ACC Football Preview
By Marc Lawrence
One of only two conferences (along with the SEC) with five teams in the preseason Top 25, the ACC will brace itself in 2010 when they take on the toughest schedule in the nation against opponents that compiled a winning percentage of .604 last year. In fact, only the PAC 10 of the traditional ‘Big Six’ conferences faced opponents who won more than 50 percent of their games in 2009.
Let’s make this clear: this conference takes a back seat to none when it comes to stocking the NFL as, over the last four years, the ACC has led all conferences in terms of most players selected in the first-round of the NFL Draft (30).
And it doesn’t stop there. Miami was one of only two teams (along with Notre Dame) honored this year by the AFCA as having the highest graduation rates in its football program of any schools in the nation, graduating 100% of their players for the class of 2002. It was the first time Miami has been honored.
It’s all cash-and-carry in 2010 as, for the first time in ACC history, five 1,000-Yard Rushers return. And with Virginia Tech – the top defensive team in the land since 2004 - anchoring this loop, there is a lot to like about the ACC.
Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
Atlantic Division
BOSTON COLLEGE – *8/6
TEAM THEME: FOOL US ONCE
Thanks to a defense that ranked 14th against the run and 19th in total points allowed, the Eagles surpassed all expectations in 2009. Picked to finish last in the ACC Atlantic Division, the Eagles rewarded their backers with an eight-win season and an Emerald Bowl appearance. That was without 2008 defensive player of the year Mark Herzlich, who sat out the entire season with bone cancer. Herzlich is back and he joins ACC defensive rookie of the year Luke Kuechly, who led the conference in tackles per game, to anchor a solid linebacking corps. The defensive effort was really no surprise considering HC Frank Spaziani’s roots. In fact, the winning season should have come as no surprise as Virginia Tech is the only ACC team with more wins than BC over the past four seasons. Another winning season in Chestnut Hill? Don’t be surprised. PLAY AGAINST: vs. NC State (10/9
CLEMSON – *7/6
TEAM THEME - HOPE ‘SPILLERS’ OVER
When a team loses a star RB like C.J. Spiller to the 1st round of the NFL draft, along with its top three WR’s from the previous season, it generally spells doom. Especially when that team goes toe-to-toe with no less than seven bowlers from the previous season. But Dabo Swinney is not a doomsayer and he refuses to believe his team is primed to take a step back from last year’s nine-win effort. Swinney, in fact, sees the glass being more than half full, noting four of his top five tacklers from last year’s swarming defense are back. So is QB Kyle Parker, who won nine games as a redshirt freshman last season, including a Music City Bowl win over Kentucky. It’s obvious Swinney is from the Brylcreem school of coaching – he believes ‘a little dab will do ya.’ Another nine-win season? Now wouldn’t that be debonair! PLAY AGAINST: vs. Florida St (11/13)
FLORIDA STATE - *10/6
TEAM THEME: JIMBO-LAYA
It’s official: legendary coach Bobby Bowden has finally retired and will now be working full-time on his great-grandfathering skills as he hands the keys over to Jimbo Fisher. Fisher needs to improve on a recipe that has seen the Seminoles go 16-16 in ACC play over the last four seasons. QB Christian Ponder returns for his senior season after a shoulder injury ended his 2009 campaign after nine games. Despite the early exit, Ponder still led the ACC in total offense and with nearly the entire offensive starting cast back, don’t be surprised to see the exciting QB on more than a few Heisman ballots. With five Top 25 foes dotting this season’s schedule, including road trips to Norman and Miami, it may just take a Heisman-like effort for the Cracker Barrel folks to forget about ol’ Bobby. PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida (11/27)
MARYLAND – 7/5
TEAM THEME: SHELL-SHOCKED
After racing out to a 31-7 record in his first three years, it’s been a slow demise for Ralph Friedgen seeing that his Turtles have posted four losing seasons in the last six years. A season-ending seven-loss skein sealed their 2009 fate and as a result, snapped a three-year bowl streak. Despite a scoring and pass defense that was the worst in the ACC last year, half of the Terrapins’ 10 losses were by a meager 3.4 PPG. Thus, there’s still some hope in College Park – but a slimmed-down ‘Fridge’ will have to start serving up more victories in order to satisfy the faithful. The Terps will rely on RB Da’rel Scott (one of five 1,000-yard rushers returning to the ACC this season) to pick up the pace. A mid-season stretch that finds them on the road in four of five games will likely decide if these Turtles can sprint to the finish. PLAY ON: as DD dog vs. Clemson (10/16)
NORTH CAROLINA STATE – *7 5
TEAM THEME: DANCING WITH THE STARS
Along with Buffalo, NC State is the only FBS team in the nation that improved its numbers on both sides of the ball while declining both SU and ATS in 2009. That almost always signals improvement the following season. Thus, we’ll be dancing with these Wolves – especially with QB Russell Wilson donning the cleats. The junior has tossed for 48 TD’s and run for eight others in his two seasons at Raleigh and is on course to break all of Philip Rivers’ records. His dance partner is WR Owen Spencer, who broke the ACC record for the second straight year in yards per reception (25.5 – tops in the nation). The choreographer of this group is HC Tom O’Brien. O’Brien, himself, has stepped on some toes along the way, posting an 84-65-2 overall ATS mark, including 56-38-1 ATS in conference play and 17-2-1 ATS versus foes off back-to-back ATS wins. We like those moves. PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (10/28)
WAKE FOREST – 6/7
TEAM THEME: TURNOVER IS FAIR PLAY
After four consecutive winning seasons in which they averaged more than eight wins per year, the Demons fell below the surface with a 5-7 effort in 2009. That makes them a genuine ‘Mission Team’ in 2010 and we’ll be more than anxious to support them in this revenge year. Unfortunately, we’ll be doing so without the services of 4-year starter QB Riley Skinner, who totaled nearly 10,000 yards of offense in his career. An even scarier thought is that no QB on the roster has completed a collegiate pass. However, there’s more than one way to ‘skin’ an opponent and the stat that grabs our attention is quite simple: in 2009, the Deacons were a negative -5 in turnovers after being +13, +9 and +17 the previous three seasons. Skinner or not, look for the Deacons to ‘Wake’ up in 2010. PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (9/25)
