Conference Championships
By Kevin Rogers
We're down to four teams left in the NFL playoffs with each team sporting a quarterback under the age of 28 as two spots for Super Bowl XLV are on the line. The Jets and Steelers meet for the second time in a month at Heinz Field for the AFC title, while the Packers and Bears redefine the "Black and Blue" division with their third meeting this season and the NFC Championship on the line.
Packers at Bears
These two rivals meet for the first time in the postseason since 1941 as the Bears aim for their first Super Bowl appearance in five seasons. Green Bay goes for its third consecutive road victory while making its second NFC Championship appearance since 2007, when the Packers lost in overtime to the Giants in Brett Favre's final game in the Green and Gold.
With Favre off the map, Aaron Rodgers has assumed the role of a new playoff hero for the Packers by tossing six touchdowns and no interceptions in wins over the Eagles and Falcons. Rodgers threw for just 180 yards in Green Bay's Wild Card victory at Philadelphia, but his three touchdown passes helped the Packers cash as one-point underdogs.
Green Bay was in the same 'dog spot at the Georgia Dome last Saturday night, as the Packers dominated the top-seeded Falcons, 48-21. Rodgers chopped up the Atlanta secondary with 366 yards passing, while tossing three more touchdowns as well as running in a score in the rout. Since throwing nine interceptions the first seven weeks of the season, the former Cal standout has thrown just two interceptions over the last nine games.
Rodgers faces a Bears' defense that finished the season ranked 20th against the pass (224.3 yards/game) and 2nd in the league stopping the run (90.1 yards/game). Chicago eliminated an upstart Seattle squad in the Divisional Playoffs, 35-24, barely covering as 10-point favorites. The final score made things look closer than what was witnessed in the first three quarters when the Bears led the Seahawks, 28-3. Seattle scored two touchdowns in the final three minutes to make the score look more respectable, but a Jay Cutler to Kellen Davis touchdown strike with five minutes left definitely upset 'under' players as the game cashed the 'over' of 42½.
The Bears controlled the clock last Sunday by having the ball for over 37 minutes, while Cutler was interception-free in his first playoff victory. The ex-Bronco cut his interception total from 26 in 2009 to just 16 in 2010, as Chicago improved to 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS this season when Cutler throws at least two touchdown passes. Even though Chicago began the season as a solid 'under' team, the Bears have cashed the 'over' in each of the last four games at Soldier Field.
The two teams split the two regular season meetings with the home club winning each time. The Bears rallied for a 20-17 victory on Monday Night football in Week 3, as Chicago overcame an early 10-0 deficit. The special teams lifted the Bears thanks to Devin Hester's 62-yard punt return and a pair of Robbie Gould field goals to pick up the outright win as three-point home underdogs. Green Bay dominated the game from a yardage standpoint, 379-276, while the Packers held the ball for over 35 minutes.
Mike McCarthy's team was in desperation mode the last time these rivals met in Week 17 at Lambeau Field. The Bears had nothing to play for as they the second seed wrapped up in the NFC Playoffs, while the Packers were playing their second consecutive "elimination" game after blowing out the Giants in Week 16 to stay alive. Green Bay failed to cover as 11-point 'chalk' in a 10-3 triumph, as the Packers received two big pass plays from Rodgers to Greg Jennings to set up the two scores.
The Packers are listed as 3½-point favorites, becoming the first road 'chalk' in a conference championship game since Philadelphia (at Arizona) in 2008. The total is set at 43½ with several 44's lingering out there, while temperatures are expected to be in the low 20's. The game kicks off at 3:00 PM EST and will be televised nationally on FOX.
Jets at Steelers
The Super Bowl card will be filled out late Sunday night following this epic showdown as New York plays in its second AFC Title Game in as many seasons. The Steelers are no stranger to this game, participating in the AFC Championship for the fourth time since 2004 and the second instance under Mike Tomlin. On the other side, Rex Ryan is attempting to get the Jets in the Super Bowl for the first time since way back in 1969 when Joe Namath helped upset the Colts, 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.
The Jets' road has not been an easy one by any stretch after knocking out Indianapolis and New England in the first two rounds. New York got a modicum of revenge in each triumph after the Jets were eliminated by the Colts in last season's AFC Title game with a 17-16 victory at Lucas Oil Stadium as one-point underdogs. Antonio Cromartie's big kickoff return following the go-ahead field goal by Indianapolis gave the Jets excellent field position, as Nick Folk's 32-yard field goal at the gun helped New York advance.
All the talk heading into the Divisional Playoff tilt was coming from the Jets' side as they looked to avenge a 45-3 beatdown in Foxboro on a cold Monday night in Week 13. New York responded to the challenge by eliminating New England, 28-21 as 9½-point underdogs to capture its fourth road playoff win in five tries. Mark Sanchez overcame two horrible efforts his previous two starts at Gillette Stadium (1 TD, 7 INT) with a three-touchdown gem as the Pats allowed their most points since Week 11 against Indianapolis (28).
