Action heats up in Vegas
By Micah Roberts
The South Point was the first Las Vegas sports book to blink in a staring contest with the Super Bowl line going from minus-2½ to -3 on Thursday afternoon. Every book in town has been steady at -2½ since the opening line came out with only the Golden Nugget opening at a higher number, but the steady stream of Packers money has been mounting making the risk quite substantial. The consensus feeling from most sports books has been that Steelers money will eventually show up.
By being the first in town since the Golden Nugget briefly had up a -3½ and -3, the South Point puts their feet in the water to test the market. No sports book really wants to go to the key number “3” because it’s the most hit upon margin of victory in the NFL. This season over 17% of all NFL games landed on “3”. Getting sided (losing one side and pushing with the other) in a Super Bowl would be a disaster because of the millions in handle.
From a bettor’s standpoint, the smaller money is likely to jump in immediately because this is the number they have been waiting 10 days to happen. The larger money from a few groups might opt to wait and not show their hand so they can simultaneously get down at several other sports books around the city when they are eventually forced to go to -3.
What happens within the next few hours will be a key moment in the Super Bowl betting progress, because if the South Point is forced back down to -2½, then it shows everyone in the city that there is Steelers money ready to pounce on the key number and they'll eventually have to take 2½.
Should the line stay as is at the South Point through the night, we should see almost every sports book in the city at -3 by Friday morning.
If the Steelers money still doesn't come, then you'll have quite a few Sports Book Directors wearing black and gold on Sunday.
Currently, there are no flat numbers available in Las Vegas with the exception of the South Point, a book that never attaches additional money to any game. Every other book is Packers -2½ (-115 or -120).
Update – Thursday, 3:06 p.m. Pacific
It only took 50 minutes before the Pittsburgh money flooded every outlet of the South Point operation with enough money to push them back to -2½. This proves that there is Steelers money out just waiting to bet.
What this does is show every sports book in the city that there is Steelers money really to be had, not just speculated. But now they know what it will take to get it and are they willing to the distance to get it. There no longer is a need to test the waters, because the results have been proven thanks to the South Point. The other books can only go so long by taking Packers money and at some juncture someone high up isn’t going to be happy with the type of liability that is about to occur if they don’t go to -3.
Once again, when a few other books do go to -3, they’ll all go for fear of not getting any of that Steelers money to balance things out. Who wants to be left out when it looks like only a few groups want the +3 right now. The small money and regular Joe’s who like the Steelers really don’t care what line they lay -- betting it whenever -- and those are the type of people that control the Super Bowl.
I’ll update later as more unfolds on the other “Big Game” going on every Las Vegas sports book right now.