AFC Division Predictions
By: Nellys Sportsline
AFC EAST: New England, Buffalo, Miami, New York
Most teams that lose a franchise QB minutes into the season would spiral into a disastrous season but the New England Patriots went 11-5 last season and in most years would have still made the playoffs. This year the Patriots will benefit by playing a second place schedule that should provide a lot of opportunities for wins. The health of Tom Brady will be critical but the track record of this organization is remarkable even with the loss of some key people in the management and coaching staff. The Patriots will not only be the team to beat in this division but likely the Super Bowl favorites.
After three straight mediocre 7-9 seasons the Buffalo Bills needed to do something drastic to either take the next step or implode and start over. With the signing of Terrell Owens the Bills took that exact type of gamble and odds are that it will payoff in a playoff run or be a disaster that runs coach Jauron out of town. One thing is for certain, the Bills have instantly become a more interesting team that will get a lot more attention. Buffalo gets to play a fourth place schedule but with this division facing the AFC and NFC South divisions there will be depressed records and limited chance for a wild card spot out of the East.
The Miami Dolphins may have improved a little too quickly. After going 1-15 in 2007, the Dolphins stormed to a 11-5 season and a division title. This season the schedule will be much tougher and Miami will not surprise anyone. Miami won seven games by seven points or less last year and a drop in the standings is very likely this season. There are some nice pieces in place for the Dolphins but things should turn for the worse in 2009.
Rex Ryan takes over for the New York Jets and although a couple of teams that went with new coaches and new QBs had success last season the Jets will have a hard time making that same transition. The Jets will face playoff teams each of the first four games of the season and if rookie QB Mark Sanchez is starting right away it could be a long opening month that could cripple the team for the remainder of the season. The Jets might not know what they had until it is gone.
AFC NORTH: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland
Despite facing a tough schedule last season the Pittsburgh Steelers went 12-4 and carried that momentum all the way to a Super Bowl title. The Steelers have owned this division under Coach Tomlin and there is little reason to suggest that Pittsburgh will be seriously challenged on top of the North this year. The offense did not post great numbers last season and the defense will need to fill some gaps but Pittsburgh will still catch a favorable schedule facing the AFC West and the NFC North so a return playoff trip is very likely. Pittsburgh’s defensive formula has worked well and the Steelers should be very tough to score on again.
Predicting success for the Cincinnati Bengals is problematic as they have dealt with a lot of injuries and they seem to attract controversial players that can cause locker room issues. Still if QB Carson Palmer can stay healthy the Bengals should have the most explosive offense in this division. The defense should actually be respectable for the Bengals as this team played well late last season, closing with three straight wins. The schedule should also provide many more opportunities for wins. Look for Cincinnati to be a wild card contender with a greatly improved record in 2009.
Last season the Baltimore Ravens were a great success story but there are many reasons to expect a big fall this year. A second place schedule brings the Ravens New England and Indianapolis on the schedule, which no one else in the division plays and the Ravens also got tougher draws compared to the other squads in this division, playing on the road at Minnesota, Green Bay, and San Diego. Baltimore’s defense continues to age and QB Joe Flacco had a lot of mistakes that were covered up by the defense creating turnovers and big plays.
Another new beginning starts for the Cleveland Browns as Eric Mangini takes over. The Browns defense was terrible last season and the offense failed to top eleven points in ten games. Looking at the statistics it is hard to believe this team won four games last year and getting to four this season would be a great accomplishment as the first half schedule is absolutely brutal.
NFC SOUTH: Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Houston
The AFC South should be far and away the best division in the AFC and getting three playoff teams out of this group would not be a surprise. Expect a very tight race and perhaps a surprise winner as the Jacksonville Jaguars could really make a move this season. The Jaguars were a trendy Super Bowl pick last season but lost seven games by ten points or less and completely fell apart in the second half. The offensive line was riddled with injuries and that weakness was addressed significantly this off-season. This is a team that has won twelve games twice in the last four years and a significant bounce back should be in order as they catch by far the most favorable schedule of the four teams in this division.
There will be a lot of big changes for the Indianapolis Colts this season but as long as QB Peyton Manning is involved the Colts should be a playoff contender. Indianapolis has won at least twelve games for six consecutive years and this should be a smoother coaching change transition than many others as it was expected and planned for. The Colts should remain a very competitive team this will be a team that oddsmakers and gamblers may have a tough time figuring out for a while. Recall last season Indianapolis started 3-4 and yet still rallied for a playoff spot so this is a tough team to count out.
The Tennessee Titans went 13-3 last season to earn the AFC’s top seed but the Titans faded at the wrong time and saw a quick exit from the playoffs. Losing DT Haynesworth is significant and the QB situation will remain a bit murky although Kerry Collins delivered a great season last year. Coach Jeff Fisher has continually proven to be one of the best and the Titans often have over achieved but there should be a drop in the win column in Nashville this season.
The Houston Texans are going to be a very trendy playoff pick but this team has been .500 each of the last two years and making the jump in this division will be very difficult. Five of Houston’s wins came by seven points or less last season and the defense has never been as good statistically as the personnel suggest it should be. QB Matt Schaub has not stayed healthy and will still be the weakest and least experienced QB in this division. Houston will be good, but that may not mean playoffs.
NFC WEST: San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Kansas City
Predicting the San Diego Chargers to win this division seemed like a no-brainer last season but it was not until the final game that the Chargers got back into first place. The Chargers had several losses that were tough to swallow last season but in the playoffs they showed they can still play with anyone. There are some nagging injury concerns and a tough schedule draw with the NFC East teams but San Diego appears to be clearly the top team in this division and if they take care of business in division play, they could feature one of the better records in the AFC. If San Diego does not win this division, expect changes to be made as they have by far the best talent.
The Oakland Raiders continue to be a popular punch line but in reality this is an intriguing team that should be respectable this season. For the most part the Raiders played very good defense last season and that should be the case again this year which can keep them in games. Between an improving JaMarcus Russell and Jeff Garcia, QB play should the best it has been in years and Oakland has a lot of young talent at the skill positions. Given all the distractions last season Oakland still won five games last year and this is a team that can probably get close to .500 and at least shake off some of the negative attention.
The Denver Broncos made a big and controversial move in letting go of Mike Shanahan after last season and his replacement Josh McDaniels has not had an encouraging start as his QB and most recognizable player forced his way out. McDaniels could be given little patience and he inherits a Denver team that was fortunate to finish 8-8 last year. Expectations will be high and there is simply not a great deal of play-makers and the defense was a complete disaster last season. Things could get worse before they get better in Denver.
There is a lot of interest in the big changes for the Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately a slow start should be expected with a killer schedule in first half of the season. Given the transition, a very tough start should be expected but this is a team heading in the right direction although it may not look that way until late in the season. The Chiefs were more competitive than the 2-14 record indicates but this is still a team starting over.