The Steelers needed a massive rally against their rival last Saturday to shock the Ravens, 31-24 as 3 ½-point favorites to beat Baltimore for the second time this season. Ben Roethlisberger tossed two second-half touchdowns, while Rashard Mendenhall's two-yard plunge with 90 seconds left capped the comeback and gave Pittsburgh its third straight home playoff win. The game flew 'over' the total of 37½, as the two teams combined for just 389 yards (PIT - 263, BAL - 126).
These teams just saw each other a little over a month ago at Heinz Field as the Jets upended Steelers, 22-17 as 3 ½-point 'dogs. Troy Polamalu sat out that loss with a sprained ankle suffered the week before against Cincinnati as the Steelers' defense limited the Jets to 277 yards of offense. Sanchez's bootleg touchdown run on fourth down helped tie the game at 17-17, followed by a Folk field goal and late safety to put the win away for the Jets.
The Jets have been nearly an automatic 'over' play on the road this season, cashing in nine of 10 games. The lone 'under' hit in the Wild Card win at Indianapolis, as the total closed at 44. In games with the total listed at 40 or less, the Jets compiled an 8-2 'over' mark, including the closing number of 36 at Pittsburgh in Week 15. Pittsburgh is a coin-toss proposition to the 'over' at home with Big Ben under center, going 4-3 at Heinz Field since his suspension ended after Week 4.
All three of Pittsburgh's home losses this season came against playoff teams (Jets, Patriots, and Ravens), while owning a 6-3 ATS mark in Western Pennsylvania. The Jets continue to cash at a frantic rate on the road, putting together a 7-3 ATS ledger on the highway, including a 6-2 ATS record as an away underdog. Under Ryan (and Sanchez), the Jets have covered 67% of their road contests (14-7 ATS), as opposed to a pedestrian 8-8 ATS mark at home the last two seasons.
The Steelers are listed as 3½-point favorites for the second straight week, as Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS the last seven postseason games since 2005. The total is set at 38½, while temperatures are expected to settle in the low 20's. Kickoff is set for 6:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on CBS.
vegasinsider.com
Bears, Packers for NFC title
By: Stephen Nover
The 182nd meeting between border rivals Green Bay and Chicago takes place Sunday at noon PT on FOX at Solider Field.
Few, if any, of their games have been more important. At stake is the NFC championship and a trip to the Super Bowl.
Oddsmakers at the Las Vegas Hilton and TheGreek.com opened the Packers as three-point road favorites with added juice and an ‘over/under’ of 44. Some other places, including MGM Mirage and Station Casinos, opened the Packers as 3½-point favorites.
Green Bay certainly is riding a lot of momentum. The Packers are the ‘it’ team right now. But do they deserve to be favored?
The Bears are the healthier team, have covered both meetings versus Green Bay and hold a strong special teams edge with dangerous kick/punt returner Devin Hester.
Aaron RodgersQuarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler may hold the answer.
Rodgers has been sensational with 11 touchdowns and only one interception in his last four games. Cutler is streaky and lately he’s been on with a quarterback rating above 100 in five of his last seven games.
Rodgers takes good care of the ball. Cutler, though, was picked off 16 times during the regular season in 15 games. Green Bay ranked sixth in takeaways with 32 during the regular season.
The Packers defense held Michael Vick in check in their 21-16 wild-card road win against Philadelphia as one-point ‘dogs. Atlanta could manage just 14 points on offense against Green Bay last week.
Green Bay allowed just 45 yards on the ground to Atlanta and sacked Matt Ryan five times in its 48-21 victory as two-point road underdogs. That was Green Bay’s highest-scoring playoff game in its history.
Despite losing six contributors on defense for the season, the Packers still finished second in fewest points allowed at 15 per game and ranked fifth in total defense and pass defense.
No cornerback is playing better than Tramon Williams, who has picked off three passes the last two weeks.
Thanks to creative defensive coordinator Dom Capers, the Packers’ defense is diverse and unpredictable. Green Bay confused Vick by not blitzing more and bothered Ryan by frequently blitzing.
Chicago has gotten big years from Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher.
Still, the Bears have allowed an average of 31.2 points in their last four home games. These matchups have been from late November on when winter conditions makes the traction slick on the grass field at Solider Field. This has worked against Chicago’s defense, which relies on quickness rather than brawn.
The Packers have survived elimination games the past four weeks. This is their third consecutive road game. However, it’s only a short distance from Green Bay to Chicago. The Packers are 26-12-1 ATS in their past 39 road matchups.
The Bears were idle two weeks ago courtesy of winning the NFC North with an 11-5 mark. The Bears built a 35-10 lead on Seattle in last week’s divisional round matchup, winning 35-24 as 10-point home favorites.
Unlike the Packers, which lost 15 players to injuries for the season, the Bears are remarkably healthy. Chicago has won eight of 10 games since its regular-season bye.
One of those losses came to Green Bay, 10-3, during the last week of the regular season. Coach Lovie Smith, to his credit, played his starters and went all out despite the game not meaning anything to Chicago. The Packers were 11-point favorites with the combined 13 points going well ‘under’ the 43½-point total.
Chicago also covered in the first meeting upsetting the Packers, 20-17, in Week 3 as three-point home ‘dogs. The combined 37 points dipped ‘under’ the 45 ½-point total. The last six games in the series have gone ‘under.’
