Predicting the ACC
By Judd Hall
It was widely suspected that the ACC was going to be a premier league in college football after bringing in Boston College, Miami and Virginia Tech. Fast forward to today and the reality is far different. The Hurricanes have yet to get into a BCS game since joining in 2004, let alone make the league title game. Adding insult to injury is that the ACC has gone 1-6 in their last seven BCS appearances. As bad as things have been, they appear to be looking up this season with five teams in the USA Today Top 25 preseason poll. Let’s look at both divisions and see how they’ll get sorted out.
Atlantic Division:
1: Florida State – I know that a lot of people are missing Bobby Bowden on the sidelines in Tallahassee. But we have to admit that we was more Red Beaulieu than the man who won national titles in the 90s. Jimbo Fisher has 10 starters coming back on offense, including a healthy Christian Ponder. The defense has nowhere to go but up after ranking 108th nationally in 2009. But reports out of camp are that Mark Stoops has worked wonders with the stopping unit. The schedule doesn’t give them any favorites with trips to Oklahoma and Miami. Yet they get BYU, Boston College, Clemson and North Carolina in Tallahassee. The Seminoles have a real chance of finishing Fisher’s first year at the helm no worse than 9-3.
2: Clemson – The Tigers dodged a big bullet over the summer with signal caller Kyle Parker deciding to stay in school after getting drafted (and signed) by the Rockies. Clemson needed Parker to return after losing C.J. Spiller to the NFL. But the Tigers will have a much more consistent output in the backfield in the platoon of Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper. Defensively, this team has plenty of tools to dominate. The d-line brings back three starters and the secondary combo of DeAndre McDaniel and Rashard Hall picked off 14 passes last year. Trips to Auburn, North Carolina, Boston College and Florida State are daunting. But there is reason to believe they can handle the workload and walk away with an 8-4 mark.
3: Boston College – Frank Spaziani was thrown into a position that nobody thought was winnable and turned in an 8-4 record at Boston College. Now the Eagles are expecting better things this year out of their offense after averaging 24.8 points per game last season. That will be up to Dave Shinskie under center after throwing nearly as many interceptions (14) as he did touchdowns (15). BC’s defense gets a big boost with linebacker Mark Herzlich coming back from his bout with bone cancer last year. The Eagles get seven games in Chestnut Hill this year. That has to help BC backers this year since they went 5-1 straight up and against the spread at Alumni Stadium in ’09. That will help Boston College run out to an 8-4.
4: Maryland – Last year couldn’t have been any worse for the Terrapins, winning just twice with one being a squeaker against James Madison. But you have to take into account that Maryland well over half of its scholarships held by freshman or sophomores. Jamarr Robinson has taken control of the starting QB job. Plus, the talk has been that the offensive line has progressed greatly over spring and summer practices. The Terp defense will be a lot stronger this year with seven of its Top 9 tacklers coming back for another autumn in College Park. Don’t be shocked if this team winds up with a 6-6 record and keeping Ralph Friedgen from skimming the classifieds.
5: North Carolina State – Tom O’Brien’s tenure in Raleigh has been a bit of a roller coaster. A 5-7 opening campaign in 2007 gave way to a berth in the PapaJohns.com Bowl the following season after going 6-7. Last year turned into defensive mess that saw the Wolfpack go back down to 5-7. As far as the offense in concerned, Russell Wilson returns to run the offense after throwing for 31 scores. I’m not sure how good the defense will be after losing all four starters from the d-line and an inexperienced secondary. All signs point to another 5-7 season for O’Brien and company.
6: Wake Forest – This is a year of change for the Demon Deacons, which can’t hurt since they were 5-7 in 2009 after four straight winning seasons. Gone is Riley Skinner at quarterback, replaced by redshirt freshman Skylar Jones. Jim Grobe will take some of the pressure off of Jones with Josh Adams and Brandon Pendergrass taking care of the backfield duties. Defense should be improved with seven starters coming back. The Deacons’ defense has to be better after giving up at least 24 points in nine of their 12 games last season. I’d like to say Wake has a shot at being at .500 this year. The reality of it is they face a hellish schedule that makes a 3-9 record look like we see the glass as half-full.
