AFC Schedule Outlook

AFC South 2012 Schedule Outlook
By: Joe Nelson
Playbook.com

While next week's NFL Draft will get far more attention, this week's release of the NFL schedules will be more important to the success or failure of any NFL team. The schedules are not created equally and with just 16 games there can be great disparities between the various paths to the playoffs. Here is a look at the AFC South and the upcoming schedule for each team.

Houston Texans: The Texans finally broke through with a playoff berth last season, winning the AFC South at 10-6. Houston was 10-3 but lost the final three games of the regular season before getting a playoff win over Cincinnati and giving Baltimore a very tough game in the divisional round. The Texans played late in the year with rookie 3rd string QB T.J. Yates so this is a team that can again be a serious contender with better health in what looks like one of the weaker divisions in the NFL.

The South teams will play the AFC East teams and the NFC North teams which is a fairly challenging group of teams. 10-6 could well win the division again this season and Houston should be able to get off to a strong start to the season. The first five games are against teams that finished 9-7 or worse last year and although three of those five games will be on the road they will catch several teams that are in transition or have questionable QB situations. The big proving ground games for Houston will be in October facing the Jets on the road and then hosting big games with Green Bay and Baltimore before a week 8 bye.

The second half of the schedule is difficult with four road games in five weeks starting in mid-November and road games at Chicago, at Detroit and at New England in what will be big late season tests. If there is a close race for a playoff spot the Texans do finish the season playing the Colts and Vikings at home and then going to Indianapolis for a very light final three games. The Colts and Vikings could be much better teams late in the year than at the beginning of the year however. Houston’s had to play a fairly tough schedule last year and they will again have a difficult draw but all things considered another strong year can be the result if Houston can handle playing as the favorites for a change.

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts finished with a 2-14 record last season and the 0-16 watch was in full effect, starting 0-13. Indianapolis was in the news a lot in the off season with big changes in the front office, on the sidelines, and under center. Presumably rookie Andrew Luck will be the starter for the Colts and we have seen several rookie quarterbacks have early success in recent years even if that may not be the norm. The expectations will be low for the Colts but this team has a schedule that can allow for some early season success.

The Colts play the Vikings, Jaguars, and Browns at home in the first half of the season and those games could be winnable contests even for a team in transition. The Colts will also have home games with Miami and Buffalo as they will only face two 2011 playoff teams at home all season. The fourth place schedule means that the Colts will be the only team in the division that plays the Browns and Chiefs which should be more favorable match-ups and an improved record is very possible for this team solely based on the schedule, coming from a franchise that has almost exclusively played first place schedules in recent years.

The Colts will have a hard time rising to a playoff caliber level or even flirting with .500 as the AFC East and NFC North should feature six quality teams but the Colts have the ability to win games in this division. Houston may not be as strong as last season with some key personnel losses and Tennessee and Jacksonville both have some question marks heading into the season. Don’t be surprised if the Colts exceed expectations and they could top last year’s win total in the first half of the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The 2011 season started very awkwardly for the Jaguars. It was a season where head coach Jack Del Rio had very little chance to succeed and the decision to cut presumed starting QB David Garrard right before the season started proved unpopular and unsuccessful. Jacksonville had a respectable defense last year and started 1-0 but then lost five straight games and Del Rio was eventually removed midseason. Matching last season’s 5-11 mark won’t be easy considering the coaching transition and some big question marks at QB as rookie Blaine Gabbert did not impress last season.

The schedule presents some opportunities for Jacksonville as the first two road games of the year will be winnable games, playing at Minnesota and at Indianapolis in the first three weeks. The early season home games are difficult with Houston, Cincinnati, Chicago, and Detroit coming to Jacksonville in the first eight games. Drawing Cincinnati and Oakland as part of the third place schedule is a mixed bag, both of those teams showed flashes last season of being very good but neither is consistent. They are teams Jacksonville could beat on the right days and it will be those types of games that determine whether or not it is a respectable and promising first season for Mike Mularkey in his second stint as a head coach.

Jacksonville was 1-7 on the road last season so that is an area that needs improvement and with only two 2011 playoff teams on the road schedule there should be a great opportunity to snag a few more road wins this year. The Packers and Patriots are still on the schedule so there are some very difficult games and all things considered a year similar to 2011 is the most likely scenario. Jacksonville could have a promising start to the year but if they fail in the winnable early season games it could be a very long year.