The Packers outgained the Bears by 103 yards, but allowed a 62-yard punt return touchdown by Hester and committed a franchise-worse 18 penalties, including one that wiped out a touchdown.
Jets, Steelers meet again
By: Michael Robinson
The New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers meet for the second time in five weeks when they battle in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday evening.
Bookmaker.com has Pittsburgh as 3½-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 38½-points. The Jets are plus 165 to pull off the upset.
New York (13-5 straight-up, 11-7 against the spread) is still riding the emotional high of its 28-21 win at New England as 9½-point ‘dogs. All the pre-game trash talk done by coach Rex Ryan and the players seem destined to blow up in their face, but they backed up every word.
The 49 combined points went ‘over’ the 45-point total. The ‘over’ is 9-1 in New York’s road games this year.
The Jets are building a reputation as road warriors (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS this year). They’re looking to pull off the road trifecta by beating elite quarterbacks Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger in consecutive weeks. They will certainly have earned their Super Bowl berth if they do.
New York is 4-1 SU and ATS in road playoff games over the last two years. It led at halftime (17-13) in last year’s AFC title game in Indianapolis before losing 30-17 as eight-point underdogs.
The Jets are trying to become the third wild-card team to win the Super Bowl recently in addition to Pittsburgh (2005) and the New York Giants (2007).
Pittsburgh (13-4 SU, 11-6 ATS) also beat a fierce division rival last week, 31-24 over Baltimore as 3½-point home favorites. The game swung on turnovers with Baltimore building a 21-7 halftime lead thanks to two Pittsburgh miscues. The Ravens returned the favor (and more) with three second-half turnovers leading to the stunning comeback.
The Steelers may have been somewhat fortunate, but they helped create the mistakes and are a ferocious team defensively. Pittsburgh is now 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games, only losing outright to the Jets (22-17 as 3 ½-point favorites). More on that game below.
Pittsburgh is playing in its third AFC title game in six years (winning the Super Bowl the two previous times). It won and ‘covered’ the conference title game at home against Baltimore two years ago, 23-14 as six-point favorites. Ryan was the Ravens defensive coordinator in that game.
During the 2005 season, Pittsburgh won in Denver 34-17 as three-points ‘dogs to advance to the ‘Big Game.’
The first meeting between New York and Pittsburgh was back on December 19. The Jets were reeling after consecutive losses at New England (45-3) and home to Miami (10-6). There was even talk that Ryan’s bunch could slump its way out of the playoff picture.
Instead, the Jets got an opening kickoff return for a touchdown from Brad Smith, giving them instant confidence. Pittsburgh battled back for a 17-10 lead in the third quarter, but New York scored 12 unanswered points to end the game. Roethlisberger and company were stopped at the Jets 10-yard line at the final gun.
Pittsburgh lost despite having the advantage in rushing (146-106) and total yards (377-276). It was playing without safety Troy Polamalu and the rushing yards allowed were way above its top-ranked regular season average (62.8 YPG). Baltimore rushed for just 35 yards last week.
Mark Sanchez threw for only 170 yards against Pittsburgh, but that’s an acceptable figure as long as he doesn’t turn it over and the rushing game is working. Sanchez has been held just under 200 yards in both playoff contests, but had a 127.3 quarterback rating last week in badly outplaying Tom Brady.
The Jets defense is feeling very good about itself after its last two games, but Roethlisberger provides a different challenge than Manning or Brady as he’s strong enough to break away from the pass rush and still make plays down the field.
Interestingly, the Jets have publicly said they’re not trash talking this week. Perhaps they don’t want to rattle the cage of a team they recently beat at home.
Brad Smith (groin injury) is questionable this week. His ability to run the wildcat wasn’t missed against New England, but could be a factor this week. Pittsburgh has a lot of players banged up, but only defensive end Aaron Smith (triceps) is expected to be out. He hasn’t played since October.
Kickoff from Heinz Field will be 3:30 p.m. (PT) on CBS. Early weather reports have it windy and temperatures only in the high teens.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Championship Weekend
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Why Packers cover: The strangeness continues this playoff season, as once again the road team ends up being favored. But with the way Green Bay is playing it is hard to argue with the spread. Chicago had the easiest matchup of the remaining teams this postseason when it hosted Seattle last week, whereas the Packers are coming off two convincing road victories against teams that could have easily ended up in the Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers is playing at a ridiculous level and may be the MVP of the playoffs so far. Through two games he has completed 78 percent of his passes while accounting for seven touchdowns (six passing, one rushing). Add to that a blitzing defense that is facing a quarterback that tends to throw interceptions and you have a recipe for Green Bay's first Super Bowl appearance since 1998. The Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Chicago.
Why Bears cover: If there is one thing the Bears do well, it is stopping Green Bay's powerful offense from scoring. In their two meetings this season, the Packers averaged a pathetic 13.5 points per game against Chicago, almost 11 points less than their season average. The Bears defense held Green Bay to an average of 61.5 yards rushing in those games, which puts a lot of pressure on Rodgers to carry the offensive load. Devin Hester is a game changer on special teams and when teams try to account for his presence as a kick returner, they often give up valuable field position just trying to stay away from him.
