AFC Championship: Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh
The Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers will meet at Heinz Field on Sunday afternoon in the AFC Championship Game.
Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as 6-point favorites versus the Ravens, while the game's total is sitting at 34.
Matt Stover booted a 43-yard field goal with just 53 seconds remaining to lift the Ravens over the Titans 13-10 last week.
The Ravens won that game as a 3-point underdog, while the 23 points fell UNDER the posted total of 34.
Derrick Mason had five catches for 78 yards and a touchdown in that win, while Joe Flacco completed 11-of-22 pass attempts for 161 yards with a touchdown.
The Steelers defeated San Diego 35-24 as a 6-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted total (37.5).
Willie Parker rushed for 146 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 27 carries in that win, while Ben Roethlisberger passed for 181 yards with a touchdown strike to Heath Miller.
Team records:
Baltimore: 11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS
Pittsburgh: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS
Baltimore most recently:
When playing in January are 6-4
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the division are 5-5
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in January are 7-3
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore
NFL Championship Games: Against The Spread Trends
By:Craig Trapp
Hopefully this past weekend all of you followed the divisional match up trends which showed the underdogs the last five years covered 80 percent of the time. Well this year its only 75 percent with the underdogs winning straight up in all three of those games. Now lets look at the recent trends for both of these games to help clue us in on which trend plays we should be looking at this weekend.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh- Well if the Steelers are going to make it to the Super Bowl they must beat Baltimore for a third time in one year. These teams are bitter AFC North rivals that always seem to play all the way to the last gun. This year Pittsburgh won both games in the last thirty seconds of the game. Odds Makers have mad Pittsburgh a favorite with a line of -6. Lets look at both of these teams recent trends to see if we can see any obvious trends!
-Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
-Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
-Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
-Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is not a good team against the spread this year conversely Baltimore has been almost a lock against the spread the second half of the season. This -6 point line favoring Pittsburgh is definitely a huge trend play on Baltimore at first glance. But don't be so fast to lay down your next mortgage payment. Now you need to do your game handicapping and make sure that both favor Baltimore.
Hopefully these two trend breakdowns will help all of you get closer to picking winners against the spread. Remember Craig will be back later in the week to give a full breakdown of both games so check back later in the week!!
AFC Championship Preview - Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
By Razor Sharp Sports
Tom Brady and the Patriots, Peyton Manning and the Colts, LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers, or even Brett Favre and the Jets, I would have bet that I would have been talking about them taking on the Steelers way before Joe Flacco and the Ravens. But here we are on Championship Sunday and it is the Ravens that will be traveling to Heinz Field to take on Big Ben abd company. Even without those first couple teams I mentions, to a football purist, this could be a classic match-up. The game will be as hard hitting and bone rattling as the Steel town itself. You know the weather will be cold and the pads make that extra crack when the temps get low. Now when you have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Troy Palamalu and James Harrison making those hits and the faint of heart may want to turn away. This Sunday’s match-up between the Ravens and the Steelers could and should be a classic. Lets take a look at both teams.
