AFC East Schedule Outlook
By: Joe Nelson
While most of the recent NFL news has been bad, we have had a brief reprieve from thoughts of the labor dispute with the release of the NFL Schedule for the 2011 season. In most sports the season is long enough that most schedules even out but in the NFL the schedules are far from equal. The formula which places division against division and then place against place helps create the alleged parity that keeps the NFL interesting year to year and allows for teams to make quick turnarounds or falls. Over the next few weeks some analysis of the schedules for each division can give you a great gauge on what to expect this year, assuming all the games get played.
AFC East: The East was a well spaced out division last year with at least a three-game gap in the standings between each team. New England had the best record in the NFL but found a quick exit from the playoffs while the Jets were able to snag a wild card spot and advanced to the AFC Championship game. Miami took a step back last season going 7-9 while Buffalo struggled mightily out of the gate the Bulls played the second half of the season much better than a 4-12 team. The AFC East grabs a tough schedule this season as each team will face all four NFC East teams in inter-conference play and all four of those teams will be expected to be quality teams. A few years ago drawing the AFC West teams would have been a positive but the West has improved considerably and at least three of the four teams will be expected to be pretty competitive this season. Here is an early look at the schedule for each AFC East team, a lot may change with each team before the season starts but the schedule is set.
Buffalo Bills: After starting out 0-8 the Bills finished 4-4 down the stretch and three of the twelve losses came in overtime against playoff teams so the Bills will be a team that many expect to move forward in 2011. Buffalo will answer a lot of questions in the draft with the #3 pick but Ryan Fitzpatrick looked like a legitimate NFL quarterback last season and can at least be a placeholder for this team. The running game averaged just 107 yards per game last year but the bigger issue for the Bills was rush defense, featuring the worst numbers in the league allowing nearly 170 yards per game. By default the Bills had one of the best statistical pass defenses in the league but much of that was due to teams being able to rush with ease in the match-up. In the schedule draw the Bills feature a favorable home schedule as they will host Philadelphia and Washington from the NFC East and Oakland and Denver from the AFC West. With the fourth place schedule the Bills play at Cincinnati and host Tennessee. The road schedule is brutal for the Bills next season with seven of eight opponents being at least 7-game winners last season and the Bills will have to play three consecutive road games in November. The bye week is well placed in week seven but overall this does not look like a schedule that will lead to a big improvement. The AFC East should again be a very tough division with the Patriots and Jets likely entering the season as favorites to be AFC contenders and Miami could be a competitive team as well. The Bills should have a stronger start this season as the first half schedule looks easier than the second half schedule and the home schedule is much easier than the road schedule for Buffalo. Overall it will be hard for the Bills to make a big move as the schedules for the AFC East will be difficult.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins were 7-6 entering the final three weeks last season and looking like a team that might have a shot at the playoffs after upsetting the Jets in New York. Miami would lose close games the next two weeks at home to Buffalo and Detroit and then were blown out with a limited effort in the finale to fall to 7-9. Five of the nine losses came by eight points or less and for the year the Dolphins were only outscored by 60 points. Miami had excellent defensive numbers but the offense never really got going, especially struggling to run the ball. Miami had several impressive wins including winning at Minnesota early in the year, winning at Green Bay and at the Jets but the Dolphins incredibly went 1-7 in the eight home games. Miami shares the scheduling plan that Buffalo has which means the NFC East games and the AFC West games will feature the more favorable games at home and there will be tough road games, playing at the Giants and Cowboys from the NFC and also at San Diego and Kansas City from the AFC West. Getting the third place schedule brings Houston to Miami and the Dolphins will travel to Cleveland. Miami opens the season hosting the Patriots on Monday in a game that could set the tone for the season and the Dolphins could get off to a strong start as that is the only game against a 2010 playoff team in the first four weeks. Miami has an early season week 5 bye and it comes in the midst of a stretch of five road games in six games. Miami has to travel to the west coast to face San Diego right before the bye week and following a trip to Cleveland. From week 10 on the Dolphins have to like their chances if they can be above .500 at that point in the season. Five of the final eight games are at home and only three of the final eight opponents were playoff teams last year. The season closes with three consecutive division games, likely facing cold weather in Buffalo and New England in back-to-back weeks which could be a challenge if the games are meaningful. Miami is a team that could start out strong in 2011 and this should be a team that has a shot at the playoffs with a few upsets and avoiding a collapse late in the year through a tough closing schedule.
New England Patriots: It was a tough off-season for the Patriots after entering the postseason as heavy favorites only to fall to its division rival in the first game. New England was not overly impressive statistically last season, especially on defense as nine times opponents scored 20 or more points against the Patriots last season. The first place schedule adds two very difficult opponents to the mix that the rest of the division will miss as the Patriots will host the Colts and have to play at Pittsburgh. The toughest games are at home as all six games outside of the division at home will be against teams that most expect to be playoff caliber squads. The Patriots do have to go west twice with games at Oakland and at Denver but both of those games have to be considered of the winnable variety and road games at Washington and at Philadelphia are not overly threatening. New England closes the season with Washington, Denver, Miami, and Buffalo so a strong finish should be in the works for this team if the Patriots need to finish strong for playoff position. Twice this season will New England have to play back-to-back road games and the second game in each of those sets requires significant western travel which could make for tricky situations. The middle of the season will be very difficult for the Patriots as arguably the toughest eight games fall between week 5 and week 13 as there are no 2010 playoff teams in the first four or the final four games. The bye is placed in week 7, prior to a big showdown at Pittsburgh which could be an advantage for the Patriots and while this is not an easy schedule it is a schedule that can be suitable for another double-digit win season and a solid playoff spot.
New York Jets: The Jets have played in back-to-back AFC championship games from a wild card position, featuring an outstanding defense and a strong running game. The offense was certainly inconsistent and did not come close to matching the overall output that New England had but the Jets won two of three meetings last season including the one that counted. Moving up to the top of the division will not be easy but the Jets draw a slightly more favorable schedule than New England faces. The schedule for New York mirrors what New England has for four NFC East games and the four AFC West games in terms of location but the big advantage will be getting Jacksonville as the second place team from the AFC South while the Colts are found on New England's schedule. New York does have to play at Baltimore in what will be a huge early season game and what makes that game even tougher is that the Jets play at New England the following week, setting up three-straight road games. The Jets have a schedule that could start them in a hole early in the season as that three game stretch, at Oakland, at Baltimore, and at New England will feature taxing travel and demanding defenses. Following a week 8 bye week the Jets could really get on a run however. In the final nine games the Jets will play just three 2010 playoff teams and two of those games are at home. The rematch with the Patriots is in week 10 and the Jets will host Kansas City in week 14 before heading to Philadelphia in week 15. The Jets will alternate road and home games in the final nine games of the season and only a trip to Denver will require substantial travel. The Jets get to play its home division game second against both the Patriots and the Bills which is usually considered an advantage. Outside of the early season road gauntlet the Jets have a very balanced schedule and while this is a team that could easily start just 4-3 or worse, the Jets should have a strong finish to the season and be in the fight for the AFC East title and possibly one of the top seeds in the conference.