AFC Betting Notes
By Ted Sevransky
Sportsmemo.com
Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have.
Buffalo:
Is it too early to call C.J. Spiller a bust? He was an amazing playmaker at Clemson and the No. 9 overall draft choice by the Bills, but he's shown exactly zero playmaking ability at the NFL level. His longest carry this week was nine yards. In 25 games over two years with Buffalo, Spiller has found the end zone only twice - less than the number of times that he's fumbled. And his contribution to the return game hasn't done a darn thing.
This was their best offensive performance in nearly two months, but the secondary got absolutely torched in the second half. Without Pro Bowl caliber cornerback Terrance McGee (IR) in the lineup, or their first half MVP, safety George Wilson, or former No. 1 draft pick CB Leodis McKelvin (hurt during the game), Buffalo’s defensive concerns are very, very real right now.
Denver:
The Broncos passing game was not a thing of beauty here, to put it mildly. Good thing for Tebow that Eric Decker is very quietly turning into a superstar wideout, making huge plays downfield on a weekly basis.
But the Broncos' defensive transformation over the past two months has been downright remarkable. It's not like John Fox has gotten a major talent upgrade since September. Yet a defense that was an absolute sieve for the better part of the first month of the season is suddenly getting stops, blowing up the line of scrimmage and even creating a handful of turnovers.
Denver’s dramatic defensive improvement combined with their run early and often offensive game plan has transformed the Broncos into a major under team. Pro Bowl left tackle Ryan Clady got hurt here, and that's an injury that has the potential to make Denver even more of an under squad in the weeks to come.
Houston:
Leinart's durability was always a major concern with Arizona and now it looks like he's out for the season with a broken collarbone. Third stringer TJ Yates came in and played like a third stringer, leading the team to a grand total of two first downs after halftime. Good thing that this team is getting tremendous offensive line play, setting up big gains with their zone blocking schemes in the running game.
Wade Phillips deserves some major props. Watching this defense compared to where they were last year is truly a remarkable transformation. Last year, this defense was the worst in the league. This year, even following the injury to their best pass rusher, Mario Williams, this defense is Super Bowl caliber.
Jacksonville:
Coming into this game, the Jaguars hadn't covered a single pointspread in a game in which they allowed more than 17 points. That streak continued here. At 4-6-1 ATS, the Jags haven't been a great spread team, but they certainly haven't been a disaster. Still, they haven't scored more than 20 yet in 2011.
That's not likely to change down the stretch. Jacksonville's skill position talent ranks among the worst in the NFL, without a single legitimate playmaker other than RB Maurice Jones-Drew. I guess tight end Mercedes Lewis should qualify as a playmaker, but with only 23 catches on the year entering the game, he's just not getting enough touches. Then again, he dropped a pass when he was wide open in the end zone, costing the Jags four points after they settled for a field goal.
The Jags have only scored touchdowns on 40 percent of their first-and-goal possessions - dead last in the NFL. So, when handicapping this team, you've got to handicap their ability to get stops on defense. Their 129 passing yard per game average (also last in the NFL) speaks volumes about the Jags inability to throw downfield and their inability to come through the backdoor late in games.
New York:
Mark Sanchez is still the starting quarterback only because backup Mark Brunell is incapable of taking over the job at this late stage of his career. Ryan even had Brunell take some snaps with the first stringers this week in an effort to light a fire under Sanchez. Sanchez's interception out of his own end zone in the second quarter was positively unconscionable and his 5-of-15 for 27 yards performance prior to the two minute drill of the first half was not particularly inspiring.
This team has invested millions in their ultra-talented big play receiving corps. They have a solid running game and a better than average offensive line. The only thing lagging here is the quarterback play and perhaps the swagger. Consistency and execution are not this team's strength.
At the same time, Sanchez displays some of the talent that led the Jets to trade up to draft him No.5 overall. His good throws and good halves are brilliant. Sanchez was clearly the goat for Jets bettors this week, but Jets fans will certainly admire how he rallied the team from behind for the outright victory.
Tennessee:
Dave Ball was an absolute monster pass rusher here, notching two sacks, including a remarkable sack/strip/fumble recovery on what was supposed to be a screen pass This defense has consistently stepped up in the red zone, ranking eighth in terms of points allowed. Even without star LB Barrett Ruud in the lineup against his former team, this defense played best with their backs against the wall again today.
Matt Hasselbeck isn't throwing downfield much these days, without a completion of longer than 10 yards with his first 10 attempts and without a completion longer than 20 yards for the full game. Good thing Chris Johnson showed up today. When Johnson is running well, the Titans are always in good down and distance situations - second and short third and short, especially with their ability to avoid offensive penalties.
Oakland:
I continue to be underwhelmed by Carson Palmer and this passing game. Some of Palmer's issues have to do with the lack of physicality of these speedy Raiders receivers. But Palmer really declined in his last few years in Cincinnati and he continues to make bad throws into coverage.
The Raiders' red zone offense is struggling – six field goals here -- because Palmer isn't zipping throws into tight spaces on a short field. Most of Palmer's stats are coming from catch-and-run passes on relatively short dink and dunks.
But the best kicking game in the NFL helps to mask some of those offensive concerns. The Sebastian Janikowski and Shane Lechler duo were positively remarkable here, both setting team records - Janikowski with his six field goals and Lechler with an 80-yard flip-the-field punt.