AFC Championship News and Notes

Jets at Colts
By Judd Hall

It’s not too often that a Week 16 game could come back and bite you in the ass, but that’s exactly what could happen in the AFC Championship Game on CBS at 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday.

Indianapolis (15-2 straight up, 10-4-1 against the spread) was en route to a 16-0 regular season and possibly even a history making Super Bowl championship to shut up the 1972 Miami Dolphins when they met the Jets at home in Week 16.

The Colts held onto a 15-10 lead with just over five minutes left in the third quarter when they decided to pull their starters. Backup quarterback Curtis Painter fumbled the ball when he was sacked by Calvin Pace, while Marques Douglas ran the ball back for the go-head touchdown. New York (11-7 SU, ATS) never looked back as they won as a 4 ½-point road pup 29-15.

Outside of that run at perfection, there wasn’t anything else Indy was playing for in that game since they had home field advantage wrapped up. The Jets, on the other hand, desperately needed to win that game to stay in the playoff hunt. Rex Ryan’s club took advantage of that win and a triumph in the regular season finale over Cincinnati (who didn’t have a damn thing to play for) to punch its ticket for the postseason.

Ryan actually took umbrage to the fact that his Jets were longshots to win it all at the start of the playoffs, but should he so miffed?

“As someone that was on the Jets in the regular season finale against the Bengals as well as their tainted win over the Colts, I would objectively make the case that they are overrated,” states VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Paul Bovi.

“This is a team that lost to the Jags, Falcons, Dolphins, and Bills at home this year and had the good fortune of facing two teams in Cincy and Indy that had next to no incentive to win their regular season games.” Bovi continues, “While they deserve credit for their playoff victories, it is hard to ignore the fact that the Chargers imploded on Sunday with costly penalties aside from their over all lack of execution.”

There is no doubt that the Jets have gotten lucky during the playoffs. This is a team that has seen its first two playoff opponents go 0-for-5 on field goals, when their kickers (Nate Kaeding and Shayne Graham) had missed five total field goal attempts during the regular season altogether. San Diego committed 10 penalties against the Jets last Sunday; they saw just under five yellow flags thrown against them during the regular season.

As lucky as Gang Green has been in the postseason, we should give credit where credit is due. New York had the best rushing offense in the NFL during the regular season at 172.3 yards per game. They’ve kept that pace up in the playoffs, averaging 170.0 YPG on the ground through their first two tests. Shonn Greene has been particularly impressive with 263 rushing yards and two trips to the end zone.

New York has needed its rushing game to perform because offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will be damned if he takes to the air with Mark Sanchez under center. Sanchez doesn’t have terrible stats for the playoffs (63.2 completion percentage, 282 yards, 2 touchdowns), but those numbers are misleading. The rookie signal caller only had 23 pass attempts against the Bolts, completing 12 of them for 100 yards for a score and a pick. In fact, he’s only had five games this year where he threw the ball more than 30 times.

Unfortunately for Sanchez and the rest of the Jets’ offense, Indy’s defense looked pretty darn good last week. The Colts gave up just 87 yards on the ground and 183 through the air to Baltimore in a 20-3 lambasting as 6 ½-point home favorites. They also got Joe Flacco to throw two interceptions, but that’s a bit misleading since they came in the final two minutes of the game.

Those numbers against the pass for the Colts last week makes sense as they were 14th in the league, giving up just 212.7 YPG. Plus, Sanchez only threw for 106 yards against them in Week 16. Against the run, however, Indianapolis will be tested by the best when you consider they have the NFL’s 24th-ranked rush defense, allowing 126.5 rushing YPG.

And if the defense doesn’t hold steady, it’s not that big a deal. At least it isn’t a big deal when you have the best quarterback the league has ever seen in Peyton Manning. All he’s done is rank in the Top 10 in efficiency (99.9 rating), completion percentage (68.8 percent), passing yards (281.3 YPG) and touchdowns (33).

