AFC South Preview
By Marc Lawrence
Thought by many to be the toughest division in the NFL, the AFC South has fielded only two teams that have suffered a losing record the last three years.
As a result these teams are 23-10 SU and 24-9 ATS as non-division dogs of less than six points in that span, including 7-0 SU and ATS last season.
Will the South rise again in 2009? Stay tuned.
Here is my take of teams in the AFC SOUTH DIVISION for 2009.
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON
Team Theme – KNOCK, KNOCK
It's been seven years without a winning season for the Houston Texans. So, who's counting? The fans of the franchise have not panicked - not since the hiring of Gary Kubiak in 2006. That’s because Kubiak has the Texans knocking on the door with 8-8 seasons each of the last two years. Confidence comes from knowing the offense has improved each and every year under Kubiak’s command. The Cowpokes are 15-6 SU and 17-4 ATS under Kubiak in games in which they’ve managed to score 23 or more points. Heck, Houston even managed to win three games in a row (and then four) for the first time in franchise history last season. If there has been a knock on the Texan's play under Coach ‘K’, it's been their lack of success within the division. Long the doormat of the AFC South, Houston has only six wins in its last 18 division games but, then again, who's counting?
PLAY ON: as a home dog vs. Tennessee (11/23)
INDIANAPOLIS
Team Theme – ALL IN THE FAMILY
Only one team in NFL history can lay claim to the fact they have won a dozen or more games six years in a row. In addition, only one team in the league has made an appearance in the playoffs each of the last seven years. We’re speaking, of course, about Indianapolis. For a team that enjoyed all that success, its off-season was filled with transition. Gone is future Hall of Fame head coach Tony Dungy, his offensive and defensive coordinators, and the offensive line coach. To compensate for the losses, the team promoted from within the organization, naming Dungy's assistant, Jim Caldwell the new boss, while assigning job duties to other former assistants. If the Colts are going to extend the numbers noted above they will need to shore up the weakest rushing offense in the league. It’s a good thing this is still Peyton’s place.
PLAY ON: vs. Denver (12/13)
JACKSONVILLE
Team Theme –JACK IN THE BOX
So much for being labeled a “wise guy” team last year. Jacksonville’s fall from grace resulted in a seven-game decline from 2007 to 2008. After the dust finally settled, the Jaguars logged SU losses as favorites on six different occasions, the most in the NFL last season. To add insult to injury, Jacksonville failed to land a single player on the Pro Bowl team for the first time since its inaugural year in 1995. The main culprit was cluster injuries to the offensive line, an issue that was addressed during the off-season. This much we know… head coach Jack Del Rio does not take to losing very well. Only twice did he fail to produce a winning record as a head coach in the NFL. He followed both of those losing years with winning efforts going 21-13 SU and 22-12 ATS, including an impressive 17-5 SU and ATS against non-division foes. One might be “wise” to follow that trend this year.
PLAY ON: as a road dog vs. Houston (9/27)
TENNESSEE
Team Theme – OPEN WIDE
There are losses and then there are big losses. The loss of Pro Bowl DT Albert Haynesworth is a mighty big loss for the Titans. As astutely pointed out by Matty B. in this year’s NFL preview on these pages, Tennessee was 28-11 with the big man in the lineup and only 3-7 without him. Couple Haynesworth’s departure with the loss of DC Jim Schwartz to the Detroit Lions and we’re talking about some big holes to fill. The other cause for concern is relying on the creaky arm of Kerry Collins for a second-straight season. Our best guess is Vince Young will likely resurface before Collins digests any more liquid remedy from the fountain of youth. It’s tough fading one of our favorite coaches in the NFL, but unless Jeff Fisher can fill a big hollow space on defense, we’re not interested in drilling for winners until we’re comfortable the cavity has been filled.
PLAY AGAINST: at Jacksonville (10/4)
AFC South Preview
By: Matt Baiungo
Here’s our preview of the AFC South. Just another reminder so you guys don’t think I’m giving you stale information. I told you that these previews were written way back in May. And some things have changed. But these quick-hitters will be a good tool to use and compare when you pick-up a copy of my Blitz Report Preseason Football Annual. I cover teams in that publication in much more depth and detail, and give you very specific ways to play teams I’ve isolated either to improve or decline. We’re talking about full page analysis, not five or six quick sentences. So be on the lookout on how you can get your copy with a special announcement email that will be sent out real soon.
AFC South
For the sixth consecutive year, the Indianapolis Colts won at least 12 games. That is truly a remarkable feat knowing the amount of parody we see in the NFL. The Colts were one and done in the playoffs after losing in overtime to the Chargers, and that was the last game coached by Tony Dungy. Longtime assistant Jim Caldwell takes over, and he already has a vision on the defensive side of the ball. The Colts will look to get away from their speed based unit, and look to get bigger in the front seven in hopes to shore up their numbers against the run. As long as Peyton Manning is under center, Indy will have an electric passing offense. But their running game is lacking, and their special teams may be one of the worst in the league. They addressed those two needs in the draft, so only time will tell if they pan out.
The Jacksonville Jaguars continued their pattern of alternating good and bad seasons after finishing 2008 at 5-11. Many expected the Jags to build off their stellar 2007, but cluster injuries on their offensive line prevented any improvement. The O-line is still an issue as both starting guards will be returning after missing all of ’08, and rookies will manning the tackle spots. Reports out of Jacksonville say that QB David Garrard has dropped 20 pounds, and if true, his mobility may be able to mask their shortcomings on the line. Wide receiver has also been a sore spot for the Jags over the last few years, and question marks still remain. Once their strength, the defensive line is now a liability unless their young talent makes a big jump. If their trend continues, look for the Jaguars to return to the playoffs in 2009.
One of the best defensive teams resided in Nashville last year. The Tennessee Titans held 12 of their 16 opponents to 14 points or less as running on this team was near impossible. But losing Albert Haynesworth could be a big factor in determining if the Titans can come close to being that immoveable force. With Haynesworth, the Titans went 28-11 over the last 3 years and just 3-7 without him which may indicate how much they will miss him. Their offense was consistent over the first 13 weeks of the season, but when the games really mattered, the Titans were held to 12 points or less in three of their final four games. Head coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best in the league, but he’ll miss DC Jim Schwartz who left for Detroit.
Spotlight Team
The team on the verge of a breakout season is the Houston Texans. This team is loaded with young talent on both sides of the ball, and they are finally playing up to their potential. Matt Schaub is a certified NFL quarterback that has all the tools to lead this team to big things in ’09. Their offensive line is now one of their strong suits, and after implementing Alex Gibbs’ zone blocking scheme last year, the Texans had a very good ground game with Steve Slaton. Andre Johnson is one of the best receivers in the game who just makes big plays week in and week out. Their defense does need to improve, especially in the secondary. But after bolstering their defensive line in the off-season, a lot of pressure on the back seven should be alleviated. Let’s call for the Texans to make the postseason in 2009.