AFC Breakdown: NFL Contenders vs. Pretenders
By Ted Sevransky
As the NFL postseason approaches, Teddy turns his focus towards the playoff contenders from each conference. This week, Teddy breaks down the top teams from the AFC into contenders and pretenders.
New England Patriots: Contender
Teams that win the turnover battle every week are very tough teams to beat. The Patriots haven’t just been winning the turnover battle every week - they’ve been completely destroying other teams in that department. New England’s plus-7 turnover ratio against Buffalo last Sunday was nothing new or different. Tom Brady hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6, with a remarkable 24-0 TD-INT ratio in his last ten ballgames.
Last year, Green Bay led the NFL by a wide margin with a plus-24 turnover margin for the entire 2009 season. Since Week 10 of the current campaign, the Patriots are a remarkable plus-22 in turnovers, a seven-week stretch of true excellence protecting the ball while creating havoc for opposing offenses.
The Patriots defense is not the most fundamentally sound unit in the NFL, allowing a very mediocre 5.6 yards per play. New England does struggle to defend many of the better balanced offenses that it’s faced in 2010, as clearly evidenced by their suspect defensive showing against Green Bay at home last Sunday Night.
And there aren’t many NFL home-field advantages greater than what the Pats enjoy in Foxboro. They are 15-0 SU at home during the regular season over the past two years and 35-4 SU at home (including playoffs) dating all the way to November, 2006. The Pats are sure to be fully focused after losing their playoff opener at home to Baltimore last January. Clearly, New England is the team to beat in the AFC with home-field edge through to the Super Bowl.
New York Jets: Pretender
Prior to last week’s win at Pittsburgh, the Jets had won eight games since Week 3. Those eight wins came against Miami (7-8), Buffalo (4-11), Minnesota (5-9), Denver (4-11), Detroit (5-10), Cleveland (5-10), Houston (5-10) and Cincinnati 4-11). That’s certainly not a who’s who of elite teams.
Even the win over the Steelers shouldn’t raise the Jets power rating in any significant way. New York was outgained on the ground and through the air, winning the game thanks to a kick return touchdown and a late safety - not because their offense and defense stepped up with stellar efforts.
The Jets are suffering some serious injuries right now as well. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has a bum shoulder, bad news for a mistake-prone QB with a terrible track record in cold weather and a 2-6 TD-INT ratio over the past five games. Starting center Damien Woody is hurt. Defensive leader Jim Leonhard is on IR and fellow safety Eric Smith hasn’t been able to suit up either, leaving their defense extremely vulnerable, as we’ve seen in each of the last two weeks against the Bears and Steelers. This team enjoyed a great postseason run last year, but I don’t expect them to be able to do it two years in a row.
Baltimore Ravens: Contender
Baltimore plays defense. The Ravens stop unit has held four of their last six opponents to 13 points or less. Ten of their 15 opponents this year have scored 17 or less against this team. We’ve seen them win outright in hostile environments, with SU wins as underdogs on the road against the Jets and Steelers. Even in defeat, the Ravens have been tough, leading late in the fourth quarter at Atlanta and New England. They are the only team to beat the Pats at home in the last two years, dominating New England wire-to-wire in last year’s impressive playoff victory in Foxboro.
And the Ravens offense is balanced and extremely tough to stop. Joe Flacco had a 35-24 TD-INT ratio in his first two years in the league. This year, he’s thrown 25 touchdowns compared to only nine interceptions, while averaging a career high 7.4 yards per attempt. Flacco’s got playmaking weapons all around him, both in the running game and the downfield passing game. Don’t sell this team short.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pretender
The Steelers offense has been broken for weeks, despite being loaded with skill-position talent. Head coach Mike Tomlin has two-time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, a 1,200-yard rusher with breakaway speed (Rashard Mendenhall) at running back and the most explosive pass catcher in the AFC – Mike Wallace and his AFC best 20.2 yards per catch average. But despite all of those weapons, the Steelers have scored a grand total of seven offensive touchdowns in their last five ballgames.
Against quality defenses this season, the Steelers have produced nine points in regulation against Atlanta, 14 and 13 against Baltimore, 17 against the Jets and 10 against the Saints, not exactly lighting up the scoreboard. Pittsburgh’s best defender, Troy Polamalu, is not expected to be anywhere near 100 percent for the start of the playoffs. The Steelers are 14-4 with Polamalu in the lineup but just 6-7 without him over the past two years.
Indianapolis Colts: Pretender
After a string of Peyton Manning interceptions left Indy in the midst of a rare mid-season three-game losing streak, the Colts have bounced back with three consecutive December wins, getting their season back on track. Manning threw a whopping eleven interceptions during Indy’s slide but he’s enjoyed a 7-2 TD-INT ratio during their current winning streak.
With Manning stretching the Jaguars defense, RB Donald Brown ran for 129 yards, averaging more than nine yards per carry. Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai split carries against the Raiders, combining for 143 yards on the ground between them. Indy’s offense has shown legitimate balance for the first time all year in recent weeks.
But the Colts’ injury woes continue to pile up on both sides of the ball. The offensive injuries have made more headlines with downfield weapons Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark all on injured reserve. But it’s the Colts’ defense injuries that make them pretenders for the AFC throne this year.
The Colts run defense has been spotty at best all year, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Only the Redskins and Bucs have given up more yards per carry than Indianapolis in 2010. And that run defense is not likely to improve as we head towards the playoffs without a dozen injured defenders that were on the opening-day roster. This defense has allowed 24-plus points five times in their last six games - bad news going forward for last year’s AFC Super Bowl representative.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Pretender
Jacksonville isn’t likely to make the playoffs. It’ll take a collapse from Indianapolis against Tennessee at home and a Jags’ road win at Houston for Jack Del Rio’s squad to win the AFC South. But we’re still obliged to include the Jaguars as a pretender in this report. They’re still alive for the postseason heading into Week 17.
That being said, Jacksonville is missing two key elements for postseason success. First, the Jags don’t dominate at home, suffering at least three home losses in each of the last three seasons, including home defeats at the hands of the Eagles, Titans and Redskins in 2010. They’ll have to win at home in the Wild Card round if they sneak into the postseason.
And the Jags don’t play defense. The numbers don’t lie: Jacksonville ranks last in yards per play allowed, giving up a whopping 6.3 yards on every opposing snap. Teams don’t win in the playoffs without a defense that can get crucial stops or an offense that can consistently outscore their foes. The Jags have neither, leaving them extremely unlikely to make any sort of a postseason run should they get there.
Kansas City Chiefs: Contender
The most basic mantra for NFL postseason success can be stated in five words: Run and stop the run. It’s a tried-and-true formula for winning playoff games, one that has been profitable even here in the modern era of high-octane passing offenses.
The Chiefs run the football as well as any team in the NFL, leading the league in rushing yards by a wide margin. Jamaal Charles’ full season mark of 6.4 yards per carry ranks with the likes of Barry Sanders, OJ Simpson and Jim Brown. It’s been one of the quietest legendary seasons from any back in league history.
The Chiefs are also playing outstanding football in the trenches on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Their ability to avoid negative plays in the running game consistently puts them in positive down and distance situations and opens up the play-action passing game for Matt Cassel. As a team, the Chiefs have committed only 12 turnovers all season. Cassel has taken only 21 sacks on 438 dropbacks and his QB rating is behind only Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers.
This team has been an overachiever all year, matching their win total from 2007-2009 combined by Week 16 of 2010. Don’t sleep on the Chiefs postseason chances. They are 7-0 SU at Arrowhead this year with at least one home game on tap for the postseason.