We will start with the Wildcard Ravens. Baltimore has gotten into the AFC Title game with two road wins. First they handled Miami 23-9 and then last week, they bent, but didn’t break and took advantage of Titan errors (and one by the referee) to get past Tennessee 13-10. The similarities between this team and the 2000-2001 Super Bowl Champion Ravens are all over the place. Both teams are anchored by one of the best defenses in the league with Ray Lewis right in the center. They both were Wild Card teams heading into the playoffs. They both knocked off the #1 seeded Tennessee Titans on the road in their second contest. They both had questions at Quarterback during the season. Finally, the Super Bowl was held in Tampa Bay. Once again this year the defense has Ray Lewis leading the way. He has a team leading 117 tackles, 3.5 sacks and 3 interceptions. To go with Lewis there is Safety Ed Reed, who let the NFL regular season in interceptions with 9 and has added 2 more in the playoffs. Around Lewis and Reed, there is plenty of talent. Names like Samari Rolle, Terrell Suggs, Bart Scott, Hiloti Ngata and others fly all over the field to disrupt their opponents offenses and turnning the ball over. In the regular season, they lead the NFL with 34 takeaways and have added 8 more in their 2 playoff contests. Offensively, it isn’t pretty, but like the 2000 team, it is very workmanlike. Rookie QB Joe Flacco, who was forced into the starting roll after pre-season injuries, started slow, but gets better every week. At the beginning of the season he had just 1 TD pass and 7 interceptions. Since then, Flacco has 13 TDs and 5 interceptions in the regular season and added 1 more touchdown pass in the playoffs with no interceptions in 45 passes in their 2 playoff games. Flacco’s #1 target is Derrick Mason, his #2 target is Derrick Mason and his third option is you guessed it Derrick Mason. The veteran Mason lead the team with with 80 catches for 1037 yards and 5 TDs. That was about a third of all of Flacco’s numbers. If for some reason Mason still wasn’t open, Flacco did mention to find Mark Clayton and Todd Heap a few times. Clayton had 41 catches for 695 and Heap had 35 for 405. The ground attack has been real interesting. Willis McGahee looked to be the big back at the beginning of the season, but injuries forced the Ravens to turn to an even bigger back. FB turned RB Le’Ron McClain carried the ball and is 6′ 260 lb frame for 920 yeards and 10 TDs in the regular season. In the post-season, McClain and McGahee have split the rushing duties.
With all this talk of the Ravens, don’t worry, I haven’t forgotten about the Steelers. You want to talk about defense, then at the top of the heap, you would find the Pittsburgh Steelers. Take a look at the final NFL regular season stats. The Steelers lead the league in Points Allowed, total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and were second in rushing yards allowed and sacks. Last week they shut down San Diego. They allowed just 15 rushing yards and a total of 290 yards. Don’t forget 62 of them came late in the pretty much meaningless Sproles screen play. LB James Harrison won the Defensive Player of the Year with 101 tackles, 16 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and an interception. Fellow LB James Farrior lead the team in tackles with 133. Safety Troy Palamalu added 73 tackles to go along with 7 interceptions. LaMarr Woodley also added 11.5 sacks. The offense is still centered around QB Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben showed no soigned of the concussion that knocked him out of the regular season finale last week. He methodically moved the Steelers up and down the field last week. RB Willie Parker looked like he was finally healthy also as he ran for a season high 146 yards and added 2 TDs. Roethlisberger has plenty of weapons to through to when he isn’t handing off to Parker. Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes make up a very dangerous 1-2 combo and Nate Washington and TE Heath Miller gives hime even more options.
They say that it is tough for a team to beat another team 3 times on one season, but that is what the Steelers will have to do to get the the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh has beaten Baltimore twice already this year with a 23-20 home win back in week 4 and then a 13-9 victory at Baltimore in week 15. Looking at the way both of these two teams have been playing defense and knowing that the weather is going to be cold as always in Pittsburgh in January, I have to look for another low scoring contest at least early in this game. These teams will want to feel each other out and trade punched. The second have the game may dictate the kind of play we see and if one of these teams are forced to open up their offense, that could cause turnovers and possible defensive scores. I think the best play here is to just play the UNDER in the first half.: Take Baltimore and Pittsburgh UNDER the total of 17 in the first half of the game.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
By Brad Young
Divisional rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh collide a third and final time this season. But there will be more at stake than the previous two encounters, mainly a trip to Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa Bay, Florida. Baltimore is the AFC’s sixth seed rolling through the postseason as a wild card, while Pittsburgh won the AFC North and is the highest remaining seed left in the playoffs.
Baltimore hasn’t lost since a controversial home setback to Pittsburgh December 14 as a three-point home ‘chalk,’ 13-9. The Steelers prevailed after scoring 10 points in the fourth quarter.
The winning touchdown occurred with just 43 seconds remaining when Santonio Holmes caught a four-yard pass. The play was reviewed and upheld when it was deemed that the ball did cross the goal line. The Steelers locked up their second straight AFC North title with that victory.
“Both times these divisional rivals played this season, the games were close and very physical and I don’t see that changing in the championship game,” noted VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco. “I feel this line is a little shaded for the Steelers because the Ravens are banged-up.”
