AFC South preview: Division no longer the Colts to lose
By LARRY JOSEPHSON
The door may be opening just a crack in the AFC South.
Until last year the Colts had pretty much had their way for the previous six seasons. Tennessee’s 10-0 start and 13-3 record relegated Indianapolis to wild-card status and both teams’ abrupt first-round playoff exits might have provided a harbinger of things to come in 2009.
The Colts and Titans combined for 25 victories last season, the most prolific 1-2 punch in any division if the NFL. Similar success for Indy and Tennessee are extremely unlikely this season.
Houston (8-8) has started knocking louder on the door and appears to have the talent to make a run at a wild card spot. Jacksonville is dumping veterans and starting over.
Tennessee Titans
Projected win total: 9 (beted.com)
Prediction: Under (+110)
From 13 wins last season to a projected nine is a severe drop, even if the +110 on the under cushions the fall. But nothing seems to have gone right for this team since it clinched the best-overall record. A shutout loss to Indianapolis in Week 17 was followed two weeks later by a playoff-elimination loss to Baltimore, which was followed by the loss of defensive beast Albert Haynesworth, which was followed a few months later by the shocking death of former quarterback Steve McNair.
Jeff Fisher needs to reverse the negative momentum, and it won’t be easy. The defense dominated so many games last year that quarterback Kerry Collins had to just not lose games, and the Titans ran off 10 straight wins to start the season. Tennessee will again look to pound the ball in its risk-averse offense, with Chris Johnson getting 60 to 65 percent of the carries. LenDale White, who ate himself out of the starting job last season, supposedly is in shape and motivated this season.
The defense which held teams to less than 15 points a game last season has some age issues. Kyle Vanden Bosch and Jevon Kearse both are on the bad side of 30, as is LB Keith Bullock. Status quo play from those three at those ages would be too much to ask for.
Surprising stat: Kerry Collins threw only seven interceptions last season. In the other three years in which he was a starter (2003 with the Giants and 2004 and ’05 with Oakland), he had a combined total of 54 interceptions.
Indianapolis Colts
Projected win total: 10 (beted.com)
Prediction: 10
First off, don’t be concerned about Peyton Manning. It took him a while to recover from knee surgery, but the numbers he put up in the final nine games (16 TDs, 3 INTs) speak for themselves. Despite a new coach, Manning will be Manning. But Indy needs to do some patching.
Joseph Addai’s numbers have diminished for two seasons and the Colts are so concerned they spent a first-round pick on RB Donald Brown. The O-line spent so much time protecting Manning that it forgot how to run-block. Everything came to a head in the playoff loss to San Diego, when Manning threw for 300 yards but Indy could run the ball for only 65 (to SD’s 167) and scored only 17 points.
Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney get after the quarterback pretty well, but Indy historically hasn’t had much size in its defensive line. The Colts hope to repair that pothole with the drafting of DTs Fila Moala and Terrance Taylor. The linebackers and defensive backfield kept Indy in game after game last season, and will probably have to do it again this season. The special teams play might have been the worst in the NFL last season, and even mediocre in 2009 will be an upgrade.
Surprising stat: The Colts had a much different over/under record on grass (5-2) than on artificial turf (3-6) last season.
Houston Texans
Projected win total: 8.5 (beted.com)
Prediction: Over (+120)
Like U.S. soccer, the Texans seem to always be about the future. But that may be about to end, assuming things break right and they can step things up a notch or two defensively.
Mario Williams is the real deal at one DE spot, and run-stopping free agent signing Antonio Smith should make the D-line more than adequate. DeMeco Ryans could be the most underrated linebacker in the NFL, but the secondary has to get better. Cato June was added in the offseason, and will get rotation time if he doesn’t enough energy left to start.
Offensively, there are more than enough playmakers. Assuming Matt Schaub stays healthy (it’s been an issue), he’s easily the second-best QB in the division and may be Top 5 in the AFC. Schaub threw for 3,043 yards last season, about half of them to top-flight WR Andre Johnson. Wideout Kevin Walter gets lots of 1-on-1 coverage on the other side, and Steve Slaton (1,282 yards rushing, 377 receiving and 10 TDs) has come out of nowhere and emerged as an elite back.
The schedule sets up nicely for the Texans. Besides the same teams that all AFC South teams play, Houston has matchups with Oakland and Cincinnati.
Surprising stats: The Texans covered the spread in six of their final seven games last season. Also, in every game last season the over number was 40 or above.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected win total: 8 (beted.com)
Prediction: Under (+100)
If you’re thinking about taking this over, can you explain how a team that wins five games in 2008, then lets go some of its best players and is clearly rebuilding, gets to nine wins playing in a division that includes Indianapolis and Tennessee?
Jack Del Rio is a terrific coach and has done a great job in a tough division, but things are happening in Jacksonville, and not a lot of them are good.
Two offensive linchpins – QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew – both slipped a bit in 2008 from the previous year as they struggled behind a poor offensive line. Garrard had 15 TDs and 13 INTs, but spent a lot of time on his back (42 sacks). Jones-Drew’s average per carry dropped from 4.6 to 4.2.
Desperate for thrust up front, the Jags signed veteran Tra Thomas from the Eagles and spent two high draft picks on the O-line. They also hope incoming WR Torry Holt can stretch opposing defenses.
The defense was average last season and there haven’t been any major upgrades. The only significant development has been Del Rio’s calling out his best defender, John Henderson, for missing OTA time.
There were reports that veterans tuned out Del Rio last season, and the team has responded by dumping a couple of popular players, RB Fred Taylor and LB Mike Peterson.
On top of everything, the fan base appears demoralized and there are reports that season ticket sales are so small that home games will be blacked out.
Surprising stat: Jacksonville lost six of its last seven last season. In those losses the Jags lost by an average of 12 points, and they only once finished within seven points of their opponent.