Total (43.5): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Why Jets cover: No team likes being the center of attention like the Jets. After waltzing into Foxboro and whipping the Patriots last week as 9.5-point dogs, they travel to face a Steelers team that they upset on the road in Week 15 as 3.5-point pups. Mark Sanchez has been a playoff road warrior boasting a 4-1 record away from home and has been enjoying some strong protection from his offensive line this postseason. LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene have combined for 271 yards rushing and four touchdowns in the Jets' two playoff games while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Steelers.
Why Steelers cover: They didn't have much problem dispatching their divisional last week and now get to face essentially a mirror-image of the Baltimore Ravens in the New York Jets. The similarities between the Jets and the Ravens must have the Steelers drooling. Both teams focus primarily on ball control via the run game while keeping opposing offenses honest with their suffocating defenses. Sanchez can be as brilliant or as inconsistent as Joe Flacco and if he plays anything like Flacco did last week (125 yards, 1 TD, 1 interception), the Steelers could take this game over in a hurry. Pittsburgh might not have to alter its game plan even though its opponent is different. Ben Roethlisberger was cool and efficient against Baltimore, competing 60 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and no picks and could be the difference maker if the game comes down to the wire.
Total (38.5): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
NFC Championship Game: What Bettors Need to Know
THE STORY: The NFL’s longest-running rivalry convenes for the 182nd time with a berth to the Super Bowl on the line. The Green Bay Packers and host Chicago Bears are two of the league’s most storied franchises, having won a combined 21 NFL titles (12 by the Packers). Amazingly, though, they have met just once in the postseason, way back in 1941.
Green Bay and Chicago split a couple of tight games this season, each winning on its home field. The Bears edged the Packers for the NFC North title and secured a first-round bye in the playoffs, putting Green Bay in the position of trying to become the fourth team in league history to win three straight road games to advance to the Super Bowl.
TV: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, FOX
OPENING LINE: Green Bay (-3), O/U 43.5
The spread has moved from a field goal to 3.5 as of Saturday afternoon. The total has started to fall, coming down to 43 points.
WEATHER: Cloudy with a chance of snow flurries with high temperatures in the low-20s. Winds at Soldier Field are expected to be light, blowing at 6 mph.
ABOUT THE BEARS (12-5, 10-6-1 ATS): The Bears were among the league’s biggest surprises, riding a stingy defense and slowly maturing offense en route to a division title. They never scored more than 27 points through their first 10 games, but have eclipsed the 35-point barrier three times in their last four contests. That included last weekend’s 35-24 drubbing of Seattle in the divisional round, a game in which Chicago bolted to a 28-0 lead.
Defensive end Julius Peppers and LB Brian Urlacher spark a physical defense that allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league and permitted the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Quarterback Jay Cutler has been criticized for some questionable decision-making, but he has a passer rating above 104.0 in five of his last seven games and, last week, became the first QB since Hall of Famer Otto Graham to have two passing and two rushing TDs in a playoff game. Running back Matt Forte rushed for over 1,000 yards and also had 51 catches while Devin Hester is the most dangerous return man in the game. He brought back a punt for a TD in Chicago’s win over Green Bay in Week 3.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (12-6, 11-7 ATS): Green Bay, which was on the outside of the playoff picture after back-to-back losses in Weeks 14 and 15, has hit its stride in the postseason behind a red-hot Aaron Rodgers. The Packers beat Michael Vick and Philadelphia (21-16) in the Wildcard Round before thoroughly dismantling No. 1 seeded Atlanta 48-21 last weekend in a game that was every bit as close as the score indicates.
Rodgers was magnificent, throwing for 366 yards and three TDs on 31-of-36 passing. He also ran for a TD as Green Bay scored 35 unanswered points and never punted in the contest. Rodgers has thrown an NFL-record 10 TD passes in his first three postseason games, and enters Sunday’s game with 22 TDs and two interceptions in his last nine overall. Rookie James Starks has made his first two starts in the postseason, giving the Packers a running game it lacked in the earlier meetings with the Bears. Not to be overlooked is Green Bay’s defense, which has allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL. CB Charles Woodson is a perennial Pro Bowler, but Tramon Williams has upstaged him with three interceptions in the two playoff wins.
PLAYERS TO WATCH: Peppers and the Bears must apply pressure to slow down Rodgers, who has been on an incredible roll but did struggle in the regular-season finale against Chicago. Offensively, Cutler must remain patient and not overly rely on his cannon arm to force the ball into a tight spot, especially against Green Bay’s superb cornerback tandem.
The Packers rushed for a total of 123 yards in the two meetings with the Bears – and 41 of that came from Rodgers. Starks has piled up 123 and 66 yards in the two playoff wins and needs to come through with another solid game to open the passing lanes for Rodgers. LB Clay Matthews had 13.5 sacks in the regular season and added three more in the postseason.
