AFC South Preview
By Marc Lawrence
Don’t look now, but it appears as if the South may be rising again.
Let’s put it another way. When quarterbacks go into battle they are the team’s Generals. Some are five-star material (Peyton Manning, 99.9 QB rating last season), others are in the process of earning their stripes (Matt Schaub, 98.6 QB rating in 2009).
As a result, teams in this division won more battles than they lost last season with Jacksonville the only losing team in the division (7-9).
Furthermore, since their inception in 2002, the AFC South has been a home dog haven, with its members going 50-31-1 ATS, including 18-6 when hosting a sub .500 opponent.
In addition, this division has not backed down a lick when squaring off against the big-bad NFC East, as they do this season, having gone 11-5 SU and ATS as a host, including 8-2 SU and ATS when the South has at least one victory on the season.
In this business, the bottom line is… the bottom line. The bottom line here: Look for the South to continue its surge in 2010.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
HOUSTON
TEAM THEME: THE ‘P’ WORD
No longer a maiden, Houston broke on through to the other side when it recorded the first winning season in its franchise history last year. The signs were there and they delivered. The hiring of DC Dom Capers, and eight-win seasons the previous two years, put the Texans in position to succeed. Now they hunger for more. Granted, along with the Titans, they will face the toughest opponent strength of schedule in the league in 2010. But with QB Matt Schaub coming into his own, and possessing arguably the best receiver in the league in Andre Johnson (topped the league in receiving yards last year with 1,569), it’s only logical that a 9-win team that suffered only one loss by more than eight points in 2009, would be pointing to the p - - - - - - s. (Hint: it’s an 8-letter word never heard in this area during this era). If they can’t say it, at least they can visualize it.
PLAY ON: as dog off BB losses vs. Jacksonville (11/14)
INDIANAPOLIS
TEAM THEME: JOCKEYING FOR A TITLE
With a dozen or more victories nine years running, it is no surprise to find the Colts installed as the pre-season favorite Super Bowl favorites. But, as you know from reading these pages, the bigger hurdle facing Peyton Manning and his mates is the dreaded ‘Super Bowl’ loser jinx they will be infected with in 2010. Given the fact that seven of the nine SB losers this decade failed to return to the playoffs the following season (kudos to Kurt Warner and the Cardinals on overcoming this pestilence last year), it appears the Colts may be in need of booster shots in order to overcome this epidemic. That shot might be the confidence this team owns knowing it was riding a 14-0 record, along with 23 regular season wins a in a row, before they took a late-season dive against the Jets last year, opting to rest starters in preparation for the playoffs. It could be déjà vu all over again this season.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Tennessee (1/2)
JACKSONVILLE
TEAM THEME: YOU DON’T KNOW JACK
Back-to-back losing seasons, including late season cave-ins both years, sent Jack Del Rio to the NFL draft with one thought in mind: beef up the ‘D.’ After watching the Jags post declining numbers across the board on the defensive side of the ball three years in a row, Del Rio proceeded to pick off four defensive linemen in a row. Along with the additions of veteran free agent LB Kirk Morrison, Oakland’s leading tackler the last five seasons (avg 126.5 tackles per year) and DE Aaron Kampman, a six-year starter with the Packers, the message was delivered loud and clear. The offense is in the capable hands of QB David Garrard and star RB Maurice Jones-Drew, aka ‘Pocket Hercules’, arguably the most complete back in the league. While they are building a team for the future, Del Rio’s goal is to win the division this year. What else would you expect from a coach that can’t stand losing.
PLAY ON: vs. Oakland (12/12) – *KEY off BB losses
TENNESSEE
TEAM THEME: THE YOUNG AND RESTLESS
After an 0-6 start behind fossil Kerry Collins last year, the Titans called on Vince Young and he delivered a much-needed remedy. Big time. An 8-2 conclusion to the 2009 season following the Bye Week stamped Young as the savior of this franchise. Not the team’s best player, just its knight in shining armor. RB Chris Johnson, who rushed for a league high 2,006 yards last year, nearly 600 yards more than his closest competitor (Stephen Jackson), is straightforwardly the Titans’ MVP. The Titans took a hit on the defensive line when they lost DE Kyle Vanden Bosch to free agency (Detroit) but made strides when they selected Derrick Morgan from Georgia Tech with their first pick in the NFL draft. Along with the Texans, Tennessee will face the toughest opponent strength of schedule in the league in 2010. If they don’t shore up the defense (slipped 77 YPG in 2009), they’ll likely care less about the rest of the slate.