Caesars Palace installed Pittsburgh as a six-point home ‘chalk’ over Baltimore, with the total set at 33 ½. The Steelers opened as a five-point favorite, while the total has remained unchanged.
CBS Sports will provide coverage of the AFC Championship Game from Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET. Sunday’s forecast for Pittsburgh calls for snow showers, with a high of 27 degrees and a low of 19.
Baltimore (13-5 straight up, 14-4 against the spread) enters this matchup riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak after upsetting top-ranked Tennessee last weekend as a three-point road underdog, 13-10. The combined 23 points never seriously threatened the 34-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 5-1 the past six games.
The Ravens trailed Tennessee in first downs (21-9), rushing yards (116-50), passing yards (275-161) and time of possession (34:07-25:53), but won the game by winning the turnover battle (3-0). Signal caller Joe Flacco completed 11-of-22 passes for 161 yards with a touchdown, while Willis McGahee ran 12 times for 32 yards in the victory.
“Everyone knows how the Ravens have been winning their games all season, and that’s with defense and turnovers,” said Franco. “But they were very fortunate to get out of Tennessee with a victory last week.
“Joe Falco has become the first rookie quarterback to win his first two playoff games, but his numbers are just not impressive. He has just 296 yards passing and a 44 percent completion rate in those games. Yes he has not turned the ball over, but he will need to perform better to beat the Steelers on the road.”
Pittsburgh (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS) toppled AFC West champion San Diego last weekend as a 6 ½-point home favorite, 35-24. The Steelers improved to 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS their last eight outings. The combined 59 points soared ‘over’ the 37 ½-point closing total.
Pittsburgh led the Chargers in first downs (22-15), rushing yards (165-15), turnovers forced (2-0) and time of possession (36:30-23:30). Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 17-of-26 passes for 181 yards with a touchdown, while Willie Parker had 27 carries for 146 yards and two scores.
“Willie Parker looked great last week versus a much weaker San Diego defense,” stated Franco. “If he can run the ball like Titans running back Chris Johnson did in the first half against Baltimore, Parker could be the key to the game.”
The Steelers swept the season series with Baltimore SU, but the Ravens are 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings in this series. The Dec. 14 encounter went ‘under’ the 34-point closing total, ending a string of four straight ‘over’ outings in this series.
Baltimore maintains a solid 6-2 ATS record as a road underdog, and is 7-1 ATS away from home on grass surfaces. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is a modest 5-4 ATS when listed as a home favorite.
Baltimore linebacker Terrell Suggs (shoulder), linebacker Antwan Barnes (chest) and defensive back Samari Rolle (groin) are ‘questionable’ versus the Steelers. Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu (calf) and center Justin Hartwig (knee) are ‘probable’ against the Ravens.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need to Know: Ravens at Steelers
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ
Weather Forecast
The forecast in Pittsburgh calls for temperatures in the 20s with a chance of snow flurries for the 6:30 pm local time kickoff.
Ravens Banged up
Nobody questions that Ravens’ toughness. However, after seventeen straight games without a bye, including two playoff road games and a brutal affair against the Titans last week, there’s no denying that the team is banged up. Eleven starters were limited or out altogether in practice on Thursday.
Among the most notable of the walking wounded are CB Samari Rolle and DE/LB Terrell Suggs. It’s up in the air whether one or both will be able to play on Sunday.
On the Line
If there is a weak point for the Steelers, many believe it’s the offensive line. In addition to allowing consistent pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, the Steeler line has a lowly 58 percent conversion rate on third and fourth downs of three yards or less. The Ravens offensive line, by comparison, has a conversion rate of 73 percent in the same situation. Any such struggles on the Steeler line could be a problem versus a strong Ravens front seven led by mammoth NT Haloti Ngata.
One sign of encouragement may be that the Pitt front has played better in the latter part of the year. After allowing 29 sacks in the first eight games, the number was reduced to 20 in the second eight.
Flacco
Joe Flacco has not been spectacular in the playoffs, but he has avoided crucial mistakes. Over the last two weeks he has completed 44.4 percnet of his passes with only one touchdown throw. He may have to do more to give the Ravens a shot on Sunday.
