AFC NORTH DIVISION 2009 FOOTBALL PREVIEW
Marc Lawrence
Often looked upon as a mediocre division, the frigid AFC North is home to three of the last eight Super Bowl winners.
It’s also where residing teams are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS on the conference playoff road outside the North since the division realignment in 2002.
Check out conditions in the AFC North before dipping your toes in the water this season. You might be surprised at what you find.
A new coach, a defending Super Bowl champion, and a Pro Bowl quarterback on the mend add plenty of intrigue to an already intriguing division.
Here is my take of teams in the AFC NORTH DIVISION for 2009. Coming up next: the AFC SOUTH DIVISION. Enjoy…
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE
Team Theme – SOFT SHELL CRABS
Another first-year coach, in tandem with another rookie QB, took his team directly to the playoffs last year when John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco piloted the Ravens to an 8-win increase to tie the Falcons for most improved honors in the league. We believe Baltimore, like Atlanta, will take a step back in 2009, if not on the scoreboard, then in the ATS wars. You simply don’t pick up 19 net-pointspread wins from one season to the next without paying the price. Because of that sudden success, the Ravens will be favored more often this year than last and that is almost always a tough-shell to crack for teams that go from ‘loser-to-winner’ in one season. A softer, aging defense may pay the price behind new defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, the DC with the Florida Gators last season. Look for the Sophomore Jinx to hit Crabtown in 2009.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Green Bay (12/7)
CINCINNATI
Team Theme – OCHO STINKO
It’s the TO’s and the Ocho’s of the professional football world that drag the integrity of the NFL game to the street level of pimps gone bad. If you disagree, check the win-lost record of the saps that sign their paycheck and report back. Despite the observation, the Bengals hope to be a team on the rise in 2009. Pro Bowl QB Carson Palmer is back and that, in itself, is big news for Cincinnati. It’s the Miami Herald’s Armando Salguero’s contention that Palmer carried the Bengals when he was healthy and the defense was lousy. This year, the defense has improved and, as a result, there is a new attitude on the team. “Definitely, by far, it’s been the best off-season program since I’ve been here. Everyone (other than Ocho Cinco) has been here to work and that has been great for us,” says Palmer. We’re not casting aspersions. You draw the parallel.
PLAY ON: vs. Detroit (12/6)
CLEVELAND
Team Theme – PUNCH DRUNK
The Browns were the classic case of a rags-to-riches team last season and they paid the price. Off a champagne-high in 2007, the NFL rewarded the high-scoring Kardiac Kids last year by featuring them in five nationally televised contests. Reality settled in and Romeo Crennel and his 24-40 record was shipped out. As a result, Eric Mangini, former New York Jets coach and Cleveland Browns ball boy, returns home to clean up the mess. Mangini is another in a long line of Bill Belichick students and appears to be a good fit for a program looking to regain its identity. He will need to address an offense that lost its punch and a defense that has become a punching bag. Not a good combination, to say the least. The Leatherheads will be bobbing and weaving until December, when they play half of their home games of the season from that point forward. Duck!
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. San Diego (12/6
PITTSBURGH
Team Theme - SIXBURGH
Mike Tomlin gets it. Like his predecessor, Bill Cowher, Tomlin knows both the importance or playing tough defense (The Steeler "D" has allowed just 256 YPG under Tomlin) and the significance of winning division games (Pittsburgh is 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS vs division foes the last two years). Those numbers are the main reason why the Black-and-Gold picked up its sixth Super Bowl title last year despite facing the most difficult schedule in the league. Surprisingly, despite their crowning moment last year, the Steelers will take on the fourth-softest schedule in 2009. A minor cause of concern is a declining offense, one that has slipped each season behind Tomlin. On a larger scale, the weight of being a defending Super Bowl champion can be heavy. Mixed with Pitt’s 7-14 ATS mark against teams that currently reside in the NFC North division, we don’t for see a 7th heaven of the Steelers this year.
PLAY ON: as favorites vs. Chicago (9/20)
NFC North Predictions
By LARRY JOSEPHSON
Timing is everything.
Minnesota and Chicago entered the final week of last season at 9-6, each needing a win to get into the playoffs. The Bears ran up against a motivated Houston team, and lost; the Vikings faced a bored Giants club that was resting some starters, and won.
The result: Minnesota in, Chicago out. That simple.
Fast forward to 2009, and it looks like a three-horse race in a division that is unlikely to provide a wild-card entry, giving every one of the 12 division games playoff significance.
Minnesota Vikings
Projected win total: 8.5
Prediction: Under (with Favre) Over (without Favre)
Ok, Brett. We love you. You’re great. No one was ever better. You the man. We’ll name first-born sons after you.