Coastal Division
DUKE – 9/6
TEAM THEME: DEVILS GET THEIR DUE
Like it is for the devil down below, things are looking up in Durham. Three conference wins in 2009 were one more than Duke had won the previous three years combined. In fact, the nine wins tallied in two years under HC David Cutcliffe is only one less than the Blue Devils won the first eight years of the decade. The loss of QB Thaddeus Lewis, only the second signal caller in ACC history to toss for more than 10,000 yards, will hurt. However, nine other offensive starters return from a unit that averaged over 25 PPG, including three wideouts who accounted for over 2,400 yards and 15 TD’s. Not to play Devil’s advocate, but one fact is certain if these cellar-dwellers expect to surface: Cutcliffe will need to avoid a perpetual season-ending slide that has seen Duke go 3-37 in each of the final four games of the season since 2000. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Army (9/25)
GEORGIA TECH – *6/8
TEAM THEME: RUSH TO JUDGEMENT
With Al Groh handling the defensive coordinator duties, the Jackets coaching staff now boasts the last three ACC Coaches of the Year. Offensive-minded HC Paul Johnson, winner of the last two awards, will rely on Groh to shore up a defense that allowed over 25 PPG and almost 5 yards per rush. Despite the defensive deficiencies, the Jackets still recorded 11 wins – the most since their 1990 national championship season. The offense has no such concerns as QB Josh Nesbitt is back at the helm. Nesbitt is the perfect caretaker for Johnson’s triple-option offense, becoming only the second QB in ACC history to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. Despite losing Jonathon Dwyer, last season’s second-ranked rushing attack (295 YPG) shouldn’t miss a beat as Roddy Jones (7.7 YPC) and Anthony Allen (26 career TD’s) return to Atlanta. Looks like another ACC title ‘run’ for the Ramblin’ Wreck. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Virginia Tech (11/4)
MIAMI, FLA – *6/8
TEAM THEME: PUNCH AND JACORY
A Canes conundrum occurred last year when QB Jacory Harris evolved as the full-time starter and, despite playing hurt throughout the 2nd-half of the season, proceeded to lead Miami to a 9-4 record, their most wins since 2005. What Randy Shannon learned is that there is little-to-no depth behind Harris and the fate of this season lies within his rail-thin frame. Like last year, the Canes will be tested early as three of Miami’s first four games will be on the road against teams that won bowl games last season. In fact, UM will take on no less than eight bowlers in 2010. Shannon will need to rely on the strength of this team – a defensive line that returns three starters along with 2009 projected starter Adewale Ojome, who missed the season with a broken jaw after a taking a punch from a teammate. If Harris can stay healthy, the Canes may deliver a few more knockout blows. PLAY ON: as dog vs. Clemson (10/2)
NORTH CAROLINA – *10/9
TEAM THEME: WELL-HEELED
While our favorite meaning of the word ‘loaded’ comes courtesy of our local watering hole, we’ll use Webster’s version to describe the 2010 Tar Heels: containing bullets or other ammunition and ready to fire. And ready they are! Ten starters are back on offense, including virtually every OL starter that went down at one time or another to injuries. Nine starters are back from a defense that has combined to make a total of 234 starts and held 13 opponents to 94 YPG below their total offensive average. Included in those not-so ‘baby’ blues are all four senior DB’s and DE Robert Quinn, the ACC leader in sacks. In fact, five all-star defensive candidates decided to forego the NFL draft to return to Chapel Hill. If this team stays healthy and can overcome a top-heavy schedule ‘loaded’ with nine winning opponents, they might force Webster to create a few new adjectives. PLAY ON: vs. Georgia Tech (9/18)
VIRGINIA – *6/7
TEAM THEME: LONDON BRIDGE
Back-to-back losing seasons spelled the end of the line for Al Groh. His replacement, Mike London, will try to bridge a winning season despite returning only six starters on each side of the ball. London coached the Richmond Spiders to a 24-5 mark the last two years, including a FCS championship in 2008. Ironically, the former UVA assistant makes his Cavaliers’ debut at home against the Spiders. He’ll need improvement out of senior triggerman Mark Veria, who started eight games last season – a not so proud accomplishment considering the Cavs’ offense finished dead last in the ACC in overall yardage and in scoring in 2009. A tough opening six-game schedule (4 bowlers, 1 FCS playoff team) and a treacherous five-game road slate (foes a combined 43-22), likely means the bridge keeps crumbling in Charlottesville. PLAY AGAINST: vs. Maryland (11/13)
VIRGINIA TECH – *8/5
TEAM THEME: AT-TEN-TION
Gobblers’ 10-plus wins in each of the last six seasons puts them in select company as only Texas can claim as many double-digit win seasons during that span. It’s been no surprise that it’s been the defense leading the way, allowing a nation-low 268 YPG since 2004. Thanks to the smothering ‘D’, the Hokies have amazingly not lost a game by more than 10 points in their last 39 tries. However, with only five defensive starters back, it may be the offense that actually carries the load in 2010. And loaded they are. QB Tyrod Taylor (5th in the nation in passing efficiency) returns along with RB’s Ryan Williams (1,655 yards – 3rd most by a freshman in ACC history) and Darren Evans (top back in the conference heading into 2009 before a season-ending knee injury). A season-opening victory over Boise State should put Beamer’s boys in the center of the BCS map. PLAY ON: as dog vs. Miami Fla (11/20)
Several contenders for 2010 ACC Title
By: Steve Makinen
The ACC sent seven teams to bowl games a year ago but lost the biggest one of those when Georgia Tech fell to Iowa in the Orange Bowl. The 2010 season is expected to be a transitional one by many accounts for the Atlantic Division, as several big stars have departed, as well as the league’s most well-known personality, Bobby Bowden. Jimbo Fisher, longtime offensive coordinator takes over for him at Florida State after some 35 years and not coincidentally, figures to have one of the better offenses in the conference. If the defense improves, the Seminoles could be a threat to Clemson and Boston. In the Coastal Division, four very strong contenders exist in North Carolina, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are the defending champs, but the Tar Heels might just have the most favorable home-road slate and a wealth of quality experience returning. Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami boast game-breaking quarterbacks.