RECENT HISTORY: Chicago leads the overall series 92-83-6, but Green Bay has won four of the last six. The Bears won 20-17 on a last-second field goal by Robbie Gould in Week 3, a game in which the Packers committed an NFL-record 18 penalties. Green Bay got revenge with a 10-3 win in Week 17, although the Bears had nothing to play for after having locked up the No. 2 seed.
KEY INJURIES: Green Bay – DE Cullen Jenkins (calf), RB John Kuhn (shoulder), LB Clay Matthews (shin), DE Ryan Pickett (ankle), C Jason Spitz (calf), CB Charles Woodson (toe). Chicago – S Chris Harris (hip), LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee).
LAST WORD: No rivalry is steeped in as much tradition as that of the Bears and Packers. Chicago won six NFL titles under legendary coach George Halas, and the winner of Sunday’s matchup gets to hoist the Halas Trophy. A bigger prize awaits the winner of the Super Bowl – the Lombardi Trophy, named for legendary Packers coach Vince Lombardi, who won five NFL titles in seven seasons.
TRENDS:
- Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
- Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.
- Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Chicago.
AFC Championship Game: What Bettors Need to Know
THE STORY: The New York Jets bring their School of “Hard Knocks” tour to Pittsburgh, looking to beat the Steelers and take the final step in a season they have designated as Super Bowl or bust. To get there, New York will have to go through Pittsburgh – a feat it already accomplished this season with a 22-17 victory in Week 15 at Heinz Field.
The Jets will also be trying to follow the path carved in 2005 by the Steelers, who were the only No. 6 seed to win the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh will be hosting a league-record 15th conference championship game, having gone 7-7 in its previous 14 appearances. The Steelers also have won an NFL-high six Super Bowls, including two in the past five seasons.
TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS
OPENING LINE: Steelers -4, O/U 38
The spread has since dropped from -4 to 3.5 with some field-goal lines out there. The total has been on the rise since post, moving to 38.5 and 39 as of Saturday afternoon.
WEATHER: Chance of morning snow showers with a high temperature of 18 degrees.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (13-4, 11-6 ATS): Since the loss to the Jets in Week 15, the Steelers have ratcheted up their defense, allowing 12 points in their final two regular-season wins and putting on a clinic in the second half of last week’s 31-24 playoff win over archrival Baltimore. Trailing 21-7 at the half following a string of uncharacteristic turnovers, Pittsburgh limited the Ravens to 28 yards of offense in the second half, including minus-4 yards in the third quarter. The Steelers collected five sacks, including three by James Harrison, in holding Baltimore to 126 yards of offense for the game.
Ben Roethlisberger once again came up big in the clutch, completing a 58-yard pass on third-and-19 to set up the game-winning touchdown by Rashard Mendenhall with 93 seconds to play. Mendenhall ran for 100 yards in the first meeting against the Jets, given the Steelers a legit ground game that neither Indianapolis nor New England – New York’s two playoff victims – possessed. Tight end Heath Miller and big-play safety Troy Polamalu also will be in the lineup after missing the earlier meeting.
ABOUT THE JETS (13-5, 11-7 ATS): Coach Rex Ryan has talked the talk and his team has walked the walk in eliminating all-world quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back-to-back postseason wins. New York used its bruising ground game to outlast the Colts (17-16) and featured a nice blend of passing by second-year quarterback Mark Sanchez and the running of Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson to cut down the Patriots (28-21). Sanchez may have played his finest game as a Jet, throwing for three TDs and playing mistake-free football against New England.
New York’s defense, and cornerback Darrelle Revis in particular, took out Reggie Wayne – Manning’s favorite weapon – at Indianapolis, and last week collected five sacks and had Brady looking befuddled for much of the game. Wide receivers Braylon Edwards and ex-Steeler Santonio Holmes each had big touchdown grabs against New England and could be crucial against a Pittsburgh defense that allowed the fewest points and rushing yards this season. The Jets are hoping to get back Brad Smith, who ran the opening kickoff back 97 yards for a TD in the first meeting with the Steelers.
KEY PLAYERS: While the Jets were impressive in shutting down the Colts and Patriots, they were dealing with finesse offenses in both cases. Mendenhall is a workhorse back and the Steelers are willing to feed him the ball – he got 20 carries, albeit with minimal success, against Baltimore, one of the league’s top run defenses.
The Jets don’t figure to have much success on the ground against the Steelers, meaning Edwards and Holmes will get their chances against a vulnerable Pittsburgh secondary. Holmes, a Super Bowl MVP with the Steelers, had a spectacular touchdown catch that pretty much sealed the outcome against New England.
RECENT HISTORY: Prior to the victory in Week 15, the Jets had been 0-7 all-time in Pittsburgh.
KEY INJURIES: Jets: CB Drew Coleman (knee), S James Ihedigbo (knee, ankle), CB Darrelle Revis (hamstring), WR Brad Smith (groin), LB Jason Taylor (concussion). Steelers: DE Aaron Smith (triceps), S Will Allen (knee), WR Arnaz Battle (illness), CB Bryant McFadden (abdomen), S Troy Polamalu (achilles).
LAST WORD: With a victory Sunday, Sanchez will earn his fifth postseason road victory as a starting quarterback, which would be the most in NFL history.