The rookie will have to improve upon his most recent appearance against the Steelers, in which he passed for 115 yards with two interceptions and a passer rating of 22.2. Flacco had a combined passer rating of 53.4 in two starts against Pittsburgh as opposed to his 84.5 rating against the rest of the league.
Fast Willie
Steeler RB Willie Parker provided a big boost with his healthy return against San Diego, rushing for 146 yards with two TD runs in the process.
Some believe that Parker has a chance to do damage against a Raven defense that struggled to contain the similarly speedy Titans RB Chris Johnson last week. If so, Parker will have to overcome a spotty history in which, over the course of six career games against the Ravens, he has not rushed for more than 63 yards and has yet to post a touchdown run.
Turnover Factor
The Ravens have thrived on turnovers, forcing five interceptions and three fumbles in two playoff games. The most notable ball hawk is safety Ed Reed, the league leader in interceptions.
However, Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger has shown an ability to steer clear of danger. Reed has no picks in his last five games against Pittsburgh.
Meet James Harrison
Steeler LB James Harrison, the NFL Defensive Player of the Year, has terrorized the Ravens, particularly in Pittsburgh. In his last two home games against Baltimore, Harrison has six sacks, 17 tackles, four forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and one interception.
On the Road Again
While Baltimore has an excellent 7-3 road record after two playoff wins away from home, they face a difficult task in winning their third consecutive playoff game on the road. Since the current 12-team playoff system was adopted in 1990, a total of five teams have advanced to the conference title game on the road after winning the prior two on the road. While the Giants pulled the trick last year, advancing on to win the Super Bowl, three of the other four road warrior squads (’95 Colts, ’96 Jags and ’06 Panthers) all lost the conference championship. The ’06 Steelers, on the other hand, join the Giants as the only other team of this era to move on to the Super Bowl.
Pass the Heinz
The Ravens have lost seven of their last eight at Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field.
The Steelers are 1-4 in their last five championship games at home, 0-2 at Heinz Field.
Third Time a Charm? For Steelers Maybe
Contrary to popular opinion, it is not historically difficult to beat the same team three times in a season as the Steelers are seeking to do against the Ravens. Since the NFL-AFL merger of 1970, eighteen teams have met an opponent for a third time after winning the first two. Of these eighteen cases, eleven times the team that the won the first two went on to win the third (61 percent). In cases where the 2-0 team played the third game at home, the 2-0 team is 9-4 (69 percent).
Line Moves
The Steelers opened as a 5-point favorite before moving up to six fairly quickly.
The over/under opened at 33 before moving to 33.5 and then the current number of 34.
Sunday Research
By Indiancowboy
Ravens vs. Steelers
The status of Suggs is still unsure but regardless, what a rivarly it has become between these two teams that come out of the same division in the AFC. Now, they meet for the conference Championships. Big Ben was in the same boat a few years back when he led his team to the AFC Championship as they faced the Patriots who ended up intercepting Big Ben 3 times en route to the Super Bowl. Well, the Steelers feel they can get to Flacco. But, maybe the Steelers shouldn't be all that cocky. After all, they won 13-9 in Baltimore the last time and had some questionable calls go their way. Now, they did win at home earlier in the year by a score of 23-20 and that too was in overtime. So, is it truly fair for the Steelers to be cocky having defeated this Raven team twice this year by a combined total of 7 points and now laying 6 points at home? Granted, the line opened up at 5 and then went up to 6. The Ravens are the same team that went on the road to defeat a very good Dolphins team, a dominanat regular season Titans team on the road and now face a Steelers team who they have not been blown out against all year. The Ravens are 7-3 on the year and they have won their last 4 contests in a row. The Steelers did defeat the Chargers by 11 but were behind early and they face a very competent coach in Harbough who is far more talented than Norv "I stink at life" Turner. If the Ravens have an early lead, I see this game likely going over as the same situation when the Chargers had an early lead. Furthermore, I would not be surprised if the Ravens stayed inside the cover here, but I lean on the over a bit more.