2010 Predicted Finish (Sportsbook.com Odds to Win ACC)
ACC Atlantic
1. Florida State (+300)
2. Boston College (+800)
3. Clemson (+500)
4. NC State (+2500)
5. Wake Forest (+3000)
6. Maryland (+6000)
ACC Coastal
1. North Carolina (+500)
2. Virginia Tech (+300)
3. Miami (+250)
4. Georgia Tech (+1000)
5. Duke (+7500)
6. Virginia (+5000)
ATLANTIC DIVISION
BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES
Head Coach: Frank Spaziani, 2nd year (9-5 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple Pro-Style - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +5.0 (#46 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +3.9 (#51 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 42 (#45 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - WEBER ST
9/11 - KENT ST
9/25 - VIRGINIA TECH
10/2 - NOTRE DAME
10/9 - at NC State
10/16 - at Florida St
10/23 - MARYLAND
10/30 - CLEMSON
11/6 - at Wake Forest
11/13 - at Duke
11/20 - VIRGINIA
11/27 - at Syracuse
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 28-13 (68%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 19-18 (51%)
at Home ATS: 5-1, 12-5 (71%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-5, 7-13 (35%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 12-13 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-3, 14-13 (52%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-3, 5-5 (50%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 37.23 (47)
Points Scored - Allowed: 24.8 (79) - 19.8 (21)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 323.9 (98) - 327.6 (27)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.12 (91) - 4.75 (20)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.78 (80) - 2.99 (11)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.92 (75) - 6.52 (37)
Turnover Differential: -0.2 (75)
2010 OUTLOOK
The Eagles were a mild surprise in 2009. After finishing 11-3 and 9-5 in 2007 and ‘08, respectively, they were widely expected to finish near the bottom in the ACC. Instead, they won eight games under new head coach Frank Spaziani and finished in second place in the Atlantic Division. However, none of it came easily. Four conference wins came by a total of 16 points. In its three conference losses, BC was outscored, 104-34…The biggest question the Eagles face as a team is who, among four viable options, will run the offense. Dave Shinskie returns after setting school passing records for a freshman with 2,049 yards and 15 touchdowns but completed just 51.7 percent of his passes and was intercepted 14 times. He’ll be pushed by sophomore Mike Marscovetra and also also newcomers Josh Bordner and Chase Rettig for the starting job. While the quarterback position is up in the air, there is no question as to who the Eagles will lean on most heavily—junior Montel Harris, who started all 13 games as a sophomore and amassed 1,457 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Overall, eight starters return on offense… The stop unit was relatively solid, allowing 19.8 points per game and 103.1 yards per contest on the ground. It also limited opponents to 12 passing touchdowns, while picking off 15 passes. Six of 11 starters return to that unit…Regardless of who starts at quarterback, it looks like another eight-win season for Spaziani and the Eagles. Boston College’s biggest game of the year may decide the Atlantic Division—at home against Clemson on Oct. 30.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* BOSTON COLLEGE is on a 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) run at home vs. top-level teams (Win Pct. > 75%) . The Average Score was BOSTON COLLEGE 26.8, OPPONENT 19.8
CLEMSON TIGERS
Head Coach: Dabo Swinney, 2nd year (13-8 SU)
2009 Record: 9-5 SU, 8-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple Pro-Style - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +10.7 (#22 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +12.1 (#18 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 47 (#26 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - NORTH TEXAS
9/11 - PRESBYTERIAN
9/18 - at Auburn
10/2 - MIAMI
10/9 - at N Carolina
10/16 - MARYLAND
10/23 - GEORGIA TECH
10/30 - at Boston College
11/6 - NC STATE
11/13 - at Florida St
11/20 - at Wake Forest
11/27 - S CAROLINA
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-5, 25-15 (63%)
Overall ATS: 8-5, 18-18 (50%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 9-8 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 9-10 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-3, 14-11 (56%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-4, 14-15 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 4-3 (57%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 38.86 (31)
Points Scored - Allowed: 31.1 (28) - 20.4 (25)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 362.4 (74) - 314.3 (19)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.73 (49) - 4.55 (11)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.81 (19) - 3.50 (30)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.89 (79) - 6.31 (30)
Turnover Differential: +0.4 (28)
2010 OUTLOOK
A six-game winning streak from mid-October through late-November propelled the Tigers to a 9-5 record and first place in the ACC’s Atlantic Division. Their victories included a 40-37 overtime gem over the Hurricanes in Miami, a 40-24 defeat of Florida State and a triumph over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl. As special a season as Clemson had, it could have been even better if not for close losses—all but one by five points or fewer. The only dud was a 34-17 loss to South Carolina, in which the Tigers allowed 228 yards rushing…The Tigers were both productive and balanced offensively, gaining 2,688 yards through the air and 2,385 on the ground. While quarterback Kyle Parker, who completed 205 of 369 passes for 2,526 yards and 20 touchdowns against 12 interceptions returns, the Tigers said goodbye to several other key components of their offense, most importantly do-everything running back C.J. Spiller. Seven total offensive starters return… The stop unit allowed an average of 20.4 points and 314.3 yards per game, including 151.5 yards per game on the ground. It managed 30 takeaways and converted them into 55 points. Though Clemson lost its leading performer, linebacker Kavell Conner, it returns three other players who amassed 100 tackles or more as part of six returning starters… The Tigers are set at quarterback, and that’s a big plus. But they’ll need someone to step up in a hurry at running back, wide receiver, and special teams. No one can replace Spiller by himself. The defense should be dependable enough, but road games against Auburn, North Carolina, Boston College, Florida State and Wake Forest highlight a tough schedule.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* CLEMSON is on a 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) skid as favorites of 10.5 to 21 points . The Average Score was CLEMSON 30.8, OPPONENT 17.1
