AFC North Preview and Picks
By David Chan
The Pittsburgh Steelers have ruled this division over the years. But the Cincinnati Bengals served noticed last season that there’s a new gunslinger in town. As hard as it is for some people to believe, the Bengals dominated the division in 2009 with a 6-0 record.
As preseason approaches, with the Steelers mired in a quarterback controversy and the Cleveland Browns still in a rebuilding mode, the division shapes up as a two-horse race between the Bengals and the Joe Flacco-led Baltimore Ravens. And folks, keep an eye on the Ravens.
Baltimore Ravens
Projected win total: 10
My prediction: Over
What’s new: Quarterback Joe Flacco’s leash was loosened last season, but the problem was his receiving corps was still on the mediocre side. That has changed considerably with the addition of WR Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth. Add veterans Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton and Flacco has the kind of depth at the position most quarterbacks yearn for at this level.
The key is Boldin staying healthy and Stallworth performing at his highest level. Making things even more interesting in the passing game is the addition of two tight ends in the draft – Ed Dickson and Dennis Pita.
Veteran tight end Todd Heap has been hampered by injuries in recent years. Dickson was one of top receiving tight ends in the draft and Pita showed great hands while catching balls at Brigham Young.
What’s the same: Ravens fans are still whacko for Flacco.
“He’s got a strong arm and will show everyone how big it is with the receivers he has now,” said his player agent Joe Linta. “You don’t sign those kind of receivers to just run downfield.”
The bolstered passing game, coupled with the solid numbers running backs Ray Rice and Willis McGahee are expected to put up, and you have the makings of an offensive juggernaut.
The defensive line needs help, but even at age 35, linebacker Ray Lewis plays at a higher level than some guys in their 20s.
Key stat to remember: Rice and McGahee combined for 1,883 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2009.
Cincinnati Bengals
Projected win total: 11
My prediction: Push
What’s new: The Bengals gave receiver Chad Ochocinco some relief by signing Antonio Bryant who should take some of the defensive pressure of No. 85.
Drafting talented receiver Jordan Shipley, if he lives up to potential, gives the Bengals depth at the position. The addition of tight end Jermaine Greshman and defensive end Carlos Dunlap will help too.
What’s the same: The defense was the strength last season and it returns nearly intact in 2010. The Bengals have a solid defensive secondary led by two of the best corner tandems in the league - Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph.
Quarterback Carson Palmer returns. Running back Cedric Benson had a breakout season in 2009. His power runs should provide a great complement to the passing game if he stays healthy. The defense has a solid pass rusher in Antwan Odom and linemen Domato Peko and Robert Geathers are solid.
Key stat to remember: NFL Comeback Player of the Year, Benson, rushed for 1,251 yards in 2009.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected win total: 8
My prediction: Push
What’s new: Running back Willie Parker was not re-signed and leading receiver Santonio Holmes was traded to the Jets. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be suspended for the start of the season, handing the quarterback reigns to untested Dennis Dixon. The Steelers added receivers Arnaz Battle and Antwaan Randle El.
The Steelers drafted receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who could make an impact, but running back Jonathan Dwyer is the key addition. The Steelers struggled inside the red zone and Dwyer is the kind of short-yardage, power-running back the Steelers need.
What’s the same: Running back Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore will get the bulk of the carries and the aging Hines Ward will provide leadership at receiver. Heath Miller has developed into a solid tight end.
The Steelers placed the franchise tag on placekicker Jeff Reed. The oft-injured strong safety Troy Polamalu is the one player who seems to determine whether this team wins or loses. When the safety plays, the Steelers play at another level. Even the offense seems to be motivated by his presence.
Key stat to remember: Drafted running back Jonathan Dwyer averaged 5.9 yards a carry and rushed for 26 touchdowns the last two years for Georgia Tech.
Cleveland Browns
Projected win total: 3
My prediction: Push
What’s new: The Browns traded away quarterback Brady Quinn to Denver and Derek Anderson was released. They signed Jake Delhomme to be the starter and former Seattle backup Seneca Wallace to be the backup.
The wild card here is drafted Texas QB Colt McCoy. He could be the starter by mid-season or earlier if Delhomme struggles.
They helped themselves at tight end by adding former New England TE Ben Watson. Depth was added at linebacker with the addition of former Miami LB Matt Roth.
The Browns improved – slightly - the worse receiving group in the league by drafting receiver Carlton Mitchell. He’s a guy with size and speed.
