AFC East preview
By Marc Lawrence
With NFL ‘EAST’ division teams leading the charge with a combined total of 13 games played in Conference title tilts this past decade, including an league high four championship game appearances games by squads playing out of the AFC EAST, it speaks to the strength of this group.
So does the division’s 29-14 ATS mark as non-division road dogs from Game Twelve out this past decade, including a sterling 14-1 ATS when facing sub. 600 opposition.
Leading the charge is Mr. Personality himself, Bill Belichick and his New England Patriots. While his persona is hardly enduring, his manhandling of AFC East division foes that are off back-to-back losses is downright sinister, going 14-3 SU and 15-2 ATS with the Pats in these affairs.
The Jets go from the hunter to the hunted. It will be interesting to see how they handle their newfound celebrity status.
Meanwhile, Miami owner Stephen Ross insists his team has Super Bowl champion written all over them. Our best guess is that happens as they bust out their 1972 throwbacks at some point during the season.
And then there’s Buffalo, ushering in a seventh different head coach this millennium. With the Bills enjoying only one winning season during this span, Chan Gailey’s troops could mildly surprise, especially with all the pressure in this loop pointed elsewhere.
Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
BUFFALO
TEAM THEME: DRINKING THE KOOL-AID
January 8, 2000. It not only marked the start of a new millennium, it also commemorates the date this floundering franchise last appeared in a playoff game. That was under the lead of Wade Phillips. Greg Williams, Mike Mularkey and Dick Jauron have all since attempted, and failed, to secure a post-season berth for the Bills. Along with dreadful Detroit, it’s been a long time between drinks of playoff water in Buffalo. Enter Chan Gailey, former NFL retread. In his two years at the helm with the Dallas Cowboys, Gailey managed a taste of the playoffs both seasons, albeit one-and-outs. That was likely the attraction in his hire by the Buffalo brass. To compete within the ultra-tough AFC East, Gailey will hope the selection of do-everything RB C.J. Spiller with the 9th pick in the first-round pays off. He provides a huge dose of excitement to a dreadful offense that was better than only Cleveland and Oakland last year.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. New England (12/26) – *KEY if Bills .500 >
MIAMI
TEAM THEME: MARSHALL PLAN
Some things in life come as no surprise. Ben Roethlisberger looking for a little bump-and-run. The Dallas Cowboys collapsing like the London Bridge on the road in December. Bill Parcells ordering up seven defensive players with his eight picks in this year’s draft. You get the drift. First-round draft pick Jared Odrick, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year at Penn State, is moving from defensive tackle in a 4-3 at Penn State to defensive end in a 3-4. That’s because of a shakeup on the DL due to the loss of massive NT Jason Ferguson, suspended the first eight games of the season for repeated violations of the performance enhancing policy. The addition of home-run hitting WR Brandon Marshall should kick-start QB Chad Henne’s development while the running back tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams is as good as any in the league. All in all, a grand plan by the Tuna for getting his Fish back into playoff waters.
PLAY ON: as dog at Cincinnati (10/31)
NEW ENGLAND
TEAM THEME: 3RD AND LONG IN THE TOOTH
Don’t look now but the Pats are taking on the look of an aging rock group. WR Randy Moss turned 33 and a step slower. His partner, WR Wes Welker, caught more passes (123) than anyone in the league in 2009, but underwent off-season knee surgery for a torn ALC and MCL and as a result, 34-year old Torry Holt was signed. RB Kevin Faulk turned 34 this summer and even star QB Tom Brady lists a pair of 3’s next to his age theses days. With other aging veterans either on or currently looking to earn a roster spot (Alge Cumpler, David Patten, Sammy Morris, Shawn Springs, etc.), the crow’s feet are creeping in on the Patriots. It’s why Bill Belichick loaded up on a stockpile of quality picks (12) in this year’s draft. While there is no refuting their results (121 wins the last nine years), New England is the pre-season 3rd choice to win the AFC on 2010. An oldies concert in Foxboro this January is pending.