Manning has even been able to do this with a rebuilt receiving corp. Now he’s still getting the major contribution out of Reggie Wayne (100 receptions, 1,264 yards, 10 TD) and Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TD). What we didn’t expect was Anthony Gonzalez being out for the season with a right knee injury. What we really didn’t expect was getting great performances second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (47 rec., 765 yards, 4 TD) and rookie target Austin Collie (60 rec., 676 yards, 7 TD).

Indy needs the passing game to click because its rushing offense is lacking. The Colts are the worst running attack in the NFL, gaining 80.9 YPG on the ground. Joseph Addai has done a decent job with 828 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Donald Brown has shown flashes of his days at Connecticut, but has only gained 281 yards on the ground with three scores.

Success for the Colts on the attack is definitely not guaranteed against the best defense in the NFL. The Jets are giving up 312.5 YPG in the playoffs right now, but are second to only the Ravens with three interceptions. Darrelle Revis has two of those picks to his credit, one coming against San Diego last weekend. It also doesn’t hurt that New York was the best pass defense in the league with an average of 153.7 YPG during the regular season.

Even though the Jets are leading a charmed life and have (for bettor or worse) won in Indianapolis, the Colts are still listed as 7 ½-point home favorites with a total of 39. Bettors can play on New York to keep jamming its foot into that glass slipper for a outright win at a plus-280 return (risk $100 to win $280).

The Colts were actually just 4 ½-point home favorites for that much talked about game in Week 16 against New York, but Bodog’s sportsbook manager Richard Gardner explains the difference. “In week 16, when the Jets played the Colts, the line was actually as high as -6, but with the signing of the third strong QB of the practice roster books realized that the Colts were not as interested in playing for the perfect season and the line dropped to -4 ½. This week obviously the Colts do have something to play for and there are no questions that the book has to answer about playing time for the stars. This game is a must win for both teams, not just one, so that allows for the 3 ½-point move from the last games closing line.”

Recent history for the AFC Title Game bodes well for the Colts as the favorites have gone 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the last seven bouts. The ‘over’ was a profitable 5-2 in that stretch as well.

Adding fuel to that fire is the fact that Indy has gone 23-3 SU in the last five years when they’re posted as a 7 ½-point home “chalk.” Bettors have watched them cover the spread in 11 of those contests though.

New York has shown an affinity for helping its backers cash in at the window when listed as a road ‘dog, as evidenced by a 7-2 SU and ATS mark. That includes a 4-2 SU and ATS record for the Jets on the road in Ryan’s first season.

vegasinsider.com

What Bettors Need To Know: Jets at Colts
By RICKY DIMON

Sunday’s AFC Championship will feature an incredible contrast in style, and in more ways than one.

Indianapolis, an offensive juggernaut, has been one of the Super Bowl favorites right from the start. New York, a defensive force, appeared to have little chance of even reaching the playoffs less than a month ago.

The Colts (15-2, 10-5-1 ATS) started the season 14-0, rested their starters for the majority of the final two games and then bounced back after a bye week to hammer Baltimore 20-3 in the Divisional round.

The Jets (11-7, 11-7 ATS) were 7-7 after a December 20 home loss to the Falcons, but they snuck into the playoffs on a two-game winning streak and have since scored road wins over Cincinnati and San Diego.

Line movement

The Colts opened as 7.5-point favorites at most betting sites and the line has experienced almost no fluctuation. The total opened between 40 and 41 at most shops but has crept down to 39.

Hamburger helper

New York and Indianapolis squared off one time this season, on December 27, but the Colts limited their starters and fell 29-15 at home for their first loss. They led 15-10 midway through the third quarter before coach Jim Caldwell decided to bench Peyton Manning and the rest of his top players.

The Jets ran for 202 yards – 105 from Thomas Jones and 95 courtesy of rookie Shonn Greene. Of course, a lot of that yardage came at the expense of a second-string Colts defense.

New York also controlled the clock for more than 33 minutes, and they will once again try to keep the Indianapolis offense off the field by featuring a ground game that is tops in the NFL (172.2 ypg during the regular season). The Colts, meanwhile, were No. 24 in the league in run defense, allowing 126.5 yards per contest.