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES
Head Coach: Jimbo Fisher, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 10
Defense: 4-3 Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +0.1 (#70 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.9 (#43 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 45 (#30 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - SAMFORD
9/11 - at Oklahoma
9/18 - BYU
9/25 - WAKE FOREST
10/2 - at Virginia
10/9 - at Miami
10/16 - BOSTON COLLEGE
10/28 - at NC State
11/6 - N CAROLINA
11/13 - CLEMSON
11/20 - at Maryland
11/27 - FLORIDA
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 23-16 (59%)
Overall ATS: 4-9, 15-21 (42%)
at Home ATS: 0-6, 5-12 (29%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 10-9 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 9-15 (38%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-6, 10-16 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-2, 5-4 (56%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 40.85 (18)
Points Scored - Allowed: 30.1 (33) - 30.0 (94)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 420.5 (29) - 434.5 (108)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.36 (15) - 6.75 (116)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.60 (34) - 5.39 (112)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.06 (22) - 8.72 (115)
Turnover Differential: +0.1 (60)
2010 OUTLOOK
For the first time in 35 years, the Seminoles will play for a coach not named Bobby Bowden, whose 389th victory over West Virginia in the Gator Bowl on Jan. 1 was his last. The venerable coach had 33 consecutive winning seasons, but the Seminoles finished 7-6 in three of the last four, and so the powers that be decided it was time for a change. Enter Jimbo Fisher, who endured 22 years as an assistant, the last three as Bowden’s offensive coordinator, before getting his shot to run the whole show. He won’t be eased into the job, as Florida State faces Oklahoma in its second game…The best news for Fisher is that virtually his entire offense, which averaged 30.1 points per game, returns intact. Junior wide receivers Jarmon Fortson (45 catches, 610 yards), Taiwan Easterling (35, 442), and Bert Reed (60, 710) provide quarterback Christian Ponder with plenty of firepower….For all of their success on offense, the Seminoles were awful defensively. In fact, they scored 391 points and allowed 390, an average of 30.0 per game. They allowed 28 points or more in eight games, and three times yielded 40 or more. The Seminoles do return six starters, highlighted by linebackers Kendall Smith (85 tackles) and Nigel Bradham (93)…It goes without saying that this is a tough spot for Fisher, but what’s going to happen if the Seminoles get off to a bad start? Two of their first three games are against Oklahoma (away), and BYU. They do have winnable road games against Virginia, N.C. State and Maryland, but they close out against Florida. With their leaky defense, another 7-6 season could be in the works.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more PYA since '07. The Average Score was FLORIDA ST 19.3, OPPONENT 37.3
MARYLAND TERRAPINS
Head Coach: Ralph Friedgen, 10th year (66-46 SU)
2009 Record: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -9.9 (#109 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -6.5 (#91 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 32 (#78 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/6 - NAVY
9/11 - MORGAN ST
9/18 - at W Virginia
9/25 - FLA INTERNATIONAL
10/2 - DUKE
10/16 - at Clemson
10/23 - at Boston College
10/30 - WAKE FOREST
11/6 - at Miami
11/13 - at Virginia
11/20 - FLORIDA ST
11/27 - NC STATE
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 2-10, 16-22 (42%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 14-21 (40%)
at Home ATS: 2-5, 8-10 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-2, 6-11 (35%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 10-13 (43%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-2, 1-7 (13%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-4, 13-13 (50%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 37.33 (46)
Points Scored - Allowed: 21.3 (98) - 31.3 (100)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 315.5 (102) - 396.2 (83)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.73 (107) - 5.81 (87)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.10 (110) - 3.93 (59)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.43 (97) - 8.23 (109)
Turnover Differential: -0.5 (98)
2010 OUTLOOK
It all unraveled early for Ralph Friedgen and the Terps. From the moment Cal’s Jahvid Best broke off a 73-yard run in the first quarter of the opening game, Maryland was behind the 8-ball. The Terps went on to allow 52 points on that September day—and then 323 more in a 2-10 freefall. An overtime win at home against James Madison was an embarrassment in its own right. The highlight of the entire season was a 24-21 victory over Clemson, and even that was put in jeopardy when Maryland allowed a 92-yard kickoff return in the closing minutes. Will it get any better for Friedgen? It can’t get much worse…The Terrapins will put their offensive fortunes in the hands of Jamarr Robinson, who saw action in seven games and got an extensive look in the final five. He wasn’t half bad, completing 46 of 85 pass attempts for 482 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Robinson will have at least two established players with whom to share the load—wide receiver Torrey Smith and running back Da’Rel Scott…You can’t allow 31.3 points per game without some bad luck, and Maryland had that in droves, namely injuries. Now the unit has lost six starters. Perhaps it would be better to start from scratch…A quick start would go a long way in washing the bad taste of last season out of the Terps mouths, and they have a favorable early schedule. Things start to get a lot more complicated when they travel to Clemson in mid-October. It’s hard to see Maryland winning six games, but even a four-win season would be a jumping off point.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* MARYLAND is on a 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) skid on the road vs. good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 RYPG . The Average Score was MARYLAND 17.6, OPPONENT 30.9