Tennessee Titans: The Titans were quietly 9-7 last year and nearly in the playoff picture. The late season loss against then 0-13 Indianapolis could haunt the team as they played great late season ball with the exception of that game. The Titans normally might be a quality sleeper team to look at in this division but the second place schedule presents great challenges as San Diego and Pittsburgh are on the schedule. The Titans could certainly have the toughest schedule in this division so they would likely need to go 4-2 or better in the division games to realistically win the title and return to the playoffs.

The Titans have an absolutely brutal start to the season, opening with New England at home and then heading to San Diego. It doesn’t get much easier hosting the Lions in week 3 and then heading to Houston in week 4 for the first critical division game. In week 5 Tennessee plays at Minnesota and that should be an easier game but it will be a second straight road game and in week 6 they have a short week game on Thursday night against Pittsburgh. For a team with a second year coaching staff and potentially starting a young QB that could make for a very rocky opening to the year.

The middle of the season should present opportunities for the Titans so if they can weather the first few weeks without falling into too big of a hole it can be a successful competitive season. If Tennessee is in the playoff hunt they will face a challenging close to the season with the Jets and Packers in weeks 15 and 16 so there may not be much of a margin for error in the middle of the schedule. The Titans also have a very late bye week in week 11 so they could face some fatigue in some of the key midseason games. The Titans only play back-to-back road games once this year and with all the South teams facing fairly tough schedules it won't take a great record to win this division so the games with Houston could make or break the year.

AFC North 2012 Schedule Outlook
By: Joe Nelson
Playbook.com

While next week's NFL Draft will get far more attention, this week's release of the NFL schedules will be more important to the success or failure of any NFL team. The schedules are not created equally and with just 16 games there can be great disparities between the various paths to the playoffs. Here is a look at the AFC North and the upcoming schedule for each team.

Baltimore Ravens: Last year the Ravens went 8-0 at home and won both meetings with rival Pittsburgh to take the AFC North crown, winning the tiebreaker with the Steelers as both teams were 12-4. Baltimore won just barely over the Texans in the playoffs and then lost narrowly against the Patriots in the AFC Championship, a game they easily could have won with a couple of late miscues. The Ravens reload for the 2012 season with high expectations but they will deal with a difficult schedule. The North teams will play the AFC West teams which will not present any great threat but they also must play all four NFC East teams.

Baltimore draws a first place schedule and will be the only North team that has to play the Patriots and the Texans, a pretty severe disadvantage given how close the division race between Pittsburgh and Baltimore often is. Baltimore will have a difficult time delivering a perfect home record again this season as all but one home foe was 8-8 or better last season and that game is a short week game against Cleveland on a Thursday night following a huge Sunday night game with New England. Baltimore will play in primetime in three of the first four weeks of the season and the early season schedule is challenging.

Baltimore will play just three teams (four games) that finished with a losing record in 2011 as there won't be many easy weeks in the schedule. A particularly daunting stretch comes in mid-November as the Ravens play at Pittsburgh then face cross country travel to play at San Diego the following week, before the quick return visit of the Steelers at home. Baltimore should still be considered a contender in the AFC but matching the 12-4 record of last season is unlikely. The AFC North benefited from playing the AFC South and NFC West teams last year and every team in this division could see a decline in record from last season.

Cincinnati Bengals: At the start of the 2011 season the Bengals were almost universally projected to be the worst team in the NFL. Those looking at the schedule saw a different picture however as Cincinnati was dealt one of the easiest slates in the league and the early season schedule was very light, allowing a team with a rookie QB to be able to survive and grow quickly. The Bengals ended up 9-7 and made into the playoffs, losing to Houston in the Wild Card round and the expectations will certainly be elevated this year.

While there is a lot to like with the young talent on the team, Cincinnati did not beat a single playoff team last season and they went 0-4 against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. This year the out of division schedule will be much more difficult and a step back season can be expected even if the Bengals look like a better and more complete team than a year ago. The one benefit the Bengals have is that they are a rare playoff team that returns to a third place schedule and facing Miami and Jacksonville might actually be more favorable than facing Buffalo and Indianapolis this season.

Cincinnati will open the season with three of the first four games on the road including an opening game at Baltimore. Overall the early season schedule is again favorable as the Ravens are the lone returning playoff team that Cincinnati will face in the first six games. The second half schedule will be a challenge however as there are difficult home games with the Broncos, Giants, Raiders, Cowboys, and Ravens being the opponents for the final five home contests. The final three road games are in San Diego, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh so a second half collapse is a real possibility for this team as it will be a much tougher slate than last year.