Coach Rex Ryan, however, knows this trip to Indianapolis will have little resemblance to the last.

“Yes, we got some hamburger helper in that game,” Ryan admitted. “But we'll just go in there and try to win another ballgame.”

Wayne’s World?

Something will have to give on Sunday because the second-best passing offense in the NFL is going up against the league’s top passing defense.

Manning (393-for-571, 4500 yards, 33 TDs, 16 INTs) recently became the first player in NFL history to win the Associated Press MVP Award four times. His favorite down-field target, Reggie Wayne, hauled in 100 passes for 1,264 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.

Against heralded Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis, Wayne was limited to 33 yards on three receptions in less than three quarters of action. Wayne, however, clearly had Revis beat on several pass plays before Manning missed the throws.

Sure to play all four quarters this time around, Wayne is eager for another shot at the NFL’s runner-up Defensive Player of the Year.

“He understands the game,” Wayne said of Revis. “He understands routes. He understands combinations. Now we've got a whole game to play each other. May the best man win.”

Infirmary report

The Jets had almost no notable injuries to report until safety Kerry Rhodes collided with a teammate during Thursday’s practice and departed with his right knee heavily wrapped. Ryan, however, assured that it was just a “bump” and that Rhodes, who contained tight end Antonio Gates last week and could have the task of stopping Dallas Clark, is good to go.

Clark was limited at Wednesday’s practice, but he returned in full a day later and is listed as probable on Indy’s injury report.

The news is less encouraging for the Colts starting secondary. Cornerback Jerraud Powers is questionable with a foot injury and cornerback Antoine Bethea is questionable with a bruised back.

Trending topics

New York is not only riding a four-game surge, but the upstart team is also on fire against the spread. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last five road trips and 5-0 ATS in their last five against AFC opponents.

The Colts have fared quite well ATS in their own right. They are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine against the AFC and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home outings. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven playoff games.

Head-to-head, New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams. The over is 5-1-1 in the last seven encounters.

Neither the Jets (8-9-1 O/U) nor the Colts (9-8 O/U) have been strong over/under plays this season. The over however, is 4-1 in Indy’s last five games overall and 6-2-1 in New York’s last nine against the AFC.

N.Y. Jets (11-7 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (15-2, 11-6 ATS)

The upstart Jets, who barely even qualified for the playoffs, now travel to Lucas Oil Stadium for the second time in a month to battle the top-seeded Colts in the AFC Championship Game.

New York shocked second-seeded San Diego on Sunday, scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns and riding its strong running game and defense to a 17-14 divisional-round upset as a 7½-point road underdog. The Jets had just 262 total yards, but 169 of those came on the ground, with Shonn Greene racking up 128 yards on just 23 carries, including a back-breaking 53-yard TD jaunt that proved to be the difference

New York also benefited greatly from All-Pro Chargers kicker Nate Kaeding going 0-for-3, including misses from 36 and 40 yards. That came a week after the Bengals missed two chip-shot field goals, helping the Jets to a 10-point wild-card win. Rex Ryan’s troops are now a torrid 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games, easily the hottest of the remaining playoff teams.

Indianapolis, coming off a first-round bye despite losing its last two regular-season games SU and ATS, stuffed Baltimore 20-3 Saturday as a 6½-point home favorite. The Colts got a field goal on the opening drive, allowed the Ravens to do the same, then didn’t give up a point the rest of the game. Indy outgained Baltimore by just 5 yards (275-270), but won the turnover battle 4-1, forcing two Joe Flacco INTs and recovering two fumbles, including one from the Ravens’ Ed Reed after he picked off Peyton Manning for the Colts’ lone turnover.

The Colts rushed for just 42 yards, putting the burden on Manning, who finished 30 of 44 for 246 yards and two TDs.