NC STATE WOLFPACK
Head Coach: Tom O'Brien, 4th year (16-21 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -0.3 (#71 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -5.1 (#89 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#66 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - W CAROLINA
9/11 - at UCF
9/16 - CINCINNATI
9/25 - at Georgia Tech
10/2 - VIRGINIA TECH
10/9 - BOSTON COLLEGE
10/16 - at E Carolina
10/28 - FLORIDA ST
11/6 - at Clemson
11/13 - WAKE FOREST
11/20 - at N Carolina
11/27 - at Maryland
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 16-21 (43%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 20-14 (59%)
at Home ATS: 5-3, 12-8 (60%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-3, 8-6 (57%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 15-9 (63%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-2, 2-4 (33%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-4, 16-10 (62%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 35 (61)
Points Scored - Allowed: 30.3 (30) - 30.6 (99)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 393.8 (46) - 361.3 (55)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.63 (57) - 5.69 (78)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.46 (103) - 3.93 (58)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.78 (29) - 7.91 (96)
Turnover Differential: -0.9 (114)
2010 OUTLOOK
There’s not a lot to love here if you’re a fan of the Wolfpack. The offensive line is a mess, the two leading rushers are gone and the heir-apparent to the position just had ankle surgery. And there’s speculation that the quarterback just wants to play baseball. Plus, injuries, which were a big problem during last year’s disappointing season, have already started nagging, as 20 scholarship players sat out the spring game...QB Russell Wilson is a man of many talents. He threw for 3,027 yards and 31 touchdowns, and ran for 481 yards and another four scores. That after a freshman season in which he had a 17:1 TD-Int. ratio. Those illuminating performances should indicate that the Wolfpack is set at quarterback. But Wilson, as of early May, was slugging .519 while splitting time between the infield and the pitchers mound for the Wolfpack baseball team, leading some to speculate that he just might decide to stick with baseball. If he is back, he will be surrounded by six other starters…On defense, five of the top six tacklers have moved on, but slot linebacker Audie Cole, who lead the team with 85 stops to go along with four sacks, is back. Linebacker is the only strong part in what figures to be a rebuilt defense…In all, it doesn’t look very promising for N.C. State. Last year, the Wolfpack started well but were done in by a four-game losing skid. They allowed 176 points in those four games, and they didn’t get any better after losing top performers to graduation and suspension. Wilson can keep them in games offensively though.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* NC STATE is on a 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) skid as home favorites of 3 points or less . The Average Score was NC STATE 18.6, OPPONENT 25.1
WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS
Head Coach: Jim Grobe, 10th year (59-51 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Pro-Style - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Multiple 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +0.1 (#69 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +0.3 (#68 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 37 (#59 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 - PRESBYTERIAN
9/11 - DUKE
9/18 - at Stanford
9/25 - at Florida St
10/2 - GEORGIA TECH
10/9 - NAVY
10/16 - at Virginia Tech
10/30 - at Maryland
11/6 - BOSTON COLLEGE
11/13 - at NC State
11/20 - CLEMSON
11/27 - at Vanderbilt
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 22-16 (58%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 21-17 (55%)
at Home ATS: 4-3, 12-8 (60%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 9-9 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-4, 12-11 (52%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-2, 8-6 (57%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 37.58 (43)
Points Scored - Allowed: 26.3 (66) - 26.3 (65)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 403.4 (42) - 383.1 (75)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.72 (51) - 5.75 (81)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.69 (84) - 4.55 (93)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.82 (28) - 7.15 (66)
Turnover Differential: -0.3 (83)
2010 OUTLOOK
The Demon Deacons were riding high after home wins over N.C. State and Maryland last October. The win over the Terps had them at 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the ACC, and another trip to a bowl game was within reach. But then they got smoked in Clemson, lost a nail biter to Navy, then a game to Miami and fell a field goal short of upsetting Georgia Tech. A 41-28 loss to Florida State followed, and by the time they got Duke in the season finale, they were only playing for pride…For 2010, the quarterback picture is unsettled, as head coach Jim Grobe played no less than five hopefuls during Wake Forest’s final spring game. Skylar Jones may have an inside track to replace Riley Skinner, who threw for 3,160 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2009. Whoever the new quarterback is, he’ll have guys to throw to in wide receivers Devon Brown, Marshall, and Chris Givens. Six total starters return on that side of the ball…The fact that Wake Forest outscored the competition, 316-315, says more about its offense than it does its defense. However, the Demon Deacons were not horrible. They held opposing quarterbacks to 218.8 yards passing per game, while intercepting 12 passes. The Deacons have some holes to fill, with six starters gone, but they just may have enough depth to show improvement…It’s always a tricky proposition to head into a season without knowing who your quarterback is, and Grobe will probably have to shuffle the deck once or twice. The defense isn’t great, but it has depth, and if things bounce just right, Wake Forest could win as many as six games.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* WAKE FOREST is on a 3-18 ATS (-16.8 Units) skid vs. poor defensive teams - allowing >=425 YPG . The Average Score was WAKE FOREST 28.3, OPPONENT 30.4