PLAY ON: as dog at San Diego (10/24)
NY JETS
TEAM THEME: ALL IN
Funny thing about Jets head coach Rex Ryan. He isn’t a salesman but you sure get the feeling he’s selling you something. Straight out of the World Series school of Poker Bluff, Ryan was not content playing the same hand that dealt the Jets 11 wins in 2009. Gone are G Alan Faneca, RB’s Thomas Jones and Leon Washington and CB’s Lito Sheppard and Donald Strickland. In their place he acquired CB Antonio Cromartie, LB/DE Jason Taylor, RB LaDainian Tomlinson and WR Santonio Holmes. There is no disguising the fact the Jets owned the No. 1 team defense and rushing offense (the magic hand) in the league last year. Ryan, the master of "I wasn't aware of that," when asked about being underdogs in the playoffs last year said, “To me we should be favorites. I mean in the whole tournament… I want this football team. If I had a choice to coach any team in this tournament, I would choose this one." Are you buying it?
PLAY ON: as dog at Miami (9/26)
AFC East Preview
By: Sean Higgs
Miami Dolphins - I am calling for a 10-6 season out of the Fish. They added WR Brandon Marshall who give QB Chad Henne another option to go with TE Anthony Fasano and the RB tandem of Ronnie Brown and Rickie Williams. The defense gets an upgrade with LB Karlos Dansby being brought in and by Miami using 7 of their 8 draft picks on this side of the ball. We will see if this team is for real early as they head to Minnesota on September 19th and follow that game with a prime time kick-off vs division foes the New York Jets.
New York Jets – I am calling for a 9-7 season in New York. There are a lot of expectations here. Some are saying Super Bowl or bust after their run to the AFC Championship Game last year. I don’t think that Darrelle Revis’ contract dispute will last into the season. It will make good show for them on HBO’s ‘Hard Knocks’ series though. This team is clearly going for it bringing in WR Santonio Holmes to pair with Braylon Edwards and another tough corner in Antonio Cromartie. Have to scratch your head a little with RB LaDainian Tomlinson being signed while they let work-horse Thomas Jones walk. Add in locker-room favorites Leon Johnson and Alan Faneca and you may have a bumpy clubhouse with the prima-donna LB Jason Taylor coming to town. This team is still lead by a second year HC and QB. I can’t possible the Jets getting further then they did last year.
New England Patriots – I am calling for a 8-8 season out of the Pats. Tough to put QB Tom Brady below two unproven arms, but this team is barely a shell of the Super Bowl teams of past. The defense has really no pass rush. I think the Pats best ball is behind them and HC Belichick has an uphill battle here. With WR Wes Welker is out and Torry Holt is on the wrong side of 30. It will be a matter of time before Randy Moss starts taking plays off and this season is lost.
Buffalo Bills – I am calling for a long season as the Bills. This team has a new HC in Chan Gailey but will be hard pressed to win more than 6 games they managed last year. We know that running the ball will be priority #1 with RB Fred Jackson who led the NFL in all-purpose yards, Marshawn Lynch is off an injury, but did rush for over 1,000 yards in both 2007 and 2008. Plus they added home-run hitter CJ Spiller in the draft. The coaching staff thinks Ryan Fitzpatrick or Trent Edwards can get the job done since they passed on Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy. The Bills do sport a solid secondary which led the lead in INTs but the front 7 is suspect as it switches over to a new 3-4 scheme.
AFC East Preseason Report
By: Tony Stoffo
Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season, especially this year with only 3 new head coaches throwing their hat into the ring. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money. This year as an example we have some teams on a 10-0, 11-1, and 15-2 preseason runs. Doesn’t get much better than that guys!!!
In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.
With 29 returning head coaches this season look for these solid early trends to really hold up big time for this preseason.
OK so here are this year’s highly rated preseason money making trends for each team starting with the AFC.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Head Coach: Chan Gailey - 1st year
The Bills are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in week # 1 of the preseason over the past 6 years. This is developing into one of my strongest preseason trends. This year’s play is on August13th as the Bills will face the Redskins. However in his two years in Dallas as head coach Gailey was a horrible 2-8 ATS
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm, and Levi Brown.