New York is in the playoffs for the sixth time since 1998, but this is its first AFC final appearance since that 1998 campaign, when it lost to eventual champion Denver 23-10 as an 8½-point road pup. The Jets have not reached the Super Bowl since their lone historic appearance after the 1968 season, when – coincidentally – Joe Namath and Co. shocked the Colts 16-7 in Super Bowl III.

Indianapolis is in the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season, and last week’s victory followed two straight years in which it lost its postseason opener --- in the divisional round two years ago and in the wild-card round last year, both to the Chargers. The Colts are seeking their second Super Bowl berth in four years, having dropped Chicago 29-17 as a 6½-point chalk after the 2006 season. Prior to that, the Colts hadn’t reached the Super Bowl since the 1970 season, when the franchise – then based in Baltimore – edged Dallas 16-13 in Super Bowl V.

These rivals have some very recent history, as New York spoiled Indianapolis’ perfect record four weeks ago in the same venue as this weekend’s clash. Colts rookie coach Jim Caldwell had guided his team to a 14-0 record, and Indy had a 15-10 third-quarter lead against the Jets when Caldwell inexplicably pulled Manning and other starters. The Jets went on to post a 29-15 victory as a three-point underdog and are now 4-1 ATS in the last five contests with the Colts.

Despite that outcome, the home team is 7-3-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the SU winner is on a 7-1 ATS tear. Also, the SU winner has covered in all 18 Jets games this year and 20 straight overall, and the winner is 8-0 ATS in Indy’s last eight.

New York rated a below-average 20th in total offense this year (321 ypg), and was slightly better at No. 17 in scoring (21.8 ppg). However, the Jets field the NFL’s most potent running attack, piling up 172.2 ypg in the regular season, while adding 171 and 169 rushing yards in their two playoff wins. Jones (1,402 yards) trailed only the Titans’ Chris Johnson and the Rams’ Steven Jackson in rushing yards, and he also had 14 regular-season rushing touchdowns. Including the playoffs, Sanchez has 14 TDs passes and 21 INTs (his 20 INTs in the regular season were second-most in the league, and he also fumbled 10 times, losing three. In the postseason, Sanchez has thrown two TDs and one INT, and he’s been picked just once in his last four games (all New York wins).

Defensively, the Jets ranked No. 1 in points and yards allowed, at a stifling 14.8 ppg and 252.3 ypg, and they had the No. 1 pass defense (153.7 ypg) thanks largely to shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis (6 INTs). But due to Sanchez’s rookie penchant for INTs, New York posted only a plus-1 turnover margin (17th). That said, the Jets have a plus-2 margin in the postseason, forcing two turnovers in each game while committing just one in each, and they’ve allowed a suffocating average of 9.4 ppg during their current 7-1 run.

Behind the NFL’s second-best passing attack (282.2 ypg), Indy averaged 363.1 total ypg (ninth) and 26 ppg (seventh). Manning threw for exactly 4,500 yards and had 33 TDs against 16 INTs, with five players recording 47 or more catches. WR Reggie Wayne (100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs) and TE Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TDs) led the way.

Indianapolis allowed 339.2 ypg (18th) in regular-season action, but that translated into just 19.2 ppg (ninth). The Colts had a nominal plus-2 turnover margin in the regular season. However, as noted above, Indy was plus-3 in last week’s victory over Baltimore.

The Jets are on a plethora of pointspread streaks, including 4-0 overall (all against winning teams), 5-0 on the highway, 6-1 in January, 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 4-1 in playoff roadies and 8-2 as an underdog. However, road teams coming off a playoff upset are on a 26-47 ATS purge.

The Colts are on ATS upswings of 6-3 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 6-2 as a chalk, 8-2 after a spread-cover, 5-2 after a SU win, 5-2 in the playoffs and 5-2 in home postseason tilts.

New York is on “over” runs of 5-1 in January, 6-2-1 against AFC foes and 3-1-1 versus winning teams, and the over for Indianapolis is on surges of 4-1 overall (all within the AFC) and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win. In addition, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry. Also, the past four years, the over has gone 12-4 in conference championship games.

