 so we look for them to be slightly better this year. If they can win one of their “big 3” games which is definitely possible, the Heels can be a 10 win team in 2016.

Pittsburgh – OVER 7 Wins

Pitt finished with 8 regular season wins last year and they aren’t getting the respect they deserve as the oddsmakers set this year’s total at 7. We fully expect this year’s Panther team to be better than last season’s squad. First of all, on offense, they return pretty much everyone including QB Nathan Peterman who gathered some very valuable experience last year. He will operate behind a very good offensive line. The running game was solid last year averaging almost 190 YPG but should easily top 200 this year with All American candidate James Conner back (1,800 yards rushing in 2014) cancer free and recovered from a knee injury. Add Conner to last year’s leading rusher Qadree Ollison (1,200 yards last season) and you have quite a tandem. The Panthers should easily top last year’s 28 PPG and 377 YPG averages. The defense was OK allowing 26 PPG but watch for a big improvement in head coach Pat Narduzzi’s 2nd year. He’s a defensive mastermind who ran Michigan State’s defenses before taking the Pitt head job last season. Last year Pitt’s regular season losses came at the hands of Iowa, UNC, Notre Dame, and Miami, and all were close. The first 3 teams on that list combined for a 33-8 record last season. The Panthers have some tough road games this season but we think they have a decent shot at 9 wins.

Virginia – UNDER 4.5 Wins

The Cavs hope to head a new direction under first year head coach Bronco Mendenhall who came over from BYU. Virginia has had only one winning season since 2007 while Mendenhall had a career record of 99-43 @ BYU. He has some decent talent and experience to work with on offense led by senior QB Matt Johns (2,800 yards passing last year) and senior RB Taquan Mizzell (700+ yards rushing last year). However, they will be running a brand new system which can be tough on seniors who’ve run it a certain way up to this point and now must make a change in their final season. Defensively UVA was bad last year. They allowed 412 YPG and just over 32 PPG. Every team they played last year scored at least 21 points with half their opponents topping 30. Mendenhall will run the defense just as he did at BYU where his teams allowed 22 PPG or less in 6 of the last 7 seasons. Virginia plays half of their games on the road this year (6) and that’s not a good sign for a team that is 1-18 their last 19 road games. Many of their home games are very tough including tilts with UNC, Pitt, Louisville, and Miami, all potential losses. We see this team struggling again, especially with new systems on both sides of the ball. Four wins max for Virginia this year.

Virginia Tech – UNDER 6.5 Wins

After a rolling up an impressive 53-11 ACC record during his first 7 years in the conference, former head coach Frank Beamer was just 16-16 in conference play over the last 4 years. Beamer has been replaced by former Memphis head coach Justin Fuente who took a Tiger team that was 5-31 in the 3 years prior to him arriving and turning them into a 10-3 team just 3 years later in 2014 (9-4 last year). He takes over a Hokie team that was just 6-6 in the regular season last year but lost 4 of their 6 games by a TD or less. The offense averaged 31 PPG and returns almost everyone, except their QB. The key this year will be who takes over at QB and how they perform. Everything else should be in place for a solid season on offense. The defense last year was not up to Hokie standards. They allowed 26 PPG which was the first time since 2003 that Tech gave up more than 23 PPG. They bring back 7 starters and 9 of their top 12 tacklers. The big key is they also return defensive coordinator Bud Foster who is one of the best in the business and stayed on board with Fuente. With all of that being said, the schedule makers made it tough on Tech this year. They have road games @ UNC, @ Pitt, @ Notre Dame and a “neutral site” game with Tennessee in Bristol, TN all probable losses. We think Fuente is a very good coach and will have this team very good again, very quickly. They are probably a year away. We’ll call for another 6-6 mark.