Now will you go away?
Do you really think things would have been different with Favre, and not Tavaris Jackson, under center in that playoff game against the Eagles last January? Then you need to review tapes of the final five games that the Jets played in 2008, or the Packers’ final (playoff) game in 2007.
Will Favre be happy handing off to Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor 30 times, and completing 8 to 10 passes in a 14-10 victory?
Uh, no.
Besides Favre, much of the Vikings off-field drama has centered on the four-game suspensions for defensive linemen Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. They’re fighting the suspensions in court (Roger Goodell must love that). The two D-tackles won’t be suspended anytime soon thanks to a resent ruling from Judge Gary Larson.
Rookie wideout Percy Harvin is off to a great start. In February Harvin tested positive for marijuana at the scouting combine, then followed that up by missing the league rookie symposium and Vikings rookie camp due to illness. He should fit right in well with the Vikes.
Surprising stat: Despite Minny's struggle passing the ball, the club still completed 12 plays of 40 yards or more through the air, good for fourth best in the league.
Chicago Bears
Projected win total: 8.5
Prediction: Over
Poor Jay Cutler. He shoots his way out of Denver, is treated like a pharaoh as he struts into Chicago, and is still only the No. 2 diva in a division, behind Favre.
But Cutler has excited the masses in Chicago, who look at the Bears roster that has halfway decent talent and an NFC North division that is eminently winnable.
Forget that Cutler was the architect of that monumental collapse that cost the Broncos a playoff spot last season, or that he had his fingers crossed behind his back when he said that no, he actually didn’t ask to be traded. None of that matters to Bears fans, who envision Cutler firing passes all over Soldier Field.
Cutler’s receivers (Greg Olsen, Devin Hester, Earl Bennett) could be the worst group in the entire league. Any success Cutler has throwing should make things easier for running back Matt Forte, who stayed healthy all last season and finished seventh in the league in rushing.
Defensively, the Bears have issues. Tommie Harris is a stud tackle, but could use some help on a D-Line that needs to get to the quarterback more. Brian Urlacher may not be at 100 percent after neck surgery and Lance Briggs may be the best LB on the team.
Problems accelerate away from the line of scrimmage, though, and lots of eyes will be on the secondary. Only San Diego and Seattle gave up more passing yards last season.
Surprising stat: Three times last season Matt Forte rushed for more than 100 yards in a game. All were on artificial turf (Indianapolis, Detroit and St. Louis).
Green Bay Packers
Projected win total: 8.5
Prediction: Under
When your team has enough offensive juice to put up 419 points in a season and still doesn’t get a sniff of the playoffs, even Bud Selig could tell you where the fault lies.
To cure its defensive problems the Packers hired Dom Capers away from the Patriots. Capers plans to move the Pack to a 3-4 defense, using first-round draft choices on DT B.J. Raji and LB Clay Matthews. The 3-4 will also enable LB A.J. Hawk to run wilder and make plays.
How fast GB’s young defense can make the adjustment will probably determine whether or not the Pack can get to 9-7 or 10-6 and into the upper echelon of the North.
Assuming halfway decent health, Aaron Rogers can be plugged in at QB for the next decade. Rogers was easily the best QB in the division last season, and his numbers (4,308 yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs and 63 percent completion average) pretty much were what GB got out of Favre in 2007, without the drama.
The under is the play here only under the assumption that it will take time to adjust to the new defensive formation.
Surprising stat: The Packers were 3-7 ATS in non-NFC North games last season.
Detroit Lions
Projected win total: 4.5
Prediction: Under
It all starts (and perhaps ends) with protecting the quarterback, be it Daunte Culpepper or Matthew Stafford.
If new coach Jim Schwartz likes what he sees from the offensive line halfway through the exhibition season, chances seem good that the Lions will see what they have in Stafford. If not, Culpepper draws the short straw and will have the opportunity to get ripped to shreds.
Assuming Stafford moves right in, the Lions will probably shrink the playbook and keep it basic until the game starts to slow down, in much the same way the Steelers did when Ben Roethlisberger was a rookie.
Lions fans fantasizing about a vertical offense centered around Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson will have to wait until the line and the running game get sorted.
The Lions have made a few moves to improve a defense that has progressively given up more points in each of the last four years, maxing out at 517 (33-plus per game) last season.
Linebackers Larry Foote and Julian Peterson, plus cornerback Philip Buchanan, are newcomers and will hopefully make the Lions D strong enough so thousands will not vomit their turkey dinners on Thanksgiving afternoon.
Surprising stat: The Lions won all of their exhibition games last season.