Cleveland Browns: The Browns haven't played their cards just yet but this is a team that could be starting over with another new QB. Cleveland went 4-12 last season including 0-6 in the division and with three AFC playoff teams from 2011 returning in the division it will be tough to pick up ground. Cleveland was 1-7 on the road last season and seven of the eight road games this year will be against teams that had a .500 or better record last season. The home schedule is slightly more favorable but they face several teams that underachieved last year and should be tougher in 2012 such as Philadelphia, Buffalo, San Diego, and Kansas City.

The Browns will also face two sets of brutal back-to-back road games, getting Baltimore and the Giants back-to-back in weeks 4 and 5 and then closing the year with road games at Denver and at Pittsburgh. Cleveland plays the Colts in the first half of the season which should be preferable given that Indianapolis is in transition but it will be a road game and the Browns do not figure to be favored in very many games, perhaps hosting Buffalo in week 3, at Indianapolis in week 6, or possibly hosting Kansas City or Washington late in the year.

Cleveland was statistically among the worst teams in the NFL on both sides of the ball last year so there are far bigger issues than the schedule at the forefront for the Browns. Cleveland went 4-12 last year against a pretty favorable schedule and this year’s slate will be more difficult. The Browns did start 3-3 last season before things got ugly late in the year and there were several close losses but with a tough early season schedule it may not be a good idea to put rookies in key spots.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The 2011 season for the Steelers will be remembered for the playoff loss to Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos more than anything else but this was a 12-4 team despite battling injuries most of the season. All four losses came against division winning teams last year and while this year’s schedule is tougher than last year’s slate there is a big advantage in comparisons with Baltimore as the Steelers get the Titans and Jets instead of the Texans and Patriots.

Pittsburgh figures to be a solid favorite in every home game this season as the only two home games against teams that made the playoffs last season are the division games with Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Steelers open the season in primetime at Denver and while the Broncos could be a tough team with Peyton Manning, playing them in week 1 should be a favorable situation given the massive transformation of the Denver offense. Pittsburgh has an early week 4 bye week which might make the stretch run a challenge, particularly for a veteran team that has had plenty of injury issues in recent years however.

The late season schedule is fairly favorable as three of the final four games will be at home. The big stretch of the season will be in the second half playing Baltimore twice in three weeks and also playing at the Super Bowl champion Giants in week 9. The Steelers also play two sets of back-to-back road games this season which could present some challenges. Overall Pittsburgh has to feel good about this draw. The AFC North had fairly light schedules last year but the Steelers had the toughest of those draws and this year that won’t be the case, which could help Pittsburgh to get back on top of this division after falling just short last year.

AFC East 2012 Schedule Outlook
By: Joe Nelson
Playbook.com

While next week's NFL Draft will get far more attention, this week's release of the NFL schedules will be more important to the success or failure of any NFL team. The schedules are not created equally and with just 16 games there can be great disparities between the various paths to the playoffs. Here is a look at the AFC East and the upcoming schedule for each team.

Buffalo Bills: Buffalo started the 2011 season 3-0, and eventually was still in good position to make the playoffs sitting at 5-2 through week 8. Buffalo then lost seven in a row before splitting the final two games of the season to finish 6-10. Buffalo was 4-12 in 2010 so it was technically an improved year and the Bills lost the tiebreaker with the Dolphins, also at 6-10, and thus will benefit with a fourth place schedule in 2012. That is a big advantage and despite being in a tough division Buffalo is a team that can take another step forward.

The AFC East plays the NFC West teams and the AFC South teams, a group of teams that featured a combined 56-72 record last season. With the fourth place schedule the Bills also face Cleveland and Kansas City, certainly more desirable options than some of the other teams in those divisions, particularly in the case of the AFC North draw. San Francisco was the best team by far from the NFC West and Houston was by far the best team in the AFC South last year and the Bills will have to play both of those teams on the road in 2012. The home slate for the Bills is pretty favorable however with only one non-division game against a team that had a winning 2011 record, and that is a hardly fearsome 9-7 Tennessee squad.