Coastal Division:
1: Miami – Timing is everything in sports and it looks like it will be clicking at the right time in South Florida this season for Randy Shannon and the Hurricanes. Jacory Harris is a year wiser after a decent 2009 outing and should be much more accurate with his throws (59.6 completion percentage) after thumb surgery. Helping Harris out will be all five wideouts from last season returning to Coral Gables. They will have some issues on the offensive line, returning just two starters but they are deep in that spot. The ‘Canes are going to be tough on defense this year with nine starters coming back from a unit that was 29th in the nation with 329.6 yards allowed per game. Miami will have its toughest test early on with road games against Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Clemson in succession. That is where the real losses for the Hurricanes will come from to wind up at 10-2.
2: Virginia Tech – The Hokies have been one of the most consistent teams in the league since joining the ACC in 2004. And there is reason to believe they are going to be a force on the attack this season with eight starters coming back. All they did at the end of the ’09 was score at least 36 points in each of their final eight contests. Tyrod Taylor continues to be a dual threat under center. You can’t forget about Darren Evans and Ryan Williams in the backfield to give Virginia Tech one of the best rushing tandems in the nation. Frank Beamer’s defense is going to be practically brand new with just four starters coming back to Blacksburg. But you have to know that he has a system that has consistently worked. While the system will reap dividends, they’ll get worked hard out of the gate with the season opener against Boise State. Outside of that, the Hokies do have a winnable schedule up until taking on Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Miami at the end of the year. Look for a 9-3 campaign for Virginia Tech this season.
3: North Carolina – Butch Davis has slowly but surely put together a program that has the Tar Heel faithful practically giddy. You can’t fault that crowd for feeling optimistic with 10 starters returning to the offense, four of which anchor a line that averages 307 pounds per man. What could be problematic is T.J. Yates under center, where he has thrown 15 picks to 14 touchdowns last season. North Carolina also brings back nine starters on defense, including five players that decided to stay for their senior year. Starting off the season against LSU in Atlanta will help the Heels make an early statement. But UNC is facing a lot of good defenses this season, which will hurt if Yates plays like he did a year ago. All roads are pointing to a 9-3 campaign.
4: Georgia Tech – Paul Johnson has picked up a lot of street cred in just two seasons in Atlanta. That’ll happen when you guide a team to its first Orange Bowl appearance since 1966. Josh Nesbitt is back to run the updated triple-option offense with Anthony Dwyer taking over for Jonathan Dwyer as the featured back in the attack. The defensive unit will be much better this year with eight starters coming back. But the real coup there is Al Groh coming in to run the stoppers after be let go as head coach for Virginia. Georgia Tech’s schedule is not the friendliest, which will find them winding up 7-5 in a much tougher league.
5: Duke – Things are looking up in Durham for the Blue Devils after years of futility. Last season’s 5-7 mark in David Cutcliffe’s second season at the helm was the most Duke had since going 8-4 in 1994. The good news is they are returning nine starters, but will have to replace Thaddeus Lewis at quarterback. Sean Renfree appears to be the man to replace Lewis under center. But there is concern that he could be behind on his conditioning after missing spring practice due to rehabbing a torn ACL from late in 2009. This team lacks depth on defense, which has hurt them in November for Cutcliffe (0-9). That’s going to hurt with games against the Eagles, Yellow Jackets and Tar Heels. Plus, you can’t forget about a home test with the Crimson Tide midway through September. Duke is on the right track, but 4-8 looks like where this team is heading. Coach K won’t mind that at all.
6: Virginia – Mike London has proven to be a great coach while with the Spiders for the past two seasons. He knows how to win and how to recruit. It’s too bad that those things won’t happen overnight in Charlottesville. Marc Verica will be the starting QB, but on an extremely short leash. And the running game isn’t going to help out after ranking 112th last season, averaging 99.1 YPG on the ground. The defense is moving to a 4-3 from Al Groh’s 3-4 scheme due to the depth the Cavaliers have in the trenches. That stopping unit will try to keep the scores close, but the offense won’t do them any favors. The schedule starts with a tilt they can easily lose against London’s previous program, Richmond. Then you have a trip out to Los Angeles for a date with the Trojans the following week. Two tough tests before even getting to league play makes me believe UVa is doomed for a 2-10 campaign.
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