AFC In-Game Betting Notes
By Ted Sevransky
Teddy watches the games typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps simply don’t have. This week: AFC tidbits from Week 12.
Buffalo Bills
Ryan Fitzpatrick is locked in on Steve Johnson; a duo with tremendous chemistry and some pretty good playmaking ability. But you can't drop the game-winning TD pass in OT -- his fifth drop of the game -- and expect to be considered an elite receiver.
The Bills are most assuredly a 'character' team. They do not quit and seem to play better when facing adversity. Today, we saw another slow start followed by another strong second half – this team is worthy of a halftime wager when trailing.
Denver Broncos
For the third week in a row, Denver took the opening kickoff and marched down the field into the end zone without facing a single 3rd down. Two weeks ago, Denver continued its assault, scoring TDs on each of its first four drives while taking a 35-0 lead against KC. Last week, the Broncos followed up their impressive opening drive by allowing five unanswered touchdowns to the Chargers.
Josh McDaniels is clearly doing an excellent job with his scripted plays to open the game, and his propensity for receiving the opening kickoff makes supporting Denver with a first quarter bet an attractive option going forward. But once McDaniels goes off the scripted plays, this offense gets bogged down.
This defense is really getting pushed around, particularly in the secondary. That makes the Broncos one of the stronger 'Over' teams in the NFL right now.
Cleveland Browns
The revolving quarterback situation certainly isn't a good thing, but it's not a disaster either. This offense is about Peyton Hillis moving the chains between the tackles, not the passing game.
Jake Delhomme was fairly sharp early, showing no ill effects from the layoff. His field vision is much better than McCoy's, completing passes to five different receivers by the end of the first quarter; four completions of 19 yards or longer -- no dink and dunk here.
But Delhomme did what he does, throwing interceptions on his first two passes after halftime, including a key pick six to turn a comfortable lead into another nail biter.
Cleveland doesn't seem to do anything easily - they don’t win easy and they don’t lose easy making them a solid dog but poor chalk.
Kansas Chiefs
This team continues to run the football as well as anybody in the NFL. The Chiefs' ability to avoid negative plays in the running game, consistently putting them in positive down and distance situations, opens up the play action passing game for Matt Cassel.
This offensive line is really controlling the line of scrimmage, a unit that seemingly gets better by the week. And the defense allowed just one first down prior to the two minute drill of the first half.
This was really impressive performance in a very tough place to win. If you're looking for a longshot Super Bowl contender in a year where there is no clear favorite, put a few bucks on Kansas City.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Even though they blew this game in the fourth quarter, this performance at the Meadowlands made me think that the Jags are not likely to be on the wrong end of many more blowouts this year. Jacksonville is playing with a different level of confidence these days, on both sides of the football.
Two major problem areas remain: The Jags are now -13 in turnovers for the season, after losing the turnover battle again today. Last week, they turned it over five straight times to start the second half and they still won and covered. This week they were -2 in turnovers and still covered the spread, but that is the exception, not the rule in the NFL. And this pass defense continues to get torched by any decent quarterback they face, the direct cause of their second half collapse today.
Oakland Raiders
This front four on defense is really generating a nasty pass rush -- we're not seeing this team sell out on the blitz on every passing down the way they had to earlier in the season. But on third downs -- watch out!
Defensive coordinator John Marshall has a strong tendency to send everybody, creating vulnerability against the big play, but lots of sacks and mistakes from opposing QBs.
Bruce Gradkowski was not sharp here -- it's clear that his shoulder problems and the rust from his long layoff were affecting him negatively. And the Raiders offensive line got blown up for the second straight week, unable to generate any sort of a running game to balance the offense.
More than anything else, this loss came because Oakland was not the hungrier of the two teams, very bad news in a 'must win' home game late in the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben is an excellent bad weather quarterback. He's a huge guy with a massive arm, and his receivers are used to playing in cold, windy conditions. There isn't another QB in the league who I'd trust more in these types of late season conditions, all apologies to Tom Brady. Roethlisberger can throw through the wind, and with Rashard Mendenhall acting like a workhorse back -- 18 carries by the middle of the second quarter; 36 for the game - Big Ben's arm is that much more effective.
Mike Tomlin had him team practicing in full pads on the last few Wednesdays, something he hasn't done much of in recent years. It paid off early here, as the Steelers were clearly the more physical team when they raced out to a double digit first half lead. But did that practicing in pads leave the team out of gas late, vulnerable for a second half letdown? And for the second consecutive week, the Steelers had double digit penalties, continuing their recent trend of sloppy football.