COASTAL DIVISION
DUKE BLUE DEVILS
Head Coach: David Cutcliffe, 3rd year (9-15 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS
Offense: Pro-Set - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -3.2 (#83 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -4.0 (#82 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 32 (#78 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - ELON
9/11 - at Wake Forest
9/18 - ALABAMA
9/25 - ARMY
10/2 - at Maryland
10/16 - MIAMI
10/23 - at Virginia Tech
10/30 - at Navy
11/6 - VIRGINIA
11/13 - BOSTON COLLEGE
11/20 - at Georgia Tech
11/27 - N CAROLINA
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 10-26 (28%)
Overall ATS: 5-5, 17-16 (52%)
at Home ATS: 1-3, 5-10 (33%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 12-6 (67%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 11-12 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-0, 3-1 (75%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-4, 14-14 (50%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 32.33 (75)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.2 (74) - 28.3 (83)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 368.5 (69) - 368.6 (61)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.26 (78) - 5.54 (69)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 2.25 (120) - 4.00 (67)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.31 (53) - 7.59 (88)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (50)
2010 OUTLOOK
The fact that the Blue Devils have won nine games in two years under David Cutcliffe may not sound especially impressive—until you consider that they had won a grand total of 10 games in the previous eight seasons, including zero in 2006. In fact, Duke looked Bowl-bound for the first time in 15 years as late as Oct. 31, when it beat Virginia to improve to 5-3. The Blue Devils then imploded, losing their final four in convincing fashion. They’ll try again with a new quarterback, a new running back, and five new starters on defense…It won’t be easy to replace quarterback Thad Lewis, a four-year starter, but Sean Renfree did perform capably in limited action as a freshman. At any rate, the quarterback should be well protected, as four linemen are back. The Blue Devils are very well manned at receiver, as well, with Donovan Varner who had 65 catches for 1,047 yards and eight touchdowns leading the group…No one is sure about the defense, especially after the departures of five starters. The Blue Devils also lost their coordinator when Mike MacIntyre was hired as head coach at San Jose State. In his place, Jim Knowles and Marion Hobby will try to turn around a defense that allowed 340 points…Can the Blue Devils get back to a bowl game for the first time since 1994? A glance at the schedule shows winnable games against Elon, Wake Forest, Army, Maryland, Navy, and Virginia. If they should fumble away any of those chances, they’ll have to beat the Tar Heels, who they have not beaten since 2003, on the season’s final day in order to go bowling.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* DUKE is 9-0 OVER the total (+9 Units) as home underdogs since '07. The Average Score was DUKE 21.7, OPPONENT 40.5
GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS
Head Coach: Paul Johnson, 3rd year (20-7 SU)
2009 Record: 11-3 SU, 8-5 ATS
Offense: Triple Option - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 3-4 - Starters Returning: 8
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +9.0 (#26 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +11.2 (#20 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 48 (#20 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - S CAROLINA ST
9/11 - at Kansas
9/18 - at N Carolina
9/25 - NC STATE
10/2 - at Wake Forest
10/9 - VIRGINIA
10/16 - MIDDLE TENN ST
10/23 - at Clemson
11/4 - at Virginia Tech
11/13 - MIAMI
11/20 - DUKE
11/27 - at Georgia
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 11-3, 27-13 (68%)
Overall ATS: 8-5, 20-15 (57%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 7-8 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 6-2, 13-7 (65%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-3, 15-10 (60%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-4, 13-11 (54%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 7-4 (64%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 39.64 (26)
Points Scored - Allowed: 33.8 (15) - 24.8 (56)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 422.1 (26) - 360.3 (53)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.16 (24) - 6.07 (100)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.22 (8) - 4.90 (105)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 10.56 (1) - 7.34 (76)
Turnover Differential: +0.6 (21)
2010 OUTLOOK
The Yellow Jackets won 11 games, including their first ever in Tallahassee, and earned their first outright ACC title since 1990, but they weren’t entirely satisfied. Their season ended with a 24-14 loss to Iowa in the FedEx Orange Bowl and their defense underperformed all season, allowing an average of 24.8 PPG. As a result, they’ve switched schemes and hired three new coaches on defense, including former NFL head coach Al Groh, the new defensive coordinator… Seven starters return to an offense that set ACC records with 4,136 yards and 47 touchdowns on the ground. So proficient were the Yellow Jackets that they topped 300 yards rushing in 10 games, and both Josh Nesbitt and Jonathan Dwyer gained 1,000 yards. Nesbitt, who is back, was more or less on the mark with his passes. Despite completing just 46.3 percent of his throws, he made them count, averaging 10.5 yards per attempt while tossing 10 TD’s...Groh will have to transform a defense that was pushed around, and he’ll have to do it without three of the team’s four leading playmakers. Just how much difference he can make in game planning remains to be seen, but Johnson has been named ACC Coach of the Year in each of his two seasons in Atlanta. The Jackets enjoyed a 26-19 turnover advantage…Departures hurt, but expectations will be high. Johnson has a proven backfield in place to meet those expectations, but the rest will depend on Groh and his unit. Four of the Yellow Jackets last five games are against Clemson (away), Virginia Tech (away), Miami (Fla.) (home) and Georgia (away), a brutal stretch of the schedule. Another 11-win season will be tough, but they can win the ACC again.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, GEORGIA TECH is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) on the road when playing on Saturdays. The Average Score was GEORGIA TECH 34.4, OPPONENT 25.6
