AFC North is Pittsburgh's to lose
By LARRY JOSEPHSON
If you’re an Ohio football fan and you’re sick and tired of the Bengals and Browns playing Baltic and Mediterranean to Pittsburgh’s Boardwalk and Baltimore’s Park Place, the chances are real good that come January you will be even sicker and more tired.
The Ravens and Super Bowl-champ Steelers went 10-2 in the AFC North last season and were a combined 8-0 in the division against the Brownies and Bengals. Cleveland and Cincinnati split against each other in 2008, accounting for their combined two division wins.
Not much has changed, although there are stirrings in Cincinnati as Carson Palmer finally begins a season at near 100 percent.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected win total: 10.5
Prediction: Over
First, the good news. At last check Ben Roethlisberger was still in one piece, which is a bit of a surprise considering he has been sacked about 140 times over the last three seasons. No wonder he shrugged off that motorcycle accident.
All of the sack time was courtesy of a very loose offensive line on a team that got hot at the right time and went on to win the Super Bowl.
After the season the Steelers knew they had to make a few moves up front, and cut loose OL Marvel Smith and Kendall Simmons, both of whom will be replaced in-house (Pittsburgh doesn’t do free agency).
Willie Parker has been a horse in the backfield, but the Steelers figure to follow a lot of teams into the two-back system, especially if Rashard Mendenhall (hurt all last season) can produce the way they hope.
Whatever warts that surfaced when the Steelers had the ball last year were pruned away by the league’s best defense, which returns pretty much intact this September. Bloggers in western Pennsylvania can talk about lack of depth in the Front 7, but that’s nitpicking.
Even if Pittsburgh doesn’t replicate the 2008 defense which held opponents to 80 rushing yards, 277 yards overall and less than 14 points a game, it should still be enough to bail out the offense and produce a double-digit win total. The Steelers locked up defensive player of the year James Harrison for six years ($51 million), and they’ll be content to fill in around him with drafted talent.
Surprising stat: The Steelers scored just about a touchdown more in playoff games last season than they did in the regular season.
Baltimore Ravens
Projected win total: 8.5
Prediction: Over
From late October on the Ravens were the best cover team in the NFL. Starting with an Oct. 19 spanking of the Dolphins in Miami, Baltimore covered the number 10 of 12 times before the train stalled in the AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh.
That basically sums up Baltimore’s annual problem of being a very good team in a division which also houses the league’s best team.
The Ravens tend to not make dramatic offseason moves, and the spring/summer of ’09 is no different. Gone are defensive coordinator Rex Reed, LB Bart Scott, and retired wideout Derrick Mason and placekicker Matt Stover.
The replacements are no-namers, but second-year coach John Harbaugh is hardly concerned. What he has left is surely good enough to beat back the Bengals and Browns, and challenge for a wild-card spot again.
At M&T Bank Stadium it starts and ends with defense, specifically the linebacking group that includes Ray Lewis and the recently re-signed Terrell Suggs. The defense created so much mayhem for opposing quarterbacks that the Ravens led the league in interceptions, with 26. Safety Ed Reed had nine on his own.
Second-year QB Joe Flacco will be allowed to free-lance a bit more, but the 2009 Ravens’ offense will be run-oriented and focused on limiting mistakes. Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le’Ron McClain all figured to get their share of carries.
Surprising stat: Joe Flacco’s passing accuracy improved by nearly 10 percentage points in the second halves of games last season -- 65 percent, to 55 percent in the first halfves.
Cincinnati Bengals
Projected win total: 6.5
Prediction: Over
Are things slooooooooowly starting to turn in Cincinnati? The Bengals open training camp in the next few days with a healthy quarterback, a pair of A-1 wide receivers, a couple of solid free agent signees, and draft choices that everyone seems to like.
To make a serious playoff run, strange things would have to happen to several AFC teams ahead of them in the AFC pecking order, but optimism seems to be taking hold in Cincy after two years spent drawing dead.
The signing of WR Lavernaeus Coles more than replaces the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and maintains balance at the position. It also gives QB Carson Palmer a clutch receiver who will not have a mid-game or mid-season meltdown the way Chad Ochocinco annually does.
The Bengals are enthused about the free agent additions of safety Roy Williams and DL Tank Johnson, both plucked from Dallas, and their two top draft choices, tackle Andre Smith and linebacker Ray Maualuga, both should play right away.
Surprising stat: The Bengals scored fewer than 20 points in nine of their last 11 games and finished the 2008 season with four straight unders.
Cleveland Browns
Projected win total: 7
Prediction: Under
Eric Mangini.
Eric Mangini???
The Browns jumped quickly to hire Mangini, though thousands of fans in the Cleveland area would love to know what in Mangini’s past is evidence that he can turn around one of the few NFL franchises that has yet to play in a Super Bowl.
Whatever. Mangini now has the keys to the car, and he inherits a slew of problems, not the least of which is figuring out a way to get the Browns into the end zone every now and then.
Cleveland went the last six games of the 2008 season without an offensive touchdown, which is one of the five warning signs that your team stinks.
Brady Quinn has done little over the past two seasons to prove that he can move the team, but he’ll start this year and Derek Anderson will be the league’s most expensive backup QB.
TE Kellen Winslow has departed and can do his best to wreck the Tampa Bay locker room, but Braylon Edwards returns and will hopefully avoid leading the league in dropped passes again this season.
The franchise does have some talent. Shaun Rogers is a top-tier nose tackle, and D’Qwell Jackson is a tacking machine at the linebacker position.
Surprising stat: The Browns have lost to the Steelers 11 straight times.