TRENDS:
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff road games.
- Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff home games.
Total Talk - Championships
By Chris David
Playoff Recap
The Wild Card round watched the ‘under’ go 3-1, which was a bit shocking since the 2010 regular season has was dominated with an ‘over’ mark of 133-103-1 (56%). As it appears now, this year’s first round of the postseason was just a bump in the road. Sure enough, the ‘over’ train rolled to a 4-0 record in last week’s Divisional Playoff round and the last winning ticket was tough to stomach for ‘under’ players. The Jets held a 14-3 lead over the Patriots at the half and that gap was closed to 14-11 heading into the final quarter. Sure enough, the two teams combined for 24 points in the fourth and 14 of them could’ve been avoided if New York running back Shonn Greene took a knee before his late touchdown. He obviously didn’t and his score helped the combined 49 points jump ‘over’ the closing number of 45. Ouch…!
Coaches Corner
We’re going to hit on this section again, since it’s been golden for bettors so far. In our recent Total Talk playoff columns, we touched on total tendencies in the playoffs for certain coaches.
Gamblers watched Green Bay defeat Philadelphia 21-16 in the Wild Card round, which fell ‘under’ the closing number (46). Did you know that this was the 10th straight home playoff game for the Eagles under Andy Reid that failed to eclipse 43 points? And it was the seventh that has watched 37 or less posted on the board.
Last week, we provided three tendencies and one was burned due to the aforementioned Patriots-Jets outburst at the end. Prior to that ‘over’ ticket, Bill Belichick saw all six of his Divisional Playoff games go ‘under’ the number. It certainly should be 7-0 but 6-1 to the ‘under’ is a trend to watch in the number.
While Belichick and the Pats couldn’t stop a nose bleed (Thanks Bart Scott) last Sunday, there were two other coaches that may’ve helped bettors cash totals and the pair are back in action this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Mike Tomlin Playoff Log
Round (Date) Opponent Score Total Result
Divisional - Jan. 15, 2011 Baltimore 31-24 OVER (37)
Divisonal - Jan. 11, 2009 San Diego 35-24 OVER (37.5)
Conference - Jan. 18, 2009 Baltimore 23-14 OVER (35)
Super Bowl - Feb. 1, 2009 Arizona 27-23 OVER (46.5)
WildCard - Jan. 5, 2008 Jacksonville 29-31 OVER (40.5)
Chicago Bears - Lovie Smith Playoff Log
Round (Date) Opponent Score Total Result
Divisional - Jan. 16, 2011 Seattle 35-24 OVER (42)
Divisional - Jan. 14, 2007 Seattle 27-24 OVER (37.5)
Championship - Jan. 21, 2007 New Orleans 39-14 OVER (43)
Super Bowl - Feb. 4, 2007 Indianapolis 17-29 UNDER (47)
Divisional - Jan. 15, 2006 Carolina 21-29 OVER (30.5)
Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin and Chicago’s Lovie Smith both earned their head coaching spots as former defensive coordinators. It’s obvious that this year’s Steelers and Bears have great defensive units. However, when looking at the postseason history (above) for both Tomlin and Smith, it’s been nothing but high-scoring contests. Tomlin is 5-0 to the ‘over’ and Smith is 4-1 to the ‘over’ with the lone loser coming in Super Bowl XLI, which just fell ‘under’ the number.
Will the trends continue this Sunday?
System Plays
Prior to the start of the 2010 football season, VegasInsider.com unveiled its Football Forecast. Along with future predictions and analysis from our top experts, we also listed some proven football systems at the back of the publication (Page 21). Readers following this column on a regular basis are well aware of the “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. Over the last six seasons, the ‘over’ went 22-8-2 (73%) in those contests and there five instances in this year’s regular season. The results were 3-2, improving the overall number to 25-10-2 (71%). As it happens often, a lot of these results occurred in the playoffs and perhaps it’s a coincidence that both the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets will be playing their third straight road game on Sunday.
Sunday’s Showdowns
Green Bay at Chicago: Some bettors could be scratching their heads on this total (43), especially when you look at the recent history between the two NFC North squads. The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight and eight of the last 10. And, the two games that did go ‘over’ the number only saw 42 and 47 points posted. In case you forgot, Green Bay had some gunslinger named Brett Favre in those contests, which occurred during the 2007 season.
Chicago and Green Bay combined for 37 points (20-17) from Soldier Field on Sept. 27 in the first encounter this season, and then just 13 (10-3) at Lambeau Field in Week 17, which was a meaningless tilt for the Bears. The totals were 46 and 43 in those contests. Is Sunday’s number too high considering the past history? After watching QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put up 48 points last Saturday night at Atlanta, the public perception is high on Green Bay’s attack. Not to mention, everybody watched Chicago notch a 35-spot on Seattle in the Divisional Playoffs last Sunday. While a lot of pundits believe the Bears’ offense isn’t as consistent as Green Bay’s unit, it should be noted that the team did score 40 and 38 against the Vikings and Bears in Week’s 15 and 16 respectively. Also, Chicago watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 in the nine games from Soldier Field and the ‘over’ is on a 7-1 run heading into this matchup.