Miami Dolphins
Head Coach: Tony Sparano – 3rd year
Miami – With Bill Parcells taking over as executive VP for football operations of the Dolphins, and surrounding himself with all of his Dallas buddies including Tony Sparano. Have to look for continued improvement from Miami this preseason as Parcells always tried to win in the preseason. Even when he took over a bad Cowboys team he immediately started winning in the preseason.” Well this has turned an immediate profit as the Dolphins have won 7 of their 8 preseason games over the past two years including a perfect 4-0 last year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chad Henne, Chad Pennington, Pat White, and Tyler Thigpen.
New England Patriots
Head Coach: Bill Belichick – 11th year
New England – Belichick and the Patriots used to be a big money maker in the preseason thru the years. However since the Super Bowl rings have added up the preseason has just become a waste of time. Especially in the early preseason games as the Patriots have gone 1-5 ATS in their first 2 two preseason games over the past 3 seasons
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tom Brady, Brain Hoyer, Jeff Rowe, and Zac Robinson.
NY Jets
Head Coach: Rex Ryan – 2nd year
When Rex Ryan took over as the Jets new head coach last season everyone thought he would bring over the Ravens tough defense. He sure did in the regular season; however in the preseason Ryan cared less about showing his defense off as the Over was a perfect 4-0. So let’s look for more of the same this year with the over being the solid play in every Jets preseason game.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge, and Kevin O’Connell.
AFC East Preview
By Scott Rickenbach
Buffalo - The Bills offense was pathetic last season. Now, with Buddy Nix at General Manager and Chan Gailey at Head Coach, we certainly don't see things as greatly improved. The Quarterback position continues to be a work in progress. That said, a run heavy attack is unlikely to reignite this sluggish offense. Talk of Wildcat elements being in the offense this season also isn't overly impressive. We all saw what happened with the Dolphins offense starting to slowdown last season as defenses adjusted. Also, Buffalo's offensive line is a concern and that won't help the attack. As for the defense, a number of changes means an adjustment period early in the season. Another tough season in upstate New York.
Miami - Big acquisition was Brandon Marshall at wide receiver. That certainly should help the Dolphins offense take a step back in the right direction. Also, the defense made a movement toward more speed via youth. Though that could mean growing pains early in the season, the changes should eventually pay off. Picking up linebacker Karlos Dansby is also a key for this defense entering the 2010 season. With all the changes on defense and with a tough schedule early on in the season, look for the Dolphins to struggle early but then get stronger as the season goes on. The youth movement on defense should pay off rather quickly.
New England - The Patriots looked very old against the Ravens in their post-season exit last year. That's not a good sign of things to come for New England. Certainly they are still likely to contend for the AFC East but the Jets and Dolphins will be threats as well. Wes Welker's injury situation is concerning for the Pats offense. As for the defense, the changes for this season are significant and we expect the Patriots to have some struggles on that side of the ball. Last season, they simply did not generate a strong pass rush and then their inability to stop the run was exposed by Baltimore in the post-season. We are not sure that the players that the Patriots brought in are going to be the right fit. In other words, the Pats could continue to fall back from the lofty perch they had attained in recent seasons.
New York Jets - The Jets come into this season with big expectations. However, though they impressed in the post-season last year, let's not forget that they "snuck" into the playoffs. Everything came together just right for the Jets to get in. Now, with changes at running back for the Jets one has to wonder just how well the offense will perform this season. Even with the addition of wide receiver Santonio Holmes, one has to wonder how the offense will pan out with Sanchez at QB. Keep in mind, he had 20 int's against 12 td's last season. In other words, can he really lead this offense if the Jets lose some punch on offense as a result of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington having both departed at the running back spot. We still like the Jets but they could struggle more than many are expecting this year. It really depends on how well LaDainian Tomlinson and Joe McKnight can take over in the Jets backfield. It's a focal point worth keeping an eye on.