2008 Baltimore Ravens Predictions
by Matt Foust
2007 Record: 5-11 (4-4 H, 1-7 A)
2007 Against the Spread: 3-13 (3-5 H, 0-8 A); 9-6-1 vs. Total (5-3 H, 4-3-1 A)
2007 Rankings: 22nd Offense (16th Rush, 23 Pass); 6th Defense (2nd Rush, 20th Pass)
2008 Odds: 75-1 Super Bowl odds, 40-1 AFC Championship odds, 8-1 AFC North odds, 6 wins (O/U)
Last season the Baltimore Ravens were one of the most disappointing teams in professional football. They were so disappointing, in fact, that the Ravens brass sent long time head coach Brian Billick to the unemployment line. This season will definitely produce some changes for the team, but they are still likely to have their fortunes rest on the play of their defense, at least in the near future. It would seem that the offense, while having some pieces in place, is probably a year or two off from being a consistent threat. Amazingly, Billick - who was regarded as an offensive genius-type when hired - never got this bunch to produce. The new coach, John Harbaugh, will look to reverse that trend while keeping the defense's hard-nosed reputation intact.
The Baltimore offense had more than its share of problems last season, and the season before that, and the season before that…you get the point. The quarterback play in 2007 was basically dreadful. Steve McNair, when he did see action, looked like a shell of his former self and Kyle Boller just looked like himself. Neither of those things was good and the offensive production suffered as a result. But for some reason it never seemed like Billick gave Boller a legitimate shot--he always seemed on the verge of yanking him. Harbaugh is likely to give Boller the reins while first round draft choice Joe Flacco waits in the wings. Who knows what the results will be, but Boller will have some good targets in Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, and Todd Heap. If the line can protect him - and that's a big if - than he's got zero excuses.
The Ravens did have a fairly productive ground game last season. Obviously, the boys upfront were better run blockers than pass blockers. That will probably be the case this year too. Willis McGahee will carry the majority of the load again, and I'm sure that he would like to find himself in the end zone a little more often in 2008. The rushing attack should still be adequate enough to take some heat off Boller. Also, the addition of Rutgers star Ray Rice gives the team a solid change of pace backup option.
When people think of the Ravens, they think about defense. Last year the defense upheld its status as a hard-hitting bunch, but there were some serious cracks in the armor. That fact might have gone unnoticed by many because the unit was ranked sixth in yards allowed per game, but they were ranked 22nd in the most important defensive stat - points allowed (24 per game). They also did not generate that much of a pass rush, especially considering their reputation. They finished the year with a modest 32 sacks, which partially explains why their pass defense ranked 20th in the league.
Even with some concerning numbers, the defensive core is extremely sound and the will pose a challenge for any offense they face.
2008 Baltimore Ravens predictions: The Ravens have the personnel to be reasonably competitive, but their offense just doesn't stack up to the rest of the division. One of the bigger challenges for Harbaugh in the coming years will be to avoid his offense peaking right about the time the defense goes into a decline. That won't be his problem this year, though. Here's looking at last place, coach.
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2008 Cincinnati Bengals Predictions
by Matt Foust
2007 Record: 7-9 (5-3 H, 2-6 A)
2007 Against the Spread: 7-9 (4-4 H, 3-5 A); 7-9 vs. Total (3-5 H, 4-4 A)
2007 Rankings: 10th Offense (24th Rush, 7th Pass); 27th Defense (21st Rush, 26th Pass)
2008 Odds: 60-1 Super Bowl odds, 25-1 AFC Championship odds, 9-2 AFC North odds, 7 wins (O/U)
The Bengals were probably torn between the rewind and fast forward buttons at the end of last season. Part of the organization's psyche probably wanted a second chance at a dismal season and another part probably wanted to get away from it as fast as possible. Marvin Lewis and company are about to get another go, but it remains to be seen if this season will be absent of the issues that plagued the team in 2007. This offseason has certainly been wrought with tension as star receiver Chad Johnson has continued to publicly bicker with management. The Bengals current odds would indicate that the team still has some things to address if they are to challenge for the AFC North crown.
Despite all the locker room issues and player legal troubles, the Cincinnati offense continued to excel last year. Carson Palmer's numbers were not as gaudy as in some previous seasons but he still finished with an 86.7 passer rating and 26 touchdown passes. He's entering what should be the prime of his career and it's difficult to imagine him falling off any in the next few years. It appears that Palmer will still be tossing the pigskin to Johnson, after all, this year too. For all the animosity, perceived or otherwise, between Johnson and the franchise, he is still a top-tier receiver that makes his team better on the field. Johnson's cohort, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, has turned into one of the leagues best pass catchers as well. Look for the Bengals to have the scintillating aerial attack in 2008 that they have displayed for a few seasons now.
The only concerning part for Cincinnati offensively was the decline of their running game last year. Rudi Johnson, who has been a productive back for the team in the past, missed a lot of time and when he did play he was unimpressive, averaging a meager 2.9 yards per carry. Backup Kenny Watson did perform well in place of Johnson and the team will likely feature more of a platoon system this year between Rudi Johnson, Watson, and Chris Perry.
Marvin Lewis is still trying to turn this team into a defensive powerhouse like the one he coached in Baltimore. It would appear he's still quite a ways from seeing a transformation. There's some talent on the defensive unit, but they have never put it all together. The team saw former first round draft pick Justin Smith sign with the 49ers in the offseason and linebacker Landon Johnson made his way to Carolina. They signed Antwan Odom to replace Smith but they still have some questions up front. The club is still fairly solid at linebacker even with Johnson's departure. Former standout Odell Thurman has also been reinstated by the league. If he can keep things together, he could be a real positive for the Bengals. The secondary is possibly the best part of the Bengals defense, and, other than veterans Deltha O'Neal and Dexter Jackson, it's really young.
