AFC South Preview: Should Colts Backers Be Worried?
By DAVID CHAN
The interesting thing about this division is that every team has an offensive game-breaker who can single-handedly change the complexion of a game.
Jacksonville and Tennessee have two of the best running backs in the league with Maurice Jones-Drew and Chris Johnson, respectively. Houston has an exceptional passing game with Andre Johnson, one of the top receivers in the league, tight end Owen Daniels and quarterback Matt Schaub. And then there are the Indianapolis Colts who are in their own stratosphere with ace QB Peyton Manning and a plethora of talented receivers to connect with on any given down.
The question is do the Texans, Titans and Jaguars have the other pieces in place to complement their stars for some semblance of a run at the playoffs? Obviously, as long as Manning stays healthy, the defending AFC champion Colts will be the team to beat in the league in addition to the division.
Indianapolis Colts
Projected win total: 11
Prediction: Over
What’s new: Perhaps the biggest item is Clyde Christensen taking over for veteran Tom Moore at offensive assistant. As long as Christensen and Manning are on the same page, and they should be since Christensen was the Colts receivers coach since 2002, all will be well. Moore will also stay on as a senior offensive assistant. The Colts added some talent on the offensive line and at defense led by exceptional pass rusher Jerry Hughes, cornerback Kevin Thomas and offensive guard Andy Alleman.
What’s the same: Experts are wondering if Manning will be distracted being in the last year of his contract. Unlikely, since the guy historically has been all business when it comes to football. The big question is injury related - can all-world safety Bob Sanders stay healthy for a whole season and will receiver Anthony Gonzalez return to form after missing most of last season to a knee injury? Gonzalez and Reggie Wayne, who wants a new contract, leads a host of receivers that includes Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and tight end Dallas Clark.
Although the running game is a secondary option with the Colts, running backs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown need to improve on last season’s dismal output to take some pressure off Manning. One reason the Saints beat the Colts in the Super Bowl is they pretty much ignored the running game and dropped more defenders back into the Colts offensive secondary.
Key stat to remember: While the Colts’ offense averaged 363 yards a game in 2009, the running game ranked 31st in the league with only 80 yards a game.
Houston Texans
Projected win total: 8
Prediction: Over
What’s new: The Texans hope to replace cornerback Dunta Robinson (went to the Falcons) with drafted Kareem Jackson from Alabama. They added depth at running back by drafting Ben Tate from Auburn and added veteran kicker Neil Rackers. Running back Ryan Moats also moved on to Minnesota.
Defensive Rookie of the Year winner Brian Cushing will be suspended the first four games for violating the performance enhancing drug policy. The Texans also have a new offensive coordinator, Rick Dennison.
What’s the same: The passing game remains solid with Schaub, Johnson and Daniels who is coming back from a knee injury. Steve Slaton is still listed as the No. 1 running back but struggled with fumbleitis in 2009 and could be replaced by Tate if he has a solid preseason. The Texans also have defensive end stud Mario Williams.
Key stat to remember: Schaub threw for 4,770 yards and 29 touchdowns last season.
Tennessee Titans
Projected win total: 8.5
Prediction: Under
What’s new: The Titans addressed their biggest weakness of 2009 by improving their defense. The pass rush gets a boost with the additions of drafted Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech) and veteran defensive end Jason Babin.
Linebacker Will Witherspoon (from the Eagles) and cornerback Tye Hill should help. Defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch moved on to to Lions and tight end Alge Crumpler is with the Patriots. New receiver Damian Williams (Southern California) adds depth at that spot.
What’s the same: Morgan should help replace Vanden Bosch. The quarterback project known as Vince Young, his Dallas strip club antics withstanding, will have to take his game to another level if the Titans want to finish at least .500 or better. Kenny Britt can build on last season’s success to make a push to be the No. 1 receiver with Nate Washington and Justin Gage in the mix. The passing game needs to improve otherwise back Chris Johnson will likely get burned out.
Key stat to remember: The Titans gave fans hope for 2010 by going 8-2 in their last 10 games last season to finish 8-8.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected win total: 7
Prediction: Under
What’s new: Like the Titans, the Jaguars made an attempt to address their defensive holes in the offseason and could improve with new linebackers Kirk Morrison (Oakland), Fred Keiaho (Indianapolis) and Aaron Kampman (Green Bay). Four drafted linemen, including No. 10 pick Tyson Alualu (Califonia), adds depth on the “D.”
A wildcard addition could be receiver Kassim Osgood who came over from San Diego. Receiver Torry Holt has left for the Patriots. The Jags also lost a big presence in defensive tackle John Henderson was cut (for financial reasons) and went to Oakland.
What’s the same: Running back Maurice Jones-Drew and quarterback David Garrard are the standouts in an otherwise mediocre offensive squad.
Garrard isn’t given a lot of love by NFL analysts and it’s unlikely he can lead any team to the Super Bowl. But he did throw for nearly 3,600 yards and 15 touchdowns last season despite no depth at wide receiver.
Jones-Drew, as great as he is, needs help to take defensive pressure off him. Once you get past receiver Mike Sims-Walker, the position is pretty thin. This is where Osgood comes in and should make an immediate impact.
Another weakness that still needs to be addressed on this team is the offensive line, which allowed 44 sacks last season.
Key stat to remember: The Jags’ defense was ranked 28th in sacks last season with 28.