Buffalo does only play seven home games due to playing Seattle in Toronto in December but that will be a favorable environment for the Bills and they will still get to face the west coast Seahawks off long travel and on Eastern Time. Buffalo may not have the hot start of last season but there is an opportunity for a favorable finish. They face only two road games in the final seven games and none of those seven games is against a team that had a winning record last year. The Bills made some upgrades in the off-season, notably the big signing of Mario Williams and Buffalo drafts in the #10 spot. The schedule is another reason for optimism as Buffalo has a favorable draw in 2012.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have made some big changes this off season starting with new head coach Joe Philbin. Much is unsettled however especially at QB and the #8 pick in next week’s draft will certainly get a lot of attention. Miami opened the 2011 season 0-7 but most of those losses came in very close games against quality teams. Six of the first seven opponents for the Dolphins finished 8-8 or better and as the schedule softened the Dolphins looked like a much better team, closing the year with wins in seven of the last ten games. Miami’s 2012 schedule won’t be quite as tough out of the gate but it will still be a challenging early season slate for a team in transition.

Like Buffalo Miami will play at Houston and at San Francisco so they have a less favorable draw among the NFC West and AFC South cards. The Dolphins open the season at Houston in what will be a challenging game and they will face the AFC third place match-ups with Oakland and Cincinnati in the first five weeks. For a team in transition the second half schedule will feature more home games with four of the final six games at home but this is also a franchise that has been a terrible performer in Miami the last decade. Both meetings with New England are in the last five weeks of the season and the Dolphins also have a late season date in San Francisco and the travel required on this schedule is significant.

Given that the bulk of the teams in the AFC South and NFC West were not very good last season and have some serious question marks this season, Miami’s schedule leaves opportunities for an improved record. There are not many favorable road games however so the Dolphins will need to be able to take care of business at home to have a more respectable season. Given the transition year and a tough early season slate it could be another slow start for Miami but this team could start to make a run in November, much like last season.

New England Patriots: After the 16-0 2007 season and the tough loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl, New England responded by going 11-5 in 2008. It was a forgettable season however as Tom Brady was lost due to injury in week one and even at 11-5 the Patriots missed the playoffs. Given the hype of last year’s Super Bowl with the many storylines there could be another letdown season for New England although the schedule will not be overly difficult. New England is the only team in the East that has to play division champions Baltimore and Denver this season and those will certainly be big games on the schedule, both taking place early in the year.

The Patriots will only play seven road games which is certainly a big advantage over the rest of the league. The Patriots will play the Rams in London in late October and the Patriots have historically been outstanding at home in the Bill Belichick era. New England will only play one home game all season against a team that had a winning record last season, facing San Francisco in week 15 in a Sunday Night game, so another 7-1 home record is very possible. The early season road schedule is challenging however. New England opens the season at Tennessee and then plays at Baltimore in week 3. New England lost at Buffalo early last season and they will play at Buffalo in week 4 in what could be a challenging spot with three of the first four games on the road and a possible letdown spot given the magnitude of the Sunday Night game with the Ravens.

There will also be long travel in October with a game in Seattle and then the London game. The Patriots will play on Thanksgiving night at the Jets and then also have prime time games in two of the following three weeks so they will be in the spotlight late in the year. Overall the schedule for New England is pretty favorable and it would be a surprise if New England did not post another strong double-digit win season barring major injuries or incidents.

New York Jets: As if the Jets were not in the spotlight enough the past few years, the addition of Tim Tebow, even if he doesn't play much, will add to the attention placed on the Big Apple's 'other' team. New York fell to 8-8 last season, losing the final three games of the season to miss the playoffs. Despite the down year the Jets still face a second place schedule and this year that will mean a very difficult draw. The Jets already will play the entire AFC South but unlike the rest of the East teams the Jets have to play San Diego and Pittsburgh, two talented teams that may have underachieved last season. The Jets get San Diego at home so they at least avoid long travel but playing at Pittsburgh early in the year will be a big challenge.

The Jets play Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Houston in the first five weeks of the season so they will be going against elite defensive teams early in the year which could be problematic for an offense that has often had identity problems and is also just a few bad games away from a major QB controversy circus. If the Jets survive the first few weeks of the season without too many losses or without creating too much chaos the second half schedule is pretty manageable.

After a week 9 bye week the Jets have road games at Seattle and at St. Louis in back-to-back weeks and while the travel will be significant, neither game is overly threatening. The big Thanksgiving game with the Patriots will follow and getting that short week game at home is a plus. The schedule lines up to allow the Jets a favorable finish to the season with the final five games of the season and eight of the final nine games against teams that failed to make the playoffs last year. The Jets figure to have a tougher schedule than their division counterparts and given that New York was 2-6 on the road last season it could be another difficult year given the high expectations.