2008 Cincinnati Bengals Predictions: Cincinnati will post some good offensive numbers and there will be weeks where they just outscore other teams. However, they do not appear to be at the same level as the Steelers or the Browns. Third place looks like a good spot for them.
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2008 Cleveland Browns Predictions
by Matt Foust
2007 Record: 10-6 (7-1 H, 3-5 A)
2007 Against the Spread: 12-4 (7-1 H, 5-3 A); 8-6-2 vs. Total (4-3-1 H, 4-3-1 A)
2007 Rankings: 8th Offense (10th Rush, 12th Pass); 30th Defense (27th Rush, 24th Pass)
2008 Odds: 25-1 Super Bowl odds, 14-1 AFC Championship odds, 8-5 AFC North odds, 8 wins (O/U)
Browns Head Coach Romeo Crennel probably saved his job last season. Ironically for the former Patriots defensive coordinator, it was his offense that bailed him out. There was a certain amount of optimism in Cleveland after last year's draft, when the team picked up Wisconsin Tackle Joe Thomas and Notre Dame Quarterback Brady Quinn. However, I don't think anybody thought that they would put up the numbers they did with a then-unknown Derek Anderson leading the charge. As you can see from the odds listed above there is even more confidence this year, but for the Browns to really be a factor Crennel will have to fix last year's defensive problems.
Cleveland heads into this season expecting the offense to pick up where it left off in 2007. Considering their personnel, those expectations are more than reasonable. Anderson will again be under center after re-signing in the offseason, and he has no shortage of playmakers to toss the ball to. Last year Braylon Edwards emerged as the big threat he was believed to be coming out of college, hauling in 80 receptions and 16 touchdowns. At the other receiver position is the recently signed speedster Donte Stallworth. These two should form one of the best receiver tandems in the league, and when you toss in tight end Kellen Winslow you have a trio that causes secondary pants wetting.
Leading the Browns ground game will be Jamal Lewis. The former Baltimore All-Pro proved last year that he still has some life in those huge legs by gaining over 1,300 yards and scoring nine touchdowns. The Cleveland offensive line proved adept at both pass blocking (19 sacks allowed) and run blocking last year and they will return all of last year's starters. Don't expect this team to be overwhelmed by too many defensive units.
As previously mentioned, the Browns defense induced fear in exactly zero offenses. But, to their credit, they did hold teams to an average of 14.67 points per game over the final six weeks of the season. That development, along with some offseason maneuvers, has the team hopeful that they can turn things around in 2008. General Manager Phil Savage traded for Packers stalwart Corey Williams (DT) and signed Lion malcontent Shaun Rogers (DT) earlier this year. Both players can be dominant and should give the Browns a better chance at the point of attack. Unfortunately, the linebackers and secondary are somewhat suspect and the Browns didn't have enough draft picks to adequately address either.
2008 Cleveland Browns Predictions: The Browns have all the pieces in place to compete with the Steelers for the division title. However, it will be their inferior defense that has them coming up just short. The Browns will again take second place in the AFC North.
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2008 Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions
by Matt Foust
2007 Record: 10-6 (7-1 H, 3-5 A)
2007 Against the Spread: 8-8 (5-3 H, 3-5 A); 8-8 vs. Total (4-4 H, 4-4 A)
2007 Rankings: 17th Offense (3rd Rush, 22nd Pass); 1st Defense (3rd Rush, 3rd Pass)
2008 Odds: 15-1 Super Bowl odds, 8-1 AFC Championship odds, 10-11 AFC North odds
Last season Mike Tomlin had the difficult job of following an iconic head coach. He succeeded in his efforts largely because he did not mess with the solid blueprint that Bill Cowher employed for years - run the ball well and play a stifling brand of defense. Give Tomlin his due for being savvy enough and selfless enough not to tinker with the goods too much. Due to his successes last season, Tomlin will be able to operate without as much scrutiny this year. That, however, will change if Pittsburgh suffers another home playoff loss come January.
Ben Roethlisberger made a return to efficiency last year after having thrown 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in 2006. Big Ben tossed 32 touchdowns and just 11 picks last year on his way to a 104.1 passer rating. As a result the Steelers offense churned out 24.6 points per game for a ninth-place ranking. This year the offense should be just as capable if not more so. The only loss the team suffered was guard Alan Faneca, and they added some good talent via the draft and free agency. The club picked up a starter in former Panther center Justin Hartwig and quality depth at running back in Mewelde Moore. They also drafted Illinois sensation Rashard Mendenhall to back up Willie Parker and they added another deep threat by snagging Texas receiver Limas Sweed in the second round.
The offensive line, while performing at an exceptional level in the running game last year, could stand to shore up their pass blocking. They allowed 47 sacks last year and they will need to cut that number back if they expect to connect on more deep routes.
After a slight fall off in 2006, the Steelers defense returned to form last season. They ranked No. 1 in yardage allowed and No. 2 in points per game allowed at 16.8. The unit loses a starting linebacker for the second year in a row as Clark Haggans signed with the Cardinals in the offseason. That said, second year player LaMarr Woodley should be more than ready to fill in for Haggans.
Defensive coordinator Dick LaBeau will again be heading things up this year, and the production numbers should be close to the same. There is some age on the defensive line and some questions about the secondary, but the overall talent level is outstanding. The biggest question is whether or not safety Troy Polamalu can return to form after a sub-par, injury plagued 2007 season. The Steelers were still the number one ranked defense even with his drop off last year; if he is healthy they will be even more dominant in 2008.
2008 Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions: I look for the Steelers to retain their AFC North title this year. While they may feel some heat from the Browns, Cleveland's defense is still not good enough to get them past Pittsburgh.
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