What you might not know is that Green Bay has been an ‘under’ team (11-7) all season, especially outside of Wisconsin. Even though last week’s effort against the Falcons easily went ‘over’ the number, the ‘under’ has produced an 8-2 record in the Packers’ 10 road games this season.
N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh: The Jets edged the Steelers 22-17 in Week 14 and the combined 39 points barely slid ‘over’ the closing number of 36. The game was tied 10-10 at the break before the total was locked up when the scored reached 17-17 midway through the third quarter. New York closed the game with a 5-0 run in the fourth and earned the road victory. Ten of the 22 points put up by the Jets came via defense and special teams. Those scores can never be handicapped and those plays are often ‘under’ killers when you have low totals as was the case here. Delving into the box score further, the tempo was definitely geared toward a low-scoring affair when you look at the number of possessions for both Pittsburgh (9) and New York (8).
The second meeting from Heinz Field between the pair has watched the ‘over/under’ spike up to 38 ½ points, which could be directly related to last week’s efforts. New York scored 28 and Pittsburgh had 31 in their Divisional Playoff victories. And, both teams gave up 21 and 24 respectively as well.
Including last week’s winning ‘over’ ticket against New England, the Jets have watched the ‘over’ go 9-1 in their road games this season. Pittsburgh has seen more lower-scoring affairs this year, with the ‘under’ going 9-8, which includes a 5-4 mark at home.
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Conference Championships Preview
By Tom Stryker
The NFL may not have been able to script this week’s two divisional championship games if they did it in advance. One game features the Chicago Bears hosting the Green Bay Packers in another renewal of pro football’s oldest rivalry. The other matches Super Bowl savvy Pittsburgh against the team many love to hate – the New York Jets.
Perhaps it is a surprise that all four are still alive – considering much that slowed, delayed or otherwise hampered their march to this championship set of matchups.
The Bears did not have many believers after a 4-3 start, but they simply kept winning and locked up the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Packers were slowed by an injury to Aaron Rodgers, then had to defeat Philadelphia and top-seed Atlanta, both on the road, to get here.
Pittsburgh, with Ben Roethlisberger serving early season suspension for offseason antics, nonetheless posted a 12-4 regular-season mark before defeating Baltimore last weekend. The Jets, with mouthy and arrogant Rex Ryan at the helm, had to beat Payton Manning and Tom Brady on successive weekends to reach this final round of the playoffs.
Let’s take a look at the championship matchups.
CHICAGO BEARS vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS
It’s the rubber match of the season as the teams split regular-season games – both being decided by 7 points. These two know each other well – they have posted a 92-83-6 record over the years in what is the longest rivalry in the NFL. But the Pack has won four of the last six.
Jay Cutler, taken two years ago from Denver, is playing the best quarterback of his career at the moment – a good omen for the Bears. Cutler has thrown for 3,274 yards, including 23 TDs (16 interceptions). But Aaron Rodgers has made the Packer crazies quickly forget Brett Favre. Rodgers has thrown for 3,922 yards, 28 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions.
Both teams feature hard-nosed, aggressive defenses. The Bears have had some weak moments on "D" during the season, however, allowing 36 points to New England, 34 points to the New York Jets, 24 to Seattle in last week’s playoff victory over the Seahawks and 26 earlier to Philadelphia.
Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Julius Peppers hold the key to Bear’s fortunes in what is sure to be a cold and windy Soldier Field on Sunday. Look for kicker Robbie Gould (25 out 30 field goals this season) to be a key intangible – along with the league’s best kick returner – Devin Hester.
Yet Green Bay loves its defense, the unit that has held opponents to 10 points or fewer six times this season. Charles Woodson is a big-play, big-game guy, and A.J. Hawk and Clay Matthews give the Pack a linebacking duo that can match the Bears.
Mike McCarthy and Lovie Smith know each other’s game plans well – so execution is likely to be the key this Sunday.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. NEW YORK JETS
All season long Rex Ryan has mouthed that the New York Jets are a Super-Bowl worthy team. And now his squad is one more tough game away from reaching that goal. The Jets have just completed one of the most improbable playoff runs – defeating Payton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts, then Tom Brady and AFC No. 1 seed New England – in successive weeks on the road.
A confusing man-to-man defense, with plenty of pressure up front has paid dividends for the Jets, who six times this fall held opponents to 10 points or less (but two of those were losses).
Second-year quarterback Mark Sanchez has minimized his mistakes, and is heading to Pittsburgh having thrown for 3,291 yards, with 17 TDs and 13 interceptions. The running game of New York has been bruising – with a rejuvenated LaDainian Tomlinson leading the way. Taken after San Diego released him, Tomlinson leads the Jets with 914 yards rushing. But Shonn Greene gives the Jets depth and versatility at running back. Green has added 766 yards to the New York attack.
Of course, when you speak of defense, you better mention the Steelers. Always physical, Pittsburgh has limited opponents to 11 points or fewer an amazing 10 times this fall. And Pittsburgh is still smarting from a 22-17 loss at home to New York on Dec. 19.