PLAY ON: vs. Houston (12/19)
AFC South Preview
By: Sean Higgs
Indianapolis Colts - Another year another 13-3 season on tap. We all know what we are getting from this team. Colts will win a lot and go as far as their defense can take them. Peyton and his offense will be as prolific as ever and Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will be abusing opposing QBs.
Houston Texans - Is this the year the Texans step up to the plate. They closed out the year winning 4 straight after a 4 game slide to have a franchise best 9 win season. QB Matt Schaub stayed healthy and passed for a league best 4770 yards. This team normally starts slow, and with the Colts and Cowboys at home in 2 of their first 3 games, we will know if Houston has turned a corner.
Tennessee Titans - HC Jeff Fisher hopes for a better start to the year in 2010. Last year, the Titans opened up 0-6 including a 59-0 pasting at New England. Tennessee rallied after that loss and reeled off 5 straight and 8 of 10 to finish 8-8 on the year. We know RB Chris Johnson is a monster. QB Vince Young must take a huge leap this year to get his WRs going. The staple of past teams, the defense is in flux. I look for another 8-8 season from this team.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Coming off a 7-9 season, HC Jack Del Rio is clearly on the proverbial ‘hot seat.’ Del Rio needs to make the playoffs to keep his job, that isn’t happening. Unless Del Rio really can motivate this bunch he will be out of a job by their November bye week.
AFC South Preview
By Scott Rickenbach
Houston - The Texans passing attack has become ultra impressive. However, injuries along the offensive line early last season certainly played a role in a rushing attack that ended up finishing up among the worst in the league. Slaton's neck injury definitely played a role in the sharp decline of the running attack as well. The drafting of Tate showed that the Texans were certainly cognizant of the negative impact their poor rushing attack had on them last season. Houston defended the run well last year but, other than Mario Williams, the pass rush was an issue. That continues to hold back the defense but if they prove early on that the issue has been addressed properly for this season then we would not be surprised to see this team end up playoff bound.
Indianapolis - The Colts appear to be the prime example of a Super Bowl loser primed for a letdown in the following season. Sure their 14 game win streak last season was amazing but it's the way their season ended that will be remembered. That said, some "hangover effect" should be expected this season. The rushing attack of the Colts is still a concern. Defensively, Indianapolis dropped in their ability to defend the pass last season. The schedule for the Colts this season is also unkind and the pass protection and inability to open up holes on the ground shows that the offensive line has regressed. The entire league remembers the Colts 14-0 start last season and, in that sense, every opponent this season certainly has the Indy game circled. We look for a much more challenging regular season for the Colts this year and that means this division is likely to be a bunched up group this season.
Jacksonville - The Jags were 7-5 before dropping each of their last four games last season. We believe this team should be "right there" again this season and, this time, they are unlikely to falter late. The Jaguars did a good job in the draft in terms of adding a lot of talent and depth for the defensive line rotation. Also, the running game improved last season. With the house cleaning on defense and the fact that the Jaguars aren't expected to be a real threat this season, don't be surprised if they surprise some teams as well as some bettors early and often this season. This is the perfect set-up for a team to surprise after they were expected to do too much too soon last season and they ultimately disappointed their followers. With lower expectations this season, they don't face the same pressure as last season and the weight is off their shoulders.
Tennessee - After their solid run in '08 some key differences reared their ugly head in '09. Keep in mind they went to a defensive coordinator who was in his first year ever in that role. Also, the secondary fell victim to the injury bug. Additionally, going with Kerry Collins early in the season really hurt this team. The only thing that turned it around was when Vince Young took over at QB. The question now is how much of the momentum of the Titans strong 8-2 run can be carried into this season. We like the Titans willingness to go with youth on defense this year. Their poor defense (especially against the pass) buried this team last season. Look for a healthier secondary and good moves to speed and youth in the front seven to give this defense a much better look in '10. We feel Tennessee's second half momentum absolutely gives this team a good shot at a strong start out of the gate this season. With Fisher at head coach, the Titans should be a threat in the AFC South as he continues to be a top leader in this league.