MIAMI HURRICANES
Head Coach: Randy Shannon, 4th year (21-17 SU)
2009 Record: 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS
Offense: Pro Set - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 3-4 Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +8.2 (#31 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +11.0 (#21 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 49 (#18 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 - FLORIDA AM
9/11 - at Ohio St
9/23 - at Pittsburgh
10/2 - at Clemson
10/9 - FLORIDA ST
10/16 - at Duke
10/23 - N CAROLINA
10/30 - at Virginia
11/6 - MARYLAND
11/13 - at Georgia Tech
11/20 - VIRGINIA TECH
11/27 - S FLORIDA
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-4, 21-17 (55%)
Overall ATS: 6-7, 15-21 (42%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 6-12 (33%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 9-9 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 7-16 (30%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-6, 10-17 (37%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-0, 5-3 (63%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 40.15 (24)
Points Scored - Allowed: 30.3 (31) - 22.2 (37)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 399.9 (45) - 329.6 (29)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.91 (35) - 5.16 (45)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.87 (74) - 3.53 (32)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.19 (15) - 7.09 (60)
Turnover Differential: +0.0 (61)
2010 OUTLOOK
After a couple of lackluster seasons in 2007 and ‘08, during which the Hurricanes won 12 and lost 13, the team began to show signs of life in head coach Randy Shannon’s third season, finishing 9-4, including 5-3 against ACC foes. It’s still a long way from its heyday of national prominence, when it won five national titles in an 18-year span, but it had not won as many as nine games since 2005. A 20-14 loss to Wisconsin in the Citrus Bowl shows how far the Hurricanes still have to go, and questions along the offensive line make it doubtful that they’ll make a big leap in the upcoming season… Start with the quarterback, Jacory Harris, who thrilled with 3,352 yards passing and 24 touchdowns, but also threw 17 interceptions. He’ll need to be more careful with the ball, but the pressure will be on his shoulders as the line is in minor disarray. The Hurricanes have the skill players in place (they averaged 30.3 PPG), and all that remains to be seen is whether they’ll have the blocking necessary to move the ball and keep Harris from rushing too many throws…The Hurricanes did well to limit opponents to 22.2 points and 329.6 YPG, but they did so despite forcing a scant 10 turnovers and sacking the quarterback just 24 times. More experience returns on that side of the ball though, with eight starters back…The Hurricanes are always dangerous, especially when they have a quarterback as good as Harris. They’re a long way from a national title, but another nine-win season isn’t out of the question. Neither is it entirely likely. Miami looks more like a seven-win team.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* MIAMI is on a 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) run as road favorites of 10.5 to 14 points . The Average Score was MIAMI 29.6, OPPONENT 9.4
N CAROLINA TAR HEELS
Head Coach: Butch Davis, 4th year (20-18 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 10
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 9
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +6.7 (#38 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +5.8 (#40 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 45 (#30 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - vs. LSU (Atlanta, GA)
9/18 - GEORGIA TECH
9/25 - at Rutgers
10/2 - E CAROLINA
10/9 - CLEMSON
10/16 - at Virginia
10/23 - at Miami
10/30 - WILLIAM & MARY
11/6 - at Florida St
11/13 - VIRGINIA TECH
11/20 - NC STATE
11/27 - at Duke
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 20-18 (53%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 19-16 (54%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 10-7 (59%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 9-9 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-4, 7-11 (39%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 11-5 (69%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 36.08 (55)
Points Scored - Allowed: 23.8 (83) - 17.1 (13)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 307.8 (108) - 269.6 (6)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.73 (106) - 4.20 (8)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.62 (88) - 2.83 (7)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.18 (103) - 5.71 (11)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (51)
2010 OUTLOOK
Butch Davis would love nothing more than for quarterback T.J. Yates to have a big year, something in the 2,500-yard, 20-touchdown range, but he’d settle for Yates not lousing things up. Word is Davis is so antsy about his signal-caller’s inconsistency that he’s been eying freshman Bryn Renner all spring. With 19 starters returning, the time for North Carolina to make its move in the ACC Coastal Division is now…So much depends upon the quarterback, but Yates’ season was very pedestrian—2,136 yards, 14 touchdowns, 15 interceptions. In other words, Yates, as a junior, was slightly less effective than Yates as a freshman. Whether he wants to or not, Davis is going to have to live with what he gets from his starter. If what he gets is mostly good, the Tar Heels have a chance to unseat Georgia Tech at the top of the standings, with all but one offensive starter returning…Boy oh boy, are the Tar Heels loaded defensively. Despite losing E.J. Wilson and Cam Thomas, this unit has a chance to be more dominant than the one that yielded just 95.6 yards rushing and 17.1 points per game, and ranked sixth nationally…After a couple of 8-5 finishes, the Tar Heels appear poised to jump to the next level. Even if the offense plods along, this defense is good enough to win eight games on its own. If Yates plays well, look out. The bet here is that he finds his way. The proof will be in the pudding: North Carolina plays division foes Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech at home, and Miami away.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6 Units) vs. good defensive teams - allowing <=310 YPG since '07. The Average Score was N CAROLINA 28.2, OPPONENT 21