Veteran Ben Roethlisberger leads the Steelers offensively, as always. In the 2010 campaign, Big Ben has thrown for 3,200 years with 17 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Rashard Mendenhall is the key to the running game. Mendenhall has piled up 1,273 yards and 13 TDs for Pittsburgh. Mike Wallace is Roethlisberger’s favorite target. Wallace has caught 60 passes for 1,257 yards and 10 TDs.
Tips and Trends
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
PACKERS: (-3.5, O/U 44) Green Bay has been so impressive during the playoffs that they are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Pretty amazing considering the Packers have had to play each of their playoff games on the road. The Packers are 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS overall this season. Green Bay is 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS on the road this year. The Packers are 4-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 2-0 SU and ATS during the playoffs. QB Aaron Rodgers has been so amazing this season, as he's joined the status of elite QB in the NFL. Rodgers directs an offense that just put up 48 PTS against the Falcons last week. Rodgers threw for more than 3,900 YDS and 28 TD's during the regular season. WR Greg Jennings had 1,265 receiving YDS and 12 TD's this year for Green Bay. The Packers defense is what has transformed this team into a Super Bowl contender this year. Green Bay has been stellar all season defensively, and have allowed a total of 37 PTS to Atlanta and Philadelphia combined during the playoffs. The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on grass. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the NFC. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Packers are 1-5 ATS last 6 playoff games as the listed favorite.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games as a road favorite.
Key Injuries - S Atari Bigby (groin) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
BEARS: Chicago has already been the listed underdog twice to Green Bay this year, so they aren't even batting an eye today. The Bears split the season series with the Packers this year, but did go 2-0 ATS. Chicago is 12-5 SU and 10-6-1 ATS overall this season. The Bears are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS at home this year. The Bears are 6-2 ATS as the listed underdog, including 2-1 ATS as the listed home underdog. QB Jay Cutler has been outstanding at leading this Bears offense. Cutler threw for 3,274 YDS and 23 TD's this season, against 16 INT's. Chicago averaged 20.9 PPG during the regular season, and are coming off a 35 point outburst against Seattle last week. WR Johnny Knox had 960 receiving YDS and 5 TD's this season for the Bears. Defensively, the Bears allowed just 17.9 PPG this year, 4th fewest in the NFL. This Bears defense only allowed 90 YPG rushing this season, the 2nd fewest in the league. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Bears are 6-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC North. Chicago is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win.
Bears are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as the listed underdog.
Over is 5-1 last 6 playoff home games.
Key Injuries - DB Chris Harris (hip) is questionable.
Projected Score: 17
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
JETS: New York has been a resilient football team all season long, and it's aiding them tremendously this postseason. Despite nonstop off the field distractions all season long, the Jets are 1 victory away from a Super Bowl berth. New York has beaten both Indianapolis and New England on the road during the playoffs. The Jets are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS overall this season. New York has played their best football away from home this year, where they are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS. The Jets are 5-2 both SU and ATS this season as the listed underdog. QB Mark Sanchez is going to have to play the game of his life in order for the Jets to advance to the Super Bowl. Considering how it's nearly impossible to run on the Steelers, the passing game will be vital tonight. Sanchez threw for nearly 3,300 YDS and 17 TD's this year. WR Braylon Edwards had more than 900 receiving YDS this season, including 7 TD's. WR Santonio Holmes will get a chance to beat the team that he played a vital role for the last time they went on a Super Bowl run. Defensively, New York is playing as ss well as they have all season in slowing down both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady led defenses. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New York is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the AFC. The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on grass. New York is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in January. The Jets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Jets are 9-4 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Jets are 14-6 ATS last 20 games as the listed road underdog.
Over is 10-1 last 11 road games.
Key Injuries - WR Brad Smith (groin) is questionable.
Projected Score: 13
STEELERS: (-3.5, O/U 38.5) Pittsburgh is used to playing in big games in the month of January. The Steelers are hosting the AFC Championship game tonight against a team that has already won in Pittsburgh this year. Revenge will certainly be on the minds of Steelers faithful tonight. Pittsburgh is 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS overall this season. The Steelers are 6-3 both SU and ATS this season at home, thanks to the same exact result both SU and ATS at home this year. The Steelers are 4-5 ATS this season as a favorite up to a TD this season. QB Ben Roethlisberger will be counted on to lead the Steelers to victory tonight. Roethlisberger has thrown for 3,200 YDS and 17 TD's this season. RB Rashard Mendenhall rushed for 1,273 YDS and 13 TD's this year for the Steelers. Despite scoring 31 PTS last week against the Ravens, the Steelers only had 263 total YDS last week. In order to advance to the Super Bowl, the Steelers will have to be better than that tonight. Defensively, the Steelers are as good as ever. Pittsburgh allowed an NFL low 14.5 PPG this season, including an NFL low 62.8 YPG rushing. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games played in January. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as the listed favorite. The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on grass. Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the AFC.
Steelers are 5-0 ATS last 5 playoff home games.
Over is 10-1 last 11 playoff home games.
Key Injuries - LB James Harrison (shoulder) is probable.
Projected Score: 23 (SIDE of the Day)