AFC Breakdown
By Bruce Marshall
AFC WEST
1-San Diego, 2-Denver, 3-Kansas City, 4-Oakland...The Chiefs won this division almost by default last season and this time it could be San Diego's turn, although the Bolts always threaten to underachieve for the emotionless Norv Turner. The Bolts might also miss last year's fiery defensive coordinator Ron Rivera, off to Carolina as the new head coach, and we can count upon another slow break from the gate under Norv's watch.
The surprise team in this division could well be Denver, as the Broncos are now functioning with a real head coach (John Fox) who has recently diffused the QB controversy by naming Kyle Orton his starter. Among other things, expect the Broncos to run better and defend better for Fox than they did under Josh McDaniels. Many forget how the Bronco defense was ripped by injuries last season, and things should not be as bad in 2011.
We don't want to dismiss the Chiefs because they continue to lose in the preseason, which has been a Kansas City habit for several years. QB Matt Cassel's emergence as a savvy field general was reflected in his superb TD pass/interception ratio of 27/7 a year ago, and KC has had all season to stew about the playoff meltdown vs. the Ravens. But we're not sure the Chiefs have upgraded themselves from a year ago.
Unlike Denver, which hired a coach who has taken a team to the Super Bowl, Oakland rolls the dice once more with another untested head coaching commodity, former offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, and NFL coaching gypsy and frankly never too impressive as an offensive coordinator at any level. A "poor man's Norv Turner," expect the Raiders to regress after showing occasional spark for firebrand Tom Cable. And it's not as if Al Davis hasn't swung and missed on several of his coaching hires in recent years. We'd also bet on Denver right now to avenge last year's 59-14 home loss to the Raiders, maybe in a big way, when Oakland pays a visit to Sports Authority Field in the Monday Night opener.
Surprise team: Denver
Best "totals" play: Denver "over" 5 1/2.
AFC SOUTH
1-Houston, 2-Indianapolis, 3-Jacksonville, 4-Tennessee...A changing of the guard in the South? Perhaps, with Peyton Manning's neck surgery and slow recovery causing some angst in Indianapolis, where the Colts are beginning to think about provisions in case Manning (already ruled out for the preseason) can't make it back as quick as expected. Indy has been an ordinary team without Manning, so there is room for concern at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Into the breach could ride Houston, with Gary Kubiak's job on the line but prospects for the stop unit much better with Wade Phillips back in his comfortable role as defensive coordinator. The Texans have the offense to make the playoffs, and now the defense might be postseason-caliber as well. But all bets are off if QB Matt Schaub should go down.
Jack Del Rio is on the hot seat at Jacksonville, too; frankly, it was a bit surprising that Del Rio survived last season. The future of the offense lies in Missouri rookie QB Blaine Gabbert's hands, but with his job on the line, would Del Rio consider turning the reins of the offense to a rookie?
Meanwhile, the Mike Munchak era begins in Tennessee, where the odds of fragile new QB Matt Hasselbeck making it through the season unscathed are off the board. Expect Washington rookie Jake Locker to be thrown into the fire at some point.
Surprise team: Houston.
Best "totals" Play: Houston "over" 8 1/2.
AFC NORTH
1-Pittsburgh, 2-Baltimore, 3-Cleveland, 4-Cincinnati...It's tempting to give Baltimore the nod in the division, but after seeing Joe Flacco melt down in last January's division round playoff loss to the Steelers, we are convinced that Flacco might have already hit his ceiling, and is just never going to develop into the sort of franchise QB the Ravens need to get over the hump. We know the Steelers have a franchise QB in Ben Roethlisberger, and we can only assume that his performance will stabilize even further now that he has become domesticated (Big Ben is now married!). The Roethlisberger over Flacco edge is enough to keep the Steelers ahead once more, although the Ravens' defense remains ornery and is good enough to get them back into the playoffs via the wild card route. If WR Lee Evans provides help for a depleted receiving corps, Baltimore might even chase down the Steelers.
The postseason is probably not in the cards for either Cleveland or Cincinnati, although we suspect the Browns rate a clear edge over the Bengals, whose HC Marvin Lewis is demonstrating more lives than a cat. We admit to being impressed by the "throwback" Cleveland backfield featuring punishing RBs Peyton Hillis and Owen Marecic, but is new HC Pat Shurmur really ready to turn the offense over to Colt McCoy? At least the Brownies have an idea about their QB; for Cincy, with Carson Palmer so far following through on his threat to retire if not traded, will Lewis really entrust journeyman Bruce Gradkowski and TCU Rookie Andy Dalton with QB chores?
Surprise team: Cleveland.
Best "totals" play: Cincinnati "under" 5 1/2.
AFC EAST
1-New England, 2-NY Jets, 3-Miami, 4-Buffalo...We're not ready to say that New England has guaranteed itself a place in the Super Bowl after the free agent additions of DT Albert Haynesworth and WR Chad Ochocinco, but these are just the sort of divas that Bill Belichick has historically been able to mold into the "Patriot Way" and detour around their notorious self-absorbed ways. If Haynesworth is right, it gives the Patriot defense perhaps the best pair of run-stuffers in the league along with Vince Wolfork, and if focused, Ochocinco is the big target Tom Brady needs to compensate for the other smurf-sized wideouts on the lineup. Early home playoff losses the past two years vs. the Ravens and Jets should provide extra fuel for the fire.
It would be no surprise to see the Jets regress a bit, as we remain unconvinced about Mark Sanchez as a championship QB. The addition of Plaxico Burress is also a roll of the dice, although Rex Ryan's defense keeps the Jets in the playoff mix.
Neither Buffalo (with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyler Thigpen) nor Miami (with Chad Henne and Matt Moore) have sufficient spark at QB to make a serious playoff run. The Dolphins, even with Reggie Bush now in the fold, appear to lack firepower; don't be surprised if Moore ends up starting over Henne at some point. HC Tony Sparano is also a strong candidate to be the first coach axed if Miami starts slowly. At least no hecklers have showed up at Bills camp and chanted for Kyle Orton, although the Bills missed with their new uniforms (bring back the "standing" buffalo on the helmet and wear the blue pants on the road, not white on white like everyone else!).
Surprise team: Miami.
Best "totals" play: Jets "under" 10.