What’s the same: The return game is actually the team’s strength with return specialist Joshua Cribbs recently re-signed. He will also start at receiver. Other receivers Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiske highlight the offensive secondary. Workhorse Jerome Harrison leads a host of returning running backs.
Key stat to remember: The Browns ranked last in the league in passing last season with 129.8 yards a game.
AFC North preview
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Once an AFC division powerhouse when operating under the ‘Central’ brand, the AFC North has pretty much settled into a two-team loop with Baltimore and Pittsburgh leading the charge.
Together, playing under the AFC North umbrella, the Ravens and Steelers combined to go 163-111-2 this past decade with only four losing seasons between the dynamic duo. On the flip side, Cincinnati and Cleveland paired to post a 105-153-1 ledger over the same span, with just four wining seasons combined.
While a changing of the guard does not appear imminent, the Bengals served notice last season that they are about ready to shed their losing ways. Was 2009 for real or just a brilliant disguise? Stay tuned.
A word to the wise: teams from this division could not handle the weight of double-digit favoritism, combining to go 10-20 ATS this past decade as double-digit favorites when facing an opponent with at least one win on the season. Caveat emptor.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
BALTIMORE
TEAM THEME: THOSE WERE THE DAYS
One of the best lines uttered by NFL ESPN analyst Jon Gruden last season was when he said, “If the Baltimore Ravens wore their throwback uniforms they would be the Cleveland Browns.” The fact of the matter is the Black Birds are a long way removed from being the Browns these days. A tough-as-nails defensive presence is back. In addition, the offense opened up in 2009, making the Ravens a difficult game on every team’s itinerary. Five of the seven regular season losses were by a field goal or less and had they not been so sloppy in the late stages of many of those games, they could have matched the 13-win campaign orchestrated in John Harbaugh’s rookie season in 2008. Another strong draft by GM Ozzie Newsome will go a long way in sustaining Baltimore’s dominance on defense. Art Modell no longer has his stamp on this franchise. It’s a good thing Newsome does.
PLAY ON: as dog at Cincinnati (9/19)
CINCINNATI
TEAM THEME: CATS AND DOGS
Snapping an inglorious skein of one winning season in 18 years, the Bengals returned to the playoffs for only the second time since 1990 last year. Making it even harder to fathom is the fact Cincinnati failed to cover the spread all eight games in which they were favored, losing four times straight-up. The Striped Cats’ multiple personalities went full circle, though, when they managed no less than six straight-up underdog wins, making them hands-down the Yin and Yang award winners in 2009. A dicey schedule (4th toughest in the league) this year could prove to be a challenge. A positive sign that the Bengals have rounded the corner: Entering 2008, they were 1-27 SU and 6-20 ATS on the road against .700 or greater opposition. They went 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS against the same last year. Still, head coach Marvin Lewis remains cautious. "We didn't stand pat this off-season. We don't get nothing for last year."
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Pittsburgh (11/8) – *KEY if Steelers off loss
CLEVELAND
TEAM THEME: REVOLVING DOOR
Check out this resume: Derek Anderson, Tim Couch, Trent Dilfer, Ken Dorsey, Charlie Frye, Jeff Garcia. Bruce Gradkowski, Kelly Holcomb, Luke McCown, Doug Pedersen, Brady Quinn, Kevin Thompson and Spergon Wynn. This baker’s dozen represents all the quarterbacks that have appeared under center for Cleveland this past decade. Therein explains its 67-104 record. And that’s why Mike Holmgren has taken over control of the team. His first move was his biggest when he opted to keep Eric Mangini on the sidelines. Anderson and Quinn are gone with Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace battling for the starting berth. Rest assured, when it’s all said and done, Colt McCoy will be calling signals and Holmgren will get this mess turned around. A solid draft and crafty free agent signings have kick-started a new era. Once the QB breeze has subsided, Browns Stadium will again become the Dawg Pound we’ve learned to love. Chew on that for a while.