Conversely, the under is 7-2 in the Colts’ last nine playoff contests and 7-3 in Indy’s last 10 January affairs, and both teams’ playoff games last week fell well short of the posted totals.

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS

N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone

Normally this time of year in professional football, everyone is talking about how important quarterback play is and how the teams matchup. Well, New Yorkers are often known for their bravado and as it turns out the Jets have the perfect coach to make believers out of the players and fans alike. Rex Ryan may not understand the mathematical workings of the NFL playoff system (after losing to Atlanta he said his team had almost no chance to make the postseason) but hes able to rally the troops with the familiar us against the world refrain, used expertly by his father Buddy Ryan and George Allen before him.

Its the clichd respect card that has been reformulated in green and white by coach Ryan, winning seven of last eight (7-1 ATS) which has his players believing him like the pied piper. Ryans conviction had him making comments like New York should be favored for the Super Bowl and his logic is correct based on statistical information.

The Jets (11-7 SU & ATS) have the best defense in the NFL and attack opposing quarterbacks like a siege of numerous battalions. While seven or sometimes eight Jets are on the fly, a confident group of pass defenders led by Darelle Revis back them up. The Flyboys cornerback sticks to receivers better than Super Glue and helps the secondary provide better coverage than Safe Autos Justin Case. New York is 8-2 ATS on the road against teams with winning home record.

New York also runs the ball better than anyone in the NFL averaging 172 yards per game. Between the defense and running game that is the foundation of Ryans belief system, OC Brian Shottenheimer is on a roll as play-caller, protecting Mark Sanchez and calling the right plays which the Jets have been able to execute.

The Indianapolis Colts organization is completely different. They give away undefeated season in hopes of winning a bigger prize. The Colts (15-2, 11-6 ATS) let their play on field do the talking, however dont for second think they havent been listening to all the huffing and puffing coming out of the Big Apple. A person not familiar with professional football might surmise the Jets are the favored and better team by reading newspaper and online accounts of the AFC Championship. Indianapolis has been to a Super Bowl in the last 39 years and actually won something, New York cant make the same claim. The Colts have to be simmering in listening to all the talk.

Sportbet.com has Indianapolis as 7.5-point favorites with total of 39.5 and they are 8-2 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. Home favorites of seven to nine points in conference championships are 11-3 ATS in last 14 outings. While Peyton Manning will be blitzed extensively, hes arguably the smartest quarterback in the game. His impeccable film study allows him to find and edge or two against any defense.

Expect the Colts to test Revis early with Reggie Wayne. Though Revis has stopped virtually every top receiver he has faced this season, Wayne is slightly different type of pass catcher, not a home run threat per se, his real expertise is running crossing routes, which is more difficult for any defender to cover. The Jets safeties are average in pass coverage and Indy wont make the same mistake San Diego did with Antonio Gates. Because a tight end is often the hot read in blitzes, Dallas Clark will shorten his routes and with film study, see were the weakness are in the Jets secondary, look for him to have big game for Colts who have covered last four games as 3.5 to 10-point favorites.

The Colts defensive run numbers are not imposing; however they only allowed 17.7 points a game a Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Their goal is to force third down and five and longer all day long.

Sanchez has played better in each of two playoff games, but can his teammates protect from being too excited being 60 minutes away from Super Bowl? The offensive line will gain rushing yards with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene toting the pigskin, the question is can they score once on the Indianapolis side of the field. Gang Green is a splendid 7-3 SU and ATS on the road and riding the crest of emotion. New Yorks defense will look to stone a meager Colts running game and try to contain Wayne and Clark and smack around young receivers Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, causing them to lose concentration in the moment to stall Indys offense.

This game has Under written all over it and the line has dropped precipitously from opening 41points. The Colts are 37-21 UNDER when they rush for 50 to 75 yards, which is a distinct possibility and the Jets are 22-9 UNDER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt. A system to consider is playing on home teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points and they out-score opponents by seven or more points a game, after allowing nine points or less last game. (29-8)