VIRGINIA CAVALIERS
Head Coach: Mike London, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 3-9 SU, 6-5 ATS
Offense: Pro-Style - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -7.0 (#97 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -0.2 (#69 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 31 (#81 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 - RICHMOND
9/11 - at USC
9/25 - VMI
10/2 - FLORIDA ST
10/9 - at Georgia Tech
10/16 - N CAROLINA
10/23 - E MICHIGAN
10/30 - MIAMI
11/6 - at Duke
11/13 - MARYLAND
11/20 - at Boston College
11/27 - at Virginia Tech
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 3-9, 17-20 (46%)
Overall ATS: 6-5, 17-18 (49%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 7-11 (39%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-1, 10-7 (59%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-1, 3-8 (27%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-4, 14-10 (58%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 38.92 (30)
Points Scored - Allowed: 19.3 (105) - 26.3 (68)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 269.6 (118) - 358.4 (52)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.18 (118) - 5.05 (34)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 2.90 (114) - 4.17 (74)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.64 (111) - 6.29 (28)
Turnover Differential: +0.0 (61)
2010 OUTLOOK
Following a 3-9 campaign, its worst since 1982, Virginia said goodbye to old friend Al Groh and hello to Mike London. Groh was 59-53 in nine seasons at his alma mater, and won three bowl games and two ACC Coach of the Year awards, but the team had sputtered to an 8-16 record since 2008, and Groh couldn‘t hang on. London, who twice previously served as assistant coach in Charlottesville, had made the University of Richmond a power at the FCS level. Groh, the new defensive coordinator at Georgia Tech, will get a crack at the Cavaliers in Atlanta on Oct. 9…The Cavaliers offense lost five starters, including quarterback Jamell Sewell, leading rusher Rashawn Jackson and wide receiver Vic Hall, but it was time to rebuild the unit anyway. Under Sewell, they averaged 19.3 points per game and scored 17 points or fewer in eight games…Their defense, more or less, kept the Cavaliers in games, but it didn’t exactly break any records. The unit allowed 26.3 points per game, but 173.8 yards per game on the ground. It sacked the quarterback 22 times and picked off 12 passes. Leading tackler, linebacker Steve Greer, is back in the middle of things, among seven starters, offering some hope…The Cavaliers will be plodding on offense again. There is no ground game to speak of, no big-time receiver, and the offensive line is only so-so. Don’t expect a major increase in production, and don’t expect much help from the special teams. While they have a chance to be good defensively, the Cavaliers will struggle to improve on last season’s record.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* VIRGINIA is on a 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) skid on the road vs. good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 YPP . The Average Score was VIRGINIA 21.9, OPPONENT 32
VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES
Head Coach: Frank Beamer, 24th year (187-92-2 SU)
2009 Record: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 4
Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +16.2 (#9 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +20.3 (#6 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 55 (#9 of 120)
2010 SCHEDULE
9/6 - BOISE ST
9/11 - JAMES MADISON
9/18 - E CAROLINA
9/25 - at Boston College
10/2 - at NC State
10/9 - C MICHIGAN
10/16 - WAKE FOREST
10/23 - DUKE
11/4 - GEORGIA TECH
11/13 - at N Carolina
11/20 - at Miami
11/27 - VIRGINIA
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 10-3, 31-10 (76%)
Overall ATS: 8-5, 21-18 (54%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 7-10 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 14-8 (64%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 16-10 (62%)
as Favorite ATS: 7-4, 13-14 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-1, 8-4 (67%)
2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 42 (9)
Points Scored - Allowed: 31.8 (24) - 15.6 (9)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 392.1 (49) - 295.5 (12)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.20 (20) - 4.60 (13)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.72 (25) - 3.57 (34)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 9.60 (3) - 5.92 (14)
Turnover Differential: +0.7 (13)
2010 OUTLOOK
Throughout his successful career, head coach Frank Beamer’s calling cards have been defense and special teams. What a strange twist it would be, then, if the current edition of the Hokies came up a bit short in those very two areas. Beamer will have to replace seven starters from his vaunted stop unit, including three defensive backs and linebacker Cody Grimm, and both kickers. His offense, meanwhile, has game breakers all over the place, setting the stage for a wild season in Blacksburg…The Hokies didn’t score 414 points by accident—they’ve got talent on every level of the offense. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is slick enough to run away from defenses, savvy enough to get the ball to his playmaking receivers, and mature enough to stay away from mistakes. Tailback Ryan Williams is also dangerous, and rushed for 1,655 yards and a whopping 21 touchdowns, an effort that earned him ACC Rookie of the Year honors…If anybody can find a way to make it work with seven new starters on defense, it’s Beamer. The Hokies usually dominate defensively, and last year was no exception. They had the No. 1 pass defense in the league, but the Hokies don’t have much experience to lean on in 2010…Tech will be in the thick of things in the ACC, but they won’t be able to rely on their defense or special teams as they have in recent seasons. Their offense will be good enough to offset some of that slippage, but there’s no replacing a great defense. Keep an eye on the opening matchup versus Boise State on Sept. 6.
TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* VIRGINIA TECH is on a 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) run as road favorites of 7 points or less . The Average Score was VIRGINIA TECH 27.9, OPPONENT 15.5