PLAY AGAINST: at Buffalo (12/12)
PITTSBURGH
TEAM THEME: DRINK LIKE A CHAMPION What’s with the water in Pittsburgh these days? Three years ago two players get arrested for running juvenile prostitution and home invasion robbery. Two years ago two more players are jailed on assault charges. Former Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes was arrested on trespassing and drug possession charges before finally being traded and then suspended for four games for substance abuse by the NFL. And then there’s the other Super Bowl MVP, Ben Roethlisberger. After a second charge in as many years of sexual assault, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell informed Big Ben that he’d be out of action the first six weeks this season. There’s no truth to the rumor that Big Ben appeared relieved when he said, "I'm pretty sure Commish was talking about me playing football." Until the suspension, the Steelers were prepared to start the season with 21 of their 22 starters back. Remember this: Pittsburgh lost six games SU as a favorite in 2009, the most of any team in the league.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. New England (11/14)
AFC North Preview
By: Sean Higgs
Baltimore Ravens - I am calling for a step back from the Ravens 13 win season last year to a more modest 11-5 affair this year. Joe Flacco is entering year 3 and off a season where he tossed for 3600 hundred yards. He should get to 4,000 yards this year as the offense is that much better with the arrival of WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth. OC Cam Cameron is turning RB Ray Rice into LT light. The defense is trying to get younger and it shows in a leaky secondary. The defense still ranked number 3 last year. A trendy Super Bowl pick for some, they face the Bengals new WR tandem in week 2.
Cincinnati Bengals - I am calling for a 10 win season out of the Bengals. The TO show arrives opposite of Ochocinco. Where will the huddle mic be located. QB Carson Palmer has 2 aging, but respect wide outs and a RB off a 1,000 yard season. Is Palmer ready to take a step into stardom. He looked flat at times last year. It will be an interesting year to say the least.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Can’t see the Steelers approaching 9 wins again. This team, even with the best LBs corp in the league will be a 7-9 team. Roethlisberger will be out at least 4 games. Those are against Atlanta, at Tennessee, at the Bucs and Baltimore. That will be a 1-3 start with Leftwich or Dixon leading this offense. This is not a vintage Steelers team and it will show with a losing season.
Cleveland Browns - The Browns showed no quit last year winning their last 4 games after a 7 game slide that left them 1-11. New GM Mike Holmgren had to see the fight from HC Mangini’s troops and figured he had to give the guy another year. Make no mistake, this coaching seat is red-hot. New signal caller Jake Delhomme looks to find the fountain of youth after an awful year in Carolina. This is still a tough division even with a down Pittsburgh team. A repeat of 6 wins will be a good sign for this team.
AFC North Preview
By Scott Rickenbach
Baltimore - Long known for defense, the Ravens offense is now making big strides as well. Especially their aerial attack improved last season and now, with the addition of Anquan Boldin, even bigger things can be expected in 2010. Look for Boldin to combine with Mason to form a solid 1-2 punch at the wideout spots. On defense, the Ravens did lose some key players with the departure of Justin Bannan and Dwan Edwards. However, the bigger concern is the secondary as it regressed last season and that is an area that is again a potential weak spot. Keep that in mind in terms of match-ups for the Ravens this season. Still, Baltimore's offense continues to improve and can carry them again this season.
Cincinnati - Amazingly the Bengals won all their games against divisional opponents last season. We say amazingly because they were so offensively challenged. Losing QB Palmer and WR Henry really hurt the offense. But the defense stepped up and was rock solid and that was even with their 2009 first round draft pick Andre Smith missing most of the season. We really like the draft the Bengals had in 2010 in terms of the TE Jermaine Gresham and then also the defensive depth that Cincinnati added through the draft. However, in addition to again playing solid defense, the Bengals must improve offensively and we just don't see that happening with this team. In other words, the Ravens will be tough to catch.
Cleveland - Major roster overhaul heading into this season. What else is new in Cleveland? This franchise just can't right the ship and it's another rebuilding year for the Browns. Yes they closed '09 with four straight wins but a couple of those were late season meaningless games. Also, how much momentum is left when the roster has undergone major turnover? The Browns ranked among the NFL's worst on both defense and offense last season and, with all the offseason changes, we don't expect to see much improvement until the latter part of this season. Tough team to back right now. Will take time for the Browns to improve.
Pittsburgh - It will be a rough start to the season for the Steelers most likely. The Roethlisberger situation is hurting Pittsburgh as is the loss of WR Santonio Holmes. Will they be able to overcome this? That is the key question. The offense improved dramatically last season but the defense, particularly against the pass, regressed in '09. Make no mistake about it, the Steelers still have a solid defense but if Randle El, and Battle can't step up big to replace Holmes, this could be a mediocre season for Pittsburgh. The Steelers need to run